Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

ACitizenErased

rm212 wrote: »

Only a small amount, they confirmed previously. This is wishful thinking.

20-30% of the backlog was handled by Irish labs. Testing centres have been virtually empty for the past week.

Jim_Hodge

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

Death rate is increasing too.

More testing doesn't increase your death rate...

But the death rate will continue to climb even when new cases reduce. Patients can be many weeks fighting for their lives.

This has been stated over and over again.

spookwoman

Beasty wrote: »

I'm really not sure about that. It seems to be a matter of more results coming through. As has been stated many times before it's deaths, ICU and hospital numbers that are more indicative of the spread of this, rather than a figure that's a product of the number of tests undertaken rather than the number infected

Lets hope it's that and not down to the muppets who can't stay at home

branie2

I'd say we're at the peak now, or getting close to it.

easypazz

Between increased number of daily tests and eating into the backlog we are seeing a higher level of new cases.

This week should still see the worst of it behind us.

rm212

I remember a lot of posters recently saying, “oh the number of new cases is not increasing, that’s good, the higher deaths is expected because we had an increase in cases last week”. Now the narrative is, “oh the deaths are staying steady and possibly decreasing slightly, more cases are just because more testing!” Which one is it?

I swear, anything to fit the narrative that we’re over it and ready to lift restrictions...

When is the next day,we are likely to see no.deaths or new cases??

We arent out of this,until then

Gretas Gonna Get Ya!

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

More testing is always going to find more cases, for a while yet.

But our death rate is climbing up too.

is_that_so

ACitizenErased wrote: »

20-30% of the backlog was handled by Irish labs. Testing centres have been virtually empty for the past week.

They will be considering making the definition broader over the next week once they feel they have the testing system ready to go.

KiKi III

branie2 wrote: »

I'd say we're at the peak now, or getting close to it.

What are you basing that on?

timmy_mallet

timmy_mallet wrote: »

Completely agree, the man is so utterly inept and ineffectual in the role, it's a waste of time. Bypass him. Ignore his daily press comedy routine and get on with real business instead of his reality TV sideshow.

Problem is that his reality TV sideshow causes issues outside of the states.

Mwengwe

Ivy Big Looter wrote: »

Cases surely need to be dropping by tomorrow. I thought the peak was meant to be last week?! How can more people be getting this if we all stuck indoors!?

Because we haven't. It's easy to spend time online and think everyone is on the same page but there's a lot of irresponsible people out there.

lbj666

is_that_so wrote: »

They are near the end of that backlog. He did say that the positivity rate is quite constant.

We will get a proper of reflection of new cases per day one the backlog is cleared, but we can't be waiting for a week or so to see a trend.
They really need a graph for confirmed cases vs date swabbed/or refered to really get any information on trends of tests so far.

I presume the non German tests are from a backlog too?

ACitizenErased

is_that_so wrote: »

They will be considering making the definition broader over the next week once they feel they have the testing system ready to go.

They just said that's going to happen next week because the backlog is cleared after tomorrow. You genuinely cannot judge how we are doing based on daily cases when such a massive backlog existed.

Duke of Url

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

But our death rate is climbing up too.

Apparently you are supposed to look at the bright side.

Mwengwe

Deleted User wrote: »

When is the next day,we are likely to see no.deaths or new cases??

We arent out of this,until then

Day of a universal vaccine

timmy_mallet

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

But our death rate is climbing up too.

Which means what?

fritzelly

rm212 wrote: »

I remember a lot of posters recently saying, “oh the number of new cases is not increasing, that’s good, the higher deaths is expected because we had an increase in cases last week”. Now the narrative is, “oh the deaths are staying steady and possibly decreasing slightly, more cases are just because more testing!” Which one is it?

I swear, anything to fit the narrative that we’re over it and ready to lift restrictions...

Many say the new cases don't matter
But every 100 cases is 20 in hospital, 5 on ventilators and 2 deaths

rm212

ACitizenErased wrote: »

You realise that part of the backlog is part of the Irish total? We didn't send the entire backlog to Germany.

Among the backlog, there statistically shouldn’t be a huge difference in the % of positive cases from day to day, if the Irish lab is handling 20-30% per day. Those backlog samples range across a long time period and should be averaging out in terms of positives per day. So if our overall number of Irish lab confirmed cases is increasing, it is much more likely that the 70%-80% of fresh tests are making up the majority of that increase.

timmy_mallet

Mwengwe wrote: »

Day of a universal vaccine

Which is never.

antodeco

The one thing I will say, is that our numbers do seem to be accurate. Of all those cases that came back from Germany, you would assume none of them were hospitalised, as Id assume if they were bad, they have been tested in the hospitals here quite quickly. So in my opinion. having 400+ cases come back from Germany today means that 400+ people were not hopsitalised from these.

Id rather have 10000 cases a day and no hospitalisations/deaths. That way it will burn through the population quickly.

lbj666

Mwengwe wrote: »

Because we haven't. It's easy to spend time online and think everyone is on the same page but there's a lot of irresponsible people out there.

The reproduction rate has dropped from 3 to 1 though. We haven't seen that reflected in no. of cases yet because the backlog has totally muddied the waters .

smelly sock

spookwoman wrote: »

Lets hope it's that and not down to the muppets who can't stay at home

People need to go out. Get over it.

Quantum Erasure

Mwengwe wrote: »

Because we haven't. It's easy to spend time online and think everyone is on the same page but there's a lot of irresponsible people out there.

or essential workers, or people doing a weekly shop... the 'lockdown' was always only meant to slow the spread, flatten the curve, it was never meant to stop it fully.

is_that_so

lbj666 wrote: »

We will get a proper of reflection of new cases per day one the backlog is cleared, but we can't be waiting for a week or so to see a trend.
They really need a graph for confirmed cases vs date swabbed/or refered to really get any information on trends of tests so far.

I presume the non German tests are from a backlog too?

Mostly ongoing on the Irish ones I think. Backlog aside, we are now more or less up to date on testing I believe.

branie2

KiKi III wrote: »

What are you basing that on?

the number of deaths

s1ippy

Iamabeliever wrote: »

Does anyone have any knowledge of how hospitals are coping ? - there is obviously a larger influx of covid patient but what about non covid patients requiring treatment.

From the press conference, people just aren't going in. From this article, many likely dying at home.
https://www.thejournal.ie/covid-19-deaths-5073495-Apr2020/

Gretas Gonna Get Ya!

Duke of Url wrote: »

Apparently you are supposed to look at the bright side.

Yes, always...

Sure they're only old people dying anyway, right?

Look on the brightside, at least it's not that 34 year old around the corner from you... oh wait

marno21

Tony H said there that there has been an increase in testing. That's some of the reason behind the increased cases.

Those who are concerned about the death rate increasing, please take the time to research the lag between infection, onset of symptoms and death. It has been repeated many times on this thread.

lbj666

lbj666 wrote: »

The reproduction rate has dropped from 3 to 1 though. We haven't seen that reflected in no. of cases yet because the backlog has totally muddied the waters .

If its taking 7 to 10 days to show sythoms....we should in theory,now have nearly only cases spread in houses??


Why is it still going up?

skallywag

branie2 wrote: »

the number of deaths

Over what, a few days?!

You need much more data before you can reach such a conclusion.

ACitizenErased

Deleted User wrote: »

If its taking 7 to 10 days to show sythoms....we should in theory,now have nearly only cases spread in houses??


Why is it still going up?

Because there is a backlog.... how many times has this been said

ACitizenErased

skallywag wrote: »

Over what, a few days?!

You need much more data before you can reach such a conclusion.

Our ICU numbers are dropping for the second day in a row. I think we're on the opposite side of the curve.

lbj666

fritzelly wrote: »

Many say the new cases don't matter
But every 100 cases is 20 in hospital, 5 on ventilators and 2 deaths

It's not that they don't matter, many here are making a flawed assessment of the trend of new cases which are scewed by the backlog,

ACitizenErased

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Because there is a backlog.... how many times has this been said

We have 657 cases,from.here....thought all.backlog was away to germany??

Were those 657 infected from since start of lockdown or not?

skallywag

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Our ICU numbers are dropping for the second day in a row. I think we're on the opposite side of the curve.

It is far to early to say that. If the trend continues in one to two weeks, then certainly.

You cannot look at a statistics with one or two days worth of numbers.

ACitizenErased

Deleted User wrote: »

We have 657 cases,from.here....thought all.backlog was away to germany??

Were those 657 from since start of lockdown or not?

60-70% of the backlog went to Germany, the rest was dealt with here.

is_that_so

rm212 wrote: »

I remember a lot of posters recently saying, “oh the number of new cases is not increasing, that’s good, the higher deaths is expected because we had an increase in cases last week”. Now the narrative is, “oh the deaths are staying steady and possibly decreasing slightly, more cases are just because more testing!” Which one is it?

I swear, anything to fit the narrative that we’re over it and ready to lift restrictions...

Numbers into hospital, numbers in ICU and deaths are what really matter. Higher new cases is less of a cause of alarm now as it just means more testing. In time that should plateau and begins to drop.

coastwatch

Deleted User wrote: »

If its taking 7 to 10 days to show sythoms....we should in theory,now have nearly only cases spread in houses??


Why is it still going up?

Spread in nursing homes and long term residential settings.
The CMO said they have seen a big fall off in GP referrals for testing, so much lower community spread.

is_that_so

skallywag wrote: »

It is far to early to say that. If the trend continues in one to two weeks, then certainly.

You cannot look at a statistics with one or two days worth of numbers.

It has risen but has been steady for a while and has never got to a point which would put the system under pressure.

Gretas Gonna Get Ya!

marno21 wrote: »

Tony H said there that there has been an increase in testing. That's some of the reason behind the increased cases.

Those who are concerned about the death rate increasing, please take the time to research the lag between infection, onset of symptoms and death. It has been repeated many times on this thread.

Increases in cases will produce an increase in deaths... statistically speaking.

Whether they came from an Irish lab or a German lab, or there is a backlog... or the tests are 2 weeks old... statistically none of that is really important. More cases will produce more deaths. And that is exactly what we're witnessing.

Kermit.de.frog

rm212 wrote: »

What are you talking about? The deaths may be a couple down but they’ve been fluctuating around the same amount for some time now, but this is the highest new cases in one day, is it not?

Yes, 657 new cases is the highest so far.

We face a serious period ahead and there is no getting away from it.

Gael23

Someone aged 105 has died in a nursing home. What a horrible way for it to end after such a long life

walshb

Anyone else getting fed up with the daily updates now? Covid fatigue really kicking in for me...

Holohan must have a right pain in his bollix with it..

eagle eye

easypazz wrote:

This week should still see the worst of it behind us.

branie2 wrote:

I'd say we're at the peak now, or getting close to it.

I'm seeing these posts every day for the last three weeks.

Mwengwe wrote:

Day of a universal vaccine

We don't have to wait for a vaccine to get back to normal. We need a medicine that prevents the symptoms from getting out of hand. A vaccine will take until mid to late 2021 at the earliest, a medicine could be available by June.

EDit

Deleted User wrote: »

If its taking 7 to 10 days to show sythoms....we should in theory,now have nearly only cases spread in houses??


Why is it still going up?

Not everyone is in their houses. Lots of folk (doctors, nurses, postmen, binmen, delivery drivers, people Working in food shops or food production etc.) are going out and, while I’m sure they are doing their best to social distance and all that, transmissions will happen

Tony EH

growleaves wrote: »

You don't know what you're talking about.

There have been 1-2 millions of deaths from minor 20th century pandemics such as the 1957-58 pandemic.

So far covid-19 has claimed 127,000 lives.

Only projections of fears and assumptions make covid comparable to the Spanish Flu which killed fifty million.

In terms or spread RATE and mortality RATE, Covid-19 has been worse than the 57-58 flu. This may get better as we tackle the virus and we might not see deaths in the millions. Hopefully that's the case.

However, as an example, in the course of over 2 years H2N2 killed just under 30,000 people in Britain. In the three months since Covid-19 hit UK shores, it has killed nearly 13,000.

Your mistake is that you're simply looking at the final death toll of something that was in effect in one form or another for years and failing to take into account other contexts.

We may turn a corner and get this thing under control in the next few months and minimise its effects and if that's the case, we can all be thankful. But right now, it's being rightfully compared to the pandemic that occurred at the end of WWI, because not taking it that seriously is a bad idea indeed.

Ace2007

growleaves wrote: »

Its literally the age at which you are considered an old age pensioner in this country.

Stage pension age is 66,

But that doesn't mean your elderly does it? Would you consider a 66 year old as elderly - think your family and friends now

DaveCliftonAP

rm212 wrote: »

I remember a lot of posters recently saying, “oh the number of new cases is not increasing, that’s good, the higher deaths is expected because we had an increase in cases last week”. Now the narrative is, “oh the deaths are staying steady and possibly decreasing slightly, more cases are just because more testing!” Which one is it?

I swear, anything to fit the narrative that we’re over it and ready to lift restrictions...

Both statements can be true.

Ace2007

branie2 wrote: »

I'd say we're at the peak now, or getting close to it.

I thought we were at the peak last week from reading comments, are we sure that it's now, like it can't be next week or the week after, or the month after that?