Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

Quantum Erasure

growleaves wrote: »

The huge worldwide reaction to this pandemic stemmed from taking the models of Dr. Fauci and Dr. Ferguson (of Imperial College London) as normative.

So if Dr. Fauci is now revising his figures downwards - what does that tell us?

Is he minimising the concerns that he himself raised ?.

.

uncleoswald wrote: »

But that number will only be achieved because of the unprecedented lockdown. What would the figure be without a lockdown?

What point are you even trying to make?

growleaves

But that number will only be achieved because of the unprecedented lockdown. What would the figure be without a lockdown?

The countries which refused to lock down are not being wiped out.

What point are you even trying to make?

The point that comparing this pandemic with the deadliest pandemics in history is unwarranted, or at least premature in the extreme.

joe40

Mr.S wrote: »

Why are we still looking at cases in isolation though. Do we still follow Spains trend when we look at ICU admissions and deaths?

Exactly, surely the death rate is a better measure of how we're doing, and so far we're much better than the UK per capital. Not sure about comparison with other countries.

Seamai

RobertKK wrote: »

Traveller funerals are now an issue, 150 people at one funeral.

Quite a few travelled over from London WTF! but then the normal rules don't apply to Travellers, do they? Will anyone get their knuckles rapt over this? I very much doubt it.

jobeenfitz

shocksy wrote: »

It doesn't matter if they had an underlying condition ffs. They still lost their lives. I don't know why people are hung up on underlying conditions. It's like some of you's are happy to write off anyone with an underlying condition.

I think you wrote this without thinking? I'm sure the poster wasn't happy to write anyone off. He made a statement that there may be underline conditions.

I think some of these Pseudo-shocked posts are people wanting to look great, in a mother Theresa kinda way and to get likes.

Its just an opinion, I could be wrong?

These type of posts p1ss me off.

Iamabeliever

rm212 wrote: »

Scary how closely we’re following Spain’s trend...

Is that deaths?

JP Liz V1

paddythere wrote: »

Fair play to ze German for helping us out. They really have their **** together regarding this whole thing. It will probably be them who develop the vaccine too. A lot to be learned from them about how to run a country properly

What's the numbers in Germany like now?

10000maniacs

rm212 wrote: »

Scary how closely we’re following Spain’s trend...

Now who still thinks it was a great idea to spend a week in Cheltenham? The were a lot of yay sayers on this forum a month ago. Makes me sick to think about what those fools have done to this country.

Mwengwe

jobeenfitz wrote: »

I think you wrote this without thinking? I'm sure the poster wasn't happy to write anyone off. He made a statement that there may be underline conditions.

I think some of these Pseudo-shocked posts are people wanting to look great, in a mother Theresa kinda way and to get likes.

Its just an opinion, I could be wrong?

These type of posts p1ss me off.

I think that's unfair, I have a similar reaction to those 'underlying condition' posts - I can understand why people do it, but I also don't think people realise how it comes across. I try to bite my tongue most of the time. It's not a virtue-signalling thing, it genuinely does seem very disrespectful to the deceased to me to be seeking out photos to ascertain whether they were obese or not. Maybe it's just me? Can you not see that?

Another thing - people have said that it comforts them somewhat to know there was an underlying condition. Yet in the next breath they'll be saying 'well maybe they had an underlying condition they didn't know about!' At which point, where's the comfort? Any of us could have an underlying condition we don't know about!

rm212

Iamabeliever wrote: »

Is that deaths?

Well, it will certainly result in them if our cases continue to climb like that

Gretas Gonna Get Ya!

growleaves wrote: »

The huge worldwide reaction to this pandemic stemmed from taking the models of Dr. Fauci and Dr. Ferguson (of Imperial College London) as normative.

So if Dr. Fauci is now revising his figures downwards - what does that tell us?

Is he minimising the concerns that he himself raised ?

I get that people don't want to gamble lives away but its seriously time to wise up. The medical experts who predicted that this would be a deadly catastrophe of once-in-a-century significance have already walked back those predictions and revised their models downwards. All that's left of those initial predictions are the emotional investment that people have in them.

And what do you think experts and leaders do, when they realise that something could have the potential to kill millions of people?

They react with appropriate measures to decrease it's impact... which is exactly what the world has tried to do. (to varying degrees of success in different countries)

You are suggesting that they were wrong in their predictions, simply because we are not currently experiencing those originally predicted numbers... did you think those predictions were best case scenario? They are usually worst case scenario - without appropriate preventative measures in place.

These experts need to get people to listen to them, and heed the advice and warnings. So obviously they are going to highlight the worst case scenarios, just in case leaders don't take it seriously!

growleaves

The problem with your analysis is when you remove counter measures such as the mitigation policies.

It's had an enormous impact on restricting and delaying spread and Fauci stresses at every opportunity.

Bear in mind that the initial predictions both from the Fauci-Birx team and Imperial College London models included social distancing in their models. There was to be millions of deaths *with* mitigation policies.

We're going to able to make comparisons with states that didn't lock down when the dust settles.

Gooey Looey

RobertKK wrote: »

Traveller funerals are now an issue, 150 people at one funeral.

I'd feel sorry for the poor virus if it picked one of them as host

nacho libre

Duke of Url wrote: »

Apparently you are supposed to look at the bright side.

Well a bright side to me is that ICU are not being overwhelmed, and doctor and nurses are not having to play God by deciding who lives or dies. Of course that;s cold comfort to many familes tonight- just as it has been over the last month, but the stark reality is many more families are being spared that grief because we did not adopt the same approach as other countries like the UK. I'm not denying that we made mistakes by allowing people go to Cheltenham, keeping pubs open, and not closing Knock airport sooner, but thank goodness we axed the st patricks days parade. What a cluster**** we would have on our hands now if we did not.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

Ace2007 wrote: »

that 4 under the age of 34 now?

I thought this old killed the elderly what's happening?

That was never, ever said. You can be immunocompromised at any age. It was elderly and/or immunocompromised people most at risk, always.

Kermit.de.frog

France reports 1,438 new deaths from coronavirus (total 17,167) and 4,560 new cases.

Snow Garden

Seamai wrote: »

Quite a few travelled over from London WTF! but then the normal rules don't apply to Travellers, do they? Will anyone get their knuckles rapt over this? I very much doubt it.

With your use of the word 'rapt' its very hard to say...

johnfás

rm212 wrote: »

Scary how closely we’re following Spain’s trend...

Our death rate is 4.5 times less than Spain at 83.65 per million compared to 390.7 per million.

It is a function of increased testing that you have more cases.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

shocksy wrote: »

It doesn't matter if they had an underlying condition ffs. They still lost their lives. I don't know why people are hung up on underlying conditions. It's like some of you's are happy to write off anyone with an underlying condition.

Because there's always comments along the lines of "I thought it was only the elderly" when it was always emphasised that people with underlying conditions of ANY age were high risk. For as long as people aren't getting that, it will be mentioned. I have an underlying condition and I'm not remotely offended by this being pointed out.

uncleoswald

growleaves wrote: »

The countries which refused to lock down are not being wiped out.

There are so many factors at play, population density, pre-existing pandemic infrastructure, level of tourism/travel in the weeks presiding the pandemic, it's extremely difficult to make like for like comparisons. What we can see though from places like Italy, Spain, New York is that if the virus becomes widespread the death toll is alarming. And Sweden's death toll is climbing rapidly.

growleaves wrote: »

The point that comparing this pandemic with the deadliest pandemics in history is unwarranted, or at least premature in the extreme.

And any comparison with the normal flu, particularly when comparing death counts but not taking the mitigating effect of the lockdowns into account, are stupid in the extreme

Iamabeliever

rm212 wrote: »

Well, it will certainly result in them if our cases continue to climb like that

Not true. Cases result from testing. Spain unfortunately havent done near enough relative Ireland

bekker

Still includes one death that was rescinded by HSE but not allocated to an area.

rm212

johnfás wrote: »

Our death rate is 4.5 times less than Spain at 83.65 per million compared to 390.7 per million.

It is a function of increased testing that you have more cases.

Did I mention anything about death rate or how we are doing in deaths compared to Spain? No, I said it was scary how closely our trend graph of cases is following Spain’s; nothing more, nothing less. But while we are at it, it is a function of increased cases that you have more deaths, just so you know.

rm212

Iamabeliever wrote: »

Not true. Cases result from testing. Spain unfortunately havent done near enough relative Ireland

Are you telling me that deaths don’t result from cases? And if our cases continue to increase, we won’t have more deaths? Because all I said was that increased cases will result in more deaths.

tobefrank321

Well my fears about the Travelling Community continuing to go back and forth to the UK and London in particular were well founded. Rules don't apply to some.

Danzy

Seamai wrote: »

Quite a few travelled over from London WTF! but then the normal rules don't apply to Travellers, do they? Will anyone get their knuckles rapt over this? I very much doubt it.

It's career suicide to call them to order.

Paddy Joe McDonagh is ethnically different now to my neighbour Paddy Joe McDonagh.

moceri

Seamai wrote: »

Quite a few travelled over from London WTF! but then the normal rules don't apply to Travellers, do they? Will anyone get their knuckles rapt over this? I very much doubt it.

or as Martin Collins would have us all believe, it is just an assertion of cultural identity...i.e. the rules don't apply to us.

UrbanFret

10000maniacs wrote: »

Now who still thinks it was a great idea to spend a week in Cheltenham? The were a lot of yay sayers on this forum a month ago. Makes me sick to think about what those fools have done to this country.

So it's been confirmed that these cases are related to travelling to Cheltenham. Link please.

keynes

Tony EH wrote: »

Unfortunately, he can't just be ignored when his actions are making things worse and not better. If he was some tin pot clown in some insignificant backwater, it would be fine to so. But, alas, he's not.

Correct: Holohan should have advised against Cheltenham, flights from Milan etc much earlier. Leaving aside the blunders with nursing homes, everything he has done has been reactive

Jim_Hodge

rm212 wrote: »

Did I mention anything about death rate or how we are doing in deaths compared to Spain? No, I said it was scary how closely our trend graph of cases is following Spain’s; nothing more, nothing less. But while we are at it, it is a function of increased cases that you have more deaths, just so you know.

The trend with this virus will be more or less the same in many countries. What matters is that a country can keep the level of infection within manageable levels for their health service to cope. More cases does not necessarily lead to a pro rata increase in deaths, if the health service can maintain treatment levels.

Talisman

growleaves wrote: »

So if Dr. Fauci is now revising his figures downwards - what does that tell us?

Preventative measures save lives.

10000maniacs

UrbanFret wrote: »

So it's been confirmed that these cases are related to travelling to Cheltenham. Link please.

You prove to me that they didn't bring the virus back first. Link please.
It was moronic for thousands of Irish to head over as the virus was already rampant over there.

tobefrank321

moceri wrote: »

or as Martin Collins would have us all believe, it is just an assertion of cultural identity...i.e. the rules don't apply to us.

Ah but sure they are all isolating for 2 weeks except when they turn up en masse at funerals. Expect a spike in positive cases in Birr in the next few weeks.

joe_99

rm212 wrote: »

Scary how closely we’re following Spain’s trend...

How is our death rate and our hospitals fairing compared up Spain?

Are we testing more?

jobeenfitz

Mwengwe wrote: »

I think that's unfair, I have a similar reaction to those 'underlying condition' posts - I can understand why people do it, but I also don't think people realise how it comes across. I try to bite my tongue most of the time. It's not a virtue-signalling thing, it genuinely does seem very disrespectful to the deceased to me to be seeking out photos to ascertain whether they were obese or not. Maybe it's just me? Can you not see that?

Another thing - people have said that it comforts them somewhat to know there was an underlying condition. Yet in the next breath they'll be saying 'well maybe they had an underlying condition they didn't know about!' At which point, where's the comfort? Any of us could have an underlying condition we don't know about!

I think people say "underlying conditions" for different reasons. Because it's mostly older people dying. Maybe people say it hoping there are underlying conditions for fear that young healthy people are dying?

I don't think there is callousness involved in these posts but it doesn't stop people deciding there is and then over-reacting.

joe_99

growleaves wrote: »

The mortality rate is unknown, it is only projections which put it in worst-pandemic territory, and the predictions of millions of deaths from the models by Fauci and the ICL have been revised downwards to tens of thousands.

60,000 deaths in the US is Fauci's upper estimate. That's less than a particularly bad flu season (68,000 dead in one year).

Let me just repeat that, and try to let it sink in for a moment:

Dr. Anthony Fauci is predicting that covid-19 in the US will be less deadly than a harsh flu season.

Fauci: US death toll 'looks more like 60,000' than 100-200K estimate

Didn't realize the US shut down there entire economy during the flu seasons.

johnfás

rm212 wrote: »

Did I mention anything about death rate or how we are doing in deaths compared to Spain? No, I said it was scary how closely our trend graph of cases is following Spain’s; nothing more, nothing less. But while we are at it, it is a function of increased cases that you have more deaths, just so you know.

... steady on... but increased confirmed cases doesn’t mean more or less cases... again, it is a function of testing... if we are testing a multiple per capita of our population compared to Spain and only showing confirmed positive cases at the same rate of Spain, then we are doing a lot better than Spain... so that would be a good thing rather than a scary thing. The scary thing would be if our much greater degree of testing yielded a much higher proportion of confirmed cases.

growleaves

And any comparison with the normal flu, particularly when comparing death counts but not taking the mitigating effect of the lockdowns into account, are stupid in the extreme

Er no it isn't stupid at all because the alleged mitigating effects of the lockdown are unproven and unknown. Backed by no scientific evidence at all, only mere assertion.

What you're asking me to accept is that comparing a flu-like pandemic which kills 60,000 to a flu pandemic which kills 68,000 (a harsh flu year) is extremely stupid. But comparing a flu-like pandemic which kills 60,000 to one of the deadliest pandemics in history which which killed 50 million (Spanish Flu) is sound.

For the lockdown to be as effective as these projections point to there would need to be a huge discrepancy in deaths between countries that are locked-down and those countries that aren't.

If/When that discrepancy does not appear (as it hasn't so far), what will the posters here say?

UrbanFret

10000maniacs wrote: »

You prove to me that they didn't first. Link please.
It was moronic for thousands of Irish to head over as the virus was already rampant over there.

I don't need to link anything.
I'm not making any claim. you are .

keynes

UrbanFret wrote: »

So it's been confirmed that these cases are related to travelling to Cheltenham. Link please.

Really, where have you been the past month? One of many such cases:



https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/irishman-who-attended-cheltenham-festival-tests-positive-for-covid-19-39065160.html


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2020/04/01/andrew-parker-bowles-coronavirus-diagnosis-sparks-fears-royals/

realitycheque

growleaves wrote: »

The mortality rate is unknown, it is only projections which put it in worst-pandemic territory, and the predictions of millions of deaths from the models by Fauci and the ICL have been revised downwards to tens of thousands.

60,000 deaths in the US is Fauci's upper estimate. That's less than a particularly bad flu season (68,000 dead in one year).

Let me just repeat that, and try to let it sink in for a moment:

Careful now... you are not allowed to say things (even though it's fact) like this in this thread.
Majority here seem to want to stay in a lockdown for the rest of their lives.
Before the barrage of negativity towards me I want to point out that I DO NOT want to see anyone die young or old of this disease. I'm not denying it's a problem at all but I feel like our response is widely unproportionate. The level of economic damage this has and will cause is colossal....
People are going to die as a direct consequence of this lockdown, especially with elective surgeries and procedures not going ahead to the extent that they should.
Ireland and the majority of the word have taken the very very conservative approach and no-one can blame them for that, but as new data becomes available we should be adjusting the measures.
Its annoying that Ireland is going to be slow with the rollout of the antibody test, California has already started that process, this is key to understanding the the actual true death rate and how many of us actually have had it. This is the data we should be using to make decisions on lockdown measures.... the review there talking about with these tests is waste of valuable time, they should just get on with it using a test that's known to work to some degree (e.g like in korea/germany) and follow up concurrently with a valdation to the irish requirements. At least if they turn out to have been ok we wouldn't have wasted time.

All that being said we need the health services to be able to handle surges and I understand that time is necessary to get that set up...

(deep exhale...)

growleaves

Preventative measures save lives.

Mitigation policies were included in the original predictions.

Richard Hillman

I'm just trying to work out how a country of 5 million, that is nowhere near China or Italy is 19th on the global number of deaths. And we are 9th in terms of deaths per million when you exclude tiny nations.

People around the world when looking at the stats must be glancing through and thinking WTF is going on with Ireland?

wakka12

growleaves wrote: »

Er no it isn't stupid at all because the alleged mitigating effects of the lockdown are unproven and unknown. Backed by no scientific evidence at all, only mere assertion.

What you're asking me to accept is that comparing a flu-like pandemic which kills 60,000 to a flu pandemic which kills 68,000 (a harsh flu year) is extremely stupid. But comparing a flu-like pandemic which kills 60,000 to one of the deadliest pandemics in history which which killed 50 million (Spanish Flu) is sound.

For the lockdown to be as effective as these projections point to there would need to be a huge discrepancy in deaths between countries that are locked-down and those countries that aren't.

If/When that discrepancy does not appear (as it hasn't so far), what will the posters here say?

How is this discrepancy for you? In Lombardia, a province where a lockdown was slow to be implemented, 0.11%(not even including the thousands more who died at home) of the population have already died in just the last 5 weeks. In South Korea, somewhere where a major epidemic was stomped out very effectively and quickly, just a few hundred died

Lockdowns work, they save lives, if lockdowns in the USA didnt happen, many multiples of 68,000 would die

podgeandrodge

growleaves wrote: »

Its literally the age at which you are considered an old age pensioner in this country.

No not 65. 66.

And not an "old" age pension anymore.

Gretas Gonna Get Ya!

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

The trend with this virus will be more or less the same in many countries. What matters is that a country can keep the level of infection within manageable levels for their health service to cope. More cases does not necessarily lead to a pro rata increase in deaths, if the health service can maintain treatment levels.

Some countries are in the 'less' category - because they are doing a much better job handling this. They have been more proactive - and continue to be.

Hopefully our ICU's and hospitals won't become overwhelmed. But this still doesn't mean we won't have a rather large death total by the end of this... you can still have a slow and steady death rate at a reasonably high level - just like we have right now. Your ICU's don't necessarily need to be completely overwhelmed for this to happen over a longer period.

And statistically, more cases will result in more deaths. Some people seem to think our total cases and our daily number of cases, is somewhat irrelevant... it's really not. Those are all people who can spread the virus, and a certain % of them can get into trouble and need to be hospitalised. So total cases is important... we need to slow that number down a lot. It's not just about ICU and hospital admissions.

podgeandrodge

Beasty wrote: »

I'm really not sure about that. It seems to be a matter of more results coming through. As has been stated many times before it's deaths, ICU and hospital numbers that are more indicative of the spread of this, rather than a figure that's a product of the number of tests undertaken rather than the number infected

If the testing number remained broadly consistent as a percentage of the population would it be a reasonable indicator in terms of %? I ask because not everyone dies, goes to ICU or hospital so could consistent numbers of testing not be a better indicator of actual numbers infected? Not arguing, I don't know the answer to my question!

RugbyLad11

Ace2007 wrote: »

Is 65 considered old now?

You learn something new everyday

Of course it is considered old

tobefrank321

A guy gets arrested in Wicklow for going outside the 2km zone. But Travellers can travel from all over Ireland and the UK to a funeral. What a joke.

10000maniacs

UrbanFret wrote: »

I don't need to link anything.
I'm not making any claim. you are .

Moronic argument.
This is just one case from the 22nd of March in the Mirror. What about everyone else on the plane. Were they wearing masks?

Coronavirus Ireland: Irishman who went to Cheltenham Festival tests positive for COVID-19
Contact tracing has now begun to locate persons who were in close contact with the man.
More than 20,000 Irish horse racing enthusiasts attended the Cheltenham festival a fortnight ago. Hundreds of million of euro of betting occurs at the events in the Cotswolds.
It is not know where the man contacted Covid19. His home in Ireland is in relative proximity to two known clusters of virus detections of Covid19.