Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

growleaves

How is this discrepancy for you? In Lombardia, a province where a lockdown was slow to be implemented, 0.11%(but likely significantly more) of the population have already died in just the last 5 weeks. In South Korea, somewhere where a major epidemic was stomped out very effectively and quickly, just a few hundred died

There are also states where there has been no lockdown and very few deaths - Iowa, Belarus, Taiwan. (Though Taiwan had a unique set of restrictions of their own).

Danzy

Richard Hillman wrote: »

I'm just trying to work out how a country of 5 million, that is nowhere near China or Italy is 19th on the global number of deaths. And we are 9th in terms of deaths per million when you exclude tiny nations.

People around the world when looking at the stats must be glancing through and thinking WTF is going on with Ireland?

Reporting all the cases not just ones that die in hospital.

The Italian figures are believed to have peaked at over 3k a day, Britain is suspected to nearer to 2000 a day.

Figures take time to collate and in bigger countries, longer.

UrbanFret

keynes wrote: »

Really, where have you been the past month? One of many such cases:



https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/irishman-who-attended-cheltenham-festival-tests-positive-for-covid-19-39065160.html


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2020/04/01/andrew-parker-bowles-coronavirus-diagnosis-sparks-fears-royals/

Hardly a massive number that. We let 3000 Italians in the following Saturday. Our ports and airports are still open from UK. I'm not saying nobody contacted it there. The hysterical claims on here would make you think it was the main cause of the outbreak. Our nursing homes are riddled.our home carers through no fault of their own have infected people in their own homes. The fact is it's here and we need to deal with the here and now. We cannot change the past but what we do now can change the future.

Kermit.de.frog

growleaves wrote: »

What you're asking me to accept is that comparing a flu-like pandemic which kills 60,000 to a flu pandemic which kills 68,000 (a harsh flu year)

Where are you getting this 60,000 figure from?

growleaves

No not 65. 66.

And not an "old" age pension anymore.

Grand so. I guess Viagra is a game-changer anyways. So lets says that 65 years olds are spry.

joe_99

rm212 wrote: »

Well, it will certainly result in them if our cases continue to climb like that

More testing doesn't increase the number of deaths but it does increase the number of cases identified. You do understand that, right?

wakka12

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Where are you getting this 60,000 figure from?

It was a recent estimate by Fauci

growleaves

Where are you getting this 60,000 figure from?

It is Dr. Fauci's current estimate for US death toll, revised downward from higher estimates

Fauci: US death toll 'looks more like 60,000' than 100-200K estimate

uncleoswald

growleaves wrote: »

Er no it isn't stupid at all because the alleged mitigating effects of the lockdown are unproven and unknown. Backed by no scientific evidence at all, only mere assertion.

What you're asking me to accept is that comparing a flu-like pandemic which kills 60,000 to a flu pandemic which kills 68,000 (a harsh flu year) is extremely stupid. But comparing a flu-like pandemic which kills 60,000 to one of the deadliest pandemics in history which which killed 50 million (Spanish Flu) is sound.

I never compared it to the Spanish Flu just objected to the comparison with the flu.

And as for proof of the effects of the lockdown, I really can't see what point you are trying to make. In countries were the virus was widespread we see cases are eventually and thankfully coming down as a result of the lockdown. Are you claiming that the lockdown had no effect and the numbers would have decreased at the same rate themselves?

Travel around the world was largely stopped and as a result other countries have, hopefully, been spared an outbreak for the time being.

Kermit.de.frog

growleaves wrote: »

It is Dr. Fauci's current estimate for US death toll, revised downward from higher estimates

Fauci: US death toll 'looks more like 60,000' than 100-200K estimate

Do you know what the current US death toll is after a month and a quarter?

podgeandrodge

Gynoid wrote: »

Well that is not extreme at all.
Look, some things are reasonably obvious without the need for oodles of science as a back up.
Things like the instinct to cover ones nose and mouth in a pandemic of respiratory disease.
And things like breathing heavier while running, which is normal, creates a bigger slipstream in ones wake which would increase infectivity if one was asymptomatically carrying a viral load. It is elementary.

Exactly, as outlined in a study quoted by another poster:

"Blocken and his team looked at a very narrow simulation of the movement and evaporation of micro-droplets in airflow using computational fluid dynamics of a runner at different paces. They found that with a slipstream, a much larger distance is needed to avoid exposure - up to five metres (16 feet) at a fast walking pace."

"The results indicate that the largest exposure of the trailing person to droplets for walking and running is obtained when this person is in line and with leading person and positioned in the slipstream of this person.

"Exposure increases as the distance between leading and trailing person decreases.

"This suggests that avoiding substantial droplet exposure in the conditions of this study can be achieved by one of two actions: either by avoiding to walk or run in the slipstream of the leading person or by keeping larger social distances, where the distances increase with the walking or running speed.

"In the absence of headwind, tailwind and cross-wind, for walking fast at 4 km/h this distance is about 5 meters and for running at 14.4 km/h this distance is about 10 meters. Further work should consider the effect of headwind, tailwind and cross-wind, and different droplet spectra," the paper concluded.

https://www.cyclingnews.com/features/belgian-study-on-safe-distancing-while-exercising-goes-viral/

podgeandrodge

Iamabeliever wrote: »

Just putting it out - is it time to ban running in public?

Snow Garden wrote: »

No. It wont happen. Would be idiotic to do so.

Banning running would be chaotic. You could need to run for a number of very valid and essential reasons.

Now jogging is an entirely different matter.:P

DevilsHaircut

10000maniacs wrote: »

You prove to me that they didn't bring the virus back first. Link please.
It was moronic for thousands of Irish to head over as the virus was already rampant over there.

The first Irish Covid 19 genome sequenced was from a sample taken on 3 March (a week before Cheltenham started).

https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global?f_country=Ireland

Working class heroes

tobefrank321 wrote: »

A guy gets arrested in Wicklow for going outside the 2km zone. But Travellers can travel from all over Ireland and the UK to a funeral. What a joke.

Ffs stop talking bollox will ya.
Hundreds of middle class goons on Greystones beach today but as they are not travellers it’s grand. Eh?

And while I’m at it, the clowns at Cheltenham. Were they all arrested?

Blueshoe

tobefrank321 wrote: »

A guy gets arrested in Wicklow for going outside the 2km zone. But Travellers can travel from all over Ireland and the UK to a funeral. What a joke.

Where was or is the funeral?

autumnbelle

Offaly

(Vietnam) Had to make a health declaration today including whether or not I had been in the market around the corner at certain times going back as far as the 8th March. They have seven periods listed off. Tried to buy Panadol at the pharmacy earlier with my brother and got grilled since pharmacies are now meant to report any medication for fever.

Today was initially meant to be the end of the proper social distancing measures but have a bad feeling it's spreading a lot now. Hopefully not. Will find out whether or it's proactive or reactive in the coming days. Day 89 of no work.

10000maniacs

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

The first Irish Covid 19 genome sequenced was from a sample taken on 3 March (a week before Cheltenham started).

https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global?f_country=Ireland

So all cases in Ireland stemmed from this one genome sequence? OMG, pity the fool.

Fr Tod Umptious

Working class heroes wrote: »

Ffs stop talking bollox will ya.
Hundreds of middle class goons on Greystones beach today but as they are not travellers it’s grand. Eh?

And while I’m at it, the clowns at Cheltenham. Were they all arrested?

Restrictions were not in place during Cheltenham.

johnfás

Working class heroes wrote: »

And while I’m at it, the clowns at Cheltenham. Were they all arrested?

Well it wasn’t illegal at that stage so the comparator doesn’t hold.

smelly sock

MintyMagnum wrote: »

I didn't see him offering his customary condolences today?

Bad form really.

JP Liz V1

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Ah but sure they are all isolating for 2 weeks except when they turn up en masse at funerals. Expect a spike in positive cases in Birr in the next few weeks.

Was it over 100 at a funeral in Birr? Did the Gardai not have any control? The rules need to apply to everyone, how are they over here from UK, is flights and ferries still running?

DevilsHaircut

10000maniacs wrote: »

So all cases in Ireland stemmed from this one genome sequence? OMG, pity the fool.

You said: 'You prove to me that they didn't bring the virus back first. Link please.'

I gave you the link.

branie2

113 cases in Clare

Working class heroes

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

[/b]

Restrictions were not in place during Cheltenham.

Fair enough, advisories were in place.

Kermit.de.frog

branie2 wrote: »

113 cases in Clare

So that's everyone then? :P

Working class heroes

johnfás wrote: »

Well it wasn’t illegal at that stage so the comparator doesn’t hold.

I see you ignored the part about the beach.

DevilsHaircut

10000maniacs wrote: »

So all cases in Ireland stemmed from this one genome sequence? OMG, pity the fool.

And, no they didn't. 12 genomes sequenced from samples taken between 3 and 10 March (Cheltenham started on 10 March).

There were several separate 'introduction events'.

https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global?f_country=Ireland

10000maniacs

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

You said: 'You prove to me that they didn't bring the virus back first. Link please.'

I gave you the link.

The "first" in that sentence was a suggestion that you prove it "first". Not that it was the "first" case. Still pitying the fool.

Blueshoe

autumnbelle wrote: »

Offaly

Any link to that boss?

growleaves

I never compared it to the Spanish Flu just objected to the comparison with the flu.

I'm replying to so many posters that some of the points I was making have been confused.

According to WHO estimates, flu claims 650,000 lives a year. We may be in and around that territory. It isn't clear that we aren't. 1-2 million deaths would be comparable to harsh 20th century pandemics.

And as for proof of the effects of the lockdown, I really can't see what point you are trying to make. In countries were the virus was widespread we see cases are eventually and thankfully coming down as a result of the lockdown. Are you claiming that the lockdown had no effect and the numbers would have decreased at the same rate themselves?

Well I was originally replying to a poster who was projecting millions of deaths. If we get hundreds of thousands of deaths then we should be careful about saying that the lockdowns saved millions of lives since we may have only been on track for hundreds of thousands of deaths anyway.

The efficacy of the lockdown is unproven. At this stage it is possible the numbers would have decreased by the same amount, or was effective but not by a huge margin (and a huge positive difference will definitely be claimed by politicians both foreign and domestic).

Travel around the world was largely stopped and other countries have, hopefully, been spared an outbreak for the time being.

True. Travel restrictions and border control do seem to be necessary.

Neamhshuntasach

rm212 wrote: »

Are you telling me that deaths don’t result from cases? And if our cases continue to increase, we won’t have more deaths? Because all I said was that increased cases will result in more deaths.

Deaths will happen regardless of whether tests uncovered cases. We could test 50% less and still have the same number of deaths from it. The cases reported only come from the fact that there is more testing. The cases and deaths would still exist regardless. But only one of them would be known.

johnfás

Working class heroes wrote: »

I see you ignored the part about the beach.

I didn’t disagree with the bit about the beach so don’t see the relevance? People on the beach in Greystones should be arrested. But that doesn’t retrospectively mean it was illegal to go to Cheltenham , even if it should have been.

So, in short, your comparator didn’t hold. As I said.

caveat emptor

Mwengwe wrote: »

I think that's unfair, I have a similar reaction to those 'underlying condition' posts - I can understand why people do it, but I also don't think people realise how it comes across. I try to bite my tongue most of the time. It's not a virtue-signalling thing, it genuinely does seem very disrespectful to the deceased to me to be seeking out photos to ascertain whether they were obese or not. Maybe it's just me? Can you not see that?

Another thing - people have said that it comforts them somewhat to know there was an underlying condition. Yet in the next breath they'll be saying 'well maybe they had an underlying condition they didn't know about!' At which point, where's the comfort? Any of us could have an underlying condition we don't know about!

I agree. We all probably have an underlying condition that will explain away our death.

Great so many on here to throw stones in glass houses.

DevilsHaircut

10000maniacs wrote: »

The "first" in that sentence was a suggestion that you prove it "first". Not that it was the "first" case. Still pitying the fool.

It's virtually impossible to prove that anyone who travelled anywhere didn't 'bring back the virus'.

growleaves

Do you know what the current US death toll is after a month and a quarter?

But exponential increases do not (cannot) continue indefinitely and can and will at some point pivot into exponential decreases, as Dr. Fauci knows.

Mike3549

Neamhshuntasach wrote: »

Deaths will happen regardless of whether tests uncovered cases. We could test 50% less and still have the same number of deaths from it. The cases reported only come from the fact that there is more testing. The cases and deaths would still exist regardless. But only one of them would be known.

Actually we would have more deaths if we had less tests. If youre tested and confirmed, youre quarantines at home or hospital, treated properly, if not tested - you continue your daily life, spreading the virus everywhere

Bushmaster64

A quite long and protracted flat-ish curve for Ireland. Basically spreading out the cases and deaths which is what most countries were hoping for when they realised they couldn't stop the virus or contain it as such. Stop the spike and spread out the cases. It's still quite depressing when you see the same sort of figures every day without much improvement.

Same in the UK really. Apparently the field hospital is pretty much empty, so no spike.

Working class heroes

johnfás wrote: »

I didn’t disagree with the bit about the beach so don’t see the relevance? People on the beach in Greystones should be arrested. But that doesn’t retrospectively mean it was illegal to go to Cheltenham , even if it should have been.

So, in short, your comparator didn’t hold. As I said.

Imo it most certainly does hold. Legalities aside both were/are wrong and put public health in danger.

But I take your point.

10000maniacs

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

It's virtually impossible to prove that anyone who travelled anywhere didn't 'bring back the virus'.

wakka12

growleaves wrote: »

But exponential increases do not (cannot) continue indefinitely and can and will at some point pivot into exponential decreases, as Dr. Fauci knows.

Exponential decrease has not been observed in any european country with the harshest lockdowns, after more than a month in. USA will reach far more than 60,000 deaths. Will be almost 30,000 by tonight, and this doesnt include the number of nursing home deaths and home deaths. There are at least 4,000 unreported deaths in NYC alone

timmy_mallet

caveat emptor wrote: »

I agree. We all probably have an underlying condition that will explain away our death.

Great so many on here to throw stones in glass houses.

Known.

Kermit.de.frog

growleaves wrote: »

But exponential increases do not (cannot) continue indefinitely and can and will at some point pivot into exponential decreases, as Dr. Fauci knows.

Of course but there is a lot of space, a lot of uninfected hosts in the world for this to run rampant.

The US is at 28,000 deaths since the beginning of March so what do you reckon about that 60,000 projection you mention?

Then you mentioned 68,000 flu deaths. Let's leave aside the fact coronavirus is in addition to the flu, it is not influenza...and secondly the highest number of flu deaths in the US was circa 61,000 in the 17/18 season and it varies drastically mostly far lower than that.

So you are not comparing like with like.

fr336

Can anyone explain to me (or perhaps remind me, I'm tired) how we will be able to return to any pretence of normal life without potentially spiking the case rate again? Both in Ireland and where I am in UK (south England). It will have to happen regardless at some point as even someone like me who would always put lives over economy realises that there comes a point where this could all lead to a depression and god knows what else. So anyway back to my main point - how do we not just go back to square one if the borders are still open? All it takes is a handful of cases coming in from abroad to start up a cluster again. Or am I being really stupid and the long term effect of our lockdowns is that the majority of virus carriers will have got over it and now be immune? Will the post lockdown world still be fraught with risk but nowhere near as bad as where we were before it? I'm guessing ultimately we will all become compulsory mask wearers for a time.

DevilsHaircut

10000maniacs wrote: »

So all cases in Ireland stemmed from this one genome sequence? OMG, pity the fool.

Not really one for the science, are you?

Blueshoe

fr336 wrote: »

Can anyone explain to me (or perhaps remind me, I'm tired) how we will be able to return to any pretence of normal life without potentially spiking the case rate again? Both in Ireland and where I am in UK (south England). It will have to happen regardless at some point as even someone like me who would always put lives over economy realises that there comes a point where this could all lead to a depression and god knows what else. So anyway back to my main point - how do we not just go back to square one if the borders are still open? All it takes is a handful of cases coming in from abroad to start up a cluster again. Or am I being really stupid and the long term effect of our lockdowns is that the majority of virus carriers will have got over it and now be immune? Will the post lockdown world still be fraught with risk but nowhere near as bad as where we were before it? I'm guessing ultimately we will all become compulsory mask wearers for a time.

What is the situation with your privates hospitals over there. Have they been temporarily nationalised?

timmy_mallet

Working class heroes wrote: »

Ffs stop talking bollox will ya.
Hundreds of middle class goons on Greystones beach today but as they are not travellers it’s grand. Eh?

And while I’m at it, the clowns at Cheltenham. Were they all arrested?

How odd. Are all people 'middle class' (what does that even mean?) 'Goons', or would they be 'goons' if they weren't in that arbitrary class definition but still on the beach?

And if they live within 2km of a beach, why would they NOT be there getting their governments suggested exercise?

weisses

They should relax the lockdown for most of the country except for Dublin ... More then 50% of cases from there

timmy_mallet

weisses wrote: »

They should relax the lockdown for most of the country except for Dublin ... More then 50% of cases from there

Put wall up around it, ffs.

Keep the turf munching, baby eating savages from ever entering the promise land again.

tobefrank321

Blueshoe wrote: »

Where was or is the funeral?

Birr in Offaly.