Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

growleaves

The US is at 28,000 deaths since the beginning of March so what do you reckon about that 60,000 projection you mention?

That it may still be correct, though of course I don't claim to know that it is.

and it varies drastically mostly far lower than that

Which is why I've consistently used phrases like 'harsh flu season', 'bad flu year'.

So you are not comparing like with like.

There are no exact comparisons in medical statistics. I'm only mentioning it to provide context. If Fauci's prediction of 60,000 were correct than covid is as bad as a very bad flu year.

Iamabeliever

They should make all dubs wear face masks

deaglan1

Still cannot get my head around these stats - what are the Israelis doing that Deaths per 1 Million population = just 16% of ours.

fr336

Blueshoe wrote: »

What is the situation with your privates hospitals over there. Have they been temporarily nationalised?

Not nationalised but private hospitals have given their beds over to the NHS.

Cody montana

timmy_mallet wrote: »

Put wall up around it, ffs.

Keep the turf munching, baby eating savages from ever entering the promise land again.

Some of us chose that on our own free will.

timmy_mallet

deaglan1 wrote: »

Still cannot get my head around these stats - what are the Israelis doing that Deaths per 1 Million population = just 16% of ours.

Not as fat, smoke less, drink less? Healthier? Younger? Less pollution? Less chronic illness?

timmy_mallet

Cody montana wrote: »

Some of us chose that on our own free will.

Ha. Theres only one way to be certain, but.

joe_99

timmy_mallet wrote: »

Not as fat, smoke less, drink less? Healthier? Younger? Less pollution? Less chronic illness?

Different reporting parameters?

growleaves

Not as fat, smoke less, drink less? Healthier? Younger? Less pollution? Less chronic illness?

Definitely a younger population. Mandatory army service may mitigate against obesity, which is a huge chronic risk factor.

BattleCorp

deaglan1 wrote: »

Still cannot get my head around these stats - what are the Israelis doing that Deaths per 1 Million population = just 16% of ours.

This might sound stupid but could genetics play a part in a certain country having less deaths? Are some people genetically more resistant to the virus?

I know access to medical treatment is a huge factor in limiting the number of deaths but there are probably other factors too. Maybe Israel are doing a better job of shielding the most vulnerable so it could be stronger people catching it and therefore more likely to survive.

timmy_mallet

timmy_mallet wrote: »

Not as fat, smoke less, drink less? Healthier? Younger? Less pollution? Less chronic illness?

Better weather?

Loafing Oaf

deaglan1 wrote: »

Still cannot get my head around these stats - what are the Israelis doing that Deaths per 1 Million population = just 16% of ours.

Having a much warmer climate. Guessing they're testing much more extensively so their case total figure is a much closer approximation of reality...

jackboy

Wow, that is some article in the examiner stating that the HSE are giving false figures for positive cases. Information coming from a whistleblower nurse. I would expect the examiner to be pretty sure about their sources.

bodhrandude

How can a 23 year old die of it can they not resuscitate him and put on life support or something, Jesus. RIP.

Coyote

Number updated to match today's report, I have included the total numbers reported today
I have added the number died in the chart in yellow
recent cases growth
12-4-2020 4.8%
13-4-2020 5.46%
14-4-2020 5.15%
15-4-2020 5.55%

No Change in number


Slow Change


Big Drop in numbers


if we only grow at the rate of 7.8% this day next month we would have 4,000 deaths
if you wait till we are overloaded it's too late

I think this site is one of the best as it allows you to change and check the visualization of covid19
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
numbers on this site are a day old won't be updated till around midnight for ireland

Deaths by country

marno21

Obesity seems to be emerging as a major factor in the outcome of covid-19 cases. It seems a large majority of patients administered to intensive care have obesity as an underlying condition.

If this is the case, it will be useful going forward in assessing who is at risk from a severe dose of covid-19. Obesity must rank up there as being one of the easiest underlying conditions to diagnose and not an underlying condition that the patient could be unaware of.

wakka12

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Of course but there is a lot of space, a lot of uninfected hosts in the world for this to run rampant.

The US is at 28,000 deaths since the beginning of March so what do you reckon about that 60,000 projection you mention?

Then you mentioned 68,000 flu deaths. Let's leave aside the fact coronavirus is in addition to the flu, it is not influenza...and secondly the highest number of flu deaths in the US was circa 61,000 in the 17/18 season and it varies drastically mostly far lower than that.

So you are not comparing like with like.

The erroneous comparisons between flu and COVID need to stop, it is such a tiresome discussion at this stage.
Comparing total global influenza death tolls are just not valid because widespread community transmission has only become a recent phenomenon outside China in the last 6 or so weeks. And there is still no epidemics present within much of the planet despite it being a pandemic, unlike flu which operates throughout the globe.
Obersvations of the monthly mortality rates within areas of the world where there are noteable outbreaks give a much clearer picture of the effects this virus has compard to influenza.

Working class heroes

timmy_mallet wrote: »

How odd. Are all people 'middle class' (what does that even mean?) 'Goons', or would they be 'goons' if they weren't in that arbitrary class definition but still on the beach?

And if they live within 2km of a beach, why would they NOT be there getting their governments suggested exercise?

Firstly. Large public gatherings are banned. I would class this as such.
Secondly that was entirely my point. We can’t be painting an entire group of people with the same brush now, can we?.
This site is full of it and I’m surprised it took so long for that bias to emerge tbh.

khalessi

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/the-numbers-are-being-fudged-says-nurse-who-brands-testing-regime-an-omnishambles-994236.html

the-numbers-are-being-fudged-says-nurse-who-brands-testing-regime-an-omnishambles
interesting

JRant

deaglan1 wrote: »

Still cannot get my head around these stats - what are the Israelis doing that Deaths per 1 Million population = just 16% of ours.

They probably kept it out of nursing and residential homes while cocooning their elderly. 2 things we have utterly failed to do.

owlbethere

bodhrandude wrote: »

How can a 23 year old die of it can they not resuscitate him and put on life support or something, Jesus. RIP.

I don't know about Ireland but in the UK, when someone dies with this, they are not allowed to do the cpr in case the virus spits up into their faces.. Something like that anyways. When someone goes, that's it, they are gone.

PokeHerKing

growleaves wrote: »

That it may still be correct, though of course I don't claim to know that it is.



Which is why I've consistently used phrases like 'harsh flu season', 'bad flu year'.



There are no exact comparisons in medical statistics. I'm only mentioning it to provide context. If Fauci's prediction of 60,000 were correct than covid is as bad as a very bad flu year.

But they will have had to shut the country down just to try and keep the death rate to that of their very worst flu season totals.

Do people who post this crap not notice that giant fcuking elephant in that comparison!??

pc7

deaglan1 wrote: »

Still cannot get my head around these stats - what are the Israelis doing that Deaths per 1 Million population = just 16% of ours.

Perhaps they’ve kept it out of nursing homes, or maybe they don’t report deaths outside hospital.

fr336

owlbethere wrote: »

I don't know about Ireland but in the UK, when someone dies with this, they are not allowed to do the cpr in case the virus spits up into their faces.. Something like that anyways. When someone goes, that's it, they are gone.

Horrendous.

Gynoid

timmy_mallet wrote: »

Not as fat, smoke less, drink less? Healthier? Younger? Less pollution? Less chronic illness?

https://obesity.procon.org/global-obesity-levels/

Israel ranks higher than Ireland re obesity. What is really odd is how high NZ ranks and yet they do okay re covid.

stephenjmcd

jackboy wrote: »

Wow, that is some article in the examiner stating that the HSE are giving false figures for positive cases. Information coming from a whistleblower nurse. I would expect the examiner to be pretty sure about their sources.

Theres not a whole lot of substance to the article really, she says the German numbers have already been seen in hospitals, which literally everyone said might be the case, if someone was waiting for a result and got worse then they'd be in hosptial. Article also says testing needs to be sorted for any restrictions to be eased, that's also been said time and time again at the press conferences.

I know for a fact that the numbers in 2 of dublins major hospitals are what they're being stated as, given I've 2 family members working in them and they've said all along numbers are manageable at the moment.

Now maybe in the hosptial this women works in theres more cases but if hospitals were extremely overrun in general people would know about it.

All the same best of luck to her and her colleagues, hopefully we dont see huge numbers falling ill like in Cavan hospital.

smelly sock

Am i right in saying that the confirmed cases make up around 0.3% of the worlds population?

growleaves

But they will have had to shut the country down just to try and keep the death rate to that of their very worst flu season totals.

Do people who post this crap not notice that giant fcuking elephant in that comparison!??

This point has already been made to me about 20 times. Since I want people to get it, I don't mind repeating my response.

The efficacy of the lockdown is unproven and unknown. It has no scientific basis. The death tolls from states that didn't lock down is not significantly different from those that did, sometimes its much lower.

We're already hearing a raft of excuses: Social distancing is Swedish culture. Sweden is only comparable to other Nordic countries. Sweden are fudging their deaths. Taiwan and Belarus aren't comparable to Western Europe.

All the above excuses are ones I've heard today on boards. The fact that we're now deep into excuse-making territory makes me think this just might not be the next Black Death after all.

marno21

marno21 wrote: »

Obesity seems to be emerging as a major factor in the outcome of covid-19 cases. It seems a large majority of patients administered to intensive care have obesity as an underlying condition.

If this is the case, it will be useful going forward in assessing who is at risk from a severe dose of covid-19. Obesity must rank up there as being one of the easiest underlying conditions to diagnose and not an underlying condition that the patient could be unaware of.

The obesity factor, smoking factor, and lack of social distancing would put the Traveller community at the top of the list to be hit hard by this virus. Will be interesting to hear it explained why they haven't been hit. Not yet anyway.

Discodog

Finland have removed any restrictions on internal travel. No checkpoints & no questions.

stephenjmcd

Gynoid wrote: »

https://obesity.procon.org/global-obesity-levels/

Israel ranks higher than Ireland re obesity. What is really odd is how high NZ ranks and yet they do okay re covid.

Has obesity been proven to be a major contributing factor in deaths?
Sorry if this has already been answered, its just not an area I've looked at during this.

10000maniacs

timmy_mallet wrote: »

Not as fat, smoke less, drink less? Healthier? Younger? Less pollution? Less chronic illness?

Warmer climate? Better military lockdown? People being literally dragged off the street? Less porus border control?

Mic 1972

People in Dublin are out and about, including in my neighborhood, I don't see how the restrictions can be more relaxed than this
Today another 1k new cases, it's not a good sign

smelly sock

Mic 1972 wrote: »

People in Dublin are out and about, including in my neighborhood, I don't see how the restrictions can be more relaxed than this
Today another 1k new cases, it's not a good sign

Why? We know that this was projected as the peak. Relax. It was expected.

In another 3 weeks this will have come down.

I have been out and about too as have most of the people i know. Its about social distancing etc.

wakka12

smelly sock wrote: »

Am i right in saying that the confirmed cases make up around 0.3% of the worlds population?

0.3% of 8 billion is 24 million

2 million infections is about 0.025% of the world pop

growleaves

Has obesity been proven to be a major contributing factor in deaths?

NYU scientists: Largest US study of COVID-19 finds obesity the single biggest 'chronic' factor in New York City's hospitalizations

Mic 1972

Mic 1972 wrote: »

People in Dublin are out and about, including in my neighborhood, I don't see how the restrictions can be more relaxed than this
Today another 1k new cases, it's not a good sign

If everyone in Dublin went out for their alloxated 2km excerise at the same time the streets would be packed.
It's obviously a different scenario than a village in County Clare. Making more specific restrictions on those living in large cities makes logical sense.

BattleCorp

Deleted User wrote: »

The obesity factor, smoking factor, and lack of social distancing would put the Traveller community at the top of the list to be hit hard by this virus. Will be interesting to hear it explained why they haven't been hit. Not yet anyway.

They aren't social distancing down my way either. :mad:

Iamabeliever

growleaves wrote: »

This point has already been made to me about 20 times. Since I want people to get it, I don't mind repeating my response.

The efficacy of the lockdown is unproven and unknown. It has no scientific basis. The death tolls from states that didn't lock down is not significantly different from those that did, sometimes its much lower.

We're already hearing a raft of excuses: Social distancing is Swedish culture. Sweden is only comparable to other Nordic countries. Sweden are fudging their deaths. Taiwan and Belarus aren't comparable to Western Europe.

All the above excuses are ones I've heard today on boards. The fact that we're now deep into excuse-making territory makes me think this just might not be the next Black Death after all.

You sound like a vegan now.

Gynoid

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Has obesity been proven to be a major contributing factor in deaths?
Sorry if this has already been answered, its just not an area I've looked at during this.

Well apparently everyone sick who people see in the papers look fat. Anyways.. Funny thing is people say oh 70 or whatever % of people in hospital with this are overweight so it must mean you are more at risk if overweight. But I think when I see those percentages that MAYBE they are pro rata reflections of the general population which is about 70 or whatever % overweight. Note I said Maybe...no one is allowing me put on my nice doctors outfit tonight.

PokeHerKing

growleaves wrote: »

This point has already been made to me about 20 times. Since I want people to get it, I don't mind repeating my response.

The efficacy of the lockdown is unproven and unknown. It has no scientific basis. The death tolls from states that didn't lock down is not significantly different from those that did, sometimes its much lower.

We're already hearing a raft of excuses: Social distancing is Swedish culture. Sweden is only comparable to other Nordic countries. Sweden are fudging their deaths. Taiwan and Belarus aren't comparable to Western Europe.

All the above excuses are ones I've heard today on boards. The fact that we're now deep into excuse-making territory makes me think this just might not be the next Black Death after all.

Irelands death toll is at our very worst flu 'season' totals already. Note flu season, which is about 7 months long.

So in 6 weeks, 4 of which this country has shutdown virtually all indoor gatherings we've already matched a very bad 7 month period that would have absolutely no restrictions.

Your level of ignorance is pretty staggering.

What Username Guidelines

fr336 wrote: »

Can anyone explain to me (or perhaps remind me, I'm tired) how we will be able to return to any pretence of normal life without potentially spiking the case rate again? Both in Ireland and where I am in UK (south England). It will have to happen regardless at some point as even someone like me who would always put lives over economy realises that there comes a point where this could all lead to a depression and god knows what else. So anyway back to my main point - how do we not just go back to square one if the borders are still open? All it takes is a handful of cases coming in from abroad to start up a cluster again. Or am I being really stupid and the long term effect of our lockdowns is that the majority of virus carriers will have got over it and now be immune? Will the post lockdown world still be fraught with risk but nowhere near as bad as where we were before it? I'm guessing ultimately we will all become compulsory mask wearers for a time.

Remains to be seen but likely fraught with risk, just less risk.

Italy and Spain both had explosions and locked down. Most of their big numbers were a result of cases infected pre-lockdown, with concerts, protests, no social distancing, pubs, restaurants etc.

I assume the idea is that once they get these under control and “open the tap” again, the removal of large gatherings, addition of social distancing, masks, better hygiene, cocooning, etc should see increased spread, but not as much.

Realistically, you’ll need to test much more and isolate cases, but it’s a game of whack a mole, especially due to asymptotic cases. Italy has also increased self isolation to 28 days from 14. Will be interesting to see how a confirmed case and let’s say 10 contacts could be successfully isolated for 28 days. And if it gets out of control again, will the public accept another lockdown.

Other issue is as seen in Italy today, when the government allowed some extra retail to open, many didn’t out of fear. Could be seen as a good sign, as people are hyper aware, but a bad sign if say supermarkets or chemists decide to also play it safe.

Nonoperational

Just dropped in, can maybe shed some light on some of these points.

jackboy wrote: »

Wow, that is some article in the examiner stating that the HSE are giving false figures for positive cases. Information coming from a whistleblower nurse. I would expect the examiner to be pretty sure about their sources.

I can only give my side being a doctor in a large teaching hospital not a nurse in a midlands community hospital but thankfully my experience is miles from this. We have twice daily briefings where everything is out in the open. If there is any hint of COVID the patient is presumed positive until proven otherwise. I had a test on a Tuesday and got the results on a Wednesday as is the case for my colleagues. I'm taking a community hospital as being a nursing home type set up so that indeed could be very different.

bodhrandude wrote: »

How can a 23 year old die of it can they not resuscitate him and put on life support or something, Jesus. RIP.

I don't have any more detail on this than the age. Do you have a link to more details? Is it known he wasn't on 'life support'? Unfortunately some 23 year olds are also very sick and frail and this virus targets people with underlying conditions particularly harshly.

owlbethere wrote: »

I don't know about Ireland but in the UK, when someone dies with this, they are not allowed to do the cpr in case the virus spits up into their faces.. Something like that anyways. When someone goes, that's it, they are gone.

I'm not sure this is accurate about the UK, do you have a link? In Ireland we don't have such a rule. We are now doing CPR on anyone that required in in full PPE.

I guess this goes back to the nursing home and elderly patient discussion but a brief bit of background regarding CPR. Firstly in COVID the majority die of respiratory failure which put simply means the lungs do not extract enough oxygen from the air and pass it to blood. CPR will do nothing for this usually. CPR is generally a very poor and brutal procedure. Patients a lot of the time do not make it even if you get an initial ROSC (return of spontaneous circulation). It often causes broken ribs and trauma and severe psychological trauma to both patient (if they remember it) and staff. There are a few exceptions to what I have said (for example shockable broad complex tachycardia, for those interested).

But long story short if a patient arrests we will try and recuss if it might be useful. A lot of the time with COVID if won't be as it will be progressive ARDS that causes the arrest ultimately.

bekker

owlbethere wrote: »

I don't know about Ireland but in the UK, when someone dies with this, they are not allowed to do the cpr in case the virus spits up into their faces.. Something like that anyways. When someone goes, that's it, they are gone.

Not really correct, mouth-to-mouth is out, otherwise compression and defib OK but take precautions, especially defib cloth over mouth etc.

https://www.resus.org.uk/media/statements/resuscitation-council-uk-statements-on-covid-19-coronavirus-cpr-and-resuscitation/covid-community/

smelly sock

wakka12 wrote: »

0.3% of 8 billion is 24 million

2 million infections is about 0.025% of the world pop

Wow. Crazy restrictions to tackle it.

joe_99

smelly sock wrote: »

Am i right in saying that the confirmed cases make up around 0.3% of the worlds population?

0.03%

wakka12

growleaves wrote: »

That it may still be correct, though of course I don't claim to know that it is.



Which is why I've consistently used phrases like 'harsh flu season', 'bad flu year'.



There are no exact comparisons in medical statistics. I'm only mentioning it to provide context. If Fauci's prediction of 60,000 were correct than covid is as bad as a very bad flu year.

I think youre being deliberately obtuse. COVID may be as bad (in the US) as a very bad flu season if they maintain the most stringent lockdown in modern human history. If life went on as it does during typical flu season, then COVID will result in a number of deaths many many multiples more than a very harsh flu season, as it is doing in NYC right now, where it is killing about 20x times more peoplein a given week than the number of people who die on a monthly basis from flu there.

Wibbs

Nonoperational wrote: »

But long story short if a patient arrests we will try and recuss if it might be useful. A lot of the time with COVID if won't be as it will be progressive ARDS that causes the arrest ultimately.

A rellie who's a doctor once described similar around CPR in many patients that it was "like trying to push start a car with no petrol in the tank".

Padraig Mor

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The obesity factor, smoking factor, and lack of social distancing would put the Traveller community at the top of the list to be hit hard by this virus. Will be interesting to hear it explained why they haven't been hit. Not yet anyway.

Maybe because they get priority testing?

smelly sock

joe_99 wrote: »

0.03%

New i was missing a 0. Haha.

Ffs time to let it run its course.