Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

polesheep

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I do not understand how western governments and healthcare administrators failed to recognise the dangers to nursing and care homes and put in place thorough protocols. We pay these people to have some foresight and plans in place.

Its actually shocking the complete lack of planning for a global pandemic there has been in the US and EU.

It's very simple really. Taking measures that would only impact the old and vulnerable (that includes nursing homes) was never going to be acceptable in modern western society, where everyone must be treated equally regardless. We have paid for our PC nonsense.

smelly sock

BattleCorp wrote: »

I'm not trying to be smart or pick on you here but what would you open up right now?

How would you go about easing the restrictions? What opens tomorrow, what controls etc. What opens then after that, and again what controls?

Fair question BattleCorp and appreciate your engagement.

I think we need to get people back to work for a start. I'm not advocating people using public transport and exposing themselves but I'd think anyone who need to be onsite for work and to get paid goes there via their car etc.

If you can work from home then do so.

DIY stores/ Electrical outlets etc should reopen and use social distancing measures to ensure less risk of transmission. If Tesco / lidl / aldi etc can do it then no reason why Woodies/ Bandq / Chadwicks etc can't.

Pubs restaurants to stay closed.

gabeeg

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

551 deaths and over 5,100 new cases reported in Spain.

Deaths up a bit on yesterday but new cases continue to accelerate up from 3,000 on Tuesday.

that is very disconcerting

any sort of an explanation out there?

growleaves

Equally, it could not be. The graph is pretty clear, yes in the time that COVID has been at epidemic levels, it is much much deadlier than the Asian flu pandemic. What else do you judge it by exactly, other than by the amount of deaths it has caused while it has been at epidemic level

The Asian flu pandemic had twenty times more deaths than covid (so far) due to the length of the epidemic.

Any novel disease - or normal strain of influenza - could put the Black Death in the halfpenny place if the number of deaths per million kept increasing and the length of the epidemic went on and on.

This graph doesn't tell us anything about what is going to happen in the future.

I would judge it on factors not contained in this graph.

wakka12

Estimates of at least 3500 unreported dead at home and in nursing homes and hospices in Madrid alone

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/world/europe/coronoavirus-spain-death-toll.html

Spain's death toll overall may double when taking into account home deaths.
Catalonia is the first Spanish state to add nursing home and home deaths and it's death toll doubled from 3500 to over 7000.

Also controversy over how many died in Spain before the first official coronavirus death was registered, the country experienced a sharp increase in the number of pneumonia deaths in late February before any coronavirus deaths were confirmed.

“I think the official numbers of the dead obviously don’t add up,” said Juan Antonio Alguacil, who heads a Spanish association of funerary employees.

He said that in late February, before Spain officially registered its first coronavirus death, his colleagues had already been handling an “illogical” increase in the number of pneumonia cases.

growleaves

Carbon125 wrote: »

The only thing silly here is your interpretation of the data.

Uh I didn't offer any interpretation of the data.

wakka12

wakka12 wrote: »

Japan has declared a nationwide state of emergency this morning as cases rise throughout all provinces of the country

Cases in Japan have grown from 4,600 one week ago to over 8,600 today, deaths have also doubled over the last 7 days from 90 to 180

Japan to best of my knowledge have oldest population in the world

This.could be horrendous,if it gets in there

maninasia

is_that_so wrote: »

He actually pointed out the uselessness of it as people could have flown in from elsewhere in pre-lockdown days in Italy. Evidence on the efficacy of such a measure is dubious anyway. Here's a piece on the US "ban".

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davekeating/2020/03/12/italy-banned-flights-from-china-before-americait-didnt-work/

It's not logucal to think that cutting the flow of people infected with a virus from an epidemic hotspot would not be beneficial. Many countries closed off flights such as Taiwan and New Zealand and it was very effective in getting on top of the situation early on. Even one day can have a big impact due to the exponential nature of the spread of the virus.

eagle eye

Deleted User wrote:

This was discussed yesterday, but Trumps decision to restrict flights to China was all down to Trumps trade war with China and not in anyway related to public health as evidenced by the subsequent 6 weeks.

That's not the question I asked you. I asked you if you agree with CNN that he should not have restricted flights from China.
They never mentioned trade wars, they called it way ott, xenophobic and fear mongering amongst other things. They were talking about it in relation to covid-19 as was Joe Biden.

Seamie12345

maninasia wrote: »

Partly . But it's also the political willpower to take controversial decisions early on. Taiwan banned all entry of Chinese , HKers and Macau months ago. Extended school holidays way back at start of Feb.
Also started quarantining people early on and surveying all incoming visitors.

You need to have a leader who is willing to lead. It's not like those decisions are accepted off the bat ! Taiwan is a democracy there are different interests and voices. Quality of leadership very much matters.

Leo and Co allowed flights to come in from Italy when the epidemic was already widespread there. Didn't ban flights, didn't quarantine people, didn't even question them coming in . The reasons, pressure from the EU and business people at home. Leaders need to take tough decisions.

You need to quarantine people coming in and enforce the quarantine. Taiwan had 50k people under strict home quarantine at one point. If you don't quarantine incoming people they can always start another cluster of infection .

Madness !

Absolute madness, so true. I'd have been willing to go along with our approach if this one GLARING anomaly was dealt with. It's totally unacceptable to be asking our population to be in 5 weeks of this with more to come (5 weeks since schools closed) and allowing every dog and divil into the country without being forced to quarantine themselves - and I don't mean a leaflet of advice, it's insulting and upsetting to the rest of the nation doing what's being asked. Do we want to make this last longer than necessary? Is there some perverse glee in how much this will destroy our economy? It is beyond baffling, frustrating and no longer good enough.
WHY will no one in "leadership" actually answer this question properly??? Yes we cannot cut ourselves off from the rest of the world entirely, but we need freight not tourists !!!!

Interestingly, one of the key criteria within GE years ago for the identification of future leaders was "Edge" - this refers to the willingness to make difficult decisions without worrying about being popular - MASSIVE FAIL FOR OUR GOVERNMENT on that criterion then

Kermit.de.frog

gabeeg wrote: »

that is very disconcerting

any sort of an explanation out there?

Barcelona said to have deteriorated significantly in recent days is part of it apparently.

The focus now is will Spain be the first country to take the consequences of having to shut down construction sites, for example, again.

The WHO has warned countries over and over again not to get in to an endless 'doom cycle'.

It will be a at least a week yet before figures start filtering through in terms of new cases from the limited openings.

There is deep disquiet in Spain on a number of fronts actually regarding the whole thing. The govt is in some difficulty and accused of lying, coverups and recklessness by opposition.

Hrududu

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I do not understand how western governments and healthcare administrators failed to recognise the dangers to nursing and care homes and put in place thorough protocols. We pay these people to have some foresight and plans in place.

Its actually shocking the complete lack of planning for a global pandemic there has been in the US and EU.

Even within the EU. Spain had a headstart on us. Before things really kicked off here we were hearing horror stories about people being left dead in nursing homes. Its not like this came out of the blue when it started happening here.

gabeeg

eagle eye wrote: »

That's not the question I asked you. I asked you if you agree with CNN that he should not have restricted flights from China.
They never mentioned trade wars, they called it way ott, xenophobic and fear mongering amongst other things. They were talking about it in relation to covid-19 as was Joe Biden.

To be fair, Trump has history of closing borders with countries for purely xenophobic and racist reasons.
I think it was the same in this case - he was just doing something xenophobic to pander to his base, and accidentally bought the country time to fight the virus.

Time which he subsequently squandered. The idiot.

caveat emptor

This is looking less and less like a conspiracy theory.

12th November 2015
Engineered bat virus stirs debate over risky research
https://www.nature.com/news/engineered-bat-virus-stirs-debate-over-risky-research-1.18787

And here's the paper that initiated the "debate".

TLDR
The edited a wild virus to contain the spike protein which binds to ACE2 receptors in humans cells. They then infected human cells in vitro and infected mouses in vivo to show its replicating abilities. All in order to show something terrible "could" happen.

Very coincidental.

A SARS-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows potential for human emergence

The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS)-CoV underscores the threat of cross-species transmission events leading to outbreaks in humans. Here we examine the disease potential of a SARS-like virus, SHC014-CoV, which is currently circulating in Chinese horseshoe bat populations1. Using the SARS-CoV reverse genetics system2, we generated and characterized a chimeric virus expressing the spike of bat coronavirus SHC014 in a mouse-adapted SARS-CoV backbone. The results indicate that group 2b viruses encoding the SHC014 spike in a wild-type backbone can efficiently use multiple orthologs of the SARS receptor human angiotensin converting enzyme II (ACE2), replicate efficiently in primary human airway cells and achieve in vitro titers equivalent to epidemic strains of SARS-CoV. Additionally, in vivo experiments demonstrate replication of the chimeric virus in mouse lung with notable pathogenesis. Evaluation of available SARS-based immune-therapeutic and prophylactic modalities revealed poor efficacy; both monoclonal antibody and vaccine approaches failed to neutralize and protect from infection with CoVs using the novel spike protein. On the basis of these findings, we synthetically re-derived an infectious full-length SHC014 recombinant virus and demonstrate robust viral replication both in vitro and in vivo. Our work suggests a potential risk of SARS-CoV re-emergence from viruses currently circulating in bat populations.

https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985

tobefrank321

This really is one of the most important studies on covid 19 so far imo.

https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/04/14/coronavirus-boston-homeless-testing

146 homeless in a shelter showed up positive, the vast majority asymptomatic.

Its likely a small number got it in the community and then spread it widely in the centre. You'd wonder why so many are asymptomatic, was it due to a reduced viral load. It also appears to counter the argument that there is a genetic element to why some people get a severe reaction to covid 19 and some don't.

On the otherhand, you'd imagine there are a large number of smokers and drinkers among the homeless, but obesity would not be a major issue.

With no hope of a vaccine any time soon, if we could reproduce the Boston homeless shelter outcome with a large number of people being asymptomatic this might be one way forward. Its not like we have many other options.

eagle eye

gabeeg wrote:

To be fair, Trump has history of closing borders with countries for purely xenophobic and racist reasons. I think it was the same in this case - he was just doing something xenophobic to pander to his base, and accidentally bought the country time to fight the virus.
Time which he subsequently squandered. The idiot.

Again the political answer not the straight honest answer from you.
You are coming across as a liar, deceiver and full of hidden agendas. A bit like CNN.
I'm just an ordinary guy on the outside looking in with no agendas other than wanting honesty from everybody.

Don't mistake that for being a Trump supporter by the way. I dislike the man immensely. I was always a democrat supporter but they are every bit as bad as the republicans now.

El Weirdo

caveat emptor wrote: »

This is looking less and less like a conspiracy theory.

12th November 2015
Engineered bat virus stirs debate over risky research
https://www.nature.com/news/engineered-bat-virus-stirs-debate-over-risky-research-1.18787

And here's the paper that initiated the "debate".

TLDR
The edited a wild virus to contain the spike protein which binds to ACE2 receptors in humans cells. They then infected human cells in vitro and infected mouses in vivo to show its replicating abilities. All in order to show something terrible "could" happen.

Very coincidental.

A SARS-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows potential for human emergence


https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985

Miss this bit, did we?

30 March 2020 Editors’ note, March 2020: We are aware that this article is being used as the basis for unverified theories that the novel coronavirus causing COVID-19 was engineered. There is no evidence that this is true; scientists believe that an animal is the most likely source of the coronavirus.

Kermit.de.frog

wakka12 wrote: »

Japan has declared a nationwide state of emergency this morning as cases rise throughout all provinces of the country

Cases in Japan have grown from 4,600 one week ago to over 8,600 today, deaths have also doubled over the last 7 days from 90 to 180

Hard to believe just little over two weeks a go they were adamant the Olympics would be going ahead! They made the right call there.

gabeeg

eagle eye wrote: »

Again the political answer not the straight honest answer from you.
You are coming across as a liar, deceiver and full of hidden agendas. A bit like CNN.
I'm just an ordinary guy on the outside looking in with no agendas other than wanting honesty from everybody.

Don't mistake that for being a Trump supporter by the way. I dislike the man immensely. I was always a democrat supporter but they are every bit as bad as the republicans now.

sure thing pal

eagle eye

gabeeg wrote:

sure thing pal

That reply has probably more honesty than any of your others.

rossie1977

eagle eye wrote: »

That's not the question I asked you. I asked you if you agree with CNN that he should not have restricted flights from China.
They never mentioned trade wars, they called it way ott, xenophobic and fear mongering amongst other things. They were talking about it in relation to covid-19 as was Joe Biden.

Biden never said that. Biden said stopping flights and building a wall won't stop the virus which is correct especially after horse had bolted. Italy were the first country on Earth to ban flights from China...

The xenophobic/fear mongering had nothing to do with China, that was something else and used by right wing pundits and Trumps campaign ads https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/trump-campaigns-misleading-ad-attacking-biden-on-china/

gabeeg

eagle eye wrote: »

That reply has probably more honesty than any of your others.

I've no idea what you're banging on about

I think you have me pegged for someone else

caveat emptor

El Weirdo wrote: »

Miss this bit, did we?

Fair play for clicking on link. No I didn't miss it, I read the article. Did you? What are your thoughts apart from the editor's notes.

We are aware that this story is being used as the basis for unverified theories that the novel coronavirus causing COVID-19 was engineered.

I don't think it's a conspiracy theory. I think it's a fvck up. Some serious amount of coincidences. That tag leaves out that some scientists do believe it was engineered and so not balanced. To be clear this is a completely unverified theory.

All theories are unverified at first.

bekker

Deleted User wrote: »

Ideal Government - Taoiseach - Scientist, Finance - Accountant, Justice - Not a lawyer, Transport - Engineer, Agriculture - Economist, Foreign Affairs - Historian, Health - Scientist

A recipe for blinker thinking, and unbalanced decision making.

What is necessary in a minister is the ability to seek advice from a variety of sources, balance that advice in line with his/her responsibilities, and make decisions. Then ensure that the policies developed by his/her ministry is consistent with those decisions and implement in full without the deviations desired by his officials, and there are always deviations desired by officials.

Ministers are in a constant struggle to have funds allocated, encourage/press officials to go beyond their silos, and ensure co-operation and co-ordination across departments. An individual possessing the qualities to implement the forgoing is what is required, irrespective of formal training or experience.

From a historical perspective ministers who have been put in charge of ministries allied to their speciality have a less than stellar record.

syngindub

Where is Trump coming from saying they have past the peak. That Curve ain't flat boss

Beasty

caveat emptor wrote: »

I don't think it's a conspiracy theory. I think it's a fvck up. Some serious amount of coincidences. That tag leaves out that some scientists do believe it was engineered and so not balanced. To be clear this is a completely unverified theory.

All theories are unverified at first.

At this stage, I'm "ruling" (for the purposes of this thread) that it is - so please discontinue the discussion here

grindle

syngindub wrote: »

Where is Trump coming from saying they have past the peak. That Curve ain't flat boss

Imagine being surprised that a boldfaced lie was presented as truth. It's his wheelhouse. His pressers have been astonishing in their audacity recently.

growleaves

N.Y.C. Death Toll Soars Past 10,000 in Revised Virus Count

The city has added more than 3,700 additional people who were presumed to have died of the coronavirus but had never tested positive.

We're well into Dodge city now.

UTRIs are probably the leading cause of the death in the world for the elderly and very sick. So to say that someone with UTRI-like symptoms who didn't test positive for covid died from covid... Lysenkoism imo.

growleaves

Trump says US has ‘passed the peak’ of coronavirus outbreak

Over the past six days, the rate of new cases has declined across the country, Coronavirus Response Coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx said, adding that nine states have less than 1,000 cases each and report fewer than 30 new cases per day. However, she said the administration is concerned about Providence, Rhode Island, which is in a “unique situation,” caught between two hot spots, New York and Boston.

crossman47

caveat emptor wrote: »

Perhaps an entrepreneurially property developer would work :pac:

Certainly not - even worse than an accountant

is_that_so

maninasia wrote: »

It's not logucal to think that cutting the flow of people infected with a virus from an epidemic hotspot would not be beneficial. Many countries closed off flights such as Taiwan and New Zealand and it was very effective in getting on top of the situation early on. Even one day can have a big impact due to the exponential nature of the spread of the virus.

Research on it by WHO themselves suggested there is not a lot to be gained from it IF you are following the other known effective guidelines. It's an individual choice of countries but people are likely to find a way around bans in our connected world.

eagle eye

rossie1977 wrote:

Biden never said that. Biden said stopping flights and building a wall won't stop the virus which is correct especially after horse had bolted. Italy were the first country on Earth to ban flights from China...

Are you seriously beating that stopping flights won't help against the spread of the virus?

rossie1977 wrote:

The xenophobic/fear mongering had nothing to do with China, that was something else and used by right wing pundits and Trumps campaign ads

I presume the link you posted is something run by democrats.
I watched CNN discuss and agree with Biden's comments at the time and they had it down as relating to Trump's actions in relation to covid-19. I don't have access to programming from CNN so I can't go and find it and put it up unfortunately.

MrMusician18

gabeeg wrote: »

The numbers are of course heavily influenced by the lockdown.

This is pretty basic stuff, but clearly beyond you. Fascinating really. Your world must be a very odd place.

He lockdown has probably only reduced the number of cases to date by half. For something this virulent you need absolutely total compliance not near total compliance for the measures to have the effect of killing it off.

10% not adhering to the measures (which is not an unreasonable assumption, just by looking out my window, behavioural scientists think non compliance is normally between 15 and 20%) reduce the effectiveness of the measures by 50%.

So the real question is the way out. Should we be looking to use this time to continue to build massive healthcare capacity and then lift restrictions. Unless we get a vaccine, this is going to move through the population anyway.

frillyleaf

Fakediamond wrote: »

Professor Kim is back and once again, it’s a must watch....

https://youtu.be/QwoNP9QWr4Y

Good video

normanoffside

Universal testing in a large Homeless shelter in Boston revealed that 36% had the disease on the day of testing (147 people)

Only 1 had a fever and 13 had a cough.

None were seriously sick.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.12.20059618v1

wakka12

Important to note that not showing symptoms at the time of testing does not mean those people will not later develop symptoms, especially given an incubation period of a 5-7 days or more

blade1

ZX7R

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

551 deaths and over 5,100 new cases reported in Spain.

Deaths up a bit on yesterday but new cases continue to accelerate up from 3,000 on Tuesday.

Spain have only reported 2157 new cases
And 318 new deaths today April 16

caveat emptor

Sorry for speculating. I linked to nature. Of course its origin doesn't really change much for us as we are where we are now. I was reprimanded for using the term airborne early on. HSE reports showing transmission in some clusters as being airborne. I will cease and desist until such a time that it is proven.

Nature is a British multidisciplinary scientific journal, first published on 4 November 1869.[1] It is one of the most recognizable scientific journals in the world, and was ranked the world's most cited scientific journal by the Science Edition of the 2018 Journal Citation Reports and is ascribed an impact factor of 43.070,[2] making it one of the world's top academic journals.

Hobgoblin11

wakka12 wrote: »

Important to note that not showing symptoms at the time of testing does not mean those people will not later develop symptoms, especially given an incubation period of a 5-7 days or more

this virus is pretty good at what it does, survive, I just hope its cousins in the future are not any worse

Azatadine

wakka12 wrote: »

Important to note that not showing symptoms at the time of testing does not mean those people will not later develop symptoms, especially given an incubation period of a 5-7 days or more

Its one thing that should always be made clear. Asymptomatic versus pre-symptomatic. Big difference.

Blanco100

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

551 deaths and over 5,100 new cases reported in Spain.

Deaths up a bit on yesterday but new cases continue to accelerate up from 3,000 on Tuesday.

No idea where you are getting this from!

fin12

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/the-numbers-are-being-fudged-says-nurse-who-brands-testing-regime-an-omnishambles-994236.html

Testing regime a shambles.

Iamabeliever

Azatadine wrote: »

Its one thing that should always be made clear. Asymptomatic versus pre-symptomatic. Big difference.

Why would you get tested pre symptoms

is_that_so

fin12 wrote: »

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/the-numbers-are-being-fudged-says-nurse-who-brands-testing-regime-an-omnishambles-994236.html

Testing regime a shambles.

Ah, good old Mary, has the finger on the pulse!

normanoffside

wakka12 wrote: »

Important to note that not showing symptoms at the time of testing does not mean those people will not later develop symptoms, especially given an incubation period of a 5-7 days or more

Also important to note that the other 63% may have actually already recovered or been immune to infection.
Given that it’s a homeless shelter it’s unlikely everyone had not been exposed to it.

John.Icy

Different sites report different for Spain. They have two updates, morning and night. Worldometers had 6,599 new cases for Spain yesterday. They count morning + night. Other sites add together night + morning of the next day as the total (I tihnk BNO had been doing this to name one but they only ran the 2,157 number today on their tally). Spain added 2,157 this morning so presumably Kermits figures is that + lasts night release.

stephenjmcd

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/world/who-wants-draconian-lockdowns-to-end-as-soon-as-possible-994345.html

wakka12

Iamabeliever wrote: »

Why would you get tested pre symptoms

Well most people wouldnt, but in the case of the Boston homeless shelter they tested everybody regardless of symptoms or lack there of

growleaves

Should We Have Trusted Expert Epidemiological Models?

Relying on [Neil Ferguson and his Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team's] model, they insisted that “optimal mitigation policies…might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems…being overwhelmed many times over” [and] even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.”

These figures translate into about 14,000 deaths per day in GB and 56,000 per day in the US at the peak. Per day! These numbers are astounding, and it’s shocking anybody swallowed them. Perhaps those that did, did so because the predictions were presented in terms of so-many deaths per 100,000, and not in plain numbers.

The business-as-usual projections are so far removed from experience, though, that anyone not invested in the model should have doubted it instantly. Here’s why.

The Spanish flu of 1918 was a horrific event. It befell a world fresh from a global war, one with poor medical care, aspirin poisoning, shortages of every kind. Between 17 and 58 million were killed worldwide.

The CDC estimated that about 675,000 Americans died, when the population in the US was about 106 million. This makes 637 per 100,000 dead of Spanish flu in the US.

Imperial college predicted 670 per 100,000 would die of coronavirus.

When the COVID-19 Response team constructed their model on 16 March there were only “6,470 deaths confirmed worldwide” and 97 in the US. Yet, somehow, in the presence of modern medicine and these low figures, coronavirus was predicted to be deadlier than the Spanish flu.