Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

eagle eye

crossman47 wrote:

You assume wrong. Its a lot quicker now.

How much quicker seeing as you made a statement of fact there?

Amirani

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Not really. The government have been advising something similar, to presume you are positive if you have symptoms.

There's a difference between presuming you're positive pending a result and the CMO announcing that you're positive pending a result. If you don't see that then I don't know what to say to you.

auspicious

Does anyone have the latest HSE coronavirus cases map, or a link to, which doesn't blur when zoomed in?

is_that_so

A bit reluctant to post this but I guess information is out there.

Dr. Philip Hyland, Associate Professor of Psychology at NUI Maynooth said the mental health of the nation does not look good right now.
The study found that one in four people would meet diagnostic criteria for depression, one in five for anxiety disorders and one in five for traumatic stress responses.

The study was launched on 31 March and surveyed 1,041 Irish adults and also found that 41% of people also reported feeling lonely.

Red Silurian

crossman47 wrote: »

You assume wrong. Its a lot quicker now.

Of right, how much faster?

I was told in the last few minutes of somebody who went for a test this day last week and still hasn't had any results, was told 10-14 days at the time so if you could share your knowledge of the new revised times that would be great

ShineOn7

I'm going to share a theory reluctantly, as it doesn't bode well for Ireland unless we keep hammering home and following social distancing;

I think how social a country's people will play a factor in all of this. Italians all hug each other, the Spanish are big into lots of big family gatherings and are very social.

And the Irish? Well, do I even need to say how social we are?

Now compare that to countries that are socially cold and that have - last I checked - done ok with this; Germany and Japan

So I think 7 factors will come into play when all is said and done in the stats and the Maths of this:

• How densely populated a city or country is (I'm a stressed Dubliner)

• How fast a country's government locked down and how much they've implemented it (I still think Ireland is in "lockdown" and further measures (like in Dubai) are needed)

• How social a country's people are

• How modern and capable a country's heath infrastructure is (I don't know how Africa isn't absolutely riddled with this yet. I believe mass amounts of deaths are simply been put down to "just another day in Africa")

• How a country is testing and how many they are testing

• How a country is recording and not recording Covid fatalities. Some are counting Nursing Home fatalities, some aren't. Some are recording Covid as the reason for death when - for example - a patient was absolutely banjaxed with pnuemonia or similar before they got Covid. In some cases I feel Covid only attributed to 10% of their passing. But the certificate will still say "Covid". So there's under reporting and over reporting all over the world

• The age demographics of a country. Many have said that Italy having so many over 70s played a big part to their huge numbers

caveat emptor

ECDC guide to masks


https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/infographic-using-face-masks-community

tobefrank321

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

They are definitely not healthier

https://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/homeless-people-have-an-average-lifespan-of-just-42-422638.html

Well then IF some of the infected homeless were heavy drinkers, it would make it more perplexing.

And by the way, if they checked every such homeless shelter in the US, particularly cities like NY, they might find similar results.

We really need to look at random sampling of the population in Ireland to see who might currently be asymptomatic infected. Now would be a perfect time to do it as we have spare lab capacity.

auspicious

is_that_so wrote: »

A bit reluctant to post this but I guess information is out there.

I'd like to see the questions asked in survey and the order of questions. They may have triggered certain responses.
25% meeting depression criteria is simply too big, although most could perhaps just brush the bottom of the scale.

tobefrank321

Amirani wrote: »

There's a difference between presuming you're positive pending a result and the CMO announcing that you're positive pending a result. If you don't see that then I don't know what to say to you.

They can say suspected. Did you miss the point about the CMO saying doctors are diagnosing deaths as related to covid 19 before test results? Of course you did.

The testing is a shambles, missing out on at least half of positive cases. They said so themselves.

In short, the official numbers are a complete sham - if you don't see that, then likewise I haven't much to say to you.

iamwhoiam

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I think everyone should remember that every new case you hear from now is because two people did not observe the rules of lockdown, social distancing, hand hygiene and cough etiquette.

Or they needed to go shopping . Honestly victim blaming in this is just not necessary at all

is_that_so

auspicious wrote: »

I'd like to see the questions asked in survey and the order of questions. They may have triggered certain responses.
25% meeting depression criteria is simply too big, although most could perhaps just brush the bottom of the scale.

It's from the RTE feed. Apparently the guy was on SOR. I heard Siobhan Ni Bhriain of the HSE say that 7 out of 10 are experiencing anxiety in this.

eagle eye

is_that_so wrote:

A bit reluctant to post this but I guess information is out there.

I have five siblings ranging in age from mid thirties to fifty, all are married or with a partner. In total that's 12 adults and then our parents. From talking to my in-laws about their families theyveay everything is good do now we are talking about 37 adults in total and none of them have any issues. Then there's my friends and that numbers quite high and they are all doing well.
Basically I'm not aware of anybody struggling over this lockdown so I call bs on that guy.
I'm sure there are people suffering but it's miniscule and nothing neat the numbers he suggests.

auspicious

is_that_so wrote: »

It's from the RTE feed. Apparently the guy was on SOR. I heard Siobhan Ni Bhriain of the HSE say that 7 out of 10 are experiencing anxiety in this.

Sure I can understand anxiety. The worry for our own and our families health and job security etc. that's a given of course.

Mysteriouschic

Ireland quadrupling the WHO contribution after USA backed out

https://extra.ie/2020/04/16/news/irish-news/quadruples-irelands-who-budget

Amirani

tobefrank321 wrote: »

They can say suspected. Did you miss the point about the CMO saying doctors are diagnosing deaths as related to covid 19 before test results? Of course you did.

The testing is a shambles, missing out on at least half of positive cases. They said so themselves.

In short, the official numbers are a complete sham - if you don't see that, then likewise I haven't much to say to you.

The official numbers reported don't claim to represent how many people have the disease. I'm sorry you've been misled on this the whole time.

The numbers reported are how many have tested positive for the disease, nothing more, nothing less.

This number has specific public health information relating to the clinical case definition and affected groups. Important to isolate this from the suspected number for contract tracing and case management. You're aware of all that though of course.

Kermit.de.frog

In positive news South Korea has it's foot firmly on the neck of the disease.

Just 22 new cases yesterday and it's been around that for 2 weeks.

is_that_so

eagle eye wrote: »

I have five siblings ranging in age from mid thirties to fifty, all are married or with a partner. In total that's 12 adults and then our parents. From talking to my in-laws about their families theyveay everything is good do now we are talking about 37 adults in total and none of them have any issues. Then there's my friends and that numbers quite high and they are all doing well.
Basically I'm not aware of anybody struggling over this lockdown so I call bs on that guy.
I'm sure there are people suffering but it's miniscule and nothing neat the numbers he suggests.

I'd say his 1041 trumps your 37 as a dataset! He did say that the depression levels are about the same as a year previously.
Here's the interview on it.

https://www.rte.ie/radio/radioplayer/html5/#/radio1/21751245

Jim_Hodge

colmtheperson wrote: »

Of right, how much faster?

I was told in the last few minutes of somebody who went for a test this day last week and still hasn't had any results, was told 10-14 days at the time so if you could share your knowledge of the new revised times that would be great

A friend of mine was tested on Tuesday and got a positive result back today.

tobefrank321

Amirani wrote: »

The numbers reported don't claim to represent how many people have the disease. I'm sorry you've been misled on this the whole time.

The numbers reported are how many have tested positive for the disease, nothing more, nothing less.

I haven't been misled FFS.

Read back my posts, even on this thread. I said in all likelihood the true number of cases including asymptomatic ones is closer to the deaths by 100 rule of thumb which is roughly 44,000.

Our testing has been a shambles, laughably bad and the new cases are unreliable. Even Holohan and Nolan admitted this. So if for example they announce 650 new cases, the reality is there is at least 1300 new cases - as they admitted themselves - 5 found, 5 not found.

Kilboor

Mysteriouschic wrote: »

Ireland quadrupling the WHO contribution after USA backed out

https://extra.ie/2020/04/16/news/irish-news/quadruples-irelands-who-budget

Of course he is. Classic globalist Coveney.

That's not to slate Coveney btw but I think WHO is not an entirely faultless organisation nor do I think now is the right time to give money to an organisation when our own health service needs every penny.

Gynoid

Yep I have a skite of siblings and a skite more of siblings in law, all have big families themselves, and everyone is doing good. The odd ferfuxake moment but kept comical or at least on the humourous side of dark, lots of chat, memes, pictures, whatsapping, time with the kids, spouses, gardening, DIY, clearing out and cleaning up, reading, movies, talking to neighbours from a distance to make sure they are okay, sleeping better and longer, time for hobbies and the craic, gratitude that we are still in one piece. People even saying they feel peaceful. I am sure it is hard on some but maybe studies should be equally published on those who are thinking fcuk me I was running around like a blue arsed fly before all this and I feel more rested now.

grindle

auspicious wrote: »

I'd like to see the questions asked in survey and the order of questions. They may have triggered certain responses.
25% meeting depression criteria is simply too big, although most could perhaps just brush the bottom of the scale.

If it's anything like Galway's survey, it's slightly ambiguous but I guess they can subtract typical numbers for depression here (~12%).

I wouldn't consider it unfathomable that that amount could double when people who rely on socialising have it chopped out of their lives. I'm surprised it affects people that way, but judging from most people I know having some feeling of cabin fever, it's believable that they're temporarily ticking the boxes.

polesheep

Amirani wrote: »

The anonymous nurse seems a bit confused. She wants us to report people as positive before they have a test result? Seems a bit unscientific.

Does she even exist?

Amirani

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I haven't been misled FFS.

Read back my posts, even on this thread. I said in all likelihood the true number of cases including asymptomatic ones is closer to the deaths by 100 rule of thumb which is roughly 44,000.

Our testing as been a shambles, laughably bad and the new cases are unreliable. Even Holohan and Nolan admitted this. So if for example they announce 650 new cases, the reality is there is at least 1300 new cases - as they admitted themselves - 5 found, 5 not found.

They're going to continue reporting the number of people who have tested positive, instead of some arbitrary estimate of the actual total number of cases. It's a scientifically categorical figure, so reporting it has merit.

If it makes you feel better, just pretend Tony is saying twice the number he is during his briefings. Maybe time yourself to see how fast you can multiply it in your head as a game.

tobefrank321

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

A friend of mine was tested on Tuesday and got a positive result back today.

Were they a healthcare worker?

Kermit.de.frog

870 new deaths recorded in the UK. (total 13,828)

tobefrank321

Amirani wrote: »

They're going to continue reporting the number of people who have tested positive, instead of some arbitrary estimate of the actual total number of cases. It's a scientifically derived figure, so reporting it has merit.

If it makes you feel better, just pretend Tony is saying twice the number he is during his briefings. Maybe time yourself to see how fast you can multiply it in your head as a game.

You missed Marys entire point.

Why am I not surprised?

Her point was the daily cases are a shambles - they are a fraction of the real number of cases.

You get it now?

If it makes you feel better and helps you sleep well tonight, pretend we have this under control. Good Lad.

caveat emptor

Board of Governors Professor of Chemistry and Chemical Biology rutgers uni.

https://twitter.com/R_H_Ebright/status/1250049561168621569?s=20

Amirani

tobefrank321 wrote: »

You missed Marys entire point.

Why am I not surprised?

Her point was the daily cases are a shambles - they are a fraction of the real number of cases.

You get it now?

If it makes you feel better and helps you sleep well tonight, pretend we have this under control. Good Lad.

Nobody thinks the daily cases aren't a fraction of the real number of cases.

She wants Tony to guess the number of cases instead of just telling us the ones confirmed with a positive test. I think this is a bad idea.

Maybe write him a letter and he'll change his approach?

Drumpot

is_that_so wrote: »

A bit reluctant to post this but I guess information is out there.

This is a global crisis that’s changed everybody’s life , I’d be surprised if this wasn’t having adverse effects on the mental health many many people. I’m not sure what his point is to be honest.

Kermit.de.frog

18 new fatalities recorded in NI.

DevilsHaircut

tobefrank321 wrote: »

They can say suspected. Did you miss the point about the CMO saying doctors are diagnosing deaths as related to covid 19 before test results? Of course you did.

The testing is a shambles, missing out on at least half of positive cases. They said so themselves.

In short, the official numbers are a complete sham - if you don't see that, then likewise I haven't much to say to you.

The official numbers can't be anything other than lab-confirmed positives.

The HSPC is also keeping track of 'possible' and 'probable' cases for clinical management purposes.

Testing will never find all cases as many are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms.

Testing criteria have also changed so that the testing is directed where it will be most useful and will change again to broaden the symptom list as our testing capacity has increased.

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casedefinitions/

Metroid diorteM

So it was the biolab. Finger of blame needs to point straight there.

Playing with fire.

Metroid diorteM

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/coronavirus-wuhan-lab-china-compete-us-sources

Hrududu

eagle eye wrote: »

I have five siblings ranging in age from mid thirties to fifty, all are married or with a partner. In total that's 12 adults and then our parents. From talking to my in-laws about their families theyveay everything is good do now we are talking about 37 adults in total and none of them have any issues. Then there's my friends and that numbers quite high and they are all doing well.
Basically I'm not aware of anybody struggling over this lockdown so I call bs on that guy.
I'm sure there are people suffering but it's miniscule and nothing neat the numbers he suggests.

Everyone I know is fine. This means everyone is fine. Anybody saying otherwise is lying.

tobefrank321

Amirani wrote: »

She wants Tony to guess the number of cases instead of just telling us the ones confirmed with a positive test. I think this is a bad idea.

Maybe write him a letter and he'll change his approach?

Nope, but Tony should caveat daily numbers by saying these are not accurate numbers, they don't reflect the real total out there, they aren't a reflection of where we really are at, and the likely number of cases is far higher.

That's important so that people don't decide to ignore restrictions, or that we think we have this under control.

In summary, the real number of cases are far worse than is being reported - exactly what "Mary" said. So there is no reason to doubt her.

AdamD

Metroid diorteM wrote: »

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/coronavirus-wuhan-lab-china-compete-us-sources

Fox news


Really???

amadangomor

Rvsmmnps wrote: »

�� Here are the official Coronavirus guidelines.?

You really aren't taking this well.

I'd say go and retreat into whatever imaginary perfect world that you think there should be.

The rest of of will live in reality and realise while not perfect, a lot of people are doing their best to save lives in an unprecedented situation.

laurah591

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I think everyone should remember that every new case you hear from now is because two people did not observe the rules of lockdown, social distancing, hand hygiene and cough etiquette.

Or your working in a care setting or any front line setting and bring it home to the family

An Ciarraioch

UK total will be over 860 today - 740 in England, 80 in Scotland, 18 in NI and about 30 in Wales (stats for there more approximate today).

Amirani

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Nope, but Tony should caveat daily numbers by saying these are not accurate numbers, they don't reflect the real total out there, they aren't a reflection of where we really are at, and the likely number of cases is far higher.

That's important so that people don't decide to ignore restrictions, or that we think we have this under control.

In summary, the real number of cases are far worse than is being reported - exactly what "Mary" said. So there is no reason to doubt her.

They've said that countless times. If they've stopped saying it, it's because it's incredibly obvious. They've never said that the reported number of cases equals the total number of cases.

You really think they're claiming to report the total number of infections? :D:D

Metroid diorteM

AdamD wrote: »

Fox news


Really???

Let me guess. You get your news from Twitter?

Curious_Case

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I'm going to share a theory reluctantly, as it doesn't bode well for Ireland unless we keep hammering home and following social distancing;

I think how social a country's people will play a factor in all of this. Italians all hug each other, the Spanish are big into lots of big family gatherings and are very social.

And the Irish? Well, do I even need to say how social we are?

Now compare that to countries that are socially cold and that have - last I checked - done ok with this; Germany and Japan

So I think 7 factors will come into play when all is said and done in the stats and the Maths of this:

• How densely populated a city or country is (I'm a stressed Dubliner)

• How fast a country's government locked down and how much they've implemented it (I still think Ireland is in "lockdown" and further measures (like in Dubai) are needed)

• How social a country's people are

• How modern and capable a country's heath infrastructure is (I don't know how Africa isn't absolutely riddled with this yet. I believe mass amounts of deaths are simply been put down to "just another day in Africa")

• How a country is testing and how many they are testing

• How a country is recording and not recording Covid fatalities. Some are counting Nursing Home fatalities, some aren't. Some are recording Covid as the reason for death when - for example - a patient was absolutely banjaxed with pnuemonia or similar before they got Covid. In some cases I feel Covid only attributed to 10% of their passing. But the certificate will still say "Covid". So there's under reporting and over reporting all over the world

• The age demographics of a country. Many have said that Italy having so many over 70s played a big part to their huge numbers

Very good analysis

How about adding "level of remoteness" and "no. of land borders" ?

Ireland is small and lightly populated on one hand but we don't benefit fully from being an island as no. of land borders = 1

Significantly, we are far from remote as we are in close proximity to the UK mainland and Europe

tobefrank321

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

The official numbers can't be anything other than lab-confirmed positives.

The HSPC is also keeping track of 'possible' and 'probable' cases for clinical management purposes.

Testing will never find all cases as many are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms.

Testing criteria have also changed so that the testing is directed where it will be most useful and will change again to broaden the symptom list as our testing capacity has increased.

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casedefinitions/

Not my words, Nolans - "For every 5 cases we find, there is at least another 5 cases we don't".

Do you understand the impact of that in terms of contact tracing alone? Asymptomatic spreaders, spreading it through the community. Not to mention the long waiting times for symptomatic people to get tested.

Which means there is substantial official underreporting of cases.

Which in turn means "Mary" was right. You accept when someone says the official daily figures of new cases are a huge understatement, they are speaking the truth?

That's why its important to put a massive Asterix beside new daily case numbers. They are basically nonsense and not to be believed as an accurate picture of where we are.

colmtheperson

colmtheperson wrote: »

Just thinking, if it took 3 weeks for Mary Lou McDonald to get her results then I assume the daily updates we get are from up to 3 weeks ago? Ie the start of the lockdown?

Its variable, and we are approaching the end of the backlog. People for lower risk groups are likely to have been waiting up to 3 weeks, but patients or in hospital or at higher risk are prioritised. Would like to see the data by test date. My instinct, based on rate of increase to ICU, tells me we probably passed peak cases in the last 5 to 7 days, and our death figures will lag this by 10-14 days

Rvsmmnps

amadangomor wrote: »

You really aren't taking this well.

I'd say go and retreat into whatever imaginary perfect world that you think there should be.

The rest of of will live in reality and realise while not perfect, a lot of people are doing their best to save lives in an unprecedented situation.

I'm more worried about how civil governments are going to control barbaric behavior.How naive and distracted many people are

wakka12

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

UK total will be over 860 today - 740 in England, 80 in Scotland, 18 in NI and about 30 in Wales (stats for there more approximate today).

Those numbers are massive for Scotland, Wales, NI considering the size of each of them

tobefrank321

Amirani wrote: »

They've said that countless times. If they've stopped saying it, it's because it's incredibly obvious. They've never said that the reported number of cases equals the total number of cases.

You really think they're claiming to report the total number of infections? :D:D

So you admit Mary was right? The real number of cases is far higher than is reported.

If you had simply said that at the start, it would have saved everyone a lot of time and effort.

Amirani

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Which in turn means "Mary" was right. You accept when someone says the official daily figures of new cases are a huge understatement, they are speaking the truth?

That's why its important to put a massive Asterix beside new daily case numbers.

They're not the "new daily case numbers".

They're the "new confirmed cases" from labs. It's in every press briefing.