Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

MrMusician18

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I think everyone should remember that every new case you hear from now is because two people did not observe the rules of lockdown, social distancing, hand hygiene and cough etiquette.

No its not. Hospitals, care homes and peoples own homes probably account for the vast majority of new cases

auspicious

auspicious wrote: »

Does anyone have the latest HSE coronavirus cases map, or a link to, which doesn't blur when zoomed in?

want to see if your neighbour has it?

DevilsHaircut

Amirani wrote: »

They're not the "new daily case numbers".

They're the "new confirmed cases" from labs. It's in every press briefing.

Paul Cullen has been missing the point too: 'from this it is clear our official figures are based entirely on laboratory-tested cases.' As opposed to what?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/nursing-homes-and-coronavirus-why-the-numbers-don-t-add-up-1.4229722

tobefrank321

Amirani wrote: »

They're not the "new daily case numbers".

They're the "new confirmed cases" from labs. It's in every press briefing.

Nice word play.

Fine - you accept that new confirmed cases are a huge understatement of reality?

A simple yes or no will do.

Curious_Case

Rvsmmnps wrote: »

I'm more worried about how civil governments are going to control barbaric behavior.How naive and distracted many people are

Why become barbaric?

We're being paid money to get a really good range of food in the shops

We've got electricity & water

We're actually beginning to realise that our lives, at worst, are much better than the lives of many impoverished groups, refugees, etc.

1641

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

870 new deaths recorded in the UK. (total 13,828)

So increase by 75% to get an estimate of total deaths, including care homes -



1522 (and 24,199 cumulative).

caveat emptor

I'd really hate to work in these labs. :eek:

Experts know the new coronavirus is not a bioweapon. They disagree on whether it could have leaked from a research lab

Seems these bat coronaviruses were routinely studied at Biosafety Level 2 labs.

https://thebulletin.org/2020/03/experts-know-the-new-coronavirus-is-not-a-bioweapon-they-disagree-on-whether-it-could-have-leaked-from-a-research-lab/

growleaves

No its not. Hospitals, care homes and peoples own homes probably account for the vast majority of new cases

Yeah but scapegoating people is fun. So there.

bekker

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

Paul Cullen has been missing the point too: 'from this it is clear our official figures are based entirely on laboratory-tested cases.' As opposed to what?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/nursing-homes-and-coronavirus-why-the-numbers-don-t-add-up-1.4229722

Please quote in context, not selectively in an attempt to prove a point.

'But what about suspected cases? People who had not been tested before they died?

According to HSE chief clinical officer Dr Colm Henry, the doctor filling out a death cert “will give his or her best opinion of the cause of death in the context of a new illness which is lab-confirmed”.

From this it is clear our official figures are based entirely on laboratory-tested cases. Eventually, when death certs are filed within the required three-month period, further cases will be logged that add to the figures.

The Coroners Service has instructed doctors to swab test deceased patients with respiratory failure or “circumstantial suspicion” for Covid-19, but this has not been happening all the time, internal correspondence appears to show.'

Dr. Myra Cullinane, the Dublin Coroner is already complaining of incorrect death certificates. cf IT today.

Amirani

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Nice word play.

Fine - you accept that new confirmed cases are a huge understatement of reality?

A simple yes or no will do.

Yes.

It's still the right number to report though. Without more widespread testing, it's pointless trying to guess the total number.

tobefrank321

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

Paul Cullen has been missing the point too: 'from this it is clear our official figures are based entirely on laboratory-tested cases.' As opposed to what?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/nursing-homes-and-coronavirus-why-the-numbers-don-t-add-up-1.4229722

We simply don't know how many cases we have. No country does.

"Testing" put simply is literally a case of putting your finger in the air to determine if numbers are rising or falling. Its no better than an estimate.

Confirmed cases are a fraction of the real number of cases, even Nolan and Holahan have said that.

growleaves

Las Vegas mayor demands end to Nevada coronavirus lockdown

"This shutdown has become one of total insanity."

tobefrank321

tobefrank321 wrote: »

You missed Marys entire point.

Why am I not surprised?

Her point was the daily cases are a shambles - they are a fraction of the real number of cases.

You get it now?

If it makes you feel better and helps you sleep well tonight, pretend we have this under control. Good Lad.

Nowhere has an accurate measure of daily cases, just those tested. We can only report facts - confirmed cases, hospitalisations, ICU admissions, deaths...All of these give us a detailed picture and ICU admissions and deaths are only true objective measures. Cases is dependent on testing, prioritisation and people presenting for test. Hospitalisation was high in early stage as even those with minor symptoms were being isolated. And ICU admissions are telling us things are beginning to come under control. But if you want to tell yourself a backlog from 3 weeks ago tells us things are spinning wildly out of control, off you go

Rvsmmnps

Curious_Case wrote: »

Why become barbaric?

We're being paid money to get a really good range of food in the shops

We've got electricity & water

We're actually beginning to realise that our lives, at worst, are much better than the lives of many impoverished groups, refugees, etc.

Where does the money come from?

KiKi III

growleaves wrote: »

Las Vegas mayor demands end to Nevada coronavirus lockdown

"This shutdown has become one of total insanity."

Meanwhile, the governor who has the actual power says... https://www.nevadaappeal.com/news/nevada-nowhere-close-to-easing-virus-restrictions-governor-says/

blade1

Any chance they cancel the upcoming bank holidays and give them to us down the line.
What's the point having them in a lockdown.
One just gone all I did was sit on the couch eating rubbish.

cloudatlas

Mwengwe wrote: »

Not hard to have some basic respect for the deceased

And it would have been disrespectful if I had named the people and linked to the articles. The media is not telling the truth and the truth is that obesity makes it harder for people to fight this. They should tell the truth so people can change, not print 'a fit person' has just died, which isn't true.

The message should get out there that people should quit smoking and lose weight in order to improve their health and chances of survival if they catch the virus.

Edit: it's likely that two of my friends who live together had it. They said they had chest tightness, chest pain, felt generally ill etc., One was overweight and smoked the other wasn't. Can you guess which one took longer to get better?

fritzelly

See the lab conspiracy theorists are still alive and well

Spencer Brown

blade1 wrote: »

Any chance they cancel the upcoming bank holidays and give them to us down the line.
What's the point having them in a lockdown.
One just gone all I did was sit on the couch eating rubbish.

Why would they? They're trying to help businesses, giving all their staff a free day off / entitlement to extra pay in a few months time isn't going to help businesses.

blade1

Spencer Brown wrote: »

Why would they? They're trying to help businesses, giving all their staff a free day off / entitlement to extra pay in a few months time isn't going to help businesses.

It's not a free day.
It's just moving them

eagle eye

Hrududu wrote:

Everyone I know is fine. This means everyone is fine. Anybody saying otherwise is lying.

Well if you read my whole post you'd see I was talking about the high numbers he claims.

tobefrank321

Deleted User wrote: »

Nowhere has an accurate measure of daily cases, just those tested. We can only report facts - confirmed cases, hospitalisations, ICU admissions, deaths...All of these give us a detailed picture and ICU admissions and deaths are only true objective measures. Cases is dependent on testing, prioritisation and people presenting for test. Hospitalisation was high in early stage as even those with minor symptoms were being isolated. And ICU admissions are telling us things are beginning to come under control. But if you want to tell yourself a backlog from 3 weeks ago tells us things are spinning wildly out of control, off you go

The non backlog numbers are slowly beginning to reflect reality. We all accept real time (<48 hour turnaround) is a more accurate reflection of where we are currently. But the non backlog numbers are still high.

The government cannot use the backlog as an excuse from next Monday onwards. And the labs have said they now have spare capacity.

They need to put in place a proper testing regime, all cases turned around in less than 48 hours, and aim for a constant baseline of tests - eg 1500 tests a day. We won't catch every case, but at least we will know a rough trend.

And no more clowns saying we can now do 5000, 10000 or 15000 tests a day, only to discover there isn't enough reagent long term to sustain this. We will be testing for covid 19 daily for at least a year or until a vaccine becomes available.

DevilsHaircut

Paul Cullen also erroneously says: 'Many older people dying with Covid-19 also have underlying conditions and it is no easy task to determine what they died of, as opposed to what they died with.'

Our reporting of confirmed cases is of those who 'died with' not 'died of' Covid-19.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/nursing-homes-and-coronavirus-why-the-numbers-don-t-add-up-1.4229722

KiKi III

KiKi III wrote: »

Meanwhile, the governor who has the actual power says... https://www.nevadaappeal.com/news/nevada-nowhere-close-to-easing-virus-restrictions-governor-says/

I take it the mayor and governer are different parties, or the mayor is running for senate or wishes to primary the governer

eagle eye

Deleted User wrote:

I take it the mayor and governer are different parties, or the mayor is running for senate or wishes to primary the governer

Or is in the pocket of the casino owners.

BattleCorp

Rvsmmnps wrote: »

I'm more worried about how civil governments are going to control barbaric behavior.How naive and distracted many people are

I personally like the AR15 technique for controlling barbaric behaviour.

Jinglejangle69

Just heard there is new memos going around in the HSE today the community spread is huge and the restrictions aren't working.

They are calling vulnerable people who aren't over 70 encouraging them to cocoon.

eagle eye

BattleCorp wrote:

I personally like the AR15 technique for controlling barbaric behaviour.

I think the hurley should come before that.

growleaves

I take it the mayor and governer are different parties, or the mayor is running for senate or wishes to primary the governer

I recall reading that the Mayor asked the Governor for a shutdown four weeks ago.

Now that there isn't a huge amount of confirmed cases and online casino gaming platforms are eating them alive she obviously doesn't think its worth it. But then millions of deaths were predicted in Fauci's original model before the numbers were revised downwards.

Atlantic City is also shut down.

MrMusician18

Deleted User wrote: »

No its not. Hospitals, care homes and peoples own homes probably account for the vast majority of new cases

And in each and every one of those cases a sick person brought it into that setting and the recipient didn't wash their hands before touching their face.

Poorside

blade1 wrote: »

Any chance they cancel the upcoming bank holidays and give them to us down the line.
What's the point having them in a lockdown.
One just gone all I did was sit on the couch eating rubbish.

Some people are still in work and very glad of the extra day this week.

Will we expect to see a lower rate of disease and old age related deaths in the next few years? No doubt a large proportion of those dying would have had a limited life expectancy

RobertKK

fritzelly wrote: »

See the lab conspiracy theorists are still alive and well

Accidents can and do happen, and even the Washington Post has written about US cables that stated their concerns over the lab in Wuhan back in 2018 and the lack of qualified technicians and the risks it posed.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/editorial/opinion--us-diplomatic-cables-warned-of-wuhan-lab-safety-issues-the-world-needs-answers/2020/04/16/936e1ece-b717-4b4d-afe9-11e2f1590781_video.html

Jinglejangle69

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Just heard there is new memos going around in the HSE today the community spread is huge and the restrictions aren't working.

They are calling vulnerable people who aren't over 70 encouraging them to cocoon.

source

Higgins5473

Was it disclosed that the 23 year old that died had any kind of underlying health problems? Very young, awful.

Jinglejangle69

[Deleted User] wrote: »

source

A friend who is listed as vulnerable got the call this morning.

The community spread is huge and restrictions aren't working.

Amirani

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Just heard there is new memos going around in the HSE today the community spread is huge and the restrictions aren't working.

This isn't true.

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

They are calling vulnerable people who aren't over 70 encouraging them to cocoon.

This has always been the case, it wasn't limited to over 70s.

MrMusician18

MrMusician18 wrote: »

And in each and every one of those cases a sick person brought it into that setting and the recipient didn't wash their hands before touching their face.

You do not know that. Prolonged exposure in anything less than full respirator PPE can result in infection. The expectation of asking people to remain at home was not to stop spread, but restrict it, primarily to the home. It is nearly impossible to prevent spread within a home.

Iamabeliever

Don't want to jump the gun but it's quite clear good weather is having a huge impact on this virus.

Jinglejangle69

Amirani wrote: »

This isn't true.



This has always been the case, it wasn't limited to over 70s.

OK fine don't believe me.

I'm just saying what my friend who wouldn't lie was told over the phone.

I don't care whether you believe it or not.

ArchXStanton

Iamabeliever wrote: »

Don't want to jump the gun but it's quite clear good weather is having a huge impact on this virus.

In what way?

Mental Mickey

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

A friend who is listed as vulnerable got the call this morning.

The community spread is huge and restrictions aren't working.

Is there an OFFICIAL source for this? Myself and my wife are cocooning but we haven't received any such calls?

growleaves

A friend who is listed as vulnerable got the call this morning.

The community spread is huge and restrictions aren't working.

A man I know under 70 who has conditions told me today that he got a call from his doctor asking him not to do his own shopping and to stay in.

Alf Veedersane

'Chinese whispers' has sinister undertones now...

easypazz

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

A friend who is listed as vulnerable got the call this morning.

The community spread is huge and restrictions aren't working.

Source?

Amirani

growleaves wrote: »

A man I know under 70 who has conditions told me today that he got a call from his doctor asking him not to do his own shopping and to stay in.

This has been the advice for at risk groups all along: https://www2.hse.ie/conditions/coronavirus/cocooning.html

Cocooning is for people who:

• are over 70 years of age - even if you're fit and well
• are solid organ transplant recipients
• have cancer and are undergoing active chemotherapy or radical radiotherapy for lung cancer
• have cancers of the blood or bone marrow such as leukaemia, lymphoma or myeloma who are at any stage of treatment
• are having immunotherapy or other continuing antibody treatments for cancer
• are having other targeted cancer treatments which can affect the immune system, such as protein kinase inhibitors or PARP inhibitors
• have had bone marrow or stem cell transplants in the last 6 months, or who are still taking immunosuppression drugs
• have severe respiratory conditions including cystic fibrosis, severe asthma and severe COPD
• have rare diseases and inborn errors of metabolism that significantly increase the risk of infections (such as SCID, homozygous sickle cell)
• are on immunosuppression therapies sufficient to significantly increase risk of infection
• are pregnant and have significant heart disease, congenital or acquired

If you are unsure whether or not you need to cocoon or not, talk to your doctor.

History Queen

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

OK fine don't believe me.

I'm just saying what my friend who wouldn't lie was told over the phone.

I don't care whether you believe it or not.

Is there any chance you or your friend misunderstood? My mother in law is under 70 but vulnerable because of an underlying illness and she was called and advised to cocoon weeks ago. The nurse who rang her said she was ringing several of that particular consultants patients that day to offer the same advice. I wouldn't see that as any more than good clinical practice and would think your friend should have known/been advised to cocoon sooner.

easypazz

growleaves wrote: »

A man I know under 70 who has conditions told me today that he got a call from his doctor asking him not to do his own shopping and to stay in.

Did the doctor give as a reason being

"The restrictions ARE NOT working"

growleaves

Did the doctor give as a reason being

"The restrictions ARE NOT working"

No.

Alf Veedersane

growleaves wrote: »

A man I know under 70 who has conditions told me today that he got a call from his doctor asking him not to do his own shopping and to stay in.

People under 70 with certain conditions were supposed to be cocooning since the end of March