Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

An Ciarraioch

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1250808701914689538

Mic 1972

lillycakes2 wrote: »

How can grandparents still cuddle their grandkids when restrictions are lifted or just come out of cocooning?

Without a cure or vaccine how safe do you rekon it will be to have grankids playing with elderly people?

Maggie Benson

McDermotX wrote: »

Yep......was only down in the local one earlier. Too many husband and wife duos waiting in the queue outside, along with a group of 4 teen girls (under 20 years of age anyway) trying to walk in at the same time with each other.

Of course, said group are let in one at a time, before regrouping inside to presumably form a Covid Attack formation up and down the aisles.

Dunderheads.

Couples may well be shopping for more than one household?

Iamabeliever

statto25 wrote: »

Two friends of mine got results back today after over 2 weeks waiting, both negative in the same area but different doctors. I wasnt in direct contact with them obviously to see how sick they were but according to both their doctors, they are hugely surprised at the negative result and one GP commented that most of the results sent back in one particular batch were negative. I dont want to put on my tinfoil hat but but one of these people has a serious medical condition and was sick for over 3 weeks and still isnt 100% so I cant believe they didnt come back as a positive.

Samples left that long should not be tested. End off - false reading are as bad as positive ones

Quantum Erasure

SCOOP 64 wrote: »

Whats the max you can invite to a BBQ party with the restrictions?

How big is your garden?

SCOOP 64

one man clappin wrote: »

According to Priti Patel, three thousand, seventy eighty hundred nine thousand and thirty two hundred fifty five.

I need a bigger BBQ.

Stheno

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1250808701914689538

That's positive news

SCOOP 64

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

How big is your garden?

About a Acre.

Achasanai

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

They are calling vulnerable people who aren't over 70 encouraging them to cocoon.

I thought vulnerable people of any age were already supposed to be cocooning?

Iamabeliever

lillycakes2 wrote: »

How can grandparents still cuddle their grandkids when restrictions are lifted or just come out of cocooning?

It's the same as burgers and BSE

wakka12

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1250808701914689538

Youd feckin hope R0 but be below 1 after a month of this

caveat emptor

FVP3 wrote: »

Well yes, a R0 of < 1, is the definite end of the epidemic. A R0 of 1 is pretty much there. ( Note I say of the epidemic not the virus, small numbers of people still get infected).

The guy I was addressing didn't seem to get that people recover from this. So he kept adding the numbers cumulatively.

Not pretty much there. Angela will explain it for you. An R0 of 1.1 and Germany's health system (most ICU capacity in Europe) will be overwhelmed by October.

https://twitter.com/BenjAlvarez1/status/1250563198081740800?s=20

Mic 1972

McDermotX wrote: »

Yep......was only down in the local one earlier. Too many husband and wife duos waiting in the queue outside, along with a group of 4 teen girls (under 20 years of age anyway) trying to walk in at the same time with each other.

Of course, said group are let in one at a time, before regrouping inside to presumably form a Covid Attack formation up and down the aisles.

Dunderheads.

That's the stuff that keeps the virus going for months. Restrictions were bland in Spain and Italy too at the beginning until they had to pull strict measures in place

McDermotX

Maggie Benson wrote: »

Couples may well be shopping for more than one household?

Irrelevant IMO. Shop separately. Don't mingle.

Q'ing together outside, walking up and down the aisles together. One couple I spotted today were walking about with a one basket between them. Not even a trolley.

It's not difficult, but it still appears to not get through some skulls.

tobefrank321

fly_agaric wrote: »

This disease seems to spread easily + growth of cases takes off like a rocket when people are behaving "normally". That course of action will I presume implode the health service at some point and lead to a pretty ghastly outcome + render last few weeks efforts pointless. Can't see that happening (even if some restrictions are lifted next month).

There'd have to be a lead up to it, where we clear the hospitals in preparation, stock up massively on PPE and figure out how to decontaminate PPE. We wouldn't have sports events all at once, we'd stagger them.

At the moment, something like 20% of cases end up in hospital, but asymptomatic ones don't. So a large number of cases don't go near hospitals.

So, either we slow down the spread to almost a halt which of course would require extreme measures such as isolating medical staff, positive cases, nursing homes and so on.

Or we speed up the spread so most of the population becomes immune and can move on with their lives. But this would still require isolation for medical staff and nursing homes.

At present we are in a holding pattern in between the two.

Stateofyou

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I think when covid19 came along first, there was a lot of uncertainty around it and fear of it. The more we learn about it, like anything the more we should be able to cope with it, long term. Its clear that 99% of kids for example will not be seriously impacted. The 1% who are should be given the best care in hospital. If we stretch out the herd immunity approach then we will of course see an unavoidable surge at various stages. We need to make a huge effort to prepare for this surge - Convert hotels to temporary hospitals, more ventilators, more icus beds, and PPE.

I should add that option 1 is my preference, to stamp it out completely.

We are failing to isolate positive cases properly, this seems to be the main failing in our approach. If someone tests positive, they need to be isolated, possibly in many of the vacant hotels we have at present. If they have strong symptoms of covid 19 they also should be isolated properly.

At the moment, our lockdown has way too many holes and flaws in it. You either go full lockdown for 2 or 3 months or you might as well not bother.

Kids may not be seriously impacted, but they are carriers so how do we manage schools opening? If they don't open (or childcare facilities) how do parents go back to work? I can't see a way out without reinfections ramping up again.

JP Liz V1

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1250808701914689538

Sorry it is this good news, does that mean not spreading?

ACitizenErased

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Sorry it is this good news, does that mean not spreading?

Anything under 1 means it is decreasing exponentially. I reckon we'll see a decrease in cases today (if not, tomorrow) when the backlog is removed.

silverharp

I see Belgium has the highest rate of deaths in the world 419 per million, do they have a nursing home problem?

statto25

Iamabeliever wrote: »

Samples left that long should not be tested. End off - false reading are as bad as positive ones

I totally agree which leads me to ask why were they tested then? Are we purposely keeping the numbers low so as to maintain calm with the restrictions in place? If the numbers were way higher which I believe they are, would the adherence to the rules be so successful?

Stheno

Briefing brought forwaard to 630

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1250800891541757955?s=19

An Ciarraioch

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Sorry it is this good news, does that mean not spreading?

Contained for now at least - that number could rise again if the easing of lockdowns in stages happens too quickly.

Richard Hillman

Richard Hillman wrote: »

My local tesco are doing well in limiting numbers but I did notice this week that there were a few couples knocking about. It is completely unnecessary for 2 able bodied people to be shopping. Standards are slipping. N

what do single parents with small kids do?

JP Liz V1

silverharp wrote: »

I see Belgium has the highest rate of deaths in the world 419 per million, do they have a nursing home problem?

For a minute stupid me thought all from Covid19

Larbre34

I don't think we are failing to isolate cases properly at all. The vast majority of people feeling ill are taking overt measures to isolate themselves in line with HSE guidance, there is a widespread attitude of presumptive positive. If we weren't, we wouldn't be seeing the R-0 stats of <1 we are seeing today.

Also, the severe surge does not seem to have materialised, they are not having to use the Garda College, UL, Citywest etc it would seem.

I'd say we have arrived in a far better place thus far, overall, than was feared.

castletownman

McDermotX wrote: »

Irrelevant IMO. Shop separately. Don't mingle.

Q'ing together outside, walking up and down the aisles together. One couple I spotted today were walking about with a one basket between them. Not even a trolley.

It's not difficult, but it still appears to not get through some skulls.

When the current lockdowns were first enforced, I saw a woman definitely over 70 (although looked fit and healthy for her age) doing the shopping, and going out to her car where who I assume was her daughter was waiting in the car for her. Surely the daughter could have done the shopping instead?

An Ciarraioch

silverharp wrote: »

I see Belgium has the highest rate of deaths in the world 419 per million, do they have a nursing home problem?

It's the most urbanised country outside of micro-states and city-states (97%), so population density is the major issue.

threeball

Stateofyou wrote: »

Kids may not be seriously impacted, but they are carriers so how do we manage schools opening? If they don't open (or childcare facilities) how do parents go back to work? I can't see a way out without reinfections ramping up again.

They will ramp up. The only thing the last 4 weeks was useful for was getting the systems in place, beds, ventilators, testing, possibly an app. Open it up and contain as best we can until we either have to shut down again or else get a medicine that dampens the effects.

ACitizenErased

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Anything under 1 means it is decreasing exponentially. I reckon we'll see a decrease in cases today (if not, tomorrow) when the backlog is removed.

I dont think is would be decreasing exponentially unless it got below 0.4

spookwoman

Stheno wrote: »

That's positive news

Lets hope it's not the same person supplying the numbers as the person doing up the daily report on the gov page.

road_high

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Anything under 1 means it is decreasing exponentially. I reckon we'll see a decrease in cases today (if not, tomorrow) when the backlog is removed.

Please God. The past few days have been awful. Increases in cases, extended lockdown, multiple deaths in care homes, relatively young frontline hospital workers dying.

road_high

Larbre34 wrote: »

I don't think we are failing to isolate cases properly at all. The vast majority of people feeling ill are taking overt measures to isolate themselves in line with HSE guidance, there is a widespread attitude of presumptive positive. If we weren't, we wouldn't be seeing the R-0 stats of <1 we are seeing today.

Also, the severe surge does not seem to have materialised, they are not having to use the Garda College, UL, Citywest etc it would seem.

I'd say we have arrived in a far better place thus far, overall, than was feared.

Good to hear it. They were preparing for the worst which is very wise given the circumstances and neighbouring countries experiences.

JP Liz V1

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Anything under 1 means it is decreasing exponentially. I reckon we'll see a decrease in cases today (if not, tomorrow) when the backlog is removed.

Some good news so

spookwoman

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1250817250505916417?s=20

quokula

statto25 wrote: »

Two friends of mine got results back today after over 2 weeks waiting, both negative in the same area but different doctors. I wasnt in direct contact with them obviously to see how sick they were but according to both their doctors, they are hugely surprised at the negative result and one GP commented that most of the results sent back in one particular batch were negative. I dont want to put on my tinfoil hat but but one of these people has a serious medical condition and was sick for over 3 weeks and still isnt 100% so I cant believe they didnt come back as a positive.

Other illnesses still exist. People still get the flu. Being sick doesn't automatically mean you must have this particular virus.

What Username Guidelines

Another jump in Italy 3,786 new cases and 525 new deaths

tobefrank321

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1250808701914689538

It would be interesting to see the methodologies.

If its down to 0.7, the temptation might be to aim to stamp it out altogether which would take another few months.

road_high

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Contained for now at least - that number could rise again if the easing of lockdowns in stages happens too quickly.

Is there any evidence of it going away over summer months?

satguy

I work in this hospital, mostly on computers and IT side of things, but this came as a shock.

“The deaths of over one third of the patients last weekend has shocked people in the local community,”

https://www.laoistoday.ie/2020/04/16/further-support-needed-for-st-fintans-staff-and-patients-say-laois-offaly-td/

A huge amount of the people I work with are just on C E Schemes,, and Community Employment (CE) was never really meant to replace trained nurses and other professionals.
In my area of this huge huge hospital CE staff out number paid pensionable staff 3 to 1.

rm212

spookwoman wrote: »

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1250817250505916417?s=20

Freed on bail unfortunately

JP Liz V1

Stheno wrote: »

Briefing brought forwaard to 630

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1250800891541757955?s=19

I dread these now especially when time changes, let's hope for decline decrease in numbers

Iamabeliever

statto25 wrote: »

I totally agree which leads me to ask why were they tested then? Are we purposely keeping the numbers low so as to maintain calm with the restrictions in place? If the numbers were way higher which I believe they are, would the adherence to the rules be so successful?

Ignorance is blind

wakka12

Lockdown in the UK extended until at least May 7th

bilston

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Another jump in Italy 3,786 new cases and 525 new deaths

Might be the Easter holiday lag. Numbers had been a lot lower recently.

ACitizenErased

Reminder we'll be seeing the new and updated modelling from Prof. Phillip Nolan at the 6:30 briefing. Worth tuning in.

An Ciarraioch

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Contained for now at least - that number could rise again if the easing of lockdowns in stages happens too quickly.

My view - 2 weeks of R0 below 1 and two further weeks to confirm it is being maintained - in which case they should plan for light easing from the 11th of May

is_that_so

Larbre34 wrote: »

I don't think we are failing to isolate cases properly at all. The vast majority of people feeling ill are taking overt measures to isolate themselves in line with HSE guidance, there is a widespread attitude of presumptive positive. If we weren't, we wouldn't be seeing the R-0 stats of <1 we are seeing today.

Also, the severe surge does not seem to have materialised, they are not having to use the Garda College, UL, Citywest etc it would seem.

I'd say we have arrived in a far better place thus far, overall, than was feared.

I think I saw a figure of 70 or so currently for Citywest.

An Ciarraioch

Deaths in Welsh care homes more than double compared with the same month last year:

https://nation.cymru/news/senedd-roundup-deaths-in-care-homes-in-wales-more-than-double-this-time-last-year/

SCOOP 64

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Another jump in Italy 3,786 new cases and 525 new deaths

Italy one of the worst-hit countries during the coronavirus pandemic, have re-opened thousands of businesses this week, with millions of workers heading back to their job.
Dont understand it myself.

is_that_so

Deleted User wrote: »

My view - 2 weeks of R0 below 1 and two further weeks to confirm it is being maintained - in which case they should plan for light easing from the 11th of May

I think they'll go with the original May 5th once the testing system is up and running. Not much information to be had from one extra week.