Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

BanditLuke

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

May is not happening so

Never had a chance if we are honest.

jobeenfitz

FVP3 wrote: »

So they can go out. Ive been stopped by cops too. And Spain has allowed non-essential workers to resume work, so we are in fact more locked down than Spain right now.

We are 32 days into lockdown in Spain. We are not allowed out for walks. We are allowed to go to the shop, chemist when necessary.

I was at the shop yesterday, my third time since lockdown. 90% or more are wearing masks.

Some workers have been allowed back this week.

Im hoping to be allowed out walking soon. We shall see. Atm I exercise on balcony or inside apartment.

Im not complaining, I know I'm here of my own accord.

ACitizenErased

Cue some ridiculous questions

polesheep

BanditLuke wrote: »

Never had a chance if we are honest.

That's the biggest 'if' since Justinian was a boy.

Ace2007

Given the nature of nursing homes, how would they successfully beat it?

woohoo!!!

The infection rate dropping below 1 is encouraging. Now is not the time to relax but to redouble our social distancing and hand hygiene. Nursing homes is massive concern, got to throw everything at it, that's our parents and grandparents.

RIP to the poor souls who have passed away.

PS, if a source is from Facebook or WhatsApp, it's BS, unless proven otherwise.

BanditLuke

polesheep wrote: »

This is beaten, bar in the nursing homes. We need to start moving on and throw huge resources at the nursing homes - something we should have done at the start.

Beaten you say. Maybe you need to inform the WHO.

statesaver

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

May is not happening so

Not watching the press conference. What do you mean by that, restrictions extended ? Please God no

0gac3yjefb5sv7

BanditLuke wrote: »

Never had a chance if we are honest.

Of course it is...he basically just alluded to it

ACitizenErased

Ace2007 wrote: »

Given the nature of nursing homes, how would they successfully beat it?

Put nursing homes into “lockdown”? Isolate each resident and move them to isolation units if they have to.

is_that_so

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

May is not happening so

It is still likely to be a plan but with a very large health warning to proceed very cautiously.

Harry Palmr

The residential care aspect of this is going to be the "big fail" of this.

Rvsmmnps

BanditLuke wrote: »

For an island we need to be doing better.

Its a virus,pretty much a once in a lifetime occurrence.There is almost no plan just alot of effort and hope.Our efforts might have very little impact irregardless.

Any info on the bse injections effectiveness on the virus,or potential effectivness?

polesheep

Ace2007 wrote: »

Given the nature of nursing homes, how would they successfully beat it?

Throw professional hospital staff at it. Set up isolation. Full-on PPE. There is an awful lot that can be done if the will is there.

wakka12

Almost 0.1% of the population of the state of New york has died within the last 28 days. Really hard to fathom the scale of death there

smelly sock

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Put nursing homes into “lockdown”? Isolate each resident and move them to isolation units if they have to.

Id agree. But no way Govt. will pay for it.

JoeA3

statesaver wrote: »

Not watching the press conference. What do you mean by that, restrictions extended ?

I am watching it and I must be watching a very different presentation. Overall they seem very happy, quite confident that we are on top of it. The R0 value is below 1. They talked about scenarios where if restrictions are loosened in May, that they would do it carefully and monitor it over weeks. If the R0 spiked again over 1.3 or so, then restrictions would be reintroduced.

The above comments re “May not happening” are bollocks.

Hobgoblin11

Cheltenham clusters showing up now?

thomas 123

niallo27 wrote: »

Harris really is pulling figures out of his hole, 1700 dead this day next week if nothing was done. Italy had nobody near that before any restrictions. This would relate to about 20k deaths a day in Italy. I dont think bull**** like this is helping.

Yeah it screams “look at me, what a great job I’m doing”

I read nurses where sent on forced holiday from
Merlin park hospital in Galway as they brought in private nurses, then the next thing I read was a nurse going in to work in a nursing home on her own with one bottle of O2 between several patients a few of which died in her shift.

polesheep

is_that_so wrote: »

It is still likely to be a plan but with a very large health warning to proceed very cautiously.

Strip out the nursing home deaths and there is no reason why 5th of May is not still feasible.

rafatoni

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Put nursing homes into “lockdown”? Isolate each resident and move them to isolation units if they have to.

has to happen, sounds bad from Dr hoolohan.

Alf Veedersane

Mic 1972 wrote: »

same, 2 spots below italy

Italy are about 3 weeks ahead of Ireland in this...3/4 weeks ago, their hospitals were already overwhelmed. The video that Sky put up of the hospital in Bergamo was put up 4 weeks ago today.

Whatever the case number statistics, there's no comparison between where Ireland is today and where Italy was 4 weeks ago.

Fully accept that that's a timeline comparison and different demographics, risk factors etc may change timelines but I don't expect to see that level of clusterfúck here (touch wood)

polesheep

BanditLuke wrote: »

Beaten you say. Maybe you need to inform the WHO.

Maybe you need to start looking for a new outlet for your shi*tstirring so you are ahead of the game when this outlet ends.

mosii

BanditLuke wrote: »

For an island we need to be doing better.

I think the fact we are an Island is helping us big time,also the fact we have a relatively spread out population also helps.I think at the end of the day,if you take into account big Cities in other countries,such as Italy,Spain France USA etc,and such concentration of people,in these Cities,the case fatality Rate will be much the same worldwide.I actually think this will be around .5% rate,but im not qualified,just an opinion.

Kermit.de.frog

A serious and well timed warning from the press conference regarding relaxation of measures from 5th of May.

They will be reimposed as the cases spike again.

If\when the R0 value rises again health service overwhelmed without reimposistion possibly within 2 to 3 weeks.

In short this is going to run and run and it follows what the UK and Germany are saying which is life will be tough until there is a vaccine essentially.

SCOOP 64

is_that_so wrote: »

It is still likely to be a plan but with a very large health warning to proceed very cautiously.

Yes a plan but if not worded very carefully by the Goverment the weekend may2/3rd every business will be open on Tuesday 5th May, bar Hotels, Pubs, Cinemas,Restaurants.

Mic 1972

Curious_Case wrote: »

If, for instance, we were incurring 40 deaths per day that would be the same every day so no change.

That is what they mean when they refer to a zero rate of change, it means no longer getting worse but not yet getting better, the peak of the curve.

Deaths in the last few days

Mon = 14
Tue = 41
Wed = 38
Today = 43

I'm seeing an increase here

Ficheall

Rvsmmnps wrote: »

Any info on the bse injections effectiveness on the virus,or potential effectivness?

Can't imagine BSE will help, despite the copious amounts of bullsh*t.

polesheep

smelly sock wrote: »

Id agree. But no way Govt. will pay for it.

After what they have put into supporting the private hospitals, they should be hanged if they don't.

ACitizenErased

https://twitter.com/datavizireland/status/1250853198509879307?s=21

ednwireland

polesheep wrote: »

Strip out the nursing home deaths and there is no reason why 5th of May is not still feasible.

my mum is in a nursing home in the uk, they locked down before the lockdown here, they have individual en suite rooms they are basically locked in meals in their rooms. no cases in that home yet

An Ciarraioch

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Deaths in the last few days

Mon = 14
Tue = 41
Wed = 38
Today = 53

I'm seeing an increase here

That's 43 for today.

Ace2007

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Put nursing homes into “lockdown”? Isolate each resident and move them to isolation units if they have to.

polesheep wrote: »

Throw professional hospital staff at it. Set up isolation. Full-on PPE. There is an awful lot that can be done if the will is there.

But you say lock down for instance - the residents have been that for last 5/6 weeks - not as if they are out and about. Staff have to come and go.

Isolation in some public nursing homes might be quite hard given the amount of space and residents. I assume most Private homes already have mainly single rooms anyway?

It's not as if we can move residents to another empty nursing home, or indeed would nursing homes with space accept a resident from a home known to have the outbreak?

stephenjmcd

ACitizenErased wrote: »

High level of confidence “that the reproduction number is now below 1” - Prof. Nolan

He was very matter of fact now saying its below 1, but also urged caution that we cant afford a spike in R.

CMO also quite confident that its spread in community now is very low

Bobtheman

When will schools open ?

Kermit.de.frog

niallo27 wrote: »

Harris really is pulling figures out of his hole, 1700 dead this day next week if nothing was done. Italy had nobody near that before any restrictions. This would relate to about 20k deaths a day in Italy. I dont think bull**** like this is helping.

Italy didn't give it a chance to reach the level it could have reached before they imposed measures

Are people pretending they don't understand the basic dynamics or what?

SCOOP 64

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Deaths in the last few days

Mon = 14
Tue = 41
Wed = 38
Today = 53

I'm seeing an increase here

sorry missed the update, thought it was 43 today?

is_that_so

SCOOP 64 wrote: »

Yes a plan but if not worded very carefully by the Goverment the weekend may2/3rd every business will be open on Tuesday 5th may, bar Hotels, Pubs, Cinemas,Restaurants.

We'll see a timetable well in advance and it will be guided/approved for NEPHT. I'd say this current restriction will be reversed and construction and some shops will be able to open.

Curious_Case

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Deaths in the last few days

Mon = 14
Tue = 41
Wed = 38
Today = 53

I'm seeing an increase here

Yes, me too!

But, you weren't querying the existence of a decrease

You were querying the existence of a SIGN of a decrease

mean gene

statesaver wrote: »

Not watching the press conference. What do you mean by that, restrictions extended ? Please God no

just his opinion take it with a pinch of salt just like mine

keynes

ACitizenErased wrote: »

High level of confidence “that the reproduction number is now below 1” - Prof. Nolan

But how meaningful is this figure in an environment where restrictions are lifted? Up in the moon, the R_0 is zero, but we'd all scoff at the relevance of that statistic

Ace2007

polesheep wrote: »

Strip out the nursing home deaths and there is no reason why 5th of May is not still feasible.

There was only 8 today? so who were the others?

Thelonious Monk

jobeenfitz wrote: »

We are 32 days into lockdown in Spain. We are not allowed out for walks. We are allowed to go to the shop, chemist when necessary.

I was at the shop yesterday, my third time since lockdown. 90% or more are wearing masks.

Some workers have been allowed back this week.

Im hoping to be allowed out walking soon. We shall see. Atm I exercise on balcony or inside apartment.

Im not complaining, I know I'm here of my own accord.

Dad?

Mic 1972

Alf Veedersane wrote: »

Italy are about 3 weeks ahead of Ireland in this...3/4 weeks ago, their hospitals were already overwhelmed. The video that Sky put up of the hospital in Bergamo was put up 4 weeks ago today.

Whatever the case number statistics, there's no comparison between where Ireland is today and where Italy was 4 weeks ago.

Fully accept that that's a timeline comparison and different demographics, risk factors etc may change timelines but I don't expect to see that level of clusterfúck here (touch wood)

I'm comparing Ireland today to Italy today, not 4 weeks ago
The total cases is the sum of all cases from the beginning, if anything Ireland was faster than Italy to get to this level

ACitizenErased

Did George just insinuate that the HSE are trying to kill elderly people?

fullstop

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Deaths in the last few days

Mon = 14
Tue = 41
Wed = 38
Today = 53

I'm seeing an increase here

Your figures are incorrect.

polesheep

Ace2007 wrote: »

But you say lock down for instance - the residents have been that for last 5/6 weeks - not as if they are out and about. Staff have to come and go.

Isolation in some public nursing homes might be quite hard given the amount of space and residents. I assume most Private homes already have mainly single rooms anyway?

It's not as if we can move residents to another empty nursing home, or indeed would nursing homes with space accept a resident from a home known to have the outbreak?

Staff come and go in the hospitals and they manage to contain spread. The staff in the nursing homes are the real heroes in this pandemic. They're like soldiers sent into war without ammunition or even basic training. They need urgent support from the highly trained hospital staff.

is_that_so

Bobtheman wrote: »

When will schools open ?

Might be sometime in May. I think they'll be watching Denmark and other countries to decide.

fullstop

Bobtheman wrote: »

When will schools open ?

Thursday next week most likely.

Mic 1972

SCOOP 64 wrote: »

sorry missed the update, thought it was 43 today?

You are correct it's 43, my bad
but it's still an increase. In fact this is now our new peak



Mon = 14
Tue = 41
Wed = 38
Today = 43