Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

Alf Veedersane

DARK-KNIGHT wrote: »

Realistically we are 7 days or so off hitting the 100 deaths per day

What's the basis for that?

7 days ago there were 28 deaths. 9 days ago there were 36. It doesn't appear to be growing at a rate that suggests in 7 days it will be 100/day.

wakka12

I wonder is it a glitch? Other than the USA I dont think any country has the capacity to test anywhere near that number in a day, presumably they tested at least 60,000 or so to get a figure of 17,000 positives

Strazdas

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Best to try to eliminate this altogether in the next few months rather than lifting and imposing restrictions until a vaccine.

The metrics scientist at the briefing said this would be completely pointless. You could reduce case numbers to 0 in Ireland, but the virus could / would reappear again two days later (someone getting off a plane). He was pointing out you cannot live forever under a lockdown.....this is not North Korea.

crossman47

hotmail.com wrote: »

A lot of the other countries can publish their data at the same time every day. Why can't we.

I imagine we could if they didn't have to hold a press conference.

boardise

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The death toll is going to increase significantly because of the nursing home clusters, I’m not sure why people are surprised by the death toll today

Some not surprised at all -just eager to score political points to try make the government look bad. Kinda funny really it's so blatant.

Mic 1972

ek motor wrote: »

17000 new cases in France. They must be testing a LOT.

They should. At the moment they have one of the lowest test rate in Europe
We are doing much better

Coyote

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Tests per million


Italy = 19,490
Ireland = 18,358


they are absolutely comparable

they are not comparable, Italy is much later in ramping up testing so they have a much higher number of cases per tested, most of there testing has been of people in hospitals.
if you look at the number of tests and confirmed cases per country and the deaths you can see they are not comparable
Belgium and Italy have not done enough tests to give an idea of the real number of cases
Belgium is only twice the size of ireland but 5 times the number of deaths per head of population


Edit to add "per head of population" for Belgium

Mic 1972

Strazdas wrote: »

The metrics scientist at the briefing said this would be completely pointless. You could reduce case numbers to 0 in Ireland, but the virus could / would reappear again two days later (someone getting off a plane). He was pointing out you cannot live forever under a lockdown.....this is not North Korea.

We can reduce the number of total cases going around infecting everybody and then slowly reopening activities while maintaining social distancing and other measures. China is open now, they managed

wakka12

Coyote wrote: »

they are not comparable, Italy is much later in ramping up testing so they have a much higher number of cases per tested, most of there testing has been of people in hospitals.
if you look at the number of tests and confirmed cases per country and the deaths you can see they are not comparable
Belgium and Italy have not done enough tests to give an idea of the real number of cases
Belgium is only twice the size of ireland but 5 times the number of deaths

Ten times the number of deaths

Sober Crappy Chemis

Mic 1972 wrote: »

We can reduce the number of total cases going around infecting everybody and then slowly reopening activities while maintaining social distancing and other measures. China is open now, they managed

Psssttt ... China might not be telling the truth.

GeorgeBailey

The general running order on boards for the numbers briefing:

-What time is the briefing today?
-It should be the same time everyday
-They have more important things to do

[numbers announced]
-x number of cases
-What time is the briefing today?
-x number of cases
-x number of cases
-x number of cases
-Curve is flattening
-No sign of a flattening of the curve
-Do you even understand what flattening of the curve means
-x number of cases
-RIP to all those who died
-We're looking good guys
-Looking good? People have died. How is that looking good
-RIP to all those who died
-This is a shambles
-I actually think the goverment are doing a great job
-Glad I'm not in the States
-Glad/annoyed Sinn Fein aren't in government
-What time is the briefing?

Coyote

wakka12 wrote: »

Ten times the number of deaths

yes but only 4-5 times per head of population

crossman47

polesheep wrote: »

Throw professional hospital staff at it. Set up isolation. Full-on PPE. There is an awful lot that can be done if the will is there.

That may be possible now but remember at the start we feared the hospitals would be overrun

boardise

Mic 1972 wrote: »

How can an increment be considered a decrease?
Reality can be sugarcoated in many ways but numbers speak for themselves

Actually numbers don't 'speak for themselves'. They are -and have to be - interpreted according to certain assumptions and contexts. 'Spin' is simply a slang word for interpretation.
Everyone spins . Who goes out of their way to present things in a manner that makes them look bad or worse than need be ?

Mic 1972

Coyote wrote: »

they are not comparable, Italy is much later in ramping up testing so they have a much higher number of cases per tested, most of there testing has been of people in hospitals.
if you look at the number of tests and confirmed cases per country and the deaths you can see they are not comparable
Belgium and Italy have not done enough tests to give an idea of the real number of cases
Belgium is only twice the size of ireland but 5 times the number of deaths

That's incorrect. Italy has tested a lot of people in and outside of hospitals, they even went as far as testing an entire village of a few thousands people where one of the initial clusters appeared.
Italy and Ireland are similar in both number of tests per million and number of cases per million. Luckily enough we are doing better with the number of death per million which remains the most important metrics here

stephenjmcd

wakka12 wrote: »

I wonder is it a glitch? Other than the USA I dont think any country has the capacity to test anywhere near that number in a day, presumably they tested at least 60,000 or so to get a figure of 17,000 positives

No glitch, looks like they've included previous cases now that weren't reported

https://twitter.com/NorbertElekes/status/1250863267892932608?s=19

Mic 1972

boardise wrote: »

Actually numbers don't 'speak for themselves'. They are -and have to be - interpreted according to certain assumptions and contexts. 'Spin' is simply a slang word for interpretation.
Everyone spins . Who goes out of their way to present things in a manner that makes them look bad or worse than need be ?

I'm only reporting numbers, they are available to everyone on worldometer
some people like to sugarcoat, i dont

Kermit.de.frog

724 new cases of coronavirus in Singapore, a new record for the city.

The situation there has quickly reversed in the space of 10 days.

Shows why caution is needed going forward.

Strazdas

Mic 1972 wrote: »

We can reduce the number of total cases going around infecting everybody and then slowly reopening activities while maintaining social distancing and other measures. China is open now, they managed

That was his point. Reduce the numbers down to manageable proportions but trying to get it down to 0 would be a total waste of time - it would be doable, but at the cost of your society no longer even existing at any meaningful level.

Coyote

Mic 1972 wrote: »

That's incorrect. Italy has tested a lot of people in and outside of hospitals, they even went as far as testing an entire village of a few thousands people where one of the initial clusters appeared.
Italy and Ireland are similar in both number of tests per million and number of cases per million. Luckily enough we are doing better with the number of death per million which remains the most important metrics here

what I'm try to show is people are using cases or test per head of population, incorrectly. Italy infection started in one place with one case. Italy was hit much harder in a small part of the north. Ireland had a larger number of people returning from outside Ireland with cases and so the infection will grow faster in different places. look at any exponential growth starting with 1 case v 20-30 cases and the growth will be much faster.
the growth is much more complicated and for many reasons. county like Norway might have less cases as people don't fly to Italy to do winter sports where the UK and Ireland would have a lot more people traveling to do that
it's never as simple as x = y

Mic 1972

Strazdas wrote: »

That was his point. Reduce the numbers down to manageable proportions but trying to get it down to 0 would be a total waste of time - it would be doable, but at the cost of your society no longer even existing at any meaningful level.

Agree, but Ireland isn't ready to loosen the restrictions, we haven't even implemented a real lock down

tobefrank321

is_that_so wrote: »

Philip Nolan says continued restrictions are not a long-term strategy he favours, 0.7 is manageable.

He also said when you lift restrictions the R0 goes up which makes sense. More people working with each other, more people on public transport and the like. Its only at 0.7 because of restrictions.

0.5 would mean new cases half every two weeks. If today we have 400 cases (excluding backlog) in two weeks new cases will be 200. In a month it will be 100 new cases a day. In two months it will be 25 new cases a day. And in 3 months we'd be close to zero new cases a day. At this point they lifted restrictions in Wuhan. It might be better to aim for that than lifting and imposing restrictions for 18 months.

spookwoman

Rushed job on gov.ie again

Gender Number
Female 6778
Male 5336
Unknown 111
Total 12425
should be 12225 and age rage is a mess as well.

ShineOn7

Mic 1972 wrote: »

China is open now, they managed

Stop. Using. China. As. A. Fcuking. Example.


They lied.

All their stats are false.

Jim_Hodge

ek motor wrote: »

17000 new cases in France. They must be testing a LOT.

Less than a third of the test per capita we are doing. Something is skewed with today's new cases.

Spencer Brown

tobefrank321 wrote: »

He also said when you lift restrictions the R0 goes up which makes sense. More people working with each other, more people on public transport and the like. Its only at 0.7 because of restrictions.

0.5 would mean new cases half every two weeks. If today we have 400 cases (excluding backlog) in two weeks new cases will be 200. In a month it will be 100 new cases a day. In two months it will be 25 new cases a day. And in 3 months we'd be close to zero new cases a day. At this point they lifted restrictions in Wuhan. It might be better to aim for that than lifting and imposing restrictions for 18 months.

Presumably following your plan we'll also need to close our borders and shut ourselves off from the world til a vaccine comes along?

Kermit.de.frog

Mic 1972 wrote: »

We can reduce the number of total cases going around infecting everybody and then slowly reopening activities while maintaining social distancing and other measures. China is open now, they managed

bettyoleary

Ace2007 wrote: »

Given the nature of nursing homes, how would they successfully beat it?

I think if a case was confirmed they would need to test all staff and residents daily and remove anyone who tested positive immediately. Maybe they could have covid isolation homes where they could have residents and staff who would just be there and test everyday. In the UK they have a home where the staff live in and don't go out into community and they have no cases of covid.

Gynoid

The policy makers who will make the decisions about restrictions will also have to look to their legacies.
In 2070 and 2120 when history recalls the pandemic that started in December 2019 it will precisely record the response of nations and their leaders and advisers.

History might record that following the mutiny of the very vocal cash and fun-strapped brigade on boards the politicians of the day reopened the building sites, factories and many shops on May 5th. One month later the virus had wreaked such havoc within the community that hospitals were overrun and the death rate was twice or thrice the normal daily rate, and so the citizens cried out for mercy and the country limped back into a proper lockdown though the virus had already infiltrated all defenses.

For me personally I would prefer if history recorded that Ireland, her leaders and her citizens, decided to exercise an abundance of caution in the face of a virulent disease about which the world knew little, maintained restrictions for a longer period of time and watched and waited to see what happened in countries that came out of lockdown earlier. As a result, though the virus was a harsh foe, many more people survived than might have otherwise and the people were glad when they could walk the roads freely once more.

That would be my decree if I was Queen of Ireland.

fullstop

GeorgeBailey wrote: »

The general running order on boards for the numbers briefing:

-What time is the briefing today?
-It should be the same time everyday
-They have more important things to do

[numbers announced]
-x number of cases
-What time is the briefing today?
-x number of cases
-x number of cases
-x number of cases
-Curve is flattening
-No sign of a flattening of the curve
-Do you even understand what flattening of the curve means
-x number of cases
-RIP to all those who died
-We're looking good guys
-Looking good? People have died. How is that looking good
-RIP to all those who died
-This is a shambles
-I actually think the goverment are doing a great job
-Glad I'm not in the States
-Glad/annoyed Sinn Fein aren't in government
-What time is the briefing?

You forgot;
- ffs
- surge?

daheff

So riddle me this...how come we have so many new cases each day still??we've been doing social distancing and wfh for the last 5 weeks or so.

While the daily % increase is not crazy high....the daily numbers are still rising.

Anybody care to explain?

Also anybody know how many of the new cases are in nursing homes vs rest of society?

polesheep

is_that_so wrote: »

Philip Nolan says continued restrictions are not a long-term strategy he favours, 0.7 is manageable.

You are calmer than the Dalai Lama. Your concise posts have been superb at calling out nonsense. Are you a mod in disguise?

Loafing Oaf

Spencer Brown wrote: »

Presumably following your plan we'll also need to close our borders and shut ourselves off from the world til a vaccine comes along?

If the promised '15-minute test' were to come out it would not be that difficult to stop it coming in again, on a wide scale anyway...

joe_99

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Tests per million


Italy = 19,490
Ireland = 18,358


they are absolutely comparable

We tested the same and have the same cases. But we are nowhere near their death rate. Shows that we are testing more in community for mild cases. They are testing more in hospitals.

bettyoleary

crossman47 wrote: »

That may be possible now but remember at the start we feared the hospitals would be overrun

The hospitals would be over run if all the infected sick patients who needed advanced care from nursing homes were in hospital. And, they should be . They deserve a chance too. They are not all seriously ill with underlying conditions. They have a right at a chance the same as any of us.

polesheep

crossman47 wrote: »

That may be possible now but remember at the start we feared the hospitals would be overrun

It's much too early to apportion blame, and it may never actually be appropriate to do so, but failing to lockdown the nursing homes should at least be a lesson learned for the next time.

Mic 1972

Coyote wrote: »

what I'm try to show is people are using cases or test per head of population, incorrectly. Italy infection started in one place with one case. Italy was hit much harder in a small part of the north. Ireland had a larger number of people returning from outside Ireland with cases and so the infection will grow faster in different places. look at any exponential growth starting with 1 case v 20-30 cases and the growth will be much faster.
the growth is much more complicated and for many reasons. county like Norway might have less cases as people don't fly to Italy to do winter sports where the UK and Ireland would have a lot more people traveling to do that
it's never as simple as x = y

How do you know if Italy started with 1 case?
At the time when Italy had the outbreak nobody was doing testing in Europe. Every country had a bunch of contained cases (Italy had 3), then Italy started to count dozens of new cases. Nobody knows how many had been there all along
Anyway, I'm not interested in how we got to this point. I'm interested in where we are now. At the moment we are just 1 spot behind Italy in terms of total cases per million and the figure is a good comparison because we are similar to Italy with the number of tests per million. it's a like of like comparison

joe_99

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I'm only reporting numbers, they are available to everyone on worldometer
some people like to sugarcoat, i dont

You like to select numbers out of context that paint the worst picture possible

Jim_Hodge

Mic 1972 wrote: »

How do you know if Italy started with 1 case?
At the time when Italy had the outbreak nobody was doing testing in Europe. Every country had a bunch of contained cases (Italy had 3), then Italy started to count dozens of new cases. Nobody knows how many had been there all along
Anyway, I'm not interested in how we got to this point. I'm interested in where we are now. At the moment we are just 1 spot behind Italy in terms of total cases per million and the figure is a good comparison because we are similar to Italy with the number of tests per million. it's a like of like comparison

It's not like for like. We are doing more community testing by far. Look it up.

Your comparisons are seriously flawed.

Loafing Oaf

polesheep wrote: »

It's much too early to apportion blame, and it may never actually be appropriate to do so, but failing to lockdown the nursing homes should at least be a lesson learned for the next time.

But staff still have to go in and if the virus is widespread in the community some will inevitably be positive but asymptomatic and infect patients. Maybe there are ways of organising the homes to minimise the amount of damage one such case can do but I don't see how you can eliminate them entirely until more advanced tests are developed.

Mic 1972

joe_99 wrote: »

We tested the same and have the same cases. But we are nowhere near their death rate. Shows that we are testing more in community for mild cases. They are testing more in hospitals.

the death rate is not related to the number of tests
also, Italy is testing in the community too. They tested almost 1.2 million people so far, they are not all in hospital

iamwhoiam

bettyoleary wrote: »

The hospitals would be over run if all the infected sick patients who needed advanced care from nursing homes were in hospital. And, they should be . They deserve a chance too. They are not all seriously ill with underlying conditions. They have a right at a chance the same as any of us.

Many people in care homes have signed a form that they do not wish heroic intervention . Some were transferred and some were not , that has always been the way long before Covid reared his head
The staff in care homes are trained to look after and care for their patients and it is not always appropriate or in the patients interest to transfer them to a strange and frightening medical facility
My mother died in care home just before this virus arrived , she was definitely better off in her comfortable bed with the carers and nurses who knew her and eased her path .

polesheep

bettyoleary wrote: »

The hospitals would be over run if all the infected sick patients who needed advanced care from nursing homes were in hospital. And, they should be . They deserve a chance too. They are not all seriously ill with underlying conditions. They have a right at a chance the same as any of us.

They are getting that chance. The nursing home near me had seven cases. Five went to hospital. I am delighted to say that all seven recovered.

weisses

GeorgeBailey wrote: »

The general running order on boards for the numbers briefing:

-What time is the briefing today?
-It should be the same time everyday
-They have more important things to do

[numbers announced]
-x number of cases
-What time is the briefing today?
-x number of cases
-x number of cases
-x number of cases
-Curve is flattening
-No sign of a flattening of the curve
-Do you even understand what flattening of the curve means
-x number of cases
-RIP to all those who died
-We're looking good guys
-Looking good? People have died. How is that looking good
-RIP to all those who died
-This is a shambles
-I actually think the goverment are doing a great job
-Glad I'm not in the States
-Glad/annoyed Sinn Fein aren't in government
-What time is the briefing?

Plus there is a smart arse almost every day summing it up

Mic 1972

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

It's not like for like. We are doing more community testing by far. Look it up.

Your comparisons are seriously flawed.

can you share the source to this?
Italy tested almost 1.2 million people, do you think they have 1.2 million people in hospital at the moment?

polesheep

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

But staff still have to go in and if the virus is widespread in the community some will inevitably be positive but asymptomatic and infect patients. Maybe there are ways of organising the homes to minimise the amount of damage one such case can do but I don't see how you can eliminate them entirely until more advanced tests are developed.

Simply providing PPE would have saved many lives.

Jim_Hodge

Mic 1972 wrote: »

the death rate is not related to the number of tests
also, Italy is testing in the community too. They tested almost 1.2 million people so far, they are not all in hospital

FFS! Almost 1.1 million of them were negative. You're determined to compared apples and oranges.

ninebeanrows

We are doing really well. Testing has really improved and we are in control of this now.

Terrible loss and tragedy will continue but we have reached peak pandemic and will see great improvements over the next weeks. Death toll due to lag may unfortunately continue to rise due to lag effect, but I think by 5 May we will be certainly be seeing cases decrease day to day and our death rate decreases...

Lets keep up the good work and also keep sane.

And pray for the dead and sick.

joe_99

Mic 1972 wrote: »

the death rate is not related to the number of tests
also, Italy is testing in the community too. They tested almost 1.2 million people so far, they are not all in hospital

You used a tests per million of population figure. We are also testing in hospitals but at a lower rate than Italy so comparisons are skewed.

Hence stark difference in deaths per million

ninebeanrows

On 5 May most shops will reopen with strict distancing, coffee shops and restaurants that can will too.

There'll be no school this year and no mass work...but we will get to a sense of normality by mid summer.