Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

Bobtheman

So what will happen on May 5th ??

Kermit.de.frog

Bobtheman wrote: »

So what will happen on May 5th ??

Judgement Day.

Bobtheman

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

On 5 May most shops will reopen with strict distancing, coffee shops and restaurants that can will too.

There'll be no school this year and no mass work...but we will get to a sense of normality by mid summer.

Is this just off the top of your head or what are you basing this on ?

Vivienne23

The game changer would be a test yourself at home kit like a pregnancy test , like literally swab if you have it goes red if you don’t it goes green ,

If all stays the course looks like we will be lifting restrictions in May week after week , i for one will not be going to a pub but I would chance a restaurant with social distancing implemented , looking forward to it !

woohoo!!!

crossman47 wrote: »

That may be possible now but remember at the start we feared the hospitals would be overrun

That was my big fear and I posted about here. Delighted to be proved wrong but using the Merkel precautionary principle, need to keep the good measures up and improving on where there are faults.

An Ciarraioch

Mic 1972 wrote: »

can you share the source to this?
Italy tested almost 1.2 million people, do you think they have 1.2 million people in hospital at the moment?

Their death rate per million is 3.5 times ours, even though the case per million stats are virtually identical.

Mic 1972

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

FFS! Almost 1.1 million of them were negative. You're determined to compared apples and oranges.

I'm comparing apples with apples, you dont understand stats

thegreengoblin

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

On 5 May most shops will reopen with strict distancing, coffee shops and restaurants that can will too.

There'll be no school this year and no mass work...but we will get to a sense of normality by mid summer.

What do you base that assessment on?

Mic 1972

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Their death rate per million is 3.5 times ours, even though the case per million stats are virtually identical.

yes that's correct, we are doing much better in terms of deaths
Where we are similar is with the number of infected people per million

Bobtheman

Vivienne23 wrote: »

The game changer would be a test yourself at home kit like a pregnancy test , like literally swab if you have it goes red if you don’t it goes green ,

If all stays the course looks like we will be lifting restrictions in May week after week , i for one will not be going to a pub but I would chance a restaurant with social distancing implemented , looking forward to it !

I don't share your confidence

bettyoleary

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Many people in care homes have signed a form that they do not wish heroic intervention . Some were transferred and some were not , that has always been the way long before Covid reared his head
The staff in care homes are trained to look after and care for their patients and it is not always appropriate or in the patients interest to transfer them to a strange and frightening medical facility
My mother died in care home just before this virus arrived , she was definitely better off in her comfortable bed with the carers and nurses who knew her and eased her path .

I totally agree with that but each case is individual and I don't believe that these people are getting a fair chance. There are some people in homes that go undiagnosed, as a result they are not given the chance. Testing has been nil. Trump is 70's with underlying conditions were would he be if he was in a nursing home??

Mic 1972

joe_99 wrote: »

You used a tests per million of population figure. We are also testing in hospitals but at a lower rate than Italy so comparisons are skewed.

Hence stark difference in deaths per million

deaths per million = (deaths / total population)*1,000,000
not related to the number of tests

Coyote

Mic 1972 wrote: »

How do you know if Italy started with 1 case?
At the time when Italy had the outbreak nobody was doing testing in Europe. Every country had a bunch of contained cases (Italy had 3), then Italy started to count dozens of new cases. Nobody knows how many had been there all along
Anyway, I'm not interested in how we got to this point. I'm interested in where we are now. At the moment we are just 1 spot behind Italy in terms of total cases per million and the figure is a good comparison because we are similar to Italy with the number of tests per million. it's a like of like comparison

Hi Mic 1972
I would love to believe that your number are right, but I would have to believe that Irish people are 4-5 times less lightly to die from Covid19 than people from Italy.
are Irish people 5 time less lightly to die than Belgium people?
the death rate has been worked out at 1-1.5% from country's with high testing like SK.
if Italy has 22,170 deaths it should have around 1.5-2.2million cases per 1 death per 100 people
I would love to think that Irish people just stronger or have a 5x better health system that no one else has but the number do not show that.
are we 5 times better at not die from this than the Belgium people?

Regards

Coyote

woohoo!!!

Vivienne23 wrote: »

The game changer would be a test yourself at home kit like a pregnancy test , like literally swab if you have it goes red if you don’t it goes green ,

If all stays the course looks like we will be lifting restrictions in May week after week , i for one will not be going to a pub but I would chance a restaurant with social distancing implemented , looking forward to it !

The longer the lock down the more likely a combo of both may be needed

Ace2007

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

We are doing really well. Testing has really improved and we are in control of this now.

Terrible loss and tragedy will continue but we have reached peak pandemic and will see great improvements over the next weeks. Death toll due to lag may unfortunately continue to rise due to lag effect, but I think by 5 May we will be certainly be seeing cases decrease day to day and our death rate decreases...

Lets keep up the good work and also keep sane.

And pray for the dead and sick.

I thought we hit the peak last week?

bettyoleary

bettyoleary wrote: »

I totally agree with that but each case is individual and I don't believe that these people are getting a fair chance. There are some people in homes that go undiagnosed, as a result they are not given the chance. Testing has been nil. Trump is 70's with underlying conditions were would he be if he was in a nursing home??

There are hundreds of elderly people at home in their own homes being cared for by family or have a carer. There are many living at home alone or with hus, wife. They are cocooning because they want to live. They have paid their taxes been valuable members of society are a massive support to there families and have years of wisdom. Just bcos they are in a nursing home why are they left. They found 7 elderly people dead in NY over weekend in a care home flung into a mortuary. Its outrageous.

Kermit.de.frog

The lunatic in Brazil has fired his health minister

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/16/bolsonaro-brazil-president-luiz-mandetta-health-minister

foxyladyxx

bettyoleary wrote: »

I totally agree with that but each case is individual and I don't believe that these people are getting a fair chance. There are some people in homes that go undiagnosed, as a result they are not given the chance. Testing has been nil. Trump is 70's with underlying conditions were would he be if he was in a nursing home??

At the press conference today . .one of the ''experts'' said that many of the deceased covid 19 patients in care homes had displayed no symptoms.

Jim_Hodge

Mic 1972 wrote: »

yes that's correct, we are doing much better in terms of deaths
Where we are similar is with the number of infected people per million

You just don't get it do you? Their case count is many multiples of the positive tests. This applies to most countries, but the testing in Italy for many weeks was not as comprehensive as ours by any means.

You're determined to continue with the spurious comparison for some strange reason, so off you go, but it's not correct.

Ace2007

Mic 1972 wrote: »

death rate = deaths / total population
not related to the number of tests

Are you being serious?

Mortality rates - deaths (tested positive)/Total population tested

MrMusician18

daheff wrote: »

So riddle me this...how come we have so many new cases each day still??we've been doing social distancing and wfh for the last 5 weeks or so.

While the daily % increase is not crazy high....the daily numbers are still rising.

Anybody care to explain?

Also anybody know how many of the new cases are in nursing homes vs rest of society?

Of the 750 odd confirmed cases, those which have a known source accounted for 49% which would include
health workers, nursing homes and family/household transmission. 51% therefore were community transmission.

As you rightly point out, after 5 weeks in lockdown, each and every single one of those people caught it while they were meant to be observing good hygiene rules to prevent the spread of disease. But apparently we cannot blame "the people", it's the HSE, government or some other bogey man that's always at fault. Society was never good at acknowledging it's own failures.

I predicted an acceleration in spread as a result of non-observation around Easter and the good weather and look what's happened.

joe_99

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I'm comparing apples with apples, you dont understand stats

Person A has 10 friends - 10 years later all are alive

Person B has ten friends - 10 years later all are dead

What's wrong with Person B?

He happens to be 90. Person A is 20. Apple's with apples? Or other factors in play?

MrMusician18

Ace2007 wrote: »

Are you being serious?

Mortality rates - deaths (tested positive)/Total population tested

That's wrong too. It's positive tested deaths/ total positive tests.

JP Liz V1

Ace2007 wrote: »

I thought we hit the peak last week?

I don't we have yet sadly

Mic 1972

Coyote wrote: »

Hi Mic 1972
I would love to believe that your number are right, but I would have to believe that Irish people are 4-5 times less lightly to die from Covid19 than people from Italy.
are Irish people 5 time less lightly to die than Belgium people?
the death rate has been worked out at 1-1.5% from country's with high testing like SK.
if Italy has 22,170 deaths it should have around 1.5-2.2million cases per 1 death per 100 people
I would love to think that Irish people just stronger or have a 5x better health system that no one else has but the number do not show that.
are we 5 times better at not die from this than the Belgium people?

Regards

Coyote

OK, I'm only comparing number of infected people here, I'm not looking at death rate.
Italy and Ireland are almost at the same level in terms of infected people per million, that's where the comparison stands
Regarding the death rate you are correct, we are doing much better in Ireland compared to Italy or other countries, like Spain. That's another analysis all together

JP Liz V1

Is foreign workers still coming over here for farms?

niallo27

Anyone else just want to get the ****en thing at this stage and chance being immune from it. I'm in my late 30s, no conditions I know of and fairly fit.

Refractions

Coyote wrote: »

Hi Mic 1972
I would love to believe that your number are right, but I would have to believe that Irish people are 4-5 times less lightly to die from Covid19 than people from Italy.
are Irish people 5 time less lightly to die than Belgium people?
the death rate has been worked out at 1-1.5% from country's with high testing like SK.
if Italy has 22,170 deaths it should have around 1.5-2.2million cases per 1 death per 100 people
I would love to think that Irish people just stronger or have a 5x better health system that no one else has but the number do not show that.
are we 5 times better at not die from this than the Belgium people?

Regards

Coyote

Please stop signing your posts 'Regards, Coyote', it's annoying.

Ace2007

niallo27 wrote: »

Anyone else just want to get the ****en thing at this stage and chance being immune from it. I'm in my late 30s, no conditions I know of and fairly fit.

Was actually thinking of this earlier on, regarding nursing homes, given the large number of healthcare workers have gotten the virus - if these were redeployed to nursing homes - would this reduce the spread? This on the basis that a confirmed cased previously can't pick up/spread the virus?

frillyleaf

Rvsmmnps wrote: »

Its a virus,pretty much a once in a lifetime occurrence.There is almost no plan just alot of effort and hope.Our efforts might have very little impact irregardless.

Any info on the bse injections effectiveness on the virus,or potential effectivness?

I don’t think this will be a once in a lifetime occurrence if we don’t drastically change how we farm and treat animals...

boardise

joe_99 wrote: »

You like to select numbers out of context that paint the worst picture possible

Can't be . Mic doesn't spin. He told us so himself.

bettyoleary

foxyladyxx wrote: »

At the press conference today . .one of the ''experts'' said that many of the deceased covid 19 patients in care homes had displayed no symptoms.

I don't think he said no symptoms, he said they didn't display typical symptoms, ie cough etc. But, they were still unwell in some way. They wernt carrying on their daily routine and just dropped dead without the nurses noticing I'm sure. They were unwell and needed to see a DR and a test could have been done if others in the home were showing typical symptoms and they were as homes have several cases now,

niallo27

Ace2007 wrote: »

Was actually thinking of this earlier on, regarding nursing homes, given the large number of healthcare workers have gotten the virus - if these were redeployed to nursing homes - would this reduce the spread? This on the basis that a confirmed cased previously can't pick up/spread the virus?

I'm sure there would be volunteers but from a legal point of view it would be a nightmare if someone died, no amount of waivers would cover it.

Kermit.de.frog

ek motor wrote: »

17000 new cases in France. They must be testing a LOT.

Not the smoothest looking ascent

Mic 1972

Ace2007 wrote: »

Are you being serious?

Mortality rates - deaths (tested positive)/Total population tested

I was referring to the Death/1 Mil pop reported on wordometer
that's not related to the number of tests

Looney1

Did George Lee just say"dropping like flies, "

boardise

Ace2007 wrote: »

I thought we hit the peak last week?

We're prob'ly talkin' twin peaks here.

woohoo!!!

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Is foreign workers still coming over here for farms?

Yes, like every year they're coming to the big horticultural set ups. I dread to think what their accommodation is like.

joe_99

Mic 1972 wrote: »

That's another analysis all together

Which many on this thread have stated is due to increased testing in Italy of sicker people than Ireland.

castletownman

Remember when Sinn Fein won all those seats in the General Election and people were saying the country was f*cked?

That was gas.

Balf

Looney1 wrote: »

Did George Lee just say"dropping like flies, "

I wasn't watching, but it sounds like George.

joe_99

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I was referring to the Death/1 Mil pop reported on wordometer
that's not related to the number of tests

It is if you are not testing people before or after they die

Mic 1972

joe_99 wrote: »

Which many on this thread have stated is due to increased testing in Italy of sicker people than Ireland.

Fair enough, once again I'm not looking at death rate here
I'm looking only at the number of infected people per million, this is where the comparison with Italy stands

Funsterdelux

niallo27 wrote: »

Anyone else just want to get the ****en thing at this stage and chance being immune from it. I'm in my late 30s, no conditions I know of and fairly fit.

I wouldnt, you just dont know how your body's immune system will react. Im mid 30s and I wouldnt fancy it.

Dr. Bre

castletownman wrote: »

Remember when Sinn Fein won all those seats in the General Election and people were saying the country was f*cked?

That was gas.

Remember when the homeless crisis was headline news

coastwatch

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Of the 750 odd confirmed cases, those which have a known source accounted for 49% which would include
health workers, nursing homes and family/household transmission. 51% therefore were community transmission.

As you rightly point out, after 5 weeks in lockdown, each and every single one of those people caught it while they were meant to be observing good hygiene rules to prevent the spread of disease. But apparently we cannot blame "the people", it's the HSE, government or some other bogey man that's always at fault. Society was never good at acknowledging it's own failures.

I predicted an acceleration in spread as a result of non-observation around Easter and the good weather and look what's happened.

Philip Nolan confirmed that today that "growth in the community is close to zero”.
The 51% community spread is the percentage for all cases (12425) up to midnight Tuesday 14th April.
That important detail makes the rest of your post complete nonsense.

Vivienne23

Bobtheman wrote: »

I don't share your confidence

What confidence we are not going to be locked down forever it’s not possible , unless each individual decide to lock themselves down ,the government have started us off it’s down to us now to keep ourselves virus free

Mic 1972

joe_99 wrote: »

It is if you are not testing people before or after they die

how many people do you think are dying for respiratory complications after developing pneumonia that aren't tested for covid?

DevilsHaircut

Philip Nolan's/NPHET's modelling data from today's briefing.

https://www.gov.ie/en/news/7e0924-latest-updates-on-covid-19-coronavirus/#view-the-latest-modelling-data

Kermit.de.frog

Some good news from New York, lowest death toll since April 2nd. They are still paying a dreadful price though.

New hospitalisations continue to fall allbeit from a very high base.