Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

jackboy

whisky_galore wrote: »

Wow, not answering the question. Yes or fcuking no?

I don’t think my personal employment ambitions are relevant to the thread.

If there is a problem getting Irish people to do these jobs then there are alternatives. The government are paying workers that lost their jobs, because of the virus, 350 Euro. They could offer people on basic dole to keep the dole on top of the basic wage they would receive for these jobs.

Woodsie1

whisky_galore wrote: »

3 euro a punnet or a tenner a punnet?

Let's see which of these gets bought by the public.

Ah so youre in favour of immigrants slaving for fcuk all just so you can keep your cheap strawberries,nice guy:rolleyes:

whisky_galore

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

What are you saying?

That it's not an honorable profession?

A bit too low brow for the Irish, is it?

Simple economics.

Woodsie1

easypazz wrote: »

If Irish people got €30 an hour they would pick fruit.

Would you pay €10 for a punnet of strawberrys?

Whos saying anything about 30 quid an hour...cop yourself on

whisky_galore

Woodsie1 wrote: »

Ah so youre in favour of immigrants slaving for fcuk all just so you can keep your cheap strawberries,nice guy:rolleyes:

What is your solution?

Plus it's not only me, and you, eating this fruit. It's every Emer and Mary piling on Keelings swearing they'll never buy from them again.
Who will they buy from, huh?

Woodsie1

whisky_galore wrote: »

What is your solution?

Pay a proper wage and price the product accordingly.
Consumers cut their cloth to match what they can afford.
Strawberries are far from a necessity.

Wombatman

Tony on the Late Late tomorrow night. Minor celeb now. Bet he gets the Desperate D4 Housewives in a flutter.

Funsterdelux

whisky_galore wrote: »

Would you pick fruit?

My kids would pick all day but wouldnt earn a penny, theyd eat all the profits.

Harry Palmr

Greens Berry Farm in Wexford had 15 pickers paid for coming from the east but couldn't get them in so I'd like to know what the difference is with the other place

Purple Mountain

Will the Bulgarians be made to self isolate for 2 weeks in a hotel near the airport?

easypazz

[QUOTEy=Woodsie1;113180391]Whos saying anything about 30 quid an hour...cop yourself on[/QUOTE]

Its €60k a year.

After tax 45k?

A family of 5 on benefits is on about €35k

So why would they bother?

Vivienne23

Lads , strawberries are dear enough as it is ! No need to bring the Irish pickers in

There’s a reason the Bulgarians come and they are probably afraid of catching it here , they will quarantine for 14 days , I really don’t see the issue ,

We would be better off to support our local producers , they are getting an awful slating

I was talking to a food producer and they have foreign workers on their site with a few local lads , they said the locals were more of a risk than the foreign lads they only left the site once a week for shopping where as the locals were coming and going every day ,

Let the pickers work away in peace and enjoy the strawberries !

eagle eye

Again our government fail miserably.

How are we supposed to get clear of this thing if they are letting people in like this?
I'm sure Keeling's knew they were coming a month ago at the very latest. They should have been brought over at Keeling's expense 2 weeks ago and quarantined.
We have potentially now another strain of the virus in this country and possibly spread to Irish people already.

Kermit.de.frog

Wombatman wrote: »

Tony on the Late Late tomorrow night. Minor celeb now. Bet gets the Desperate D4 Housewives in a flutter.

Did yeh see yer man on the news this evening doing the drawings of notable Irish people?

Presenting a drawing of him he described Tony as "the face of coronavirus"

Not sure how Tony feels about that.

whisky_galore

Woodsie1 wrote: »

Pay a proper wage and price the product accordingly.
Consumers cut their cloth to match what they can afford.
Strawberries are far from a necessity.

Alright so, a tenner a punnet or let them rot in the fields, grand so.

Woodsie1

easypazz wrote: »

Its €60k a year.

After tax 45k?

A family of 5 on benefits is on about €35k

So why would they bother?

Because the vast majority of unemployed people arent scroungers with no willingness to work for a living.

woohoo!!!

easypazz wrote: »

If Irish people got €30 an hour they would pick fruit.

Would you pay €10 for a punnet of strawberrys?

They wouldn't. That's not to say such firms underpay. They do

Woodsie1

whisky_galore wrote: »

Alright so, a tenner a punnet or let them rot in the fields, grand so.

Yep...Plenty of farmers have trouble selling milk and lamb because of this no reason why a few strawberries cant rot too.

Rob A. Bank

Various ways of surviving the social isolation and boredom.

Russian art isolation group...Life imitating artworks.

Best virtual gatherings worldwide... A Global Guide to Virtual Events from concerts to lectures to fitness classes.

Strava Art...GPS art as you exercise.

woohoo!!!

Vivienne23 wrote: »

Lads , strawberries are dear enough as it is ! No need to bring the Irish pickers in

There’s a reason the Bulgarians come and they are probably afraid of catching it here , they will quarantine for 14 days , I really don’t see the issue ,

We would be better off to support our local producers , they are getting an awful slating

I was talking to a food producer and they have foreign workers on their site with a few local lads , they said the locals were more of a risk than the foreign lads they only left the site once a week for shopping where as the locals were coming and going every day ,

Let the pickers work away in peace and enjoy the strawberries !

Exactly

stephenjmcd

eagle eye wrote: »

Again our government fail miserably.

How are we supposed to get clear of this thing if they are letting people in like this?
I'm sure Keeling's knew they were coming a month ago at the very latest. They should have been brought over at Keeling's expense 2 weeks ago and quarantined.
We have potentially now another strain of the virus in this country and possibly spread to Irish people already.

Well if you read the statement on it, they have been brought over at Keelings expense and now do have to undertake the 14 day limited movements for entrants into the country.

What's you point ? It's food production and needs to be done, like it or not they're a skilled worker that's required in the food chain. Read up on this earlier, to trian in someone to do this sort of work can take up to a year.

Vivienne23

eagle eye wrote: »

Again our government fail miserably.

How are we supposed to get clear of this thing if they are letting people in like this?
I'm sure Keeling's knew they were coming a month ago at the very latest. They should have been brought over at Keeling's expense 2 weeks ago and quarantined.
We have potentially now another strain of the virus in this country and possibly spread to Irish people already.

How do you know they aren’t going to be quarantined now for 2 weeks at keelings expense ? And that they aren’t needed for another 2 weeks ?

Do you work there

whisky_galore

jackboy wrote: »

I don’t think my personal employment ambitions are relevant to the thread.

If there is a problem getting Irish people to do these jobs then there are alternatives. The government are paying workers that lost their jobs, because of the virus, 350 Euro. They could offer people on basic dole to keep the dole on top of the basic wage they would receive for these jobs.

We shall say 'no' then...

whisky_galore

Woodsie1 wrote: »

Yep...Plenty of farmers have trouble selling milk and lamb because of this no reason why a few strawberries cant rot too.

Enjoy your turnips and cream.

Kermit.de.frog

Trump live shortly

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_2mSMGVD0s

jackboy

whisky_galore wrote: »

We shall say 'no' then...

Sure, if it makes you happy.

castletownman

Maestro85 wrote: »

Any predictions of what the easing of restrictions will mean for tourism and various sites like Blarney, Foto Wildlife etc...? Or put another way... how screwed is tourism in Ireland?

I work in both the tourism industry and journalism based on attending live sport. Both tie into each other in that their busiest seasons coincide. Starts to pick up around St.Patrick's Day on both counts.

I'd say most tourist spots will be decimated and won't pick up at all this year, particularly the smaller ones like the one I work in. Then again, September-October usually sees a lot of Americans come over here on cheap flights, but that "tradition" could be a thing of the past now too.

froog

wakka12

normanoffside wrote: »

Anyone watching Prime time there?

The conclusion was that reported infections are vastly under reported.
80% of cases are Asymptomatic and most of the others are unreported.
The actual mortality rate is somewhere between 0.1%(best case scenario) and 0,5%(worst case scenario)

Not possible that the mortality rate is 0.1%, apart from the obvious fact that a disase of similar mortality rate to flu simply would of course not cause this level of distress to the most soophisitcated healthcares systems on the planet, it would mean based on the death rates in new york that 16.1 million people in the state have caught the infection, which is 83% of the population of the state. There were no known coronavirus deaths in New York 5-6 weeks ago, so its not possible

Woodsie1

whisky_galore wrote: »

Enjoy your turnips and cream.

Whats your point here?
You seem to be replying to anyone you dont agree with with silly little jibes and answering questions with questions.
Is there something wrong that you cant accept a different opinion.

You dont win anything on the internet being a smartarse.:rolleyes:

Funsterdelux

I think the Bulgarian fruit pickers are the ones that should be worried

owlbethere

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Trump live shortly

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_2mSMGVD0s

I can't do another night of this

JP Liz V1

Anyone watching Irish Pickers on Blaze, quite enjoyable

Is strawberry farms an "essential service", I do like them in smoothies and eton mess but could do without

ShineOn7

From the Redit user again who has an abundance of stats and info. I'm going to take a deeper dive into their post history tomorrow.

They've been on Reddit 6 years with over 24,000 upvotes (the equivalent of Boards thanks system). All words below the line are theirs. There's some cautiously optimistic stuff in here. I've highlighted in bold and red the stuff that stood out most to me;


______________________________________________


New Cases: 629 (Germany: 95)
Total Cases: 13271
New Death: 43
Total Deaths: 486 (One death de-notified)
Male: 22
Female: 21
Median Age: 84
Underlying conditions: 27

Of the death

• Deaths: 486
• Hospitalised + died in hospital: 298 (61%)
• Died in ICU: 44
• Underlying conditions: 403
• Male: 283
• Female: 203
• Median age: 82
• Mean age: 69
• Age Range: 23-105

Of 290 in ICU

• Remain in ICU: 156
• Discharged: 90
• Died: 44
• Underlying conditions: 238
• Median Age: 60

As of Tuesday 14th

• Cases: 12425
• In Hospital: 2026
• In ICU: 284
• Deaths: 480
• Clusters: 425 - Account for 2451 cases
• Median age infected: 48
• Healthcare workers: 25%

Clusters

• Clusters In Community: 254 - 4 additional from yesterday occurred in nursing homes
• Residential Homes: 163
• 302 deaths in community residential settings
• Nursing Homes: 253 deaths in nursing homes

Modelling with Philip Nolan

• Models are useful and powerful, but the output depends on the assumptions. We have many assumptions - proportion of people who are asymptomatic, and data used to calibrate the model. German results are being fed back in to help recalculate. They are good for making decisions, but shouldn't read too much into them Because we are constantly re-calibrating based off of the data, the numbers will change every time the model is presented.

• Most results back from Germany, and backdated into graphs

• Cases were growing at 33% a day (cumulatively) at the beginning. Now, while its not flat, growing very slowly.

• Hospitalised cases growing very slowly.

• ICU rate of growth is also very slow

• Number of people dying increases, but the rate of growth is decreasing. They are watching this number very closely.

• As modellers, need to look at all of the data we have, not just confirmed cases. Overall seeing slow growth Percentage growth in total number of cases, against previous day, averaged over 5 days, is about 5% growth rate. Number of new cases per day is noisier.

• Since 3rd April, growth rate of new cases with German cases backdated, growth rate is very close to 0.

• Number of people reported to be in ICU has been stable since 3rd April. One would imagine that is beginning to decline at this point.

• Final indication we have of the growth rate of the virus is the reproduction number. We have 4 ways to calculate this. All 4 showed that R0 = 0.7-1. Needs to be below 1 to show that we are in control of the virus.

• We can compare the R0 against a number of different European countries - model knows when we imposed different social distancing measures.

• In early stages of epidemic, R0 = 2-4. Immediately after early interventions (28 March), R0 = 1.5-3. High confidence now that R0 < 1

• We need to be very careful that if we relax measures, that we don't go back to R0 = 1.5-3

• Unmitigated epidemic would have had 120,000 infections by this week (Using R0=3.7)

• If we had reduced to R0=2.4, we would have still seen a huge number of cases - approximately 70,000 cases at the peak. Would have approx had 7800 new cases today. Approx 17000 deaths

• At the reduced rate, low R0, peak would be 5000 cases, and would see virus pushed out to August

• Where are we now? We are hopeful/ confident that our R0 is below one. Model predicts we are in peak now, and will reduce. In reality, things are slightly different. Prudent to take a look at the actual data, rather than rely on the data. We need experience to tell us that measures are working, not just the model telling us that. We need more data.

• What might happen if measures are eased around May 5th?

• Most optimistic - R0 = 0.8, cases reduce near the end of the month

• Relax measures for 3 weeks, and reimpose if needed - THIS IS JUST MODEL, NOT WHAT HE'S SUGGESTING

• If more relaxed measures are containing the disease (R0=1.1) we will see a small increase in numbers
• R=1.2, still managing. Reintroducing measures will suppress disease
• R=1.6 (every second person infects 2 people) would see a significant peak at this point. Reimpose numbers to gain control
• R0=>2, we get a very sudden and unmanageable spike on disease. Clearly wouldn't leave relaxed measure in place for 3 weeks and allow that to happen
• Whatever happens after May 5th needs to be managed very carefully

• Symptoms in elderly may not be the same symptoms in the young - cough or fever may not be present, but lack of appetite is

normanoffside

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Anyone watching Irish Pickers on Blaze, quite enjoyable

Is strawberry farms an "essential service", I do like them in smoothies and eton mess but could do without

Food production is an essential service.

Strawberries are more of a food than crisps for example.

Atlantic Dawn

The Don is on, I see he got the oul gruaig refreshed so to speak.

mikeoc85

wakka12 wrote: »

Not possible that the mortality rate is 0.1%, apart from the obvious fact that a disase of similar mortality rate to flu simply would of course not cause this level of distress to the most soophisitcated healthcares systems on the planet, it would mean based on the death rates in new york that 16.1 million people in the state have caught the infection, which is 83% of the population of the state. There were no known coronavirus deaths in New York 5-6 weeks ago, so its not possible

People have immunity to the flu...nobody’s immune system has seen this before.

Princess cruises and Iceland are both the best examples of how this is actually spreading in the community.

Woodsie1

normanoffside wrote: »

Food production is an essential service.

Strawberries are more of a food than crisps for example.

Strawberries are far from essential,especially if you have to fly in 190 Bulgarians to pick them.

JP Liz V1

Wimbledon is cancelled

wakka12

mikeoc85 wrote: »

People have immunity to the flu...nobody’s immune system has seen this before.

Princess cruises and Iceland are both the best examples of how this is actually spreading in the community.

Icelandic mass testing has proven a relatively low prevalence of the disease within the population(of that country) so I dont know what your point is there.

A ship is anything but representative of how a disease spreads within a population

V8 Interceptor

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Why are you calling him "simple"?

Seems a very clever and capable man to me.

LMAO

I hope Simple Simon has 189 rooms lined up to quarantine the Bulgarian fruit pickers who came through Dublin Airport today?

Meanwwhile a man was arrested in Roscommon this morn for travelling 2km from his home :pac::pac::pac:

stephenjmcd

ShineOn7 wrote: »

From the Redit user again who has an abundance of stats and info. I'm going to take a deeper dive into their post history tomorrow.

They've been on Reddit 6 years with over 24,000 upvotes (the equivalent of Boards thanks system). All words below the line are theirs. There's some cautiously optimistic stuff in here. I've highlighted in bold and red the stuff that stood out most to me;


______________________________________________


New Cases: 629 (Germany: 95)
Total Cases: 13271
New Death: 43
Total Deaths: 486 (One death de-notified)
Male: 22
Female: 21
Median Age: 84
Underlying conditions: 27

Of the death

• Deaths: 486
• Hospitalised + died in hospital: 298 (61%)
• Died in ICU: 44
• Underlying conditions: 403
• Male: 283
• Female: 203
• Median age: 82
• Mean age: 69
• Age Range: 23-105

Of 290 in ICU

• Remain in ICU: 156
• Discharged: 90
• Died: 44
• Underlying conditions: 238
• Median Age: 60

As of Tuesday 14th

• Cases: 12425
• In Hospital: 2026
• In ICU: 284
• Deaths: 480
• Clusters: 425 - Account for 2451 cases
• Median age infected: 48
• Healthcare workers: 25%

Clusters

• Clusters In Community: 254 - 4 additional from yesterday occurred in nursing homes
• Residential Homes: 163
• 302 deaths in community residential settings
• Nursing Homes: 253 deaths in nursing homes

Modelling with Philip Nolan

• Models are useful and powerful, but the output depends on the assumptions. We have many assumptions - proportion of people who are asymptomatic, and data used to calibrate the model. German results are being fed back in to help recalculate. They are good for making decisions, but shouldn't read too much into them Because we are constantly re-calibrating based off of the data, the numbers will change every time the model is presented.

• Most results back from Germany, and backdated into graphs

• Cases were growing at 33% a day (cumulatively) at the beginning. Now, while its not flat, growing very slowly.

• Hospitalised cases growing very slowly.

• ICU rate of growth is also very slow

• Number of people dying increases, but the rate of growth is decreasing. They are watching this number very closely.

• As modellers, need to look at all of the data we have, not just confirmed cases. Overall seeing slow growth Percentage growth in total number of cases, against previous day, averaged over 5 days, is about 5% growth rate. Number of new cases per day is noisier.

• Since 3rd April, growth rate of new cases with German cases backdated, growth rate is very close to 0.

• Number of people reported to be in ICU has been stable since 3rd April. One would imagine that is beginning to decline at this point.

• Final indication we have of the growth rate of the virus is the reproduction number. We have 4 ways to calculate this. All 4 showed that R0 = 0.7-1. Needs to be below 1 to show that we are in control of the virus.

• We can compare the R0 against a number of different European countries - model knows when we imposed different social distancing measures.

• In early stages of epidemic, R0 = 2-4. Immediately after early interventions (28 March), R0 = 1.5-3. High confidence now that R0 < 1

• We need to be very careful that if we relax measures, that we don't go back to R0 = 1.5-3

• Unmitigated epidemic would have had 120,000 infections by this week (Using R0=3.7)

• If we had reduced to R0=2.4, we would have still seen a huge number of cases - approximately 70,000 cases at the peak. Would have approx had 7800 new cases today. Approx 17000 deaths

• At the reduced rate, low R0, peak would be 5000 cases, and would see virus pushed out to August

• Where are we now? We are hopeful/ confident that our R0 is below one. Model predicts we are in peak now, and will reduce. In reality, things are slightly different. Prudent to take a look at the actual data, rather than rely on the data. We need experience to tell us that measures are working, not just the model telling us that. We need more data.

• What might happen if measures are eased around May 5th?

• Most optimistic - R0 = 0.8, cases reduce near the end of the month

• Relax measures for 3 weeks, and reimpose if needed - THIS IS JUST MODEL, NOT WHAT HE'S SUGGESTING

• If more relaxed measures are containing the disease (R0=1.1) we will see a small increase in numbers
• R=1.2, still managing. Reintroducing measures will suppress disease
• R=1.6 (every second person infects 2 people) would see a significant peak at this point. Reimpose numbers to gain control
• R0=>2, we get a very sudden and unmanageable spike on disease. Clearly wouldn't leave relaxed measure in place for 3 weeks and allow that to happen
• Whatever happens after May 5th needs to be managed very carefully

• Symptoms in elderly may not be the same symptoms in the young - cough or fever may not be present, but lack of appetite is

A good summary of what was said in the press conference and what's in the department of health press release each evening.

froog

lower mortality rate than almost any other country?

hmm i'm gonna need a fact check on that one

Tenzor07

V8 Interceptor wrote: »

Meanwwhile a man was arrested in Roscommon this morn for travelling 2km from his home :pac::pac::pac:

We'll send him to you to deal with so, seems like he was just misunderstood; https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/man-arrested-after-assaulting-and-spitting-at-garda-in-roscommon-994486.html

Kermit.de.frog

podgeandrodge

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Or indeed lack of mask wearing.

How have we reached near zero community growth with the supposed (and I am not disagreeing or agreeing) risks of supermarket and lack of masks? Those 2 elements having been regularly discussed as being the main outstanding risks in the community right now.

Anyone?

WhiteMemento9

We need scarfe lady to get on stage after Trump and just start yelling he is mad. I don't agree with this opening, stay at home.

V8 Interceptor

Richard Hillman wrote: »

Coveney always had his ambitions on getting a UN gig. Varadkar wants an EU gig. They will put all of our wellbeing at risk to get themselves there.

The day Slovenia closed their border to Italy, the likes of Pascal Donohue and Harris were banging on about hurting Italian peoples feelings and free movement is at the core of the EU. And Slovenia, considering their proximity have done a tremendous job.

There is a clique there that are absolutely brainwashed by the EU.

Indeed.

Maestro85

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Anyone?

Luck of the Irish....

omerin

The donald has just signed the death warrant for thousands of Americans and the world.