Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

Kermit.de.frog

Blanco100 wrote: »

Everything is beautiful with Trump.

Has he said the virus is beautiful yet?

He said it was "very smart"

(no really, he did)

stephenjmcd

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I think you'll find Stephen is of the laissez faire brigade when it comes to borders. He still thinks there's no-one coming in and those who do come in don't represent a danger of new infections.

When we are in lockdown 2 years from now he'll stll be beating that drum. Him and Simon Harris.

Oh look its you again. Where did I say nobody coming in through the borders, look at dublin airports twitter account its extremely quiet.

As long as they do the 14 days of restricted movement then the risk is minimal, same as anyone else who enters the country.

Enjoy your lockdown forever brigade

Roger_007

signostic wrote: »

The White House goat was sheared on Tuesday!

I was thinking that maybe his old hair developed symptoms and was self-isolating?

Blanco100

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

He said it was "very smart"

(no really, he did)

Thats beautiful.

Tremendous shape you could say

Ha Long Bay

V8 Interceptor wrote: »

Incorrect. I did no such thing.

You did see here.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112985781&postcount=7959


That tells us nothing. How are they going to individually isolate 189 people for a fortnight?

I don't know it was you who said they are putting them up in 189 individual apartments so I presumed incorrectly you knew or had a link to it.

ChikiChiki

froog wrote: »

Some states can open as early as tommorow. Sweet jesus

I'd be very surprised if a single Governer takes up that offer as soon as tomorrow.

If it backfires on them they will be pointed out as the most dumb worst Governer ever by the manchild when the inevitable happens in 3-4 weeks.

V8 Interceptor

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Not long ago you were rattling on about Ethiopians coming into the country which was proven completely untrue. Bit of a trend

Someone else has just said that too. You're mixing me up with someone else. I recall the Ethiopian flights but I said nothing about a conspiracy.

Supply chain? You mean fruit. And how about all the Irish people told to stop work and stay at home, many industries at least as important as the above?

signostic

Maestro85 wrote: »

Not to be callous about it as I know there are lives on the line but let the world watch as this backfires so other countries can plan accordingly after seeing the fallout of it.

Trump will then blame the docs...

Minnie Snuggles

Blanco100 wrote: »

Everything is beautiful with Trump.

Has he said the virus is beautiful yet?

Dear God no, this is a China virus, however, if it originated in America it would be the biggest, bestest, most tremendous, beautiful virus.

V8 Interceptor

john4321 wrote: »

I don't know it was you who said they are putting them up in 189 individual apartments so I presumed incorrectly you knew or had a link to it.

I said it tongue in cheek because that's what you people seem to be implying.

How do you think they're going to separately isolate 189 people for a fortnight?

MD1990

Trump really reminds me of a South Park parody.

Bit of Cartman about him.

lbj666

ShineOn7 wrote: »

From the Redit user again who has an abundance of stats and info. I'm going to take a deeper dive into their post history tomorrow.

They've been on Reddit 6 years with over 24,000 upvotes (the equivalent of Boards thanks system). All words below the line are theirs. There's some cautiously optimistic stuff in here. I've highlighted in bold and red the stuff that stood out most to me;


______________________________________________


New Cases: 629 (Germany: 95)
Total Cases: 13271
New Death: 43
Total Deaths: 486 (One death de-notified)
Male: 22
Female: 21
Median Age: 84
Underlying conditions: 27

Of the death

• Deaths: 486
• Hospitalised + died in hospital: 298 (61%)
• Died in ICU: 44
• Underlying conditions: 403
• Male: 283
• Female: 203
• Median age: 82
• Mean age: 69
• Age Range: 23-105

Of 290 in ICU

• Remain in ICU: 156
• Discharged: 90
• Died: 44
• Underlying conditions: 238
• Median Age: 60

As of Tuesday 14th

• Cases: 12425
• In Hospital: 2026
• In ICU: 284
• Deaths: 480
• Clusters: 425 - Account for 2451 cases
• Median age infected: 48
• Healthcare workers: 25%

Clusters

• Clusters In Community: 254 - 4 additional from yesterday occurred in nursing homes
• Residential Homes: 163
• 302 deaths in community residential settings
• Nursing Homes: 253 deaths in nursing homes

Modelling with Philip Nolan

• Models are useful and powerful, but the output depends on the assumptions. We have many assumptions - proportion of people who are asymptomatic, and data used to calibrate the model. German results are being fed back in to help recalculate. They are good for making decisions, but shouldn't read too much into them Because we are constantly re-calibrating based off of the data, the numbers will change every time the model is presented.

• Most results back from Germany, and backdated into graphs

• Cases were growing at 33% a day (cumulatively) at the beginning. Now, while its not flat, growing very slowly.

• Hospitalised cases growing very slowly.

• ICU rate of growth is also very slow

• Number of people dying increases, but the rate of growth is decreasing. They are watching this number very closely.

• As modellers, need to look at all of the data we have, not just confirmed cases. Overall seeing slow growth Percentage growth in total number of cases, against previous day, averaged over 5 days, is about 5% growth rate. Number of new cases per day is noisier.

• Since 3rd April, growth rate of new cases with German cases backdated, growth rate is very close to 0.

• Number of people reported to be in ICU has been stable since 3rd April. One would imagine that is beginning to decline at this point.

• Final indication we have of the growth rate of the virus is the reproduction number. We have 4 ways to calculate this. All 4 showed that R0 = 0.7-1. Needs to be below 1 to show that we are in control of the virus.

• We can compare the R0 against a number of different European countries - model knows when we imposed different social distancing measures.

• In early stages of epidemic, R0 = 2-4. Immediately after early interventions (28 March), R0 = 1.5-3. High confidence now that R0 < 1

• We need to be very careful that if we relax measures, that we don't go back to R0 = 1.5-3

• Unmitigated epidemic would have had 120,000 infections by this week (Using R0=3.7)

• If we had reduced to R0=2.4, we would have still seen a huge number of cases - approximately 70,000 cases at the peak. Would have approx had 7800 new cases today. Approx 17000 deaths

• At the reduced rate, low R0, peak would be 5000 cases, and would see virus pushed out to August

• Where are we now? We are hopeful/ confident that our R0 is below one. Model predicts we are in peak now, and will reduce. In reality, things are slightly different. Prudent to take a look at the actual data, rather than rely on the data. We need experience to tell us that measures are working, not just the model telling us that. We need more data.

• What might happen if measures are eased around May 5th?

• Most optimistic - R0 = 0.8, cases reduce near the end of the month

• Relax measures for 3 weeks, and reimpose if needed - THIS IS JUST MODEL, NOT WHAT HE'S SUGGESTING

• If more relaxed measures are containing the disease (R0=1.1) we will see a small increase in numbers
• R=1.2, still managing. Reintroducing measures will suppress disease
• R=1.6 (every second person infects 2 people) would see a significant peak at this point. Reimpose numbers to gain control
• R0=>2, we get a very sudden and unmanageable spike on disease. Clearly wouldn't leave relaxed measure in place for 3 weeks and allow that to happen
• Whatever happens after May 5th needs to be managed very carefully

• Symptoms in elderly may not be the same symptoms in the young - cough or fever may not be present, but lack of appetite is

This is the sort of stuff people need to read, not pander on about trump

stephenjmcd

V8 Interceptor wrote: »

Someone else has just said that too. You're mixing me up with someone else. I recall the Ethiopian flights but I said nothing about a conspiracy.

Supply chain? You mean fruit. And how about all the Irish people told to stop work and stay at home, many industries at least as important as the above?

Must be a similar username, I'll edit my post accordingly so.

Well I'd think food trumps most industries really.

Anyway theres a whole thread on this topic.

Tenzor07

froog wrote: »

Some states can open as early as tommorow. Sweet jesus

When you see what state govenors are dealing with, it's a wonder the National Guard aren't out on the streets...

Watch for all the MAGA hats and "Trump 2020"

Kermit.de.frog

When you get past Trump's vomit it's actually a very tough criteria to open up in stages.

Any rebound at each stage takes the state back to the start.

RobertKK

https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1250895027838033922?s=20

Hopefully...

Ha Long Bay

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Must be a similar username, I'll edit my post accordingly so.

Well I'd think food trumps most industries really.

Anyway theres a whole thread on this topic.

It was here

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112985781&postcount=7959


Originally Posted by V8 Interceptor View Post
Can someone explain why three flights are landing from Ethiopia at early morning while everyone is locked in their house?

amadangomor

lbj666 wrote: »

This is the sort of stuff people need to read, not pander on about trump

Can do both.

V8 Interceptor

john4321 wrote: »

You did see here.

I asked a question about the flights, I ventured no conspiracy! If you quoted my next post you'd see I thanked the poster who explained the refuelling!

Kermit.de.frog

RobertKK wrote: »

https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1250895027838033922?s=20

Hopefully...

Buy the rumour, sell the fact.

tobefrank321

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Oh look its you again. Where did I say nobody coming in through the borders, look at dublin airports twitter account its extremely quiet.

As long as they do the 14 days of restricted movement then the risk is minimal, same as anyone else who enters the country.

Enjoy your lockdown forever brigade

And the Travellers in Birr? They do 14 days of isolation?

Of course they didn't!

Incredible naivity to believe people will isolate.

Once they leave the port or airport they are in the community.

Like I said two years from now you and Simon Harris will be banging this long discredited mantra about allowing people in with zero checks from hotspots.

No point getting community infections to zero if you bring in new ones. Unless of course you want a permament lockdown?

froog

lbj666 wrote: »

This is the sort of stuff people need to read, not pander on about trump

Looks like a summary of todays press conference to me. He could have just posted a link.

Maestro85

I think I am going to watch Monty Python and The Holy Grail tonight after the news Trump put out....

lillycakes2

Trump speaking at Coronavirus press conference :

"Our Bridges need help "


???

V8 Interceptor

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Must be a similar username, I'll edit my post accordingly so.
.

No you're grand. You're right, I did indeed ask about those flights but it was explained to me immediately regarding the refuelling.

WhiteMemento9

:P

https://ibb.co/jZKdLhw

Mental Mickey

lillycakes2 wrote: »

Trump speaking at Coronavirus press conference :

"Our Bridges need help "


???

I was lost on that too

r93kaey5p2izun

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

He said it was "very smart"

(no really, he did)

This germ is so brilliant.

Funsterdelux

lillycakes2 wrote: »

Trump speaking at Coronavirus press conference :

"Our Bridges need help "


???

Really?

stephenjmcd

V8 Interceptor wrote: »

No you're grand. You're right, I did indeed ask about those flights but it was explained to me immediately regarding the refuelling.

No worries, edited it anyway, you only asked the question, didnt push the conspiracy theory. My bad.

fritzelly

If we listened to Trump then Sligo, Roscommon, Leitrim and Longford should all be going back to work - not a bad idea, they've barely any cases and all next door to each other

V8 Interceptor

stephenjmcd wrote: »

No worries, edited it anyway, you only asked the question, didnt push the conspiracy theory. My bad.

I wasn't far off it though!!!

I'm off to stock up on strawberries. I hear 'twill be a fortnight before the next batch is picked :pac::pac::pac:

signostic

Scarf woman back on again!

ShineOn7

omerin wrote: »

The donald has just signed the death warrant for thousands of Americans and the world.

** in the voice of a Dad who gets a call from a Headmaster to come pick up his child **



" ... what has he done now? :rolleyes:"

RobertKK

US states are like countries in Europe, what the US is doing is no different to what is happening in Europe, where some are easing restrictions and others aren't.

Kermit.de.frog

This reminds me of Boris Johnson

Tenzor07

Trump has stopped answering more than a couple of questions from the media now....

khalessi

fritzelly wrote: »

If we listened to Trump then Sligo, Roscommon, Leitrim and Longford should all be going back to work - not a bad idea, they've barely any cases and all next door to each other

Interesting but what about those people who live outside those counties and travel in for work or those people in those 3 counties that travel to other counties for work. how would that be managed?

Mental Mickey

That was a bloody joke

fritzelly

khalessi wrote: »

Interesting but what about those people who live outside those counties and travel in for work or those people in those 3 counties that travel to other counties for work. how would that be managed?

Well no travel in or out and graduated reopening

WhiteMemento9

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Trump has stopped answering more than a couple of questions from the media now....

It was a plucked audience anyuway. They were all fed questions that he was happy to answer. He has had such hostile rooms over the last few briefings. The are obviously on rotation and he has done a really good job of engineering a room he wanted for this breifing. They gave him such an easy ride on questions in probably the biggest and most controversial news in weeks.

tobefrank321

What Stephen doesn't understand and its also beyond Simon Harris and Leo Varadkar's intelligence is that you can get community infections to zero and lift restrictions.

If even one person brings it in from the UK it will spread rapidly because guess what, there's no restrictions. Within weeks we are back up to hundreds of cases.

And we have to reimpose restrictions on the entire population again. All because of a single imported case.

Voluntary isolation is a joke. We've seen that in the last few days.

ShineOn7

stephenjmcd wrote: »

A good summary of what was said in the press conference and what's in the department of health press release each evening.

Oh cool, that's where they're getting the numbers. I don't always see the press conferences

The Reddit user does excellent, digestible summaries all the same. Fair play

Blanco100

fritzelly wrote: »

If we listened to Trump then Sligo, Roscommon, Leitrim and Longford should all be going back to work - not a bad idea, they've barely any cases and all next door to each other

The problem is many of them work in Dublin

Personally think no matter what he said people would jump on it. its a pastime isn't it.

Big disclaimer being power is in hands of governors as to whether they should open or not.

Tenzor07

WhiteMemento9 wrote: »

It was a plucked audience anyuway. They were all fed questions that he was happy to answer. He has had such hostile rooms over the last few briefings. The are obviously on rotation and he has done a really good job of engineering a room he wanted for this breifing. They gave him such an easy ride on questions in probably the biggest and most controversial news in weeks.

Trump's just proving just how he thinks he's the King of the United States, and not a politician who's answerable to the people....

threeball

tobefrank321 wrote: »

What Stephen doesn't understand and its also beyond Simon Harris and Leo Varadkar's intelligence is that you can get community infections to zero and lift restrictions.

If even one person brings it in from the UK it will spread rapidly because guess what, there's no restrictions. Within weeks we are back up to hundreds of cases.

And we have to reimpose restrictions on the entire population again. All because of a single imported case.

Voluntary isolation is a joke. We've seen that in the last few days.

What do you propose in that case. Its not going away now that its here. Face up to that fact and you'll save yourself alot of stress.

stephenjmcd

tobefrank321 wrote: »

What Stephen doesn't understand and its also beyond Simon Harris and Leo Varadkar's intelligence is that you can get community infections to zero and lift restrictions.

If even one person brings it in from the UK it will spread rapidly because guess what, there's no restrictions. Within weeks we are back up to hundreds of cases.

And we have to reimpose restrictions on the entire population again. All because of a single imported case.

Voluntary isolation is a joke. We've seen that in the last few days.

Having a go at me again ? I understand perfectly so thanks for your concern if you read back through my posts I've not once said lift all restrictions in one go read back through them you'll see any of my ideas around lifting them are phased over the space of about 3 months or more. Also reported you for another personal dig for no reason, nice trend going there.

cameramonkey

Speaking of government ministers I was wondering where the Murphy fellow was and if he had raised the head above the parapet. Lo and behold I spotted him today walking down Herbert Park not a meter from the fellow that was accompanying him. I dont know his personal situation maybe he is a flat mate or a boyfriend.

Jinglejangle69

cameramonkey wrote: »

Speaking of government ministers I was wonder where the Murphy fellow was and if he had raised the head above the parapet. Lo and behold I spotted him today walking down Herbert Park not a meter from the fellow that was accompanying him. I dont know his personal situation maybe he is a flat mate or a boyfriend.

Yeah maybe.

ShineOn7

RobertKK wrote: »

US states are like countries in Europe, what the US is doing is no different to what is happening in Europe, where some are easing restrictions and others aren't.

I wish more people got this and the size and population of America a lot better

The lack of common sense and just working out averages etc by some people regarding Covid is really something