Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

Professor Moriarty

Hobgoblin11 wrote: »

gilead drug trial looks like we found the cure!!!

Well, some initial results are extremely encouraging...

Dr. Bre

is_that_so wrote: »

Ok, not quite, but very promising early data! Remdsivir was a big hope all along.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/

We won’t popthe champagne corks just yet

ek motor

Hobgoblin11 wrote: »

gilead drug trial looks like we found the cure!!!

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/

Remdesivir is the drug in question. Looks promising

pc7

ek motor wrote: »

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/

Remdesivir is the drug in question. Looks promising

That was being touted a month ago, hopefully it is advancing and working

caveat emptor

Conor mcgregor's favourite physicist. Sums it up really. We could have been much better prepared.

https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1249486844410187776?s=20

jv2000

ek motor wrote: »

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/

Remdesivir is the drug in question. Looks promising

Whilst the drug does look promising it is still only a treatment, it will only be used on patients that have serious symptoms and are hospitalised. It will not reduce the risk of catching COVID-19 unfortunately but could go a long way towards combating the death rate and hopefully at decreasing hospital burden by meaning patients need to be in ICU less and for shorter periods of time. Any step in this direction is a good step forward.

fits

is_that_so wrote: »

We now understand that it is all about doing things quickly. Right or correct comes afterwards and we can apply all the hindsight and knowledge we've accrued to that.

Absolutely agree with this. I’m actually pretty positive about the government response. However there are things we would all change if we could go back.

joe40

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Unless I misread, that says nothing at all about the UK government admitting that Coronavirus deaths are greatly under reported. Perhaps you could quote where the article does?

As far as I know and open to correction, but only hospital deaths are included in official figures. So acceptance the police are dealing with large number of covid death at home is acknowledgement that official figures are underreported.

is_that_so

pc7 wrote: »

That was being touted a month ago, hopefully it is advancing and working

They are expecting much wider data by the end of the month. There are 152 similar trials going on worldwide with 2,400 patients.

eagle eye

We are still not doing enough. We have to stop people entering the country without being quarantined. We have to stop people who are not adhering to the rules of the lockdown.

Are we not capable of manufacturing ppe gear and the other necessary medical supplies instead of sending flights all over the place?

joe40

ek motor wrote: »

China are probably still lying about their figures, even with this change of their death toll. Doubtful we'll ever hear the true figures from them.

WHO have lost credibilty because of their attitude towards China and the statements they've come out with since the initial outbreak was being reported in China.

None of the western countries, ourselves included have stood up to China. We knew about the human rights abuses, prison camps, atrocious working conditions but we needed China for economic reasons. They were always above official criticism.
Trump only cared about Trade in his battles with China, not the behavior of the government.
So how was a relatively small part of the UN expected to criticize China and the same time ensure access to the country. They would have been left high and dry by the international community.

is_that_so

eagle eye wrote: »

We are still not doing enough. We have to stop people entering the country without being quarantined. We have to stop people who are not adhering to the rules of the lockdown.

Are we not capable of manufacturing ppe gear and the other necessary medical supplies instead of sending flights all over the place?

WHO's own research on travel bans suggest there is little evidence it does much. We're below 1 in terms of transmission and virtually zero growth in the community, what else do you expect us to do? That discussion on manufacturing is ongoing.

jay0109

is_that_so wrote: »

WHO's own research on travel bans suggest there is little evidence it does much. We're below 1 in terms of transmission and virtually zero growth in the community, what else do you expect us to do? That discussion on manufacturing is ongoing.

How can anyone say a travel ban does not work when it's exactly that which has brought about the drop in transmission. Internal and external restrictions on travel do work...it's as obvious as night following day.

But of course some people let their ideological views trump everything else even at this time

eagle eye

is_that_so wrote:

WHO's own research on travel bans suggest there is little evidence it does much. We're below 1 in terms of transmission and virtually zero growth in the community, what else do you expect us to do? That discussion on manufacturing is ongoing.

How can you still have faith in an organisation which has been so wrong from the the outset with this virus and ignore the results from a country like Taiwan who imposed major travel restrictions?

is_that_so

jay0109 wrote: »

How can anyone say a travel ban does not work when it's exactly that which has brought about the drop in transmission. Internal and external restrictions on travel do work...it's as obvious as night following day.

But of course some people let their ideological views trump everything else even at this time

What you're talking about is restrictions, not a ban. The WHO and others says it's these other countermeasures that have the impact. Here's some info on it.

https://www.cato.org/blog/research-provides-no-basis-pandemic-travel-bans

is_that_so

eagle eye wrote: »

How can you still have faith in an organisation which has been so wrong from the the outset with this virus and ignore the results from a country like Taiwan who imposed major travel restrictions?

I'm talking about their research, not their current "actions". Taiwan has used a wide range of measures, which are likely to be far more effective.

caveat emptor

jay0109 wrote: »

How can anyone say a travel ban does not work when it's exactly that which has brought about the drop in transmission. Internal and external restrictions on travel do work...it's as obvious as night following day.

But of course some people let their ideological views trump everything else even at this time

Yeah transportation the number one controllable variable.

https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1249669107202523136?s=20

Pablo Escobar

is_that_so wrote: »

Ok, not quite, but very promising early data! Remdesivir was a big hope all along.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/

A lot of the work on this is going on in Cork as far as I'm aware.

is_that_so

Our blame target group for the week is Bulgarian fruit pickers! Thought it would be sweaty joggers, tank-sized buggies or just anyone outside their door.

eagle eye

is_that_so wrote:

I'm talking about their research, not their current "actions". Taiwan has used a wide range of measures, which are likely to be far more effective.

And we should be following the Taiwan model.

froog

to be fair it is bizarre advice from the WHO - they seem to make no distinction between banning passenger travel alone and a total ban that includes essential services and people etc.

https://www.who.int/news-room/articles-detail/updated-who-recommendations-for-international-traffic-in-relation-to-covid-19-outbreak

Recommendations for international traffic

WHO continues to advise against the application of travel or trade restrictions to countries experiencing COVID-19 outbreaks.

In general, evidence shows that restricting the movement of people and goods during public health emergencies is ineffective in most situations and may divert resources from other interventions. Furthermore, restrictions may interrupt needed aid and technical support, may disrupt businesses, and may have negative social and economic effects on the affected countries. However, in certain circumstances, measures that restrict the movement of people may prove temporarily useful, such as in settings with few international connections and limited response capacities.

Travel measures that significantly interfere with international traffic may only be justified at the beginning of an outbreak, as they may allow countries to gain time, even if only a few days, to rapidly implement effective preparedness measures. Such restrictions must be based on a careful risk assessment, be proportionate to the public health risk, be short in duration, and be reconsidered regularly as the situation evolves.

Travel bans to affected areas or denial of entry to passengers coming from affected areas are usually not effective in preventing the importation of cases but may have a significant economic and social impact. Since WHO declaration of a public health emergency of international concern in relation to COVID-19, and as of 27 February, 38 countries have reported to WHO additional health measures that significantly interfere with international traffic in relation to travel to and from China or other countries, ranging from denial of entry of passengers, visa restrictions or quarantine for returning travellers. Several countries that denied entry of travellers or who have suspended the flights to and from China or other affected countries, are now reporting cases of COVID-19.

is_that_so

eagle eye wrote: »

And we should be following the Taiwan model.

On travel nope. They do aggressive contact tracing, they isolate, they have an app. All of these are known to have a great effect, the former is not.

eagle eye

is_that_so wrote:

On travel nope. They do aggressive contact tracing, they isolate, they have an app. All of these are known to have a great effect, the former is not.

We should be following their model in its entirety. They have shown success, you or I or the Irish government or WHO have not..

podgeandrodge

podgeandrodge wrote: »

How have we reached near zero community growth with the supposed (and I am not disagreeing or agreeing) risks of supermarket and lack of masks? Those 2 elements having been regularly discussed as being the main outstanding risks in the community right now?

What are people's views on this?

BanditLuke

is_that_so wrote: »

Our blame target group for the week is Bulgarian fruit pickers! Thought it would be sweaty joggers, tank-sized buggies or just anyone outside their door.

Except nobody is blaming the fruit pickers are they. It's Keelings people have the gripe with and rightfully so but of course you already know this.

jay0109

froog wrote: »

to be fair it is bizarre advice from the WHO - they seem to make no distinction between banning passenger travel alone and a total ban that includes essential services and people etc.

It's entirely predictable that a Globalist organisation will say nothing negative about international travel. All about a world with no borders and a pandemic isn't going to change their overriding ideology.

Any 'research' or advice they offer has to be viewed from that angle. How some people cannot see that tells you all you need to know about their world view

bodhrandude

This man is fecking brilliant and just the tonic we need in these turbulent time.

eagle eye

BanditLuke wrote:

Except nobody is blaming the fruit pickers are they. It's Keelings people have the gripe with and rightfully so but of course you already know this.

Correct and as a regular purchaser of their products I'm extremely unhappy. I won't be buying any of their products ever again.

caveat emptor

is_that_so wrote: »

Our blame target group for the week is Bulgarian fruit pickers! Thought it would be sweaty joggers, tank-sized buggies or just anyone outside their door.

Private hospitals and the 44k cost per bed. 4X uk.

3 weeks ago wrote this.....so obvious.
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112950526&postcount=8989

Originally Posted by Blaaz_ View Post
They are being used on a not-for-profit basis for the duration of the pandemic

Does that count for the suppliers too? i.e great if the hospital is charging cost price but bad if the same person who owns the hospital also owns the company supplying goods and services to the hospital and elastic bands cost 20 euro.

technically operated at cost price but would cost a lot more than a public bed.

https://twitter.com/paulmurphy_TD/status/1250839564991619073?s=20

moonlighting_1

Guys apparently we are not doing that well as regards total cases per million. Was kind of shocked to see us as no 5 on the list.

Mic 1972

billybonkers wrote: »

Ireland has contained and effectively suppressed coronavirus in the population at large

Ireland hasn't contained the spread yet.

With 700 new cases in one day we are far from that goal

jay0109

moonlighting_1 wrote: »

Guys apparently we are not doing that well as regards total cases per million. Was kind of shocked to see us as no 5 on the list.

But but but...George Lee was on the news last night gushing about how great we were doing! How the Govt had played a blinder and haven't put a foot wrong!

And yet we're just behind the Yanks on deaths per million

moonlighting_1

jay0109 wrote: »

But but but...George Lee was on the news last night gushing about how great we were doing! How the Govt had played a blinder and haven't put a foot wrong!

And yet we're just behind the Yanks on deaths per million

the numbers are quite shocking really

Alf Veedersane

podgeandrodge wrote: »

What are people's views on this?

I can only speak to my experience of supermarket shopping so it's not to say everyone will have the same experience. The Dunnes I shop in is quite large and they have cut it to a max of 50 in the last couple of weeks. They clean the baskets and trolleys fastidiously as far as I can see. People are instructed to use the sanitiser and gloves provided at the entrance. There are usually two there to manage the queue.

It's a large shop so there is little crossing of paths in there from what I have seen.

I would usually go to both Dunnes and Aldi but haven't only been to Aldi maybe 3 times in the last 6 weeks. There are no gloves or sanitiser provided in Aldi or at least I haven't seen either. It's a smaller shop and there are a few more people passing by in the aisles but nothing I think is all that problematic and people, for the most part, are conscious of keeping their distance. Not sure what numbers they are limiting to but I would say it's less than 50.

Logically it seems that there is a much lower risk in the larger shops where they are limiting the numbers (and policing that) and providing gloves and/or sanitiser.

BanditLuke

moonlighting_1 wrote: »

Guys apparently we are not doing that well as regards total cases per million. Was kind of shocked to see us as no 5 on the list.

Shows you how powerful spin can be. Talk of a relaxation of restrictions are completely insane. Support the HSE and stay at home.

tobefrank321

hmmm wrote: »

Great to see the Captain Hindsights in full flow. We'll be listening to them for the next 10 years.

I don't remember anyone on this thread mentioning nursing homes 2 months ago, now it's all "well it was obvious that the biggest risk was...."

None of us are paid hundreds of thousands or tens of millions in total in salaries to come up with plans for nursing homes.

Why should it be up to us?

Why didn't the HSE send a fact finding team to Italy 6 weeks ago? Why didn't the WHO issue clear instructions to the HSE on stricter protocols for nursing homes? Why didn't the government issue even the bare minimum of PPE?

But, there were plenty on here who said 6 weeks ago if we don't get ahead of covid 19 and do our best to slow its spread here and bring in strong protocols about visitors from hotspots, we'd be up sh*ts creek in the future.

Those people were proved 100% right. They were proved right over our government ministers who get paid 150k and did NOTHING to slow its spread. Ministers and a Taoiseach who admitted defeat before it even took off, saying it can't be stopped.

joe40

moonlighting_1 wrote: »

Guys apparently we are not doing that well as regards total cases per million. Was kind of shocked to see us as no 5 on the list.

The more important stat for me is death per population. We're doing much better than the UK in that regard, but their no. of cases are lower according to that video.

Richard Hillman

moonlighting_1 wrote: »

Guys apparently we are not doing that well as regards total cases per million. Was kind of shocked to see us as no 5 on the list.

It is remarkable how the media and government have hoodwinked people into thinking we're doing just fine.

Slovenia is right beside Italy, they shut down their border with them on March 10th and have 61 deaths and 1269 cases. They have a similar testing output to ourselves.

Ireland have 2688 Cases Per Million
Slovenia have 610 cases Per Million

So it must be testing right?
Ireland have tested 18,358 per million people
Slovenia have tested 18,344 per million people
Virtually the same

Ireland has 68 deaths per million
Slovenia has 29 deaths per million

Maybe its population density?
Ireland's population density is 70people per kilometer
Slovenia is 103 people per kilometer

And just to remind everyone, Slovenia have a border with Northern Italy. And tons of seasonal workers at the ski resorts.

We are at U.S level numbers, of which everyone in the Irish media are telling us have done a terrible job.

crossman47

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Why didn't the HSE send a fact finding team to Italy 6 weeks ago? Why didn't the WHO issue clear instructions to the HSE on stricter protocols for nursing homes? Why didn't the government issue even the bare minimum of PPE?

They were proved right over our government ministers who get paid 150k and did NOTHING to slow its spread. Ministers and a Taoiseach who admitted defeat before it even took off, saying it can't be stopped.

On the first point, I can guarantee if they had, you would have had people complaining about bringing the virus back by visiting a hotspot.

Your second point barely merits an answer. Have you any understanding of what uncontrolled exponential growth and where we would be now without control measures?

There have of course been mistakes as will happen in a highly pressurised situation but on the whole we're doing well.

smelly sock

Richard Hillman wrote: »

It is remarkable how the media and government have hoodwinked people into thinking we're doing just fine.

Slovenia is right beside Italy, they shut down their border with them on March 10th and have 61 deaths and 1269 cases. They have a similar testing output to ourselves.

Ireland have 2688 Cases Per Million
Slovenia have 610 cases Per Million

So it must be testing right?
Ireland have tested 18,358 per million people
Slovenia have tested 18,344 per million people
Virtually the same

Ireland has 68 deaths per million
Slovenia has 29 deaths per million

Maybe its population density?
Ireland's population density is 70people per kilometer
Slovenia is 103 people per kilometer

And just to remind everyone, Slovenia have a border with Northern Italy. And tons of seasonal workers at the ski resorts.

We are at U.S level numbers, of which everyone in the Irish media are telling us have done a terrible job.

Its Trump bashing by our media.

Hobgoblin11

Richard Hillman wrote: »

It is remarkable how the media and government have hoodwinked people into thinking we're doing just fine.

Slovenia is right beside Italy, they shut down their border with them on March 10th and have 61 deaths and 1269 cases. They have a similar testing output to ourselves.

Ireland have 2688 Cases Per Million
Slovenia have 610 cases Per Million

So it must be testing right?
Ireland have tested 18,358 per million people
Slovenia have tested 18,344 per million people
Virtually the same

Ireland has 68 deaths per million
Slovenia has 29 deaths per million

Maybe its population density?
Ireland's population density is 70people per kilometer
Slovenia is 103 people per kilometer

And just to remind everyone, Slovenia have a border with Northern Italy. And tons of seasonal workers at the ski resorts.

We are at U.S level numbers, of which everyone in the Irish media are telling us have done a terrible job.

we are sandwiched between the UK and the USA, expect our figures to be the median of these two or the mean even!

RebelButtMunch

eagle eye wrote: »

Correct and as a regular purchaser of their products I'm extremely unhappy. I won't be buying any of their products ever again.

And in an alternate universe tons of fruit lie rotting in the sun causing a scandal. Why didn't we fly in some fruit pickers and let them isolate for 2 weeks

crossman47

Norman Hunter has been beaten by the virus. RIP. Not many got by him in his prime.

tobefrank321

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Vietnam has reported only 269 cases so far.

The country, along with quite a few others, needs to be sanctioned for lying to the global community.

This won't end with consequences for China.

Have you the slightest evidence Vietnam are lying? Given that they followed best international practice.

Covid 19 isn't actually that difficult to get control of, provided you act early enough, which western governments obviously didn't. Vietnam and Taiwan had early warnings from China and closed their borders rapidly.

Meanwhile in the West we left our borders and routes open for almost a month to hotspots.

We still have easy access to hotspots like London. A Traveller can come over on the ferry, bring the family and travel anywhere in Ireland unhindered. Try telling them to self isolate and see how far you get.

smelly sock

crossman47 wrote: »

Norman Hunter has been beaten by the virus. RIP. Not many got by him in his prime.

I watched the Damned United only last night.

Well worth a watch to kill a few hours.

They dont make them like that anymore.

RIP.

Shelle1234.

Bobtheman wrote: »

When will schools open ?

Genuine question and not a dig. But even if they did open would you send your kids back. I have a 7 and 13 year old and while i would be 70% sure the 13 year old woulf manage with social distancing etc thr 7 year old hasnt a hope. Short of binding her hands i cant seem to get her to keep them away from her face. She acts before thinking and is a very tactile person. There is not a hope she would actively follow the rules (and not out of badness or us not drilling it in. Just habit that is proving very difficult to break). So i would worry about her, but then im also diabetic so am i just supposed to be considered disposable should i catch it because the kids needed to be back at school so society could get going again. It genuinely messes with my head trying to work around it. Im not saying schools shouldnt open if need be for certain services to return gradually but im definitely questioning if they should open as an educational entity or perhaps as a daycare for parents who need it (somewhat like the front line workers and schools in the uk). I know my views might not be popular and no i dont have answers as to how it should be done but im curious wbout where others stand as i definitely dont think i will be sending mine back until the goverment tell me they are reopening under medical advice rather than economical advice. Xx

caveat emptor

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

And in an alternate universe tons of fruit lie rotting in the sun causing a scandal. Why didn't we fly in some fruit pickers and let them isolate for 2 weeks

It shows that there aren't really any restrictions regarding international travel which during a pandemic is just stupid. I'm however very concerned with food supply. We get a lot of our fruit and veg from the continent. Spain depends on migrant workers from Africa to pick a lot of the fruit veg and that is not happening.
As this crisis drags on food will start becoming an issue or rather range of food.
I know we are in a strong position regarding food security but how much of that is underpinned by migrant workers? We kinda threw away our strong position of being an island during pandemic by not closing borders. We could do something stupid regarding food. I know we had fodder issues a few years back due to weather. Those risks haven't gone away. etc. How resilient is our supply chain in that area. I don't know.


As unpopular as it is. I think lesser of two evils. The government should have addressed this issue with a clear strategy. I know there are lots of people unemployed due to this crisis. There should have been physical distancing on the plane and the people should be quarantined for at least 2 weeks.

Hard to get them to go do back breaking work in fields that no Irish people have done for a generation if we are being realistic. Taking 350 sitting at home watching Netflix is clearly easier.

KindOfIrish

Richard Hillman wrote: »

It is remarkable how the media and government have hoodwinked people into thinking we're doing just fine.

Slovenia is right beside Italy, they shut down their border with them on March 10th and have 61 deaths and 1269 cases. They have a similar testing output to ourselves.

Ireland have 2688 Cases Per Million
Slovenia have 610 cases Per Million

So it must be testing right?
Ireland have tested 18,358 per million people
Slovenia have tested 18,344 per million people
Virtually the same

Ireland has 68 deaths per million
Slovenia has 29 deaths per million

Maybe its population density?
Ireland's population density is 70people per kilometer
Slovenia is 103 people per kilometer

And just to remind everyone, Slovenia have a border with Northern Italy. And tons of seasonal workers at the ski resorts.

We are at U.S level numbers, of which everyone in the Irish media are telling us have done a terrible job.

Possibly they don't have as many nursing homes as Ireland and their hospitals are run better in terms of hygiene etc.

tobefrank321

crossman47 wrote: »

On the first point, I can guarantee if they had, you would have had people complaining about bringing the virus back by visiting a hotspot.

Your second point barely merits an answer. Have you any understanding of what uncontrolled exponential growth and where we would be now without control measures?

There have of course been mistakes as will happen in a highly pressurised situation but on the whole we're doing well.

Seriously? Where do you get this stuff? Do you even believe what you are saying?

Re uncontrolled growth, if you were around here 6-7 weeks ago, you would have seen numerous people calling for parades to be cancelled, the madness of Cheltenham, schools to be closed, and travel to and from northern Italy immediately suspended. All of which the government either dithered on or did nothing at all. They actually wanted to allow the parades to go ahead to prove we were open for business and to help the tourist and hospitality trade. Insanity.


Mistakes? I would call them monumental c*ck ups, led by Simon Harris and Leo Varadkar. It didn't have to be this bad. It didn't have to be near this bad. Confirmed cases we are worse per capita than the US, and similar per capita in terms of deaths. Yet all we hear is we are doing well, they are doing terribly.

s1ippy

podgeandrodge wrote: »

What are people's views on this?

I can only speak to my own experience but I have exercised an ABUNDANCE of caution. I was absent from my teaching job the week before school was shut down because I have asthma. This turned out to be the correct decision days after the school closed, as a parent whose child socialises with children in my class put on her Instagram that she was awaiting test results. Turned out to be positive and a week and a half after the schools shut, so my SNAs and the parents of children in my class were dealing with their special needs children having brought coronavirus into their homes. I felt incredibly guilty that I had protected myself and not warned them, but how could I really have been sure? I would have sounded "hysterical".

Now my work as a carer is only with one client because one died and I changed my schedule weeks ago. I'm their only help and none of the leave the house. I do shopping for them, I've been doing click and collect which is very nerve-wracking having to go into the shop... but they've freed up slots for carers and the elderly, so I do their shopping with the bits I get for my parents and I have a delivery on Tuesday which should cover three weeks, keeping some in sealed containers in our fridge until the following week which saves me having to do it weekly. I also bought a tonne of my own PPE so I'm using that as we're not allowed to use the agency's stuff when cleaning people's houses or feeding them, only for intimate personal care. Crazy.

The reason it looks like community transmission is dropping off is because we are not testing in the community.

I said it last night and I'll say it again, nine of the ten houses on my road have this infection, a total of around 30 people. The two of us living here are the only ones who aren't sick. Only five of these have a confirmed case. This morning as I was watering the plants, I heard choking from the elderly woman next door, who then collapsed in her garden. Her son rang the ambulance. Note that the son that called for the ambulance was in the house, but he isn't a member of her household. She lives with the youngest son and the daughter who is an air hostess who is a confirmed case. The air hostess is not self isolating and regularly goes out, the younger son (around 19) is also not at home this morning for some unknown reason.

My brother is a contact tracer. He says the scope of who they regard as close contacts is staggeringly limited. Remember the week of our first case, the woman who went from Dublin to Northern Ireland? Nobody who was actually proximal to her on her trip would have been flagged or called, they're not going checking security footage and tracing to discover people's identities. They might have called the bus company but it's up to them then to take further action and they might not.

The brother says he's literally just following a simple script with the confirmed infected person if they're conscious, "were you chatting with anyone during the week? Do you think you might have been closer to them than 2m?" not feckin CSI like some people think, they don't have the personnel or systems or efficiency within our system to actually do their due diligence.

My view is that the figures are not stable. We have suppressed the peak, but we're not by any stretch of the imagination over the hill. In a week from now, we'll start seeing the consequences of people going away for the Easter holidays and the numbers will be much less manageable.

Get comfortable anyway because there's absolutely no way things are going to be lifted in May.