Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

moonlighting_1

moonlighting_1 wrote: »

the numbers are quite shocking really

The numbers are only shocking if you did not understand the scale of what we were facing - Lombardy, population 10 million, Deaths 11,000, Ireland population 4.9million, Deaths 486

Richard Hillman

KindOfIrish wrote: »

Possibly they don't have as many nursing homes as Ireland and their hospitals are run better in terms of hygiene etc.

There are 21,655 nursing home beds in Slovenia for the elderly and Adults in need (don't know how many are filled)

There are 25,000+ in nursing homes in Ireland

The numbers still don't stack.

Sources
http://www.sloveniatimes.com/french-firm-gets-licence-to-run-care-homes-in-slovenia

https://nhi.ie/

podgeandrodge

s1ippy wrote: »

The reason it looks like community transmission is dropping off is because we are not testing in the community.

don't disagree with you s1ippy, but in terms of the above point, we are testing in the community no? Haven't they upped the number of tests dramatically, and it's not just testing in hospitals etc.

bodhrandude

bodhrandude wrote: »

This man is fecking brilliant and just the tonic we need in these turbulent time.

Where's the likes for this guy, I think this is brilliant.

s1ippy

podgeandrodge wrote: »

don't disagree with you s1ippy, but in terms of the above point, we are testing in the community no? Haven't they upped the number of tests dramatically, and it's not just testing in hospitals etc.

Yeah they've upped the test, because they're having to turnover sometimes two tests per person per day in several nursing homes.

They haven't loosened the case definition, if anything they've tightened it to try and manage the most visible outbreak that's going on. And we're still getting that many positive tests a day, imagine now if they were testing randomly in the community. The high percentage of people who have the virus might come as a shock to some.

There's never been a time where it's been more likely that you'll contract this than right now, so take no chances and presume more than ever that everybody is a vector of transmission.

Mic 1972

moonlighting_1 wrote: »

Guys apparently we are not doing that well as regards total cases per million. Was kind of shocked to see us as no 5 on the list.

Excellent video, finally someone who understands how to look at numbers
Ireland was number 5 as most infected country per million in Europe when this video was created. As of yesterday we are now at number 4

Fr_Dougal

China getting hammered with the second wave.

wakka12

Disturbing number of deaths of notable persons in April 2020 from COVID

COVID appears as COD in 140 of the entries in this page for April 2020

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deaths_in_2020


142 COVID death entries in March 2020
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deaths_in_March_2020

Timberrrrrrrr

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Excellent video, finally someone who understands how to look at numbers
Ireland was number 5 as most infected country per million in Europe when this video was created. As of yesterday we are now at number 4

Was just listening to the news there and shocked when they said Ireland also has the highest rate of infection for health care workers in Europe 1/10 cases are health care workers.

smelly sock

smelly sock wrote: »

Its Trump bashing by our media.

Wait until its done - will spread through a population of 5 million at a much higher rate than 330 million.

caveat emptor

Richard Hillman wrote: »

There are 21,655 nursing home beds in Slovenia for the elderly and Adults in need (don't know how many are filled)

There are 25,000+ in nursing homes in Ireland

The numbers still don't stack.

Sources
http://www.sloveniatimes.com/french-firm-gets-licence-to-run-care-homes-in-slovenia

https://nhi.ie/

Don't worry, this is normally how things go when you make a valid observation.

• maybe they are like germans and just better
• maybe they have cleaner air
• maybe they have different case definition etc.

Whataboutery someone labelled it.

Random sample

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

China getting hammered with the second wave.

Or filling in some of the blanks from the first wave?

tobefrank321

s1ippy wrote: »

I can only speak to my own experience but I have exercised an ABUNDANCE of caution. I was absent from my teaching job the week before school was shut down because I have asthma. This turned out to be the correct decision days after the school closed, as a parent whose child socialises with children in my class put on her Instagram that she was awaiting test results. Turned out to be positive and a week and a half after the schools shut, so my SNAs and the parents of children in my class were dealing with their special needs children having brought coronavirus into their homes. I felt incredibly guilty that I had protected myself and not warned them, but how could I really have been sure? I would have sounded "hysterical".

Now my work as a carer is only with one client because one died and I changed my schedule weeks ago. I'm their only help and none of the leave the house. I do shopping for them, I've been doing click and collect which is very nerve-wracking having to go into the shop... but they've freed up slots for carers and the elderly, so I do their shopping with the bits I get for my parents and I have a delivery on Tuesday which should cover three weeks, keeping some in sealed containers in our fridge until the following week which saves me having to do it weekly. I also bought a tonne of my own PPE so I'm using that as we're not allowed to use the agency's stuff when cleaning people's houses or feeding them, only for intimate personal care. Crazy.

The reason it looks like community transmission is dropping off is because we are not testing in the community.

I said it last night and I'll say it again, nine of the ten houses on my road have this infection, a total of around 30 people. The two of us living here are the only ones who aren't sick. Only five of these have a confirmed case. This morning as I was watering the plants, I heard choking from the elderly woman next door, who then collapsed in her garden. Her son rang the ambulance. Note that the son that called for the ambulance was in the house, but he isn't a member of her household. She lives with the youngest son and the daughter who is an air hostess who is a confirmed case. The air hostess is not self isolating and regularly goes out, the younger son (around 19) is also not at home this morning for some unknown reason.

My brother is a contact tracer. He says the scope of who they regard as close contacts is staggeringly limited. Remember the week of our first case, the woman who went from Dublin to Northern Ireland? Nobody who was actually proximal to her on her trip would have been flagged or called, they're not going checking security footage and tracing to discover people's identities. They might have called the bus company but it's up to them then to take further action and they might not.

The brother says he's literally just following a simple script with the confirmed infected person if they're conscious, "were you chatting with anyone during the week? Do you think you might have been closer to them than 2m?" not feckin CSI like some people think, they don't have the personnel or systems or efficiency within our system to actually do their due diligence.

My view is that the figures are not stable. We have suppressed the peak, but we're not by any stretch of the imagination over the hill. In a week from now, we'll start seeing the consequences of people going away for the Easter holidays and the numbers will be much less manageable.

Get comfortable anyway because there's absolutely no way things are going to be lifted in May.

Great post. And tells us more than a 100 HSE "pressers" or speeches by Varadkar ever will about the prevalence and scale of this thing.

EDit

[/I][/I]

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

China getting hammered with the second wave.

How so? I thought their jump today was retrospective cases?

s1ippy

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Was just listening to the news there and shocked when they said Ireland also has the highest rate of infection for health care workers in Europe 1/10 cases are health care workers.

An even more pertinent statistic is that of all our cases, one in six is a healthcare worker.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-harris-says-more-stringent-checks-may-be-needed-at-airports-as-crisis-teams-sent-to-nursing-homes-1.4231333
I feel like my face is being slammed into a sliding door repeatedly. We need screening at the airport, you don't say. I sometimes wonder if he actually genuinely has a serious mental impairment or is it just a brass neck?

Fr_Dougal

Random sample wrote: »

Or filling in some of the blanks from the first wave?

Actually yes, that’s possible also. Maybe they’re realising that their mortality rate is out of sync with the majority of other countries.

KindOfIrish

KindOfIrish wrote: »

Possibly they don't have as many nursing homes as Ireland and their hospitals are run better in terms of hygiene etc.

4.8% of confirmed cases in Slovenia have died compared to 3.6% here. Go HSE

MarkY91

I find it funny how the news keeps showing empty streets like a post apocalyptic empty city.

Local areas have never been more crowded. Parks surely have their highest ever numbers of people going to them, whirl families going on a cycle when it's obvious they never done so in their lives 6 weeks ago.

joeysoap

Came across this in a separate thread


https://youtu.be/BiRDaL9KFPw

Make of what you will

Christy42

Belgium overtakes Spain as the most deaths per capita. And because they don't seem to be testing it is unfortunately understating the issue there in all likelihood.

Alf Veedersane

MarkY91 wrote: »

I find it funny how the news keeps showing empty streets like a post apocalyptic empty city.

Local areas have never been more crowded. Parks surely have their highest ever numbers of people going to them, whirl families going on a cycle when it's obvious they never done so in their lives 6 weeks ago.

I'm about a 15 minute walk from Grafton St and it's very quiet around here. The park I've passed has been empty on both occasions I've passed it.

Not saying you're wrong. Just different experiences and the images on the news aren't all that far removed from what I saw looking up the normally busy road an hour ago.

Professor Moriarty

joeysoap wrote: »

Came across this in a separate thread


https://youtu.be/BiRDaL9KFPw

Make of what you will

Fake.

Martina1991

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Was just listening to the news there and shocked when they said Ireland also has the highest rate of infection for health care workers in Europe 1/10 cases are health care workers.

I wonder how other countries report their healthcare worker cases though.

I remember from a couple of press briefings that although about 25% of Irish cases are healthcare workers, about 1/4 of that again are cases directly associated with becoming infected at work.

So if a healthcare worker in Ireland becomes infected in the community it is still included as a positive case in a healthcare worker.

Other countries may be only reporting cases in healthcare workers if they have been confirmed as becoming infected in a healthcare setting.

Speculation on my part, but like deaths, other countries may not be categorizing and reporting cases the way we do,

Refractions

MarkY91 wrote: »

I find it funny how the news keeps showing empty streets like a post apocalyptic empty city.

Local areas have never been more crowded. Parks surely have their highest ever numbers of people going to them, whirl families going on a cycle when it's obvious they never done so in their lives 6 weeks ago.

How do you know parks are full unless you're there yourself? One rule for you eh?

Silent Running

Comparing the deaths per million of different countries is a bit of a futile exercise. I read the report posted a while back where a US paramedic was attending the deaths of multiple casualties per day (triple that of a normal week), due to heart failure. The families were saying that they had "the" symptoms in the weeks before they died.

The paramedic said that none of these will be recorded as Covid 19 deaths, but as heart failure.

How can you compare one country with another when some countries aren't recording all of the Covid deaths, while others are?

s1ippy

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Great post. And tells us more than a 100 HSE "pressers" or speeches by Varadkar ever will about the prevalence and scale of this thing.

Note as well that myself and my colleagues pieced together the potential transmission after the fact, we realised our risk factor on our own and acted accordingly. My school has still not been contacted to alert them to that woman testing positive, because her children don't go to our school, just children who play with her children.

Schools in Denmark reopened on Wed. They have massively reduced class sizes and are allocating different resources to students at different times and while schools report 90% attendance there is a Facebook group called "my child should not be a guinea pig for Covid-19" where people are keeping their children out of school. They may be vindicated yet. As we've seen from Sweden, Scandanavian countries have an unhealthy level of trust in what their government tells them.

morebabies

Has anyone any thoughts on what they're going to do in September when I assume the schools will be re-opening?
Surely there will be a massive surge in cases along with the seasonal viruses that normally push hospitals to the limit.
I'm asthmatic and my kids are all prone to bad chesty viruses in flu season. Seriously considering homeschooling on a long term basis.

joe_99

joeysoap wrote: »

Came across this in a separate thread


https://youtu.be/BiRDaL9KFPw

Make of what you will

Totally fake. Nonsense.
Stop spreading this propaganda.

Maestro85

I work in a tourism site and it is empty where normally we are very busy this time of year. However, my local area is hopping. I have never seen as many people flaunt the restrictions as I have these last 3 days. The general attitude I am hearing is that of people are upbeat and think restrictions are going to be removed soon because we have it beaten. I am putting it down to a general coping mechanism exhibited en masse.

Curious_Case

Curious_Case wrote: »

I have attached a current screenshot, there seem to be more than 3 European regions above us in the cases per million column.

I know I'm obviously wrong but I haven't found my mistake yet.

Ah, your mistake is obvious. You confirmed your data and applied some critical thinking before blankly spouting second hand nonsense as fact. Rookie mistake

coolshannagh28

Silent Running wrote: »

Comparing the deaths per million of different countries is a bit of a futile exercise. I read the report posted a while back where a US paramedic was attending the deaths of multiple casualties per day (triple that of a normal week), due to heart failure. The families were saying that they had "the" symptoms in the weeks before they died.

The paramedic said that none of these will be recorded as Covid 19 deaths, but as heart failure.

How can you compare one country with another when some countries aren't recording all of the Covid deaths, while others are?

Each country has its own strategy for "managing" the numbers and I imagine when it passes there will be retrospective increases in deaths ala China as the heat goes out of it politically.

tobefrank321

Are they even bothering with testing those who might have been infected in the community any more?

As some people have said, of course community cases are going to be low if you don't bother testing those cases. It feels like an Irish solution to an Irish problem. If we don't look for it, we wont find it, therefore it doesn't exist.

From listening to Holohans briefings, it seems like they are testing healthcare professionals, hospital patients, nursing home staff and this is where the focus is. After that they are testing known contacts of these, such as those who share their home

But if you possibly contracted CV19 in the community and don't know how and are not in the above category, you go right to the back of the queue and may not even be tested at all. And then they boast that known community infections are down. Its likely they haven't a clue what the numbers of community infections are.

I wish the journalists at the briefings would ask incisive questions for a change that attempts to reveal the truth.

Richard Hillman

Maestro85 wrote: »

I work in a tourism site and it is empty where normally we are very busy this time of year. However, my local area is hopping. I have never seen as many people flaunt the restrictions as I have these last 3 days. The general attitude I am hearing is that of people are upbeat and think restrictions are going to be removed soon because we have it beaten. I am putting it down to a general coping mechanism exhibited en masse.

Things have slipped majorly over the last week or so. There is a false sense of security from the false messages we are receiving from the "great job" we have been doing, even though we are one of the worst countries effected.

Snow Garden

morebabies wrote: »

Has anyone any thoughts on what they're going to do in September when I assume the schools will be re-opening?
Surely there will be a massive surge in cases along with the seasonal viruses that normally push hospitals to the limit.

Yes

252 days until Christmas

And don't call be Shirley.

Drumpot

Silent Running wrote: »

Comparing the deaths per million of different countries is a bit of a futile exercise. I read the report posted a while back where a US paramedic was attending the deaths of multiple casualties per day (triple that of a normal week), due to heart failure. The families were saying that they had "the" symptoms in the weeks before they died.

The paramedic said that none of these will be recorded as Covid 19 deaths, but as heart failure.

How can you compare one country with another when some countries aren't recording all of the Covid deaths, while others are?

There is legitimate concerns but a disconnect when it comes to recognising that this is a crisis where our authority’s don’t have any experience at handling. They are doing their best in an ever changing environment that most countries don’t have under control. This is about making the least amount of mistakes and the least worse calls.

I’d been calling for more action and communication, weeks before the parades were cancelled so nobody knows more then me how badly it was initially handled. However, trying to dissect what we think is happening by comparing with other countries when we don’t have all the information or variables to make fair comparisons, is futile. It’s confirmation bias by trying to find countries that prove a point that may be invalid by the end of the pandemic or irrelevant with regards to information available versus actual status.

I’ve heard some concerning stuff about the HSE and PPE but there’s no point in sharing it here. They are making mistakes but we are stuck with them for this crisis.

When people are whinging about our numbers, it’s not all our governments fault , the people of our country have a lot to answer for in how they responded. Other countries can rely more on the compliance of their people to be responsible. I’d argue if maybe we looked at that, by default we would value it more and thus choose more responsible governments.

People blaming the HSE need to remind me how many of them had the restructure of this body as their primary reason for voting for a party. How much did they push for a better/improved service and even a more progressive emergency response unit that would prepare for potential crisis?

A government voted into power represents the population And what they want. Everytime something goes wrong , the public washes their hands of responsibility and vote out that government that’s the scapegoat.

The people of Ireland need only look in the mirror for the good and bad that is going on over this crisis. I say this as somebody who has been preparing for this crisis since early February, was ready for it when it struck, warned people well in advance and still feel a level of responsibility for not doing more.

If everybody took responsibility for their role in this we would have a more progressive society that makes less mistakes. It’s easier to blame others and you learn nothing from that.

mandrake04

Abbott released their Serology IgG Antibody test for their Architect immunoassay i platform yesterday.

The RD Elecsys sero test is out in a few weeks.

HSE need to be on the front foot with this, they need to get in additional analysers dedicated for running Sero on CV19. If the demand for these CV19 AB test hits hospital labs they going be swamped as these Immuno Platforms are used for Trops, pregs, Tumor markers etc and will affect normal day to day hospital operation. If there is no capacity it’s going be another omnishambles in the making.

ek motor

Guayas province in Equador usually sees an average of 2000 deaths per month. Over 14000 recorded since the beginning of March.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-52324218

Mic 1972

Curious_Case wrote: »

I have attached a current screenshot, there seem to be more than 3 European regions above us in the cases per million column.

I know I'm obviously wrong but I haven't found my mistake yet.

You are correct, but in the analysis he excluded the smaller countries like Vatican, San Marino, Andorra, Gibraltar and somehow Iceland
This is the current update. We are still number 5
This chart is obviously affected by the number of tests, not all the below countries are at the same rate but most of the countries below have between 15K and 20K tests per million

Number of certified cases per Million Population

Spain = 3,956
Switzerland = 3,129
Belgium = 3,118
Italy = 2,794
Ireland = 2,688
France = 2,528
Portugal = 1,866
Netherlands = 1,705
Germany = 1,650
Austria = 1,613
UK = 1,519

Widdensushi

Maestro85 wrote: »

I work in a tourism site and it is empty where normally we are very busy this time of year. However, my local area is hopping. I have never seen as many people flaunt the restrictions as I have these last 3 days. The general attitude I am hearing is that of people are upbeat and think restrictions are going to be removed soon because we have it beaten. I am putting it down to a general coping mechanism exhibited en masse.

or are starting to believe that this approach is not sustainable as we are hearing no mention of an exit plan

tobefrank321

mandrake04 wrote: »

Abbott released their Serology IgG Antibody test for their Architect immunoassay i platform yesterday.

The RD Elecsys sero test is out in a few weeks.

HSE need to be on the front foot with this, they need to get in additional analysers dedicated for running Sero on CV19. If the demand for these CV19 AB test hits hospital labs they going be swamped as these Immuno Platforms are used for Trops, pregs, Tumor markers etc and will affect normal day to day hospital operation. If there is no capacity it’s going be another omnishambles in the making.

I think we all know that's going to be the outcome. This is the HSE - omnishambles is their middle name.

You need to raise it directly with the HSE, if they will listen.

Mwengwe

s1ippy wrote: »

I can only speak to my own experience but I have exercised an ABUNDANCE of caution. I was absent from my teaching job the week before school was shut down because I have asthma. This turned out to be the correct decision days after the school closed, as a parent whose child socialises with children in my class put on her Instagram that she was awaiting test results. Turned out to be positive and a week and a half after the schools shut, so my SNAs and the parents of children in my class were dealing with their special needs children having brought coronavirus into their homes. I felt incredibly guilty that I had protected myself and not warned them, but how could I really have been sure? I would have sounded "hysterical".

Now my work as a carer is only with one client because one died and I changed my schedule weeks ago. I'm their only help and none of the leave the house. I do shopping for them, I've been doing click and collect which is very nerve-wracking having to go into the shop... but they've freed up slots for carers and the elderly, so I do their shopping with the bits I get for my parents and I have a delivery on Tuesday which should cover three weeks, keeping some in sealed containers in our fridge until the following week which saves me having to do it weekly. I also bought a tonne of my own PPE so I'm using that as we're not allowed to use the agency's stuff when cleaning people's houses or feeding them, only for intimate personal care. Crazy.

The reason it looks like community transmission is dropping off is because we are not testing in the community.

I said it last night and I'll say it again, nine of the ten houses on my road have this infection, a total of around 30 people. The two of us living here are the only ones who aren't sick. Only five of these have a confirmed case. This morning as I was watering the plants, I heard choking from the elderly woman next door, who then collapsed in her garden. Her son rang the ambulance. Note that the son that called for the ambulance was in the house, but he isn't a member of her household. She lives with the youngest son and the daughter who is an air hostess who is a confirmed case. The air hostess is not self isolating and regularly goes out, the younger son (around 19) is also not at home this morning for some unknown reason.

My brother is a contact tracer. He says the scope of who they regard as close contacts is staggeringly limited. Remember the week of our first case, the woman who went from Dublin to Northern Ireland? Nobody who was actually proximal to her on her trip would have been flagged or called, they're not going checking security footage and tracing to discover people's identities. They might have called the bus company but it's up to them then to take further action and they might not.

The brother says he's literally just following a simple script with the confirmed infected person if they're conscious, "were you chatting with anyone during the week? Do you think you might have been closer to them than 2m?" not feckin CSI like some people think, they don't have the personnel or systems or efficiency within our system to actually do their due diligence.

My view is that the figures are not stable. We have suppressed the peak, but we're not by any stretch of the imagination over the hill. In a week from now, we'll start seeing the consequences of people going away for the Easter holidays and the numbers will be much less manageable.

Get comfortable anyway because there's absolutely no way things are going to be lifted in May.

Post stretches credibility in places, you're diligently isolating but have still somehow ascertained the exact number of neighbours who are infected (not all confirmed). Are you communicating with them by code?

ek motor

mandrake04 wrote: »

Abbott released their Serology IgG Antibody test for their Architect immunoassay i platform yesterday.

The RD Elecsys sero test is out in a few weeks.

HSE need to be on the front foot with this, they need to get in additional analysers dedicated for running Sero on CV19. If the demand for these CV19 AB test hits hospital labs they going be swamped as these Immuno Platforms are used for Trops, pregs, Tumor markers etc and will affect normal day to day hospital operation. If there is no capacity it’s going be another omnishambles in the making.

I think I understood about 3 words of your post ! What are you saying , in English ?

FishOnABike

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Excellent video, finally someone who understands how to look at numbers
Ireland was number 5 as most infected country per million in Europe when this video was created. As of yesterday we are now at number 4

I have to disagree. Per million is a meaningless comparison until the pandemic has burned itself out in all the countries being compared. It will take more time to spread through a larger population.

Per million population is not a valid way to compare countries at this point in time, for a number of reasons.

Different countries are using different criteria for diagnosing CiViD-19, some use differential diagnosis based on symptoms, others on diagnostic test results; some countries are only counting diagnosed hospital deaths and don't include nursing home or home deaths.

Some countries record cause of death differently e.g. one country might record cause of death as pneumonia or heart failure with CoViD-19 secondary whereas another would record the cause of death as CoViD-19 with pneumonia or heart failure secondary.

Less developed countries may not even have the capability to collect reliable statistics.

Even if all countries being compared were using the same diagnostic criteria and recording cause of death in exactly the same way it still wouldn't be valid to compare per population until after the pandemic had ended in all countries being compared.

If one person, on average infects four others, the virus will spread from 1 to 4, 16, 64, 256, 1024, 4096, etc... the same in a country of 5 million as a country of 50 million. It will take longer to spread to the same % population in a more populous country. Until the virus has spread to the majority of people in both, a per population comparison will always make the less populous country's stats appear to be worse.

The best measure during the pandemic is the rate of spread.

Since CoViD-19 seems to be asymptomatic or only mildly symptomatic in a significant percentage of cases even the rate of spread has to be inferred from mortality, ICU and hospital admission rates making comparisons between countries with different access to healthcare difficult.

At the moment the best measures are the spread or replication rate and ability of a country's healthcare infrastructure to cope. On both counts we appear to be coping relatively well and heading in the right direction.

Christy42

Richard Hillman wrote: »

Things have slipped majorly over the last week or so. There is a false sense of security from the false messages we are receiving from the "great job" we have been doing, even though we are one of the worst countries effected.

We are not near the worst. I feel like we could do better. We are behind the likes of Korea and Germany.

But the existence of the US, UK, France, Spain, Italy, Switzerland, Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium mean we are not one fo the worst affected. I could probably point to others that are not checking for cases as well. Ecuador, Brazil. Iran and China have long been suspected of dodgy numbers.

The difference between us and a lot of countries is we have done more testing. We knew cases were out there and we are one of the few that have gone out and checked for them. I won't say we are one of the best but to put us in with the above just doesn't seem logical.

hmmm

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Why didn't the HSE send a fact finding team to Italy 6 weeks ago? Why didn't the WHO issue clear instructions to the HSE on stricter protocols for nursing homes? Why didn't the government issue even the bare minimum of PPE?

The HSE has had regular videoconferences with several international experts, including Italy and China.

It's not the WHO's job to tell local governments what to do.

The government has just spent 200 million on getting in PPE, and moved on this well before most other countries did.

We've done a great job so far. Could do better, but we have moved fast, and made fast decisions. In every huge crisis like this there will be things that could have been done better in hindsight, and you'll always have to deal with hurlers on the ditch telling you where you went wrong.

FishOnABike

FishOnABike wrote: »

I have to disagree. Per million is a meaningless comparison until the pandemic has burned itself out in all the countries being compared. It will take more time to spread through a larger population.

Per million population is not a valid way to compare countries at this point in time, for a number of reasons.

Different countries are using different criteria for diagnosing CiViD-19, some use differential diagnosis based on symptoms, others on diagnostic test results; some countries are only counting diagnosed hospital deaths and don't include nursing home or home deaths.

Some countries record cause of death differently e.g. one country might record cause of death as pneumonia or heart failure with CoViD-19 secondary whereas another would record the cause of death as CoViD-19 with pneumonia or heart failure secondary.

Less developed countries may not even have the capability to collect reliable statistics.

Even if all countries being compared were using the same diagnostic criteria and recording cause of death in exactly the same way it still wouldn't be valid to compare per population until after the pandemic had ended in all countries being compared.

If one person, on average infects four others, the virus will spread from 1 to 4, 16, 64, 256, 1024, 4096, etc... the same in a country of 5 million as a country of 50 million. It will take longer to spread to the same % population in a more populous country. Until the virus has spread to the majority of people in both, a per population comparison will always make the less populous country's stats appear to be worse.

The best measure during the pandemic is the rate of spread.

Since CoViD-19 seems to be asymptomatic or only mildly symptomatic in a significant percentage of cases even the rate of spread has to be inferred from mortality, ICU and hospital admission rates making comparisons between countries with different access to healthcare difficult.

At the moment the best measures are the spread or replication rate and ability of a country's healthcare infrastructure to cope. On both counts we appear to be coping relatively well and heading in the right direction.

But the airports are still open and Mary down the road went for a 2.1k walk the other day

Mwengwe

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

China getting hammered with the second wave.

No they're not. Yet anyway.

mandrake04

ek motor wrote: »

I think I understood about 3 words of your post ! What are you saying , in English ?

Theres going be some new reagent packs coming on the market, but because these packs use hospital anaylers that test if you are having heart attack etc the danger is the demand of testing frontline workers and the greater general population it’s going put more workload the day to day work in Hospital lab.

If you are smart you would have a dedicated serology lab to run CV19, what I’m saying are the HSE awake at the wheel?

Curious_Case

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Ah, your mistake is obvious. You confirmed your data and applied some critical thinking before blankly spouting second hand nonsense as fact. Rookie mistake

No, I was correct.

MarkY91

Alf Veedersane wrote: »

I'm about a 15 minute walk from Grafton St and it's very quiet around here. The park I've passed has been empty on both occasions I've passed it.

Not saying you're wrong. Just different experiences and the images on the news aren't all that far removed from what I saw looking up the normally busy road an hour ago.

I know I'm not wrong. You obviously live in the city centre...I said local areas. Not town. Take a trip to virtually any park outside of the city centre...you're in for a surprise.