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Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

1144145147149150192

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,527 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    hmmm wrote: »
    The HSE has had regular videoconferences with several international experts, including Italy and China.

    It's not the WHO's job to tell local governments what to do.

    The government has just spent 200 million on getting in PPE, and moved on this well before most other countries did.

    We've done a great job so far. Could do better, but we have moved fast, and made fast decisions. In every huge crisis like this there will be things that could have been done better in hindsight, and you'll always have to deal with hurlers on the ditch telling you where you went wrong.

    Er yes it is. That's why countries pay them. To provide timely and accurate information on highly contagious potential pandemics. And to offer advice on best practice. Oddly enough countries which ignored their advice on not implementing travel bans did the best out of this outbreak. Those who took on board their advice not to ban travel fared worst. So the WHO have been negligent in offering the right kind of advice in a timely manner.

    As for doing a great job, FFS. They react always after the sh*t hits the fan. The nursing homes are the latest example.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭owlbethere


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    Excellent video, finally someone who understands how to look at numbers
    Ireland was number 5 as most infected country per million in Europe when this video was created. As of yesterday we are now at number 4

    Does the hse briefings take in the number of infected per head of population?

    Is there a briefing tonight? Can a journalist ask about this? The number of infected per head of population?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,527 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    But the airports are still open and Mary down the road went for a 2.1k walk the other day

    Ports are also open, and Jonny, wife and the kids came a couple hundred miles from London to a funeral in Birr to meet 150 of the extended family.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    hmmm wrote: »
    The HSE has had regular videoconferences with several international experts, including Italy and China.

    It's not the WHO's job to tell local governments what to do.

    The government has just spent 200 million on getting in PPE, and moved on this well before most other countries did.

    We've done a great job so far. Could do better, but we have moved fast, and made fast decisions. In every huge crisis like this there will be things that could have been done better in hindsight, and you'll always have to deal with hurlers on the ditch telling you where you went wrong.


    Eh no they didn't. Here's a post from ~6 weeks ago. Again this show's foresight not hindsight. You keep mixing them up :confused: I'd hardly call our response faster than other countries. Wonder the price difference if we had got ahead of time.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112769951&postcount=2621
    Coronavirus: Doctors warn UK hospitals running out of protective equipment for staff

    That's not going to help them stay alive. I've a family member who is a nurse. Purchased their own Personal Protective Equipment a few weeks ago. Has experience in Africa so knew what was needed.

    Another supply side problem.

    "This is going to be the game changer and nobody wants to address the problem. Our masks are made in China and they aren’t about to let any stock leave the country. Of our key PPE lines three are now unavailable for the rest of March and who knows when from there."



    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/h...box=1583711950


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,886 ✭✭✭✭Roger_007


    or are starting to believe that this approach is not sustainable as we are hearing no mention of an exit plan
    I think everyone knows that the current restrictions are not sustainable in the longer term.
    One thing that is not being discussed publicly by the politicians and the medical authorities is that assuming that we can ‘flatten the curve’, what are we left with and how can we deal with it?
    Even if we reduce the transmission rate to very low levels, we are left with a population that mostly have no immunity. What are the prospects for the most at-risk groups in such a scenario? Are the over 70s going to be told that they must stay ‘cocooned’ until a vaccine materialises whenever that may be?
    Ironically, the more successful the current strategy is, the bigger the future problem becomes.
    These questions are being avoided in the public arena.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Live at the moment.

    Live: Chinese medical expert shares #COVID19 working experience with overseas medics #Covid19Frontline

    https://twitter.com/CGTNOfficial/status/1251119109925769216?s=20


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 38,977 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    hmmm wrote:
    The HSE has had regular videoconferences with several international experts, including Italy and China.
    Video conferencing isn't nearly the same thing as a fact finding mission. When you go to the country you see things like what's really going on, get to talk to people who are not persuaded by politics. You get the feeling if they are hiding something and can investigate discretely.
    All you are getting in Video conferences is what they want you to hear.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭Gynoid


    ek motor wrote: »
    Guayas province in Equador usually sees an average of 2000 deaths per month. Over 14000 recorded since the beginning of March.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-52324218

    Absolutely fecken mad.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,994 ✭✭✭✭expectationlost


    Dr Colm Henry is says what happened in St Fintans/Maryborough Portlaoise was an exemplar. at 1 hr 04 mins https://t.co/vQ73xmnWY2


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,685 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    joeysoap wrote: »
    Came across this in a separate thread


    https://youtu.be/BiRDaL9KFPw

    Make of what you will

    Should post a warning if you link to a fruitcake


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Live at the moment.

    Live: Chinese medical expert shares #COVID19 working experience with overseas medics #Covid19Frontline

    https://twitter.com/CGTNOfficial/status/1251119109925769216?s=20

    Professor from wuhan. It's a new infectious disease.
    None of the nurses or doctors went home to families while working on the isolation wards.

    Masks most important factor. N95 on the ward. Surgical mask when not on the wards. "Most important is the mask" Infectious disease. It's a no brainer basically.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,874 ✭✭✭Deeper Blue


    Why do people keep comparing Ireland to other countries in terms of cases and deaths per million population?

    It's been established dozens of times that countries aren't comparable due to differences in testing and reporting of deaths

    People seem to want to use these figures as a stick to beat Ireland with, it's bizarre


  • Registered Users Posts: 439 ✭✭paddythere


    Roger_007 wrote: »
    I think everyone knows that the current restrictions are not sustainable in the longer term.
    One thing that is not being discussed publicly by the politicians and the medical authorities is that assuming that we can ‘flatten the curve’, what are we left with and how can we deal with it?
    Even if we reduce the transmission rate to very low levels, we are left with a population that mostly have no immunity. What are the prospects for the most at-risk groups in such a scenario? Are the over 70s going to be told that they must stay ‘cocooned’ until a vaccine materialises whenever that may be?
    Ironically, the more successful the current strategy is, the bigger the future problem becomes.
    These questions are being avoided in the public arena.

    I have to say, I agree with you about this. I expected by this stage we would be at least be starting to have a discussion about how to restructure society so as to cope better with going back to work, cuccooning the elderly and sick etc. I think the govt need to come up with a detailed plan for how to handle this: sorting out some kind of accommodation alternative for people who will need to get back to work but live with an old or sick person but it seems as though that problem is just left to the individual to work out for themselves which is not really gonna cut it in this situation.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    eagle eye wrote: »
    Video conferencing isn't nearly the same thing as a fact finding mission. When you go to the country you see things like what's really going on, get to talk to people who are not persuaded by politics. You get the feeling if they are hiding something and can investigate discretely.
    All you are getting in Video conferences is what they want you to hear.
    The Italians were quite busy at the time, I doubt they wanted to host a bunch of people from the HSE and 140 other countries wandering around their hospitals.

    The ECDC and the WHO are the experts on the ground, and will report back to the individual countries with their findings.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,950 ✭✭✭ChikiChiki


    Guys apparently we are not doing that well as regards total cases per million. Was kind of shocked to see us as no 5 on the list.


    We are doing well. Settle a bit.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,740 ✭✭✭✭MD1990


    what countries apart from China have a policy of mask wearing when at all times outside or in a public area?

    Maybe this why the virus is not declining as qucikly in Italy & Spain as it did in China.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    NDWC wrote: »
    People seem to want to use these figures as a stick to beat Ireland with, it's bizarre
    There's a lot of people who seem to delight in talking everything down. Whether that's because of politics, boredom or they are just cranks is hard to know.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,980 ✭✭✭s1ippy


    Mwengwe wrote: »
    Post stretches credibility in places, you're diligently isolating but have still somehow ascertained the exact number of neighbours who are infected (not all confirmed). Are you communicating with them by code?
    They shout over my hedge at each other and I'm in and around my back garden almost all the time. If that's what you take from my post you're doing some serious wriggling to be in denial.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    paddythere wrote: »
    I have to say, I agree with you about this. I expected by this stage we would be at least be starting to have a discussion about how to restructure society so as to cope better with going back to work, cuccooning the elderly and sick etc. I think the govt need to come up with a detailed plan for how to handle this: sorting out some kind of accommodation alternative for people who will need to get back to work but live with an old or sick person but it seems as though that problem is just left to the individual to work out for themselves which is not really gonna cut it in this situation.

    I’d hope that there are groups working on contingency plans but right now there isn’t much benefit of throwing out ideas publicly while so many things are up in the air. We can watch other countries experimenting with partial opening of restrictions. We also can’t do much before we see our own numbers consistently ease off.

    One thing I was thinking was that we could ask all the population to keep diaries of where they go and who they meet for contact tracing. A phone app is easier but paranoid people will see this as a little but too close to being like “1984” society. Personally I see the recording of my movements a small price to pay if it allows us to get back to a more normal kind of way of living. It’s not being done so we can be watched, it’s being done for a very specific reason that’s a simple trade off until a vaccine comes out.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,842 ✭✭✭Rob A. Bank


    NDWC wrote: »
    Why do people keep comparing Ireland to other countries in terms of cases and deaths per million population?

    It's been established dozens of times that countries aren't comparable due to differences in testing and reporting of deaths

    People seem to want to use these figures as a stick to beat Ireland with, it's bizarre

    What is really 'bizarre' is the notion that the figures produced by ALL the health departments of the countries, who have better deaths per million than us, are suspect.

    If it does not fit the 'Ohh our HSE is doing a fantastic job' narrative... it's fake news.

    Sounds a bit like Trump really !


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 763 ✭✭✭joe_99


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    You are correct, but in the analysis he excluded the smaller countries like Vatican, San Marino, Andorra, Gibraltar and somehow Iceland
    This is the current update. We are still number 5
    This chart is obviously affected by the number of tests, not all the below countries are at the same rate but most of the countries below have between 15K and 20K tests per million

    Number of certified cases per Million Population

    Spain = 3,956
    Switzerland = 3,129
    Belgium = 3,118
    Italy = 2,794
    Ireland = 2,688
    France = 2,528
    Portugal = 1,866
    Netherlands = 1,705
    Germany = 1,650
    Austria = 1,613
    UK = 1,519

    You are obsessed with cases which are a function of testing. 12k extra deaths in Ecuador than usual yet they have less cases than us per million.

    I really hope we keep climbing up that leaderboard and drop down death leaderboard as both will e a function of more testing. Test test test.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Is there a reason why Paul Murphy's hurling from the ditch should go here? Not seeing the logic at all.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    hmmm wrote: »
    The HSE has had regular videoconferences with several international experts, including Italy and China.

    It's not the WHO's job to tell local governments what to do.

    The government has just spent 200 million on getting in PPE, and moved on this well before most other countries did.

    We've done a great job so far. Could do better, but we have moved fast, and made fast decisions. In every huge crisis like this there will be things that could have been done better in hindsight, and you'll always have to deal with hurlers on the ditch telling you where you went wrong.


    It is their job. WHO did warn. Nobody listened. Report from September 2019.

    https://twitter.com/julianhitchcock/status/1248875158720466944?s=20


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    MD1990 wrote: »
    what countries apart from China have a policy of mask wearing when at all times outside or in a public area?

    Maybe this why the virus is not declining as qucikly in Italy & Spain as it did in China.

    Czech Rep does anyway and perhaps Austria, I think Singapore, Vietnam, South Korea do too


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    joe_99 wrote: »
    You are obsessed with cases which are a function of testing. 12k extra deaths in Ecuador than usual yet they have less cases than us per million.
    Yes. It's a completely - completely - meaningless statistic when countries are doing different levels of testing.

    I'd be fairly certain that Iran will come out on top of every chart if cases and deaths were recorded correctly, they are the only country so far which had a completely out-of-control epidemic.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,685 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    It is their job. WHO did warn. Nobody listened. Report from September 2019.

    https://twitter.com/julianhitchcock/status/1248875158720466944?s=20

    So they knew all about it that long ago :eek:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,660 ✭✭✭✭Alf Veedersane


    MarkY91 wrote: »
    I know I'm not wrong. You obviously live in the city centre...I said local areas. Not town. Take a trip to virtually any park outside of the city centre...you're in for a surprise.

    Maybe but you saw a couple of parks...bit of a leap for you to then say virtually any park outside city centre would be packed.

    They're not city centre parks I've seen either.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Guys apparently we are not doing that well as regards total cases per million. Was kind of shocked to see us as no 5 on the list.

    Someone sent me a link to a "really good" feature film length video on improving your immune system. Needless to say it remains unwatched. Is the credibility of YouTube videos proportional to their length? I'd look in on the CMO & Co to see what we are up to over this. Much more informative despite the dubious quality of some of the questioning.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    It is their job. WHO did warn. Nobody listened. Report from September 2019.
    It's their job agreed to warn governments, and tell them what they should do. It's our job to take the advice of WHO and apply it to our particular circumstances - which we did for the most part, and very well - in particular the advice in the current circumstances to act fast and not wait for full information.


  • Registered Users Posts: 464 ✭✭Iamabeliever


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    Excellent video, finally someone who understands how to look at numbers
    Ireland was number 5 as most infected country per million in Europe when this video was created. As of yesterday we are now at number 4

    Why don't you compare us to Iceland? They have terrible cases per million?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    fritzelly wrote: »
    So they knew all about it that long ago :eek:
    It's a generic warning about a pandemic which was inevitable. We've known about it for thousands of years.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,740 ✭✭✭✭MD1990


    Remember we had officials from Ireland & the UK saying that if restrictions(lockdown we are in now) was brought in too soon people would struggle to stick with it.

    Well now they are saying there may be restrictions until a vaccine.

    Really should have started blocking all non essential flights back at the start of February
    If that happened with would be in great shape now to ease the lockdown & have people working


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Is there a reason why Paul Murphy's hurling from the ditch should go here? Not seeing the logic at all.

    You said who should the blame targets be this week. I posted as we should probably look at the public / private contract. Paul Murphy is an elected representative asking a question regarding the allocation of public funds during a national crisis.

    Demeaning to refer to it as hurling from the ditch.

    His question is "Why are we paying 4 times more that UK for private hospital beds?" It was never answered.

    Seems very expensive if not operated on a "non profit" basis. I'd say the suppliers of staff and equipment for hospitals are making a profit at those rates.


  • Registered Users Posts: 454 ✭✭Mwengwe


    s1ippy wrote: »
    They shout over my hedge at each other and I'm in and around my back garden almost all the time. If that's what you take from my post you're doing some serious wriggling to be in denial.

    Haha I wish i was in denial, I'm very dread-riddled. Just find it amusing trying to picture this scenario where the neighbours are all shouting to eachother 'I think I've got it!' and where you seem to be tracking the movements of each house occupant. But if it is all true I'd definitely be ratting them out to the Guards at this point.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,745 ✭✭✭✭AdamD


    s1ippy wrote: »
    I can only speak to my own experience but I have exercised an ABUNDANCE of caution. I was absent from my teaching job the week before school was shut down because I have asthma. This turned out to be the correct decision days after the school closed, as a parent whose child socialises with children in my class put on her Instagram that she was awaiting test results. Turned out to be positive and a week and a half after the schools shut, so my SNAs and the parents of children in my class were dealing with their special needs children having brought coronavirus into their homes. I felt incredibly guilty that I had protected myself and not warned them, but how could I really have been sure? I would have sounded "hysterical".

    Now my work as a carer is only with one client because one died and I changed my schedule weeks ago. I'm their only help and none of the leave the house. I do shopping for them, I've been doing click and collect which is very nerve-wracking having to go into the shop... but they've freed up slots for carers and the elderly, so I do their shopping with the bits I get for my parents and I have a delivery on Tuesday which should cover three weeks, keeping some in sealed containers in our fridge until the following week which saves me having to do it weekly. I also bought a tonne of my own PPE so I'm using that as we're not allowed to use the agency's stuff when cleaning people's houses or feeding them, only for intimate personal care. Crazy.

    The reason it looks like community transmission is dropping off is because we are not testing in the community.

    I said it last night and I'll say it again, nine of the ten houses on my road have this infection, a total of around 30 people. The two of us living here are the only ones who aren't sick. Only five of these have a confirmed case. This morning as I was watering the plants, I heard choking from the elderly woman next door, who then collapsed in her garden. Her son rang the ambulance. Note that the son that called for the ambulance was in the house, but he isn't a member of her household. She lives with the youngest son and the daughter who is an air hostess who is a confirmed case. The air hostess is not self isolating and regularly goes out, the younger son (around 19) is also not at home this morning for some unknown reason.

    My brother is a contact tracer. He says the scope of who they regard as close contacts is staggeringly limited. Remember the week of our first case, the woman who went from Dublin to Northern Ireland? Nobody who was actually proximal to her on her trip would have been flagged or called, they're not going checking security footage and tracing to discover people's identities. They might have called the bus company but it's up to them then to take further action and they might not.

    The brother says he's literally just following a simple script with the confirmed infected person if they're conscious, "were you chatting with anyone during the week? Do you think you might have been closer to them than 2m?" not feckin CSI like some people think, they don't have the personnel or systems or efficiency within our system to actually do their due diligence.

    My view is that the figures are not stable. We have suppressed the peak, but we're not by any stretch of the imagination over the hill. In a week from now, we'll start seeing the consequences of people going away for the Easter holidays and the numbers will be much less manageable.

    Get comfortable anyway because there's absolutely no way things are going to be lifted in May.
    This is all purely anecdotal though.....

    I know 1 person total who has it, nobody else who has even had symptons out of my friends/family. Just as meaningless as judging it from 1 road in the country. Also keeping in mind how low the positive test rates are - the vast majority of people who think they have it, actually don't.

    And the poster who suggested it means more than the HSE figures? Have you lost the plot?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,652 ✭✭✭✭bodhrandude


    Where is the recovery stats for Ireland fcuk all this misery porn.

    If you want to get into it, you got to get out of it. (Hawkwind 1982)



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    hmmm wrote: »
    It's a generic warning about a pandemic which was inevitable. We've known about it for thousands of years.

    Ha, not exactly generic.

    A rapidly spreading pandemic due to a lethal respiratory pathogen
    (whether naturally emergent or accidentally or deliberately released) poses additional preparedness requirements.


    509940.png

    https://apps.who.int/gpmb/assets/annual_report/GPMB_Annual_Report_English.pdf


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 38,977 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    Tell me what's wrong with the following idea?
    Nobody in unless they are willing to be and pay for quarantine for two weeks upon arrival in our country.
    Remain in lockdown until two weeks after we have zero new cases.
    You break the lockdown rules you get remanded in custody until the lockdown is over at which time your case will be heard and a suitable punishment given.

    I'm sure some will say Draconian but we are trying to save lives here. We need order, we need everybody, not nearly everybody, to be responsible.
    I think leadership that is not afraid to be tough is what we're missing.

    And let's stop looking at other countries and comparing. Look at countries that are doing very well and see how you can improve things yourself.


  • Registered Users Posts: 464 ✭✭Iamabeliever


    Where is the recovery stats for Ireland fcuk all this misery porn.

    77 if your gullible enough


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    You said who should the blame targets be this week. I posted as we should probably look at the public / private contract. Paul Murphy is an elected representative asking a question regarding the allocation of public funds during a national crisis.

    Demeaning to refer to it as hurling from the ditch.

    His question is "Why are we paying 4 times more that UK for private hospital beds?" It was never answered.

    Seems very expensive if not operated on a "non profit" basis. I'd say the suppliers of staff and equipment for hospitals are making a profit at those rates.
    He's well worth demeaning! Hmm, €5bn for payment support and he's in a snot over a tiny sum. Yet more tone deaf stuff. There'll be time for that review but Murphy was just itching to get on Twitter to have a pop. So, what exactly does the TD want anyone to do about it at this moment?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,842 ✭✭✭Rob A. Bank


    hmmm wrote: »
    It's their job agreed to warn governments, and tell them what they should do. It's our job to take the advice of WHO and apply it to our particular circumstances - which we did for the most part, and very well - in particular the advice in the current circumstances to act fast and not wait for full information.

    Are you living in some sort of alternative universe ?

    The HSE did most of the right things eventually but too late to control the virus.

    They certainly did not act fast or 'very well'.

    How else do you explain our terrible case numbers and deaths ?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    77 if your gullible enough

    They're just the numbers for ICU discharges (now 90 since yesterday), thousands more will have recovered without being officially recorded.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,652 ✭✭✭✭bodhrandude


    If you want to get into it, you got to get out of it. (Hawkwind 1982)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    77 if your gullible enough
    It's not really known, that's ICU and hospital stuff. IMO it's better to hear people have come out of ICU. You'd expect they'll get round to some random antibody testing and guessing how many were affected.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,063 CMod ✭✭✭✭Ten of Swords


    The Northern Ireland statistics body has published a revised death figure for NI which includes residential care homes. As at the week ending 12th of April they recorded 157 deaths from Covid, the public health agency had reported 118 excluding care homes.

    https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/weekly-deaths


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    is_that_so wrote: »
    He's well worth demeaning! Hmm, €5bn for payment support and he's in snot over a tiny sum. Yet more tone deaf stuff. There'll be time for that review but Murphy was just itching to get on Twitter to have a pop. So, what exactly does the TD want anyone to do about it at this moment?

    I don't know? Nationalise them? Private model doesn't work during pandemic.
    As for a review. I would think the operators would like a post mortem on how someone could sign such a one sided contract.

    The government got a massive PR boost for "acquiring the private hospital use". Doesn't sound as good if we are paying 4 times as much as our nearest neighbour.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,861 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    My biggest concern is that I took the authorities at their word that "community growth is near zero now", but plenty on here are saying that this is because there is sweet fa testing.

    Who to believe.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    eagle eye wrote: »
    Tell me what's wrong with the following idea?
    Nobody in unless they are willing to be and pay for quarantine for two weeks upon arrival in our country.
    Remain in lockdown until two weeks after we have zero new cases.
    You break the lockdown rules you get remanded in custody until the lockdown is over at which time your case will be heard and a suitable punishment given.

    I'm sure some will say Draconian but we are trying to save lives here. We need order, we need everybody, not nearly everybody, to be responsible.
    I think leadership that is not afraid to be tough is what we're missing.

    And let's stop looking at other countries and comparing. Look at countries that are doing very well and see how you can improve things yourself.
    Big problem there is the huge financial cost to the State for unlawful arrest never mind the very strong likelihood you'd have rioting!


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,980 ✭✭✭s1ippy


    AdamD wrote: »
    This is all purely anecdotal though.....

    I know 1 person total who has it, nobody else who has even had symptons out of my friends/family. Just as meaningless as judging it from 1 road in the country. Also keeping in mind how low the positive test rates are - the vast majority of people who think they have it, actually don't.
    Your experience is just as valid. I just think my road is a stark reminder what can happen when you or those you interact with have no respect for the measures.
    Mwengwe wrote: »
    Haha I wish i was in denial, I'm very dread-riddled. Just find it amusing trying to picture this scenario where the neighbours are all shouting to eachother 'I think I've got it!' and where you seem to be tracking the movements of each house occupant. But if it is all true I'd definitely be ratting them out to the Guards at this point.
    With the good weather we've all been outside in our gardens. They are mostly family so they communicate through our hedge and over their back wall with the surrounding family members who live in six of the surrounding houses and a few more on the next road over. Our road is a cul de sac, so very easy to track movements. We can hear their comings and goings in neighbouring houses because they all have dogs that go ballistic every time anyone comes onto the road, can be heard from every room in our house.

    I wish I weren't aware of their flouting of the rules. They'll probably know if we tell the Gardaí because we're the only house on the road who don't engage with them. I'd rather be a live cúnt than a polite corpse. Although the older woman next door was taken to hospital by ambulance this morning so the relevant authorities will likely be seeing the outcome of their flaunting of the rules in coming days if they're being hospitalised now.

    My partner is on friendly terms with a couple with young kids who live at the end of the road. They are not related to the families and she texted yesterday to say that her family have a confirmed case and so does the elderly gent next door to them who also isn't a relative of the six houses.

    I really believe and hope that this scenario is not indicative of the wider population but when this sh!t started happening in Wuhan they sealed people into their homes, welding the doors shut. Yet here they're free to head to work, the shops etc and that's what they're doing, and I would argue that even a few situations like this are what's going to cause Ireland to be overcome by cases.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    I have to disagree. Per million is a meaningless comparison until the pandemic has burned itself out in all the countries being compared. It will take more time to spread through a larger population.

    Per million population is not a valid way to compare countries at this point in time, for a number of reasons.

    Different countries are using different criteria for diagnosing CiViD-19, some use differential diagnosis based on symptoms, others on diagnostic test results; some countries are only counting diagnosed hospital deaths and don't include nursing home or home deaths.

    Some countries record cause of death differently e.g. one country might record cause of death as pneumonia or heart failure with CoViD-19 secondary whereas another would record the cause of death as CoViD-19 with pneumonia or heart failure secondary.

    Less developed countries may not even have the capability to collect reliable statistics.

    Even if all countries being compared were using the same diagnostic criteria and recording cause of death in exactly the same way it still wouldn't be valid to compare per population until after the pandemic had ended in all countries being compared.

    If one person, on average infects four others, the virus will spread from 1 to 4, 16, 64, 256, 1024, 4096, etc... the same in a country of 5 million as a country of 50 million. It will take longer to spread to the same % population in a more populous country. Until the virus has spread to the majority of people in both, a per population comparison will always make the less populous country's stats appear to be worse.

    The best measure during the pandemic is the rate of spread.

    Since CoViD-19 seems to be asymptomatic or only mildly symptomatic in a significant percentage of cases even the rate of spread has to be inferred from mortality, ICU and hospital admission rates making comparisons between countries with different access to healthcare difficult.

    At the moment the best measures are the spread or replication rate and ability of a country's healthcare infrastructure to cope. On both counts we appear to be coping relatively well and heading in the right direction.


    Number of cases per Million is a very valid metrics to use for comparison with other European countries. It tells you where we stand in terms of infection
    it's not meant to make a comment about death rate or speed of infection, it's just a picture of where we are.

    Definitely we are not ready to relax the restrictions


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