Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

is_that_so

maninasia wrote: »

No they aren't going to find anyway around it if you enforce border control and quarantine.

As I said there's research on the travel question : I've linked to it.

stephenjmcd

From rte
The number of confirmed Covid-19 patients in intensive care units was down to 138 at 8pm yesterday evening. This compares with 160 one week ago.

It is the lowest number of confirmed Covid-19 patients in intensive care for two weeks.

HSE figures also show the number of confirmed Covid-19 patients being treated in hospital was 839 at 8pm on Wednesday evening, a reduction of 2.8% compared with the previous day (Tuesday).

Beaumont hospital was treating the largest number of Covid-19 patients with 111. This is followed by the Mater Hospital with 95 patients, St James Hospital with 79 and Tallaght Hospital with 77 patients.

is_that_so

This is from Henry on nursing homes testing challenge.

Chief Clinical Officer with the HSE, Dr Colm Henry said nursing homes are experiencing significant challenges because older people are presenting atypically for Covid-19.

Older people, he said, do not show some of these "cardinal signs" because their immune system is weakened due to frailty or comorbidities.

He cited the example of an older person who is "bedbound, with advanced dementia", to show how the absence of these symptoms make it significantly more difficult to detect Covid-19 in an older person.

maninasia

hmmm wrote: »

I'm confused. On the one hand (in this thread) we are told that we should have accepted what China was saying and should have immediately acted on it, and then on the other hand we should have not accepted what China said and the WHO should have investigated it (which they did).

Did you read the WHO report from their team who went to China? It was excellent, and most of what they advised has been correct. It's not their fault Trump decided that the virus was "just going to disappear" and wanted to prioritise the economy.

The WHO have been a shambles.
Not only.did they give the wrong info on human to human transmission, delay announcement of global pandemic, they STILL say wearing a mask is not helpful when even your granny or an eight year old kid could tell it will.cut down the chance of you infecting somebody else.

Complete and utter gob****es !

tobefrank321

Tony EH wrote: »

Ignore what you want. Nobody gives a shit.

But you're still talking bollocks.

The WHO hadn't any real choice but to go with what China was providing them with. If they had simply dismissed what China was saying and called them liars, it may have gone some way to pleasing little shitbags on the web who are only interested in pointing fingers, but it wouldn't have served any other purpose and we would be in a bigger mess now.

China was the patient zero of a potential global pandemic and the WHO needed access to that country to gather their own facts. Facts that were going to be vital in combatting the spread of the virus which little was known about in January or February.

Tony, your internet hardman persona is both laughable and tiresome at this stage. Throwing in four letter words impresses no-one, it actually makes your argument even harder to take seriously.

WHO didn't even need access. They were told by the Taiwanese what the situation was re person to person transmission.

Told in an email.

They ignored the Taiwanese who were telling the truth and went with the Chinese who were spouting lies.

I can do this all day, you're going to end up looking foolish though. You're just digging a deeper hole for yourself.

Want to discuss WHO advice on travel bans from Wuhan and other hotspots next? Another piece of advice from them that turned out to have disastrous consequences.

Iamabeliever

The virus was outside China before the world was even aware of it.[/quote]

Could not have said it better

hmmm

stephenjmcd wrote: »

From rte
The number of confirmed Covid-19 patients in intensive care units was down to 138 at 8pm yesterday evening. This compares with 160 one week ago.

Great news, the ICU figure is the only statistic I'd really pay attention to to tell us how good or bad the outbreak is. The death rate in particular can be heavily skewed if it unfortunately gets into a vulnerable population (e.g. nursing homes, Italy), but doesn't really tell us much about the wider outbreak.

maninasia

is_that_so wrote: »

As I said there's research on the travel question : I've linked to it.

Taiwan no new cases. None. Taiwan has 20 million people located off the coast of China.
Because they enforce strict immigration policies now and have done for two months along with quarantining all arrivals for two weeks
New Zealand...The same.

Proof is in success not in failure.

joe_99

stephenjmcd wrote: »

From rte
The number of confirmed Covid-19 patients in intensive care units was down to 138 at 8pm yesterday evening. This compares with 160 one week ago.

It is the lowest number of confirmed Covid-19 patients in intensive care for two weeks.

HSE figures also show the number of confirmed Covid-19 patients being treated in hospital was 839 at 8pm on Wednesday evening, a reduction of 2.8% compared with the previous day (Tuesday).

Great news. Very positive. Hopefully others on this thread recognise the great effort behind those low numbers. We are doing good as a nation. Let's keep it going.

smelly sock

hmmm wrote: »

Great news, the ICU figure is the only statistic I'd really pay attention to to tell us how good or bad the outbreak is. The death rate in particular can be heavily skewed if it unfortunately gets into a vulnerable population (e.g. nursing homes, Italy), but doesn't really tell us much about the wider outbreak.

Ye it's steadily dropping and we are starting to come out the other end. The "new cases" stat every evening is a red herring. we should really only be paying attention to deaths without an underlying condition and ICU stats.

Let's see where we are in terms of ICU numbers this time next week. My guess would be that we will be below 100.

Tony EH

Ficheall wrote: »

China never said they had it wholly contained, and anybody watching China in January would have seen there was a sh*tstorm on the way.

Nobody really KNEW anything for much of January.

• The Chinese only told the WHO on December 31st that there were unusual cases of "pneumonia" breaking out in Wuhan.

• In the first week of January, they ruled out SARS and announced a new virus called Covid-19.

• China announced it's first death on January 11.

• China reported it's second death on January 17

• China conforms human to human transmission on January 20

• The WHO declared the coronavirus a global emergency

Nobody really had a clue what was going to happen in January for a fact, no matter what the Capt. Hindsights might tell you.

smelly sock

maninasia wrote: »

Taiwan no new cases. None. Taiwan has 20 million people locates of the coast of China.
Because they enforce strict immigration policies now and have done for two months along with quarantining all arrivals for two weeks
New Zealand...The same.

Proof is in success not in failure.

Much like China I wouldn't believe the numbers out of Taiwan.

NZ and Australia are hard enough to get into at the best of times so this might explain NZ keeping a lid on it. We'd also need to know the amount of testing and the criteria for it though.

Loafing Oaf

is_that_so wrote: »

This is from Henry on nursing homes testing challenge.

Do they not just test everybody if they've had even one case at a particular home?

Tony EH

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Tony, your internet hardman persona is both laughable and tiresome at this stage. Throwing in four letter words impresses no-one, it actually makes your argument even harder to take seriously.

WHO didn't even need access. They were told by the Taiwanese what the situation was re person to person transmission.

Told in an email.

They ignored the Taiwanese who were telling the truth and went with the Chinese who were spouting lies.

I can do this all day, you're going to end up looking foolish though. You're just digging a deeper hole for yourself.

Want to discuss WHO advice on travel bans from Wuhan and other hotspots next? Another piece of advice from them that turned out to have disastrous consequences.

I've no interest in your bollocks talk.

tobefrank321

They likely don't send most nursing home residents to ICU. Of course your ICU numbers will be down if you don't bother treating the very sickest and dying.

ICU numbers down, deaths up. That's the story here. The two don't really don't add up.

Hard to see positives here if deaths keep rising. Maybe they could actually try and save some of the nursing home patients, and could have tried those in Port Laoise.

maninasia

Tony EH wrote: »

Nobody really KNEW anything for much of January.

• The Chinese only told the WHO on December 31st that there were unusual cases of "pneumonia" breaking out in Wuhan.

• In the first week of January, they ruled out SARS and announced a new virus called Covid-19.

• China announced it's first death on January 11.

• China reported it's second death on January 17

• China conforms human to human transmission on January 20

• The WHO declared the coronavirus a global emergency

Nobody really had a clue what was going to happen in January for a fact, no matter what the Capt. Hindsights might tell you.

They knew they suppressed the information , shutting up the doctors . Then the central government suppressed the Hubei govt from announcing it until ‚Jan 21st. They knew about it since the start of Jan that it was human to human transmission, at least .

smelly sock

tobefrank321 wrote: »

They likely don't send most nursing home residents to ICU. Of course your ICU numbers will be down if you don't bother treating the very sickest and dying.

ICU numbers down, deaths up. That's the story here. The two don't really don't add up.

Seriously? That's BS. I can guarantee you that if someone in a nursing home needs ICU admission they get it.

Tony EH

maninasia wrote: »

They knew they suppressed the information , shutting up the doctors . Then the central government suppressed the Hubei govt from announcing it until ‚Jan 21st. They knew about it since the start of Jan that it was human to human transmission, at least .

So if the WHO went around calling China liars and saying they were covering up information about the coronavirus, what good would that have done?

smelly sock

What time is Holohan on at today?

is_that_so

maninasia wrote: »

Taiwan no new cases. None. Taiwan has 20 million people located off the coast of China.
Because they enforce strict immigration policies now and have done for two months along with quarantining all arrivals for two weeks
New Zealand...The same.

Proof is in success not in failure.

Taiwan use lots of countermeasures as do NZ and other countries, measures shown to be extremely effective at a time like this. The literature suggests little to no effect from travel bans. At most they might delay it by a bit but you are free to believe what you want.

igCorcaigh

Tony EH wrote: »

Nobody really KNEW anything for much of January.

• The Chinese only told the WHO on December 31st that there were unusual cases of "pneumonia" breaking out in Wuhan.

• In the first week of January, they ruled out SARS and announced a new virus called Covid-19.

• China announced it's first death on January 11.

• China reported it's second death on January 17

• China conforms human to human transmission on January 20

• The WHO declared the coronavirus a global emergency

Nobody really had a clue what was going to happen in January for a fact, no matter what the Capt. Hindsights might tell you.

Yup.

I remember the H5N1 bird flu scare years back. There was confirmed h2h transmission in Turkey, but the transmission chains weren't sustained.

There was a bit of a media focus but no real action taken AFAIR.

And H5N1 had/has the potential to wipe out a huge part of humanity.

is_that_so

smelly sock wrote: »

What time is Holohan on at today?

See the sticky!:D

An Ciarraioch

Even with caveats, it appears hospital deaths in the UK peaked on April 8th, and have fallen since:

https://twitter.com/ian_a_jones/status/1251153457140006918

tobefrank321

Tony EH wrote: »

Nobody really KNEW anything for much of January.

• The Chinese only told the WHO on December 31st that there were unusual cases of "pneumonia" breaking out in Wuhan.

• In the first week of January, they ruled out SARS and announced a new virus called Covid-19.

• China announced it's first death on January 11.

• China reported it's second death on January 17

• China conforms human to human transmission on January 20

• The WHO declared the coronavirus a global emergency

Nobody really had a clue what was going to happen in January for a fact, no matter what the Capt. Hindsights might tell you.

Except that Taiwan sent an email to the WHO on 31st December advising them of their suspicions it was person to person transmission, a full 20 days before China declared it to be so.

https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En/Bulletin/Detail/PAD-lbwDHeN_bLa-viBOuw?typeid=158

Taiwan put in place a plan based on the presumption it was person to person transmission.

So yes, the WHO did have a clue what was likely happening. They chose to ignore the Taiwanese.

Not looking good for your Captain Hindsight assertion is it Tony?

Michael Dwyer

Tony EH wrote: »

I've no interest in your bollocks talk.

It's full on bollocks from yourself. Bollocks this, bollocks that..get that bollocks out of my face was another one.

smelly sock

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Except that Taiwan sent an email to the WHO on 31st December advising them of their suspicions it was person to person transmission, a full 20 days before China declared it to be so.

https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En/Bulletin/Detail/PAD-lbwDHeN_bLa-viBOuw?typeid=158

Taiwan put in place a plan based on the presumption it was person to person transmission.

So yes, the WHO did have a clue what was likely happening. They chose to ignore the Taiwanese.

Not looking good for your Captain Hindsight assertion is it Tony?

I'd be highly suspicious of that source.

eagle eye

smelly sock wrote:

I'd be highly suspicious of that source.

It's been reported in many places.

Tony EH

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Except that Taiwan sent an email to the WHO on 31st December advising them of their suspicions it was person to person transmission, a full 20 days before China declared it to be so.

https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En/Bulletin/Detail/PAD-lbwDHeN_bLa-viBOuw?typeid=158

Taiwan put in place a plan based on the presumption it was person to person transmission.

So yes, the WHO did have a clue what was likely happening. They chose to ignore the Taiwanese.

Not looking good for your Captain Hindsight assertion is it Tony?

So you just wanted the WHO to call the Chinese liars then because Taiwan made a presumption.

Kermit.de.frog

Rock and a hard place for the WHO.

They need China's co operation probably more than any other country given risks and passed epidemics.

tobefrank321

smelly sock wrote: »

I'd be highly suspicious of that source.

The Taiwanese implemented a plan on 31st December on the basis this was person to person virus. That can't really be argued with.

joe_99

smelly sock wrote: »

Seriously? That's BS. I can guarantee you that if someone in a nursing home needs ICU admission they get it.

This times 100.

hmmm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Rock and a hard place for the WHO.

They need China's co operation probably more than any other country given risks and passed epidemics.

And apparently every time there is a Twitter post, or some other warning, the WHO are required to immediately treat it as fact according to some on here. It's all very confusing.

The WHO were aware in January that the virus was spreading, but did not know the facts. They had to work with China to get access to the country, and when they did they sent an expert team. That team reported very quickly and advised the world to prepare. I'm not sure what else they could be expected to do.

The only reason there is a controversy over WHO is that Trump did nothing with the information, hoping this would good away, and is now desperate for a scapegoat.

joe_99

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Of course your ICU numbers will be down if you don't bother treating the very sick and dying

Possibly the worst and most dangerous statement on Boards today.

tobefrank321

Tony EH wrote: »

So you just wanted the WHO to call the Chinese liars then because Taiwan made a presumption.

Nope.

They were given two sources, one Taiwanese, the other Chinese.

They could have said something like, "We believe this may be a SARS like outbreak and countries should be vigilant and implement plans on that basis". Instead they said we believe there is no person to person transmission.

You'd have to assume if a number of people come down with pneumonia like symptoms in a locality in China, that a SARS like outbreak is a strong probability.

I'm going to give it a rest now Tony, for your sake and mine. My view is the WHO were negligent at best and puppets of the Chinese at worst.

tobefrank321

smelly sock wrote: »

Seriously? That's BS. I can guarantee you that if someone in a nursing home needs ICU admission they get it.

OK so, how many of those who died in the Port Laoise home went to ICU?

tobefrank321

hmmm wrote: »

And apparently every time there is a Twitter post, or some other warning, the WHO are required to immediately treat it as fact according to some on here. It's all very confusing.

The WHO were aware in January that the virus was spreading, but did not know the facts. They had to work with China to get access to the country, and when they did they sent an expert team. That team reported very quickly and advised the world to prepare. I'm not sure what else they could be expected to do.

The only reason there is a controversy over WHO is that Trump did nothing with the information, hoping this would good away, and is now desperate for a scapegoat.

An email warning about a SARS outbreak from the Taiwanese CDC would carry more weight than a twitter post in fairness.

gmisk

s1ippy wrote: »

I can only speak to my own experience but I have exercised an ABUNDANCE of caution. I was absent from my teaching job the week before school was shut down because I have asthma. This turned out to be the correct decision days after the school closed, as a parent whose child socialises with children in my class put on her Instagram that she was awaiting test results. Turned out to be positive and a week and a half after the schools shut, so my SNAs and the parents of children in my class were dealing with their special needs children having brought coronavirus into their homes. I felt incredibly guilty that I had protected myself and not warned them, but how could I really have been sure? I would have sounded "hysterical".

Now my work as a carer is only with one client because one died and I changed my schedule weeks ago. I'm their only help and none of the leave the house. I do shopping for them, I've been doing click and collect which is very nerve-wracking having to go into the shop... but they've freed up slots for carers and the elderly, so I do their shopping with the bits I get for my parents and I have a delivery on Tuesday which should cover three weeks, keeping some in sealed containers in our fridge until the following week which saves me having to do it weekly. I also bought a tonne of my own PPE so I'm using that as we're not allowed to use the agency's stuff when cleaning people's houses or feeding them, only for intimate personal care. Crazy.

The reason it looks like community transmission is dropping off is because we are not testing in the community.

I said it last night and I'll say it again, nine of the ten houses on my road have this infection, a total of around 30 people. The two of us living here are the only ones who aren't sick. Only five of these have a confirmed case. This morning as I was watering the plants, I heard choking from the elderly woman next door, who then collapsed in her garden. Her son rang the ambulance. Note that the son that called for the ambulance was in the house, but he isn't a member of her household. She lives with the youngest son and the daughter who is an air hostess who is a confirmed case. The air hostess is not self isolating and regularly goes out, the younger son (around 19) is also not at home this morning for some unknown reason.

My brother is a contact tracer. He says the scope of who they regard as close contacts is staggeringly limited. Remember the week of our first case, the woman who went from Dublin to Northern Ireland? Nobody who was actually proximal to her on her trip would have been flagged or called, they're not going checking security footage and tracing to discover people's identities. They might have called the bus company but it's up to them then to take further action and they might not.

The brother says he's literally just following a simple script with the confirmed infected person if they're conscious, "were you chatting with anyone during the week? Do you think you might have been closer to them than 2m?" not feckin CSI like some people think, they don't have the personnel or systems or efficiency within our system to actually do their due diligence.

My view is that the figures are not stable. We have suppressed the peak, but we're not by any stretch of the imagination over the hill. In a week from now, we'll start seeing the consequences of people going away for the Easter holidays and the numbers will be much less manageable.

Get comfortable anyway because there's absolutely no way things are going to be lifted in May.

Thanks for posting.

That air hostess needs to be locked up...how selfish....her own mother collapsing might wise her up a bit!

is_that_so

tobefrank321 wrote: »

OK so, how many of those who died in the Port Laoise home went to ICU?

Likely none, based on the answer Henry gave last night, but the consultants went to them to administer care.

joe_99

tobefrank321 wrote: »

OK so, how many of those who died in the Port Laoise home went to ICU?

Do some research on ICU before posting. Your ignorance is breathtaking.

Tony EH

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Nope.

They were given two sources, one Taiwanese, the other Chinese.

They could have said something like, "We believe this may be a SARS like outbreak and countries should be vigilant and implement plans on that basis". Instead they said we believe there is no person to person transmission.

You'd have to assume if a number of people come down with pneumonia like symptoms in a locality in China, that a SARS like outbreak is a strong probability.

I'm going to give it a rest now Tony, for your sake and mine. My view is the WHO were negligent at best and puppets of the Chinese at worst.

You're a liar.

This is the tweet the WHO passed on in January.






They were only saying that the Chinese had found no clear evidence of human to human contact. They mention nothing of their own data on the matter, because they had no clear data.

keynes

Tony EH wrote: »

They just passed on the information they had at the time.

The fact of the matter is the that WHO had nothing else more solid to go on at the time

By this logic, they should have reported that North Korea was "totally free" of the virus.



In any case, the WHO seemed very willing to pass on Chinese "information", but oddly enough, where highly conservative when coming to their "pandemic" assessment. So they are unthinking when it comes to Chinese info, but blind when it comes to calling out what's unraveling before their eyes. You'd almost thing they were stooges for the Chinese!

keynes

Tony EH wrote: »

You're a liar.

This is the tweet the WHO passed on in January.






They were only saying that the Chinese had found no clear evidence of human to human contact. They mention nothing of their own data on the matter, because they had no clear data.

We're now playing semantics! In any case, they lent their imprimatur to this and implicitly agreed with it. How naive are you?

Ficheall

Tony EH wrote: »

Nobody really had a clue what was going to happen in January for a fact, no matter what the Capt. Hindsights might tell you.

Right, they didn't know for a fact. So they should have admitted that and taken some precautions, or perhaps encouraged gov'ts to make their own decisions.
Not all those who were less blinded than you are Captain Hindsights.

Strazdas

keynes wrote: »

By this logic, they should have reported that North Korea was "totally free" of the virus.



In any case, the WHO seemed very willing to pass on Chinese "information", but oddly enough, where highly conservative when coming to their "pandemic" assessment. So they are unthinking when it comes to Chinese info, but blind when it comes to calling out what's unraveling before their eyes. You'd almost thing they were stooges for the Chinese!

I would say they were well aware they were dealing with a dictatorship and a dodgy outfit but couldn't say anything about it publicly.

If they'd done anything the alt right keyboard warriors are suggesting now, they would have been kicked out of China immediately.

Kermit.de.frog

Tony EH wrote: »

You're a liar.

This is the tweet the WHO passed on in January.






They were only saying that the Chinese had found no clear evidence of human to human contact. They mention nothing of their own data on the matter, because they had no clear data.

Like all these organisations they are not some mystical all knowing, all seeing overlords.

They depend on member countries to report accurately. Countries can not be forced to do this. There is no way to enforce.

I'm confused as to what some, like Trump, thought they were suppose to or able to do?

Tony EH

Ficheall wrote: »

Right, they didn't know for a fact. So they should have admitted that and taken some precautions, or perhaps encouraged gov'ts to make their own decisions.
Not all those who were less blinded than you are Captain Hindsights.

LOL, Shudda, wudda, cudda. :rolleyes:

What a pity all you heroes weren't around to tell the WHO what to do.

Rob A. Bank

hmmm wrote: »

The only reason there is a controversy over WHO is that Trump did nothing with the information, hoping this would good away, and is now desperate for a scapegoat.

W.H.O., Now Trump’s Scapegoat, Warned About Coronavirus Early and Often

The W.H.O. were informed about a cluster of viral pneumonias in a Wohan hospital on December 31st 2019.

It was probably one among the 300 alerts they get every day on average.

They sifted through the alerts and realized that this one was very important.

They contacted the CDC (USA) on the 3rd of January by phone and issued an epidemic alert to all countries on 5th of January.

Dr Mike Ryan said in answer to a question on this matter the other day :-

"And, if I may just add in terms of official information to our member states: On January the 5th, WHO published an alert to all our member states on the epidemic platform that we have. And on the same day published the public information on that on January the 5th.

And very prudently on January the 7th, the CDC (USA) established its incident management system in response to that, and subsequently put out a health advisory I think to all frontline public health and health staff in the US, which again like Maria said, detailed the procedures for investigating cases, including droplets spread precautions, and the mechanisms for investigating and asking all physicians and frontline public health workers to report any cases meeting the preliminary case definition.

So from that perspective, the information was shared and very appropriate actions were taken in the United States in response to that alert."

See WHO transcript:- HERE

Even The New York Times had the story on the 6th of January.

So the USA were informed about the start of this epidemic by W.H.O at the beginning of January. Trump did nothing for 70 days except deny, blather and spout rubbish, leaving the United States totally unprepared for the carnage that was to come.

The Trump charge that the World Health Organization delayed reporting this epidemic is total f*cking bulls*hit, just like the majority of toxic sewage that emanates from his mouth.

Mental Mickey

What a d!ckhead

bettyoleary

joe_99 wrote: »

Do some research on ICU before posting. Your ignorance is breathtaking.

Good job this gentleman wasn't in that home isn't it on Sat. Captain Tom raised nearly 2mill for NHS and he will be 100 on 30th April. Has underlying conditions.

maddog

The WHO changed the terms of how they announced a global pandemic 1 month before they declared a global pandemic, funny no?