Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

MipMap

MipMap wrote: »

Excellent answer. I knew that. Wondered if anyone else did.


Like they used to say,


All that comes before the word "but" is BS

I thought that was just for apologies.

fritzelly

MipMap wrote: »

Excellent answer. I knew that. Wondered if anyone else did.


Like they used to say,


All that comes before the word "but" is BS

Unless you're Trump in which case god knows how his brain works but he is never short of a word - he didn't kiss the blarney stone, he bought it

briancoolcat

Blueshoe wrote: »

China are definitely coming for that position. Trumps trade war was only the beginning of worsening relations between the two.

I have said it here before, we are such a tiny country we do not matter a jot in the global battle against covid or any major world event. If things go tits up between the US and China which is quite possibly with Trump at the helm we can only look on in despair. Despite some of the petty arguments that go on here I think we are doing a good job. Yeah we could have done better in certain areas but hindsight is great. This is a once in a lifetime event and we as Irish people will get through with kindness, stoicism, and good old Irish humour. Keep the faith and the fingers crossed that the Don doesn't do something really stupid.

JP Liz V1

I feel for anyone with family and friends in nursing homes or residential care centres, it must so stressful not seeing them or even knowing if they are ok and then hearing of the horrific clusters of cases and deaths in the news, it is so sad

Blueshoe

briancoolcat wrote: »

I have said it here before, we are such a tiny country we do not matter a jot in the global battle against covid or any major world event. If things go tits up between the US and China which is quite possibly with Trump at the helm we can only look on in despair. Despite some of the petty arguments that go on here I think we are doing a good job. Yeah we could have done better in certain areas but hindsight is great. This is a once in a lifetime event and we as Irish people will get through with kindness, stoicism, and good old Irish humour. Keep the faith and the fingers crossed that the Don doesn't do something really stupid.

I wouldn't worry. I'm looking forward to when this is over and we can get back to not having a government and Brexit

JP Liz V1

Blueshoe wrote: »

But who will replace him. Biden is a pretty crappy alternative

If only NY Cuomo was in the running

fritzelly

Blueshoe wrote: »

I wouldn't worry. I'm looking forward to when this is over and we can get back to not having a government and Brexit

Has Brexit been suspended or delayed or anything on the back of this?

Blueshoe

fritzelly wrote: »

Has Brexit been suspended or delayed or anything on the back of this?

I'm not sure . I don't think so . Did I read somewhere that there are 3 weeks of talks coming up

Blueshoe

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

If only NY Cuomo was in the running

Did he run at all?

spookwoman

Blueshoe wrote: »

Did he run at all?

He said he wouldn't run

patnor1011

Here is what the Executive Director at the WHO Health Emergencies Program, Dr. Michael Ryan, said during an interview:

“In most parts of the world, due to lockdown, most of the transmission that’s actually happening in many countries now is happening in the household, at family level. In some senses, transmission has been taken off the streets and pushed back into family units. Now we need to go and look in families and find those people who may be sick and remove them, and isolate them, in a safe and dignified manner.”

Well that escalated quickly. Now we are talking about raiding homes and seizing family members who are sick.
Where is the limit on government powers during an emergency?

MipMap

patnor1011 wrote: »

Here is what the Executive Director at the WHO Health Emergencies Program, Dr. Michael Ryan, said during an interview:

“In most parts of the world, due to lockdown, most of the transmission that’s actually happening in many countries now is happening in the household, at family level. In some senses, transmission has been taken off the streets and pushed back into family units. Now we need to go and look in families and find those people who may be sick and remove them, and isolate them, in a safe and dignified manner.”

Well that escalated quickly. Now we are talking about raiding homes and seizing family members who are sick.
Where is the limit on government powers during an emergency?

Kinda like painting a cross on their door.
Like they did in the middle ages.

jimmycrackcorm

patnor1011 wrote: »

Here is what the Executive Director at the WHO Health Emergencies Program, Dr. Michael Ryan, said during an interview:

“In most parts of the world, due to lockdown, most of the transmission that’s actually happening in many countries now is happening in the household, at family level. In some senses, transmission has been taken off the streets and pushed back into family units. Now we need to go and look in families and find those people who may be sick and remove them, and isolate them, in a safe and dignified manner.”

Well that escalated quickly. Now we are talking about raiding homes and seizing family members who are sick.
Where is the limit on government powers during an emergency?

There have ben incredible numbers of deaths in Italian homes where it is normal for multi-generational family members to live together. Maybe you're ok if your grandparents living in your home are going to die because you might bring back the disease but it doesn't need to be a government rule for it to make sense to protect people in the home from that.

fritzelly

patnor1011 wrote: »

Here is what the Executive Director at the WHO Health Emergencies Program, Dr. Michael Ryan, said during an interview:

“In most parts of the world, due to lockdown, most of the transmission that’s actually happening in many countries now is happening in the household, at family level. In some senses, transmission has been taken off the streets and pushed back into family units. Now we need to go and look in families and find those people who may be sick and remove them, and isolate them, in a safe and dignified manner.”

Well that escalated quickly. Now we are talking about raiding homes and seizing family members who are sick.
Where is the limit on government powers during an emergency?

No it wasn't Dr Ryan saying that

And you omitted the earlier part of it

. Ideally that quarantine should occur in a place other
than the home and for this reason, one, because if that person gets sick they may already have infected their family.
But that's not always possible so at least quarantining contacts at home with good health advice about not transmitting disease if they become sick and with regular monitoring of that individual is an option for countries
It is difficult to deal with that, so home quarantine of contacts is acceptable with appropriate
information, education and more importantly a very rapid system of getting those people out
of their homes if they become sick

MipMap

SO...

We all know that we live in a society wher the majority of people follow the rules and behave in a responsible manner.
However, we also have members of our society who engage in certain practices such as:


Igniting Wheelie Bins
Demolising Lidl Stores
Hacking ATMs from Banks
Spitting at Gardai


When these people get infected do we honestly think we can trust them to self isolate, Contact trace etc.,?

wakka12

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/mumbais-public-hospitals-run-icu-beds-coronavirus-spreads/

ICU beds in Mumbai have ran out, they have just 200 for a population of 22 million

wakka12

WHO says coronavirus can be contained in Africa

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/africa/coronavirus-africa-can-still-contain-covid-19-outbreak-says-who

BUt despite that, 300,000 Africans are expected to die in the next 6 months from coronavirus
A scenario where interventions to stop the virus are not put in place, 3.3 million africans are thought to die before the end of 2020

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/africa/at-least-300000-africans-expected-to-die-in-coronavirus-pandemic-un-agency

fritzelly

wakka12 wrote: »

WHO says coronavirus can be contained in Africa

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/africa/coronavirus-africa-can-still-contain-covid-19-outbreak-says-who

BUt despite that, 300,000 Africans are expected to die in the next 6 months from coronavirus
A scenario where interventions to stop the virus are not put in place, 3.3 million africans are thought to die before the end of 2020

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/africa/at-least-300000-africans-expected-to-die-in-coronavirus-pandemic-un-agency

WHO to believe?

Didn't jump in to help Italy or Spain or anywhere else for that fact - even their "coronavirus update" briefings were all precursored with what an amazing job we are doing in Africa stopping ebola
I'm half of the mind that ebola patient they rescued was nothing more than a photo op

300,000 is 0.025% of Africans. Italy is currently at 0.038% for deaths.

Not sure why anyone would band all of Africa together except to make scary numbers.

ShineOn7

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Virus was in Europe, and in the States even before they detected it in Wuhan. There was most likely a 3 week window of free movement into Europe and States before people started to get sick in Wuhan.
And there were reports in countries of an increase in respiratory illness, but they never knew it was something new.

fritzelly

Deleted User wrote: »

300,000 is 0.025% of Africans. Italy is currently at 0.038% for deaths.

Not sure why anyone would band all of Africa together except to make scary numbers.

Where are you getting 0.038% for Italy - even flu has a worse CFR than that yet doesn't fill the hospitals

spookwoman

fritzelly wrote: »

Where are you getting 0.038% for Italy - even flu has a worse CFR than that yet doesn't fill the hospitals

the 0.038% is probably % of population, if using 2018 population number would be about 0.037%

owlbethere

patnor1011 wrote: »

Here is what the Executive Director at the WHO Health Emergencies Program, Dr. Michael Ryan, said during an interview:

“In most parts of the world, due to lockdown, most of the transmission that’s actually happening in many countries now is happening in the household, at family level. In some senses, transmission has been taken off the streets and pushed back into family units. Now we need to go and look in families and find those people who may be sick and remove them, and isolate them, in a safe and dignified manner.”

Well that escalated quickly. Now we are talking about raiding homes and seizing family members who are sick.
Where is the limit on government powers during an emergency?

The same thing happened during TB. People were taken away to isolation hospitals. It wouldn't be any harm if Ireland went down this route of isolation centres with this.

https://www.boston25news.com/news/cdc-reviewing-stunning-universal-testing-results-boston-homeless-shelter/Z253TFBO6RG4HCUAARBO4YWO64/

"The broad-scale testing took place at the shelter in Boston’s South End a week and a half ago because of a small cluster of cases there.

Of the 397 people tested, 146 people tested positive. Not a single one had any symptoms."

"The 146 people who tested positive were immediately moved to two different temporary isolation facilities in Boston. According to O’Connell, only one of those patients needed hospital care, and many continue to show no symptoms."


Good news if true and no more end up in hospital.

Quantum Erasure

Deleted User wrote: »

300,000 is 0.025% of Africans. Italy is currently at 0.038% for deaths.

Not sure why anyone would band all of Africa together except to make scary numbers.

Just from looking at worldometers, it seems to be taking off in sub Saharan africa, countries with low numbers of cases, but big percentage increases. (although in some, numbers aren't reported every day, making the jump seem large)

owlbethere

Deleted User wrote: »

https://www.boston25news.com/news/cdc-reviewing-stunning-universal-testing-results-boston-homeless-shelter/Z253TFBO6RG4HCUAARBO4YWO64/

"The broad-scale testing took place at the shelter in Boston’s South End a week and a half ago because of a small cluster of cases there.

Of the 397 people tested, 146 people tested positive. Not a single one had any symptoms."


If those results are right, it's the best news of the week.

Surely the best way forward here is to send them to the hospital for testing to double check on a covid19 infection. Just in case the tests are faulty.

Or here in Ireland, to do some random testing of the population and see what the results show.

owlbethere

owlbethere wrote: »

Surely the best way forward here is to send them to the hospital for testing to double check on a covid19 infection. Just in case the tests are faulty.

Or here in Ireland, to do some random testing of the population and see what the results show.

If antibody testing is close, I'd rather wait and test people for active infection and also whether or not they've had it before.

Danzy

wakka12 wrote: »

WHO says coronavirus can be contained in Africa

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/africa/coronavirus-africa-can-still-contain-covid-19-outbreak-says-who

BUt despite that, 300,000 Africans are expected to die in the next 6 months from coronavirus
A scenario where interventions to stop the virus are not put in place, 3.3 million africans are thought to die before the end of 2020

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/africa/at-least-300000-africans-expected-to-die-in-coronavirus-pandemic-un-agency

300k dead in 6 months is an incredibly small figure out of 1.3bn people, where Aids is highly existent, never mind TB, multiple other conditions, poverty, mass slums etc.

The 3.3 mn figure isn't far off the same consideration.

Not to be flippant.

Three months today since I've worked.. Saturday 18th January was my first day off for lunar new year and we never went back.

Voltex

owlbethere wrote: »

Surely the best way forward here is to send them to the hospital for testing to double check on a covid19 infection. Just in case the tests are faulty.

Or here in Ireland, to do some random testing of the population and see what the results show.

Another piece from Stanford. Roughly 2-4% of the popukation has been exposed.
And surely a lot higher again in hotspots like NY. But if true, it puts US infections into the tens of millions. This is also consistent with Dutch, Danish and Wuhan early serology testing.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1

munsterlegend

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Three months today since I've worked.. Saturday 18th January was my first day off for lunar new year and we never went back.

Are you in China?

amadangomor

owlbethere wrote: »

The same thing happened during TB. People were taken away to isolation hospitals. It wouldn't be any harm if Ireland went down this route of isolation centres with this.

South Korea do it and they are the example everyone uses of how to successfully handle Covid-19.

They will keep people an isolation centre until they get the test result. Negative- go home. Positive - stay for 2 weeks

munsterlegend

munsterlegend wrote: »

Are you in China?

Vietnam.

NaiveMelodies

wakka12 wrote: »

WHO says coronavirus can be contained in Africa

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/africa/coronavirus-africa-can-still-contain-covid-19-outbreak-says-who

BUt despite that, 300,000 Africans are expected to die in the next 6 months from coronavirus
A scenario where interventions to stop the virus are not put in place, 3.3 million africans are thought to die before the end of 2020

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/africa/at-least-300000-africans-expected-to-die-in-coronavirus-pandemic-un-agency

If, for example, developed countries cannot source the required quantities of PPE equipment then Africa has no chance of containing this.

coastwatch

Voltex wrote: »

Another piece from Stanford. Roughly 2-4% of the popukation has been exposed.
And surely a lot higher again in hotspots like NY. But if true, it puts US infections into the tens of millions. This is also consistent with Dutch, Danish and Wuhan early serology testing.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1

According to some of the comments, the sample population may not be random, because of how they were recruited.

Typical comment,

Daniel Shanklin
10 hours ago
This study abstract should be rewritten as follow: "A study of Facebook users who thought they might have COVID-19 resulted in a roughly 2.49% to 4.16% positive-test rate"

The fact that you've extrapolated this to an entire population is confounding.

caveat emptor

owlbethere wrote: »

Surely the best way forward here is to send them to the hospital for testing to double check on a covid19 infection. Just in case the tests are faulty.

Or here in Ireland, to do some random testing of the population and see what the results show.

We do tv ratings with a tiny sample size to work out how many people are watching what? I.e less than 500. Is there any value in doing something similar To see general level of transmission in the community.

Will never be 100% accurate but could be controlled and within a certain tolerance. The distribution on a per county basis doesn’t vary massively (apart Dublin and Cavan.)

giveitholly

Maybe this has been answered before but I will ask anyway,just say someone is very close to death or is very sick and they contract covid-19,This person then passes away.Is this death recorded as been from Covid even though the person could of died naturally or from say cancer if the person had that disease.Suppose what I am asking is can someone die from other causes if they only have a mild case of covid-19 and the death is still contributed to convid-19?

Voltex

coastwatch wrote: »

According to some of the comments, the sample population may not be random, because of how they were recruited.

Typical comment,

Daniel Shanklin
10 hours ago
This study abstract should be rewritten as follow: "A study of Facebook users who thought they might have COVID-19 resulted in a roughly 2.49% to 4.16% positive-test rate"

The fact that you've extrapolated this to an entire population is confounding.

These are senior researchers from Stanford Medical school and University of Southern California - Id suspect their methodology would encompass a high level of rigour, and as they say in the paper, they've controlled for zip code, gender and age.

A quick review on Google Scholar of lead author Eran Bendavid has been cited over 4k times - so hardly a novice.

wakka12

Voltex wrote: »

These are senior researchers from Stanford Medical school and University of Southern California - Id suspect their methodology would encompass a high level of rigour, and as they say in the paper, they've controlled for zip code, gender and age.

A quick review on Google Scholar of lead author Eran Bendavid has been cited over 4k times - so hardly a novice.

It's not to say the researchers aren't smart or experienced, but the candidates were self volunteered and of course will be highly skewed towards those who exhibited symptoms and believe they had covid already , it certainly cannot be extrapolated to an entire country's population, the researchers even say that. It is not a random community testing at all really

Hooked

giveitholly wrote: »

Maybe this has been answered before but I will ask anyway,just say someone is very close to death or is very sick and they contract covid-19,This person then passes away.Is this death recorded as been from Covid even though the person could of died naturally or from say cancer if the person had that disease.Suppose what I am asking is can someone die from other causes if they only have a mild case of covid-19 and the death is still contributed to convid-19?

From what I’m reading... some countries are doing the former. most are adopting the latter (I.e. a covid-19 death WITH underlying conditions)

The straw that broke the camels back.

wakka12

giveitholly wrote: »

Maybe this has been answered before but I will ask anyway,just say someone is very close to death or is very sick and they contract covid-19,This person then passes away.Is this death recorded as been from Covid even though the person could of died naturally or from say cancer if the person had that disease.Suppose what I am asking is can someone die from other causes if they only have a mild case of covid-19 and the death is still contributed to convid-19?

Covid will be listed as one of a number of contributing causes of death in that case

giveitholly

wakka12 wrote: »

Covid will be listed as one of a number of contributing causes of death in that case

Will there be any post mortem carried out to determine exact cause of death? If not then how can the true figure of deaths due to covid be accurate?

giveitholly

giveitholly wrote: »

Will there be any post mortem carried out to determine exact cause of death? If not then how can the true figure of deaths due to covid be accurate?

Does it matter? There isn't some global law saying we need to know the exact number of deaths. Some deviation in the numbers isn't going to kill or save anybody.

joe_99

giveitholly wrote: »

Maybe this has been answered before but I will ask anyway,just say someone is very close to death or is very sick and they contract covid-19,This person then passes away.Is this death recorded as been from Covid even though the person could of died naturally or from say cancer if the person had that disease.Suppose what I am asking is can someone die from other causes if they only have a mild case of covid-19 and the death is still contributed to convid-19?

In Ireland if you have tested positive for covid it is recorded as a Covid death regardless of how you die. For example if I test positive for covid and then fall down the stairs and die it will be a covid death.

giveitholly

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Does it matter? There isn't some global law saying we need to know the exact number of deaths. Some deviation in the numbers isn't going to kill or save anybody.

Well it would be interesting to know how many people actually died from covid,now I know this isn't possible reading the posts above

Gynoid

joe_99 wrote: »

In Ireland if you have tested positive for covid it is recorded as a Covid death regardless of how you die. For example if I test positive for covid and then fall down the stairs and die it will be a covid death.

Source?

giveitholly

joe_99 wrote: »

In Ireland if you have tested positive for covid it is recorded as a Covid death regardless of how you die. For example if I test positive for covid and then fall down the stairs and die it will be a covid death.

Ok thanks for that,that doesn't make sense imo,a true reflection of how many are dying from Covid will never be established if every death is put down to covid even though the person might not of died from it

Widdensushi

joe_99 wrote: »

In Ireland if you have tested positive for covid it is recorded as a Covid death regardless of how you die. For example if I test positive for covid and then fall down the stairs and die it will be a covid death.

that would be underlying conditions

Gynoid

giveitholly wrote: »

Ok thanks for that,that doesn't make sense imo,a true reflection of how many are dying from Covid will never be established if every death is put down to covid even though the person might not of died from it

Maybe that poster is not as omniscient as they claim to be? Just maybe...

billyhead

When do you think we would be able to visit elderly parents again. Both of mine live beyond the 2km limit from me and don't use Skype or any of that modern technology so we can only communicate by phone. I haven't seen them in person now since this kicked off a few weeks ago and we both miss the weekly meet up every Sunday. I am not at a risk of contracting the birud because I am working remotely and live on my own. It's horrible I can't see them. If a vaccine isn't available for 12-18 months does this mean I would be safe for their sake to wait until then. That's a horrible thought.