Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

giveitholly

giveitholly wrote: »

Well it would be interesting to know how many people actually died from covid,now I know this isn't possible reading the posts above

There will be an estimate made in a couple of years. It's impossible to know the exact number, but it is possible to look at all deaths and compare to previous years etc.

Widdensushi

billyhead wrote: »

When do you think we would be able to visit elderly parents again. Both of mine live beyond the 2km limit from me and don't use Skype or any of that modern technology so we can only communicate by phone. I haven't seen them in person now since this kicked off a few weeks ago and we both miss the weekly meet up every Sunday. I am not at a risk of contracting the birud because I am working remotely and live on my own. It's horrible I can't see them. If a vaccine isn't available for 12-18 months does this mean I would be safe for their sake to wait until then. That's a horrible thought.

call and social distance outside when the travel ban is over is probably as good as it gets for at least a year

Professor Moriarty

billyhead wrote: »

When do you think we would be able to visit elderly parents again. Both of mine live beyond the 2km limit from me and don't use Skype or any of that modern technology so we can only communicate by phone. I haven't seen them in person now since this kicked off a few weeks ago and we both miss the weekly meet up every Sunday. I am not at a risk of contracting the birud because I am working remotely and live on my own. It's horrible I can't see them. If a vaccine isn't available for 12-18 months does this mean I would be safe for their sake to wait until then. That's a horrible thought.

Maybe a case for a visit could be made on compassionate grounds.

Widdensushi

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Maybe a case for a visit could be made on compassionate grounds.

permission to visit doesn't mean it's a good idea, you would be risking their lives

Professor Moriarty

Widdensushi wrote: »

permission to visit doesn't mean it's a good idea, you would be risking their lives

Not if they sit 3m apart out in the garden for a chat.

Turtwig

joe_99 wrote: »

In Ireland if you have tested positive for covid it is recorded as a Covid death regardless of how you die. For example if I test positive for covid and then fall down the stairs and die it will be a covid death.

Load of rubbish. This simply isn't true. We don't count covid positive individuals who died in car crashes as covid deaths. There has to be a reasonable probability that the individual would be alive and breathing if not for the presence of covid. Person fell down stairs due to extreme breathing difficulties as a result of covid complications for example.

Boggles

billyhead wrote: »

When do you think we would be able to visit elderly parents again. Both of mine live beyond the 2km limit from me and don't use Skype or any of that modern technology so we can only communicate by phone. I haven't seen them in person now since this kicked off a few weeks ago and we both miss the weekly meet up every Sunday. I am not at a risk of contracting the birud because I am working remotely and live on my own. It's horrible I can't see them. If a vaccine isn't available for 12-18 months does this mean I would be safe for their sake to wait until then. That's a horrible thought.

Ah. IF they are cocooning, You are supposed to be bringing them food and essentials.

Dropping and going, 5 minute chat from 6 meters away is grand.

is_that_so

Looks like Singapore has gone from being close to top of the class to having a problem, possibly of their own making.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/singapores-cramped-migrant-worker-dorms-hide-covid-19-surge-risk

joe_99

Turtwig wrote: »

Load of rubbish. This simply isn't true. We don't count covid positive individuals who died in car crashes as covid deaths. There has to be a reasonable probability that the individual would be alive and breathing if not for the presence of covid. Person fell down stairs due to extreme breathing difficulties as a result of covid complications for example.

Dr. Holohan has stated a number of times if covid is listed on death certificate it is counted. Including as an underlying condition.

DevilsHaircut

'...44 people diagnosed with COVID-19 in Ireland have died, bringing the total to 530 deaths...'

https://www.gov.ie/en/news/7e0924-latest-updates-on-covid-19-coronavirus/

zerosugarbuzz

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Maybe a case for a visit could be made on compassionate grounds.

Or delivering food

joe_99

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

'...44 people diagnosed with COVID-19 in Ireland have died, bringing the total to 530 deaths...'

https://www.gov.ie/en/news/7e0924-latest-updates-on-covid-19-coronavirus/

Thanks

eagle eye

DevilsHaircut wrote:

'...44 people diagnosed with COVID-19 in Ireland have died, bringing the total to 530 deaths...'

Thanks s yesterday's news.

Widdensushi

eagle eye wrote: »

Thanks s yesterday's news.

it's the wording, it doesn't say they died from covid

Beasty

Deleted User wrote: »

Vietnam.

According to Worldometers Vietnam seems to be doing incredibly well. 268 cases and no deaths

Do you think that is reflective of what;s been going on there? Have they had a strict lockdown?

joe_99

Widdensushi wrote: »

it's the wording, it doesn't say they died from covid

Correct but it is counted in our numbers.

Beasty

joe_99 wrote: »

Dr. Holohan has stated a number of times if covid is listed on death certificate it is counted. Including as an underlying condition.

Has he?

He has stated a number of times they only include people who have tested positive in the figures. I have little doubt some death certs will mention it where no test was done

Snow Garden

I saw a graph on news showing Covid19 deaths by day of occurrence. Has anyone a link to that? It showed the most confirmed Covid19 deaths happened on 7th April.

silverharp

Beasty wrote: »

According to Worldometers Vietnam seems to be doing incredibly well. 268 cases and no deaths

Do you think that is reflective of what;s been going on there? Have they had a strict lockdown?

has any tropical country had a major outbreak? Plenty of Vit D and secondly high UV levels which is natures disinfectant.

Duke of Url

Snow Garden wrote: »

I saw a graph on news showing Covid19 deaths by day of occurrence. Has anyone a link to that? It showed the most confirmed Covid19 deaths happened on 7th April.

I thought there was 36 deaths listed on April 7th?

April 7
36 deaths and 345 new cases confirmed

The Health Protection Surveillance Centre has today been informed that 36 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 in Ireland have died:

27 deaths located in the east, 6 in the north west, 3 in the south
the patients included 17 females and 19 males
24 (66.6%) patients were reported as having underlying health conditions
the median age of today’s reported deaths is 81
There have now been 210 COVID-19 related deaths in Ireland. The median age of deaths in Ireland is 81. The mean age of deaths in Ireland is 79.

The Health Protection Surveillance Centre has been informed of 345 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Ireland, as at 1pm, Tuesday 7 April.

There are now 5,709 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Ireland.

gazzer

Snow Garden wrote: »

I saw a graph on news showing Covid19 deaths by day of occurrence. Has anyone a link to that? It showed the most confirmed Covid19 deaths happened on 7th April.

Here you go. I didn't realise the daily figures of those who died could include people who died on previous days. Around half of the deaths announced yesterday were only for yesterday

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0418/1132271-deaths-covid-holohan/

is_that_so

Beasty wrote: »

Has he?

He has stated a number of times they only include people who have tested positive in the figures. I have little doubt some death certs will mention it where no test was done

That position on the death cert was my understanding all along and he has stated that. From personal experience, known conditions or conditions already being treated will be registered on the certificate. Any variation I'd put down to all the dumb questions he has had to answer.

Iamabeliever

silverharp wrote: »

has any tropical country had a major outbreak? Plenty of Vit D and secondly high UV levels which is natures disinfectant.

Also 14 day quarantine for new arrivals, shut schools, suspended in coming flights etc. Vietnam acted aggressively but most important - early

joe_99

Beasty wrote: »

Has he?

He has stated a number of times they only include people who have tested positive in the figures. I have little doubt some death certs will mention it where no test was done

Devilshaircut post explains it better than I have

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

'...44 people diagnosed with COVID-19 in Ireland have died, bringing the total to 530 deaths...'

https://www.gov.ie/en/news/7e0924-latest-updates-on-covid-19-coronavirus/

Beasty

Snow Garden wrote: »

I saw a graph on news showing Covid19 deaths by day of occurrence. Has anyone a link to that? It showed the most confirmed Covid19 deaths happened on 7th April.

I don't know what the average time from infection to death is, but that would suggest we could have been plateauing towards the end of March. It may take a while for the curve to start moving down, but this could be indicative of a very good (if anything can be good in the circumstances) outlook for Ireland. It would also suggest that the actions taken in mid to late March have worked incredibly well

Of course, we really do need to see how this all pans out, but I'm turning cautiously optimistic at this time. Pity it's taken so long for this sort of info to trickle out, but hopefully they can continue providing it

joe_99

Snow Garden wrote: »

I saw a graph on news showing Covid19 deaths by day of occurrence. Has anyone a link to that? It showed the most confirmed Covid19 deaths happened on 7th April.

This one here

Beasty

joe_99 wrote: »

Devilshaircut post explains it better than I have

But they have only been considering those who have tested positive as having been diagnosed with it, have they not?

(bear in mind only a small proportion of those tested are positive)

Not in Kansas

billyhead wrote: »

When do you think we would be able to visit elderly parents again. Both of mine live beyond the 2km limit from me and don't use Skype or any of that modern technology so we can only communicate by phone. I haven't seen them in person now since this kicked off a few weeks ago and we both miss the weekly meet up every Sunday. I am not at a risk of contracting the birud because I am working remotely and live on my own. It's horrible I can't see them. If a vaccine isn't available for 12-18 months does this mean I would be safe for their sake to wait until then. That's a horrible thought.

How far away are you? Even though I live the nearest to my mother of my siblings - within 2km - as my husband is still working his job as normal I consider us at risk of infection. Because of this I only walk up to her once or twice a week and stand halfway down her driveway while she sits at her door and we have a chat. We are on the phone twice a day.

My brother who lives over 20k away is the one that brings her her shopping and comes to walk her dog (who would drive her crazy if he wasn't exercised) as he is at lower risk as he has been working from home for weeks as has his wife. He has been stopped by the guards and just explains the situation and there is no problem.

Some things just have to be done and they can be done safely. Mental health has to be a consideration at this point. Bring a fold up chair and a flask of tea and sit at a safe distance. Tell the guards exactly what you told us.

joe_99

Beasty wrote: »

But they have only been considering those who have tested positive as having been diagnosed with it, have they not?

(bear in mind only a small proportion of those tested are positive)

That is my understanding.

Beasty

Duke of Url wrote: »

I thought there was 36 deaths listed on April 7th?

April 7
36 deaths and 345 new cases confirmed

The Health Protection Surveillance Centre has today been informed that 36 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 in Ireland have died:

27 deaths located in the east, 6 in the north west, 3 in the south
the patients included 17 females and 19 males
24 (66.6%) patients were reported as having underlying health conditions
the median age of today’s reported deaths is 81
There have now been 210 COVID-19 related deaths in Ireland. The median age of deaths in Ireland is 81. The mean age of deaths in Ireland is 79.

The Health Protection Surveillance Centre has been informed of 345 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Ireland, as at 1pm, Tuesday 7 April.

There are now 5,709 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Ireland.

The deaths recorded on a particular date covered deaths occurring over a number of days. That became clear when they presented that graph

Kermit.de.frog

The situation in Japan is looking ever more alarming being driven in large part by the surge in Tokyo as AP reports.

Hospitals in Japan are increasingly turning away sick people as the country struggles with surging coronavirus infections and its emergency medical system collapses. In one recent case, an ambulance carrying a man with a fever and difficulty breathing was rejected by 80 hospitals and forced to search for hours for a hospital in downtown Tokyo that would treat him.

Japan on Saturday reported 556 new cases of the coronavirus, surpassing the total of 10,000 about three months after the first case was detected in the country.

Nearly a third of the domestic cases come from Tokyo, where the daily surge has overburdened hospitals, triggering fears that the medical system will collapse.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/coronavirus-trump-claims-china-has-most-deaths-despite-official-statistics-1.4232530?mode=amp

Beasty

joe_99 wrote: »

This one here

The only thing I would say about that is the figures for recent days must be subject to potentially significant upwards adjustment if there is a lag between death and it getting into the figures

niallo27

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The situation in Japan is looking ever more alarming being driven in large part by the surge in Tokyo as AP reports.



https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/coronavirus-trump-claims-china-has-most-deaths-despite-official-statistics-1.4232530?mode=amp

Just once could you post something postive, try it, it might make you feel better.

BanditLuke

Michigan, Virginia and Minnesota have all experienced anti-lockdown protests. Banners held up reading 'Land of the free'. Armed protesters in Michigan!

They're going to end up in huge trouble if these protests bloom. The numbers are going to end up seriously scary there.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4b6GvszlkR0&app=desktop

Trump imo will do anything now to get re-elected, if his base turn on him and given there maybe truth in the bio-lab story i think he'll push that angle now and they could well end up in a non conventional war with China possibly cyber as well as massive sanctions.

Gynoid

niallo27 wrote: »

Just once could you post something postive, try it, it might make you feel better.

He does, reasonably often.
Perhaps posters can put the good stuff in big bold capitals and the not so good stuff under spoiler alert covers?

Kivaro

Beasty wrote: »

According to Worldometers Vietnam seems to be doing incredibly well. 268 cases and no deaths

Do you think that is reflective of what;s been going on there? Have they had a strict lockdown?

Vietnam, and Thailand.
I watch the daily count that comes in from Thailand.
1 to 3 deaths per day.
Is it a counting issue? It is a testing issue? Is it a reporting issue?

But for heavily populated countries like these, we should be taking a look to see what they are doing.

joe_99

Beasty wrote: »

The only thing I would say about that is the figures for recent days must be subject to potentially significant upwards adjustment if there is a lag between death and it getting into the figures

Correct. That is why they use recorded date as it won't change later.

niallo27

joe_99 wrote: »

Correct. That is why they use recorded date as it won't change later.

We should start to see a decrease fairly soon so if this is the case.

Roger_007

Beasty wrote: »

According to Worldometers Vietnam seems to be doing incredibly well. 268 cases and no deaths

Do you think that is reflective of what;s been going on there? Have they had a strict lockdown?

I think it has become clear that all the stats that are flying around are just so much junk data. There is no consistency or common standards about what the criteria are for recording and reporting cases or deaths or testing or anything else about this pandemic.
In Ireland we are getting figures on a daily basis which are totally without context. In the case of deaths, we have no idea when those deaths occurred. Some of them could have been weeks ago. We don’t know what the criteria are for determining what constitutes a death attributable to Covid. We get figures on positive tests without having any idea when those tests were taken. Anecdotally we hear of people being tested and hearing nothing for a couple of weeks.
I have a strong suspicion that the reported stats are being ‘managed’ to justify whatever the current policy is on restrictions rather than to inform the public about what is really going on.
If the lockdown strategy really was effective, new cases should have dropped to very low numbers after three weeks or so. This does not appear to have happened anywhere. I think that many countries are now realising that testing and tracing is the way to beat this virus rather than thrashing the economy for little or no benefit.
South Korea showed us the way to do it right but most countries, including us, just panicked each other into a bizarre competition to see who could impose the strictest measures.
As the virus is going to be still out there for a long time, we are now in a position where the ‘cocooned’ segment of the population cannot be released from their effective house arrest without admitting that the severity of the original policy was wrong.

Stheno

Beasty wrote: »

The only thing I would say about that is the figures for recent days must be subject to potentially significant upwards adjustment if there is a lag between death and it getting into the figures

There seems to be a lag of at least a week in retrofitting the data accurately

wakka12

silverharp wrote: »

has any tropical country had a major outbreak? Plenty of Vit D and secondly high UV levels which is natures disinfectant.

Yes, Indonesia,Florida, Brazil, Mexico, Ecuador,Dominican Republic, Phillipinnes...and several hot climate North African regions as well

Singapore has reported almost 1000 new cases today, almost a 20% increase in cases

Kivaro

5,000+ deaths reported in Belgium.
I would imagine that Belgium could be one of the few countries that might be getting their Covid-related deaths correctly counted.

This business of not counting nursing/care facilities deaths is not the right mechanism to use. I see that the British will start adding nursing home deaths to their total.
And how about the large numbers of people dying at home with Covid symptoms? How are they to be added? Should an autopsy or postmortem test be done on all of these, which is unpractical, or will the testimony of witnesses be sufficient to claim a Covid death.

is_that_so

Roger_007 wrote: »

I think it has become clear that all the stats that are flying around are just so much junk data. There is no consistency or common standards about what the criteria are for recording and reporting cases or deaths or testing or anything else about this pandemic.
In Ireland we are getting figures on a daily basis which are totally without context. In the case of deaths, we have no idea when those deaths occurred. Some of them could have been weeks ago. We don’t know what the criteria are for determining what constitutes a death attributable to Covid. We get figures on positive tests without having any idea when those tests were taken. Anecdotally we hear of people being tested and hearing nothing for a couple of weeks.
I have a strong suspicion that the reported stats are being ‘managed’ to justify whatever the current policy is on restrictions rather than to inform the public about what is really going on.
If the lockdown strategy really was effective, new cases should have dropped to very low numbers after three weeks or so. This does not appear to have happened anywhere. I think that many countries are now realising that testing and tracing is the way to beat this virus rather than thrashing the economy for little or no benefit.
South Korea showed us the way to do it right but most countries, including us, just panicked each other into a bizarre competition to see who could impose the strictest measures.
As the virus is going to be still out there for a long time, we are now in a position where the ‘cocooned’ segment of the population cannot be released from their effective house arrest without admitting that the severity of the original policy was wrong.

We do know when they happened, there's a death cert. What they are reporting daily is deaths notified to them on that day, which AFAIK can legally be up to a month or so.
Really not feeling any sense of panic and never have, measured is the word I would use for our step by step approach. As the somewhat excitable Paul Cullen pointed out in the IT, we cracked it inside a month.

Stheno

is_that_so wrote: »

We do know when they happened, there's a death cert. What they are reporting daily is deaths notified to them on that day, which AFAIK can legally be up to a month or so.
Really not feeling any sense of panic and never have, measured is the word I would use for our step by step approach. As the somewhat excitable Paul Cullen pointed out in the IT, we cracked it inside a month.

Can be up to three months for notifications at the moment!

dublin99

My jaws just dropped after reading the St Mary's memo written internally based on Professor Cormican's recommendation.

He is the guy who in early March advised that it was OK to live "normally" with someone who might be a suspect case so long as he is asymptomatic, as viral load is not high enough before symptoms appear. That was at a time when other countries were screaming about asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic spreaders.

He is still recommending that despite the spread in St Mary's, those asymptomatic patients are the "cleanest" and only gloves (not full PPE) need to be changed between patients.

I thought everywhere else, these "contacts" though asymptomatic are all treated "as if they have it".

That's the logic behind why many countries are imposing quarantine measures on arriving visitors who are asymptomatic, in order to slow the spread.

This Professor is described as the HSE national lead on infections control. His views seem to differ from the rest of the world. Somebody has to challenge him before more people die as a result of his "advice".

silverharp

wakka12 wrote: »

Yes, Indonesia,Florida, Brazil, Mexico, Ecuador,Dominican Republic, Phillipinnes...and several hot climate North African regions as well

Singapore has reported almost 1000 new cases today, almost a 20% increase in cases

but they are on the lower end , Brazil is 9 deaths per million. Florida is 35 but there maybe specific issues with nursing homes and retirement communities, if they arent out and about they arent benefiting from the climate advantages

Hector Savage

So to summarise :
Japan back to lockdown after explosion in cases again.
Lockdowns in Italy and Spain failing spectacularly.
Antibody tests useless ....

This is a crock of ****, I once thought this would go on for months - I am thinking years at this stage, 3-4 years of this ****ing ****..


**** THOSE CHINESE *****!!

Charles Babbage

Roger_007 wrote: »

I have a strong suspicion that the reported stats are being ‘managed’ to justify whatever the current policy is on restrictions rather than to inform the public about what is really going on.

Sometimes a delay is just a delay.

If the lockdown strategy really was effective, new cases should have dropped to very low numbers after three weeks or so. This does not appear to have happened anywhere.

R0 is below 1, but is still 0.7 or 0.8 so numbers drop but it takes time to drop to "very low numbers".

I think that many countries are now realising that testing and tracing is the way to beat this virus rather than thrashing the economy for little or no benefit.

You need elements of both, as Singapore shows.

As the virus is going to be still out there for a long time, we are now in a position where the ‘cocooned’ segment of the population cannot be released from their effective house arrest without admitting that the severity of the original policy was wrong.

Many of these people will die if they get the virus. It is only a question of how many you want to die.

The delay in stats in unfortunate, but is now largely being addressed. Reported Irish numbers will likely fall fairly quickly in a week or so, partly because of a real reduction and partly because the stats will have caught up.

Beasty

Beasty wrote: »

According to Worldometers Vietnam seems to be doing incredibly well. 268 cases and no deaths

Do you think that is reflective of what;s been going on there? Have they had a strict lockdown?

Yeah, it's remarkable how well they've handled it. At a local level, lockdown hasn't been that strict.. Most things are closed but you can wander out for groceries and that no problem. But when it comes to infected people / neighbourhoods, and at the national level, the measures have been extreme and very proactive.

Unfortunately, similar measures can only be taken reactively in democracies after massive calamity. People just wouldn't accept them otherwise.

Professor Moriarty

silverharp wrote: »

but they are on the lower end , Brazil is 9 deaths per million. Florida is 35 but there maybe specific issues with nursing homes and retirement communities, if they arent out and about they arent benefiting from the climate advantages

I wouldn't trust Bolsonaro's Brazil to tell me the time of day.