Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

Jim_Hodge

Iamabeliever wrote: »

Please tell me which village you live in?

Immaterial. Do you still maintain saying you have never seen so many people about is not a gross exaggeration?

pgj2015

lawred2 wrote: »

Hysterical nonsense without any supporting evidence.

Never seen the streets so busy!

My eyes couldn't roll much harder

my local town today before it got busy.

https://www.google.com/search?q=crowded+street&rlz=1C1AWFC_enIE861IE861&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj_lZb22fLoAhX0RhUIHeVXDFYQ_AUoAXoECAwQAw&biw=1280&bih=610&dpr=1.5#imgrc=0g1Uz3_6GErgcM

Fiery mutant

pgj2015 wrote: »

my local town today before it got busy.

https://www.google.com/search?q=crowded+street&rlz=1C1AWFC_enIE861IE861&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj_lZb22fLoAhX0RhUIHeVXDFYQ_AUoAXoECAwQAw&biw=1280&bih=610&dpr=1.5#imgrc=0g1Uz3_6GErgcM

Your link brings to a google page for crowded streets! Did you just try to pass of a google search for a busy street as your own home town?

Widdensushi

Enter name here wrote: »

None hopefully, we are no where near ready for lifting of restrictions.

back to the conditions prior to March 27th,builders etc can resume with social distancing, hardware shops etc reopen

ZX7R

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Guess is the operative word. Everybody's guessing. My guess would be a gradual lifting of restrictions in reverse order of how they were imposed, with social distancing and cocooning still in place.

Mainly a lift on restrictions on nonessential
Work places to start with once they can practice social distancing , even these will only return to work on a rolling bases.

sonofenoch

Regarding the underlying condition issue, would it be fair to say no autopsies are being carried out on the dead ? ....so would it be fair to say this virus has a good chance of finding an underlying condition as yet unknown ........I'm sure many of us are walking around with something as yet undiagnosed ....I myself can't even recall the last time I was at a Doctors

Panrich

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Well, yeah. If, in February, the HSE told you everything they knew back then, you would have shat yourself.

The problem is the lack of consistency in messaging that allows all sorts of ill informed speculation to thrive. In March we were being told that there would be 15,000 cases by the end of the month. The case numbers were not pointing to that being likely and so it transpired that it was wildly exaggerated.

Now a month later the message has flipped and we're being told everything is under control and the R number is less than 1 when every day we still have huge numbers of cases and we're showing no signs of the cases/deaths decreasing after three weeks of total lockdown.

Ace2007

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Guess is the operative word. Everybody's guessing. My guess would be a gradual lifting of restrictions in reverse order of how they were imposed, with social distancing and cocooning still in place.

I actually think DIY type places will open up and non building site tradesmen will be allow back to work, gardners/plumber/electricians etc, and see how that goes for a week or two.

elperello

Iamabeliever wrote: »

Haha well I did say, 'I never seen'. And as I live on the doorstep of Lidl, I will still stand by my (slight-overexggerated ) point

Glad you cleared that up

Christy42

Panrich wrote: »

The problem is the lack of consistency in messaging that allows all sorts of ill informed speculation to thrive. In March we were being told that there would be 15,000 cases by the end of the month. The case numbers were not pointing to that being likely and so it transpired that it was wildly exaggerated.

Now a month later the message has flipped and we're being told everything is under control and the R number is less than 1 when every day we still have huge numbers of cases and we're showing no signs of the cases/deaths decreasing after three weeks of total lockdown.

At no point where we told that 15000 would be happening. It was described as a worst case scenario. Then doom merchants ran with it as guaranteed fact.

billyhead

When do posters think the 2km rule will be relaxed?

Ace2007

Panrich wrote: »

The problem is the lack of consistency in messaging that allows all sorts of ill informed speculation to thrive. In March we were being told that there would be 15,000 cases by the end of the month. The case numbers were not pointing to that being likely and so it transpired that it was wildly exaggerated.

Now a month later the message has flipped and we're being told everything is under control and the R number is less than 1 when every day we still have huge numbers of cases and we're showing no signs of the cases/deaths decreasing after three weeks of total lockdown.

That's because of social distancing etc. Like what message did you want to hear. UK had 1000 deaths a day from this virus -

As a society Ireland pull together on this and results in lower infections.

The posters on here are unbelievable at times - blame the government because we didn't have a lot of infections/deaths.

And the same posters would have blame the government had we had 20,000 infections.

I suspect given the response that the virus numbers are increases in nursing homes and so that's why the big effort is there. They over 2 weeks to get that under countrol, before letting letting restrictions ease a little bit.

owlbethere

This is an educational video of Sars and what happens with covid.

https://youtu.be/LV8wWhjTKRU

Miike

Panrich wrote: »

The problem is the lack of consistency in messaging that allows all sorts of ill informed speculation to thrive. In March we were being told that there would be 15,000 cases by the end of the month. The case numbers were not pointing to that being likely and so it transpired that it was wildly exaggerated.

Now a month later the message has flipped and we're being told everything is under control and the R number is less than 1 when every day we still have huge numbers of cases and we're showing no signs of the cases/deaths decreasing after three weeks of total lockdown.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058062246

The growth of this virus, from the data we have at hand (I'm not interested in getting into a tinfoil hat debate), shows that we're doing a good job at keeping levels of explosive growth down. Our ICUs aren't totally overloaded and in the large we're 'coping' under the current measures. The numbers of 15k cases / day were based on the premise we do nothing at all or everyone just carried on as normal.

Point of order: we are not on a "total lockdown".

Panrich

Christy42 wrote: »

At no point where we told that 15000 would be happening. It was described as a worst case scenario. Then doom merchants ran with it as guaranteed fact.

In case you'd forgotton:

https://www.irishcentral.com/news/15k-coronavirus-cases-ireland-end-month

JP Liz V1

joe_99 wrote: »

41 new deaths recorded today

778 additional cases confirmed:

- 630 new cases confirmed in Irish labs.
- 148 cases confirmed from German labs.

RIP today's 41

elperello

billyhead wrote: »

When do posters think the 2km rule will be relaxed?

I expect it may go out to 5k to accommodate what is already happening on the ground in my experience.

Danzy

Danzy wrote: »

Many very frail and elderly people die within hours of contracting it, hardly showing symptoms.

What is happening there?

BanditLuke

Looney1 wrote: »

Would anyone hazard a guess at what restrictions will be lifted on May 5th

Id say none given we are in a really bad place.

Christy42

Panrich wrote: »

In case you'd forgotton:

https://www.irishcentral.com/news/15k-coronavirus-cases-ireland-end-month

He was talking about the worst case scenario if we did nothing. Even in the quote it is a maybe. That was when we started locking down.

podgeandrodge

BanditLuke wrote: »

Id say none given we are in a really bad place.

can you elaborate on really bad place? I thought things were looking reasonably positive, but I know positivity is not appreciated on here!

Miike

podgeandrodge wrote: »

can you elaborate on really bad place? I thought things were looking reasonably positive, but I know positivity is not appreciated on here!

We're in the top 10 in the world (excluding tiny population outliers) for cases per million population. While the news we're receiving is positive, I'm not jumping up and down for joy. I don't think anyone should be, lest we risk complacency.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Panrich

Ace2007 wrote: »

That's because of social distancing etc. Like what message did you want to hear. UK had 1000 deaths a day from this virus -

As a society Ireland pull together on this and results in lower infections.

The posters on here are unbelievable at times - blame the government because we didn't have a lot of infections/deaths.

And the same posters would have blame the government had we had 20,000 infections.

I suspect given the response that the virus numbers are increases in nursing homes and so that's why the big effort is there. They over 2 weeks to get that under countrol, before letting letting restrictions ease a little bit.

Well if you'd read my post, the answer as to what I wanted was there. I wanted a message that tallied with what the figures were saying or at least a consistent message.

I didn't believe the 15K prediction at the time and have posted on here that it was out of kilter with the evidence that was being presented.

I equally don't believe the optimism being portrayed in the past week or so. The daily numbers don't support this as we are increasing at a rate that seems to indicate we are not definitively over the peak yet.

So to me, they have flip flopped from extreme pessimism to extreme optimism in the space of a few weeks. I want to see the HSE/Government leave out the spin.

Wibbs

lawred2 wrote: »

Hysterical nonsense without any supporting evidence.

Never seen the streets so busy!

My eyes couldn't roll much harder

Oh true L, though I've very much noticed traffic over the last few days is most certainly up in my area. Have to make that clear and it's one tiny part of the world. It would be a busy Dublin suburb main road traffic area in normal times, but a week ago it was a few cars an hour, where I could nearly pull out of my drive without looking, today it's a few cars a minute. As I'm posting this now coming up to nine o'clock I'm hearing a car go by every other second, like a normal Saturday night really. It was a ghost town road ten days ago. There were a few Garda checkpoints(my road would be a fave for that), but I haven't encountered one in over a week(they're more on the ring roads now maybe? I have gone through a few on the N11 and the like) The local supermarkets are maybe a little busier but hard to say, as I only see the inside of them twice a week.

Wibbs

Miike wrote: »

We're in the top 10 in the world (excluding tiny population outliers) for cases per million population. While the news we're receiving is positive, I'm not jumping up and down for joy. I don't think anyone should be, lest we risk complacency.

What makes our position worse is that we've one of the lowest population densities in the western world. We should be lower because of that alone. Though against that it seems community transmission is way down and both our social distancing and low pop density has made a big diff there.

Larbre34

BanditLuke wrote: »

Id say none given we are in a really bad place.

Current reported deaths and new infections and the R-0 are very different things.

Much of the stats we hear this week are delayed due to the clearing of the test backlog and administrative delays in reporting fatalities. Also, a concentration of infections in nursing homes and the like skew the stats.

The fact is, we have avoided a runaway surge and the curve, as they say, has been flattened. So, in a global context we are in a contained situation, albeit hazardous and requiring tireless vigilance.

Speaking again to my medic friends in St James, he doesn't see much changing until a natural fall off in acute admissions to the main centres, but he said they aren't so much overwhelmed with cases now as fatigued from the nature of the barrier protocols, shift lengths, repetitive treatments and so on. He says the water cooler gossip there is a about a gradual reopening of a wider variety of consumer services and retailers during May with strict metering of numbers and so on. So maybe we'll see clothes shops and such like become available, but I don't see a general return to offices and hospitality work for the foreseeable.

deisedevil

Miike wrote: »

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058062246

The growth of this virus, from the data we have at hand (I'm not interested in getting into a tinfoil hat debate), shows that we're doing a good job at keeping levels of explosive growth down. Our ICUs aren't totally overloaded and in the large we're 'coping' under the current measures. The numbers of 15k cases / day were based on the premise we do nothing at all or everyone just carried on as normal.

Point of order: we are not on a "total lockdown".

How does anyone know that what number of cases there really was by the end of the month? The testing has been, and still is, no where near good enough to give a true reflection of positive cases nationwide. Even now, despite what they are saying publically through the media, nursing homes are still having to wait ages to even get a swab done on suspected cases and are being told no swab for nurses who were in contact with suspected cases, just go home for two weeks. The testing situation has never been anything like what we keep being told it would be. It's a case of over promising and under delivering time and time again. The positive case numbers have never meant a whole lot at all and our ICU numbers are the best indication of how well our restriction measures are working o would think.

elperello

Wibbs wrote: »

Oh true L, though I've very much noticed traffic over the last few days is most certainly up in my area. Have to make that clear and it's one tiny part of the world. It would be a busy Dublin suburb main road traffic area in normal times, but a week ago it was a few cars an hour, where I could nearly pull out of my drive without looking, today it's a few cars a minute. As I'm posting this now coming up to nine o'clock I'm hearing a car go by every other second, like a normal Saturday night really. It was a ghost town road ten days ago. There were a few Garda checkpoints(my road would be a fave for that), but I haven't encountered one in over a week(they're more on the ring roads now maybe? I have gone through a few on the N11 and the like) The local supermarkets are maybe a little busier but hard to say, as I only see the inside of them twice a week.

Interesting observation.

Begs the question (not that I expect you to know the answer) as to where they are all going?

No pubs, restaurants, theatres, cinemas etc. open which would be normal Saturday night destinations.

Hobgoblin11

I think we can say now we are one of the hardest hit countries in the world, act accordingly folks, stay safe

Kermit.de.frog

As protests by Trumptards erupt in midwest states in the US Illinois reports a doubling of new deaths from yesterday - 125 (67 yesterday), joins the 3 digit club

New Home

Lashes28 wrote: »

729 deaths and they are reopening beaches.
God HELP America

FYP.

BYW, this is what I think they really mean.

caveat emptor wrote: »

Probably because they are 30.

...or 22? :rolleyes:

Christy42 wrote: »

At no point where we told that 15000 would be happening. It was described as a worst case scenario. Then doom merchants ran with it as guaranteed fact.

There may very well be 15000 cases out there, not all symptomatics, not all tested. There could be more. We don't know.

Akabusi

I was talking to German colleague of mine yesterday and he told me that all construction and industry is carrying on as normal there. Only restaurants, pubs, schools and creches closed. It hasn't seemed to have hit them in a negative way. Maybe we might be looking at something similar on May 5th.

SCOOP 64

Ace2007 wrote: »

I actually think DIY type places will open up and non building site tradesmen will be allow back to work, gardners/plumber/electricians etc, and see how that goes for a week or two.

Yes and no doubt the way the government will word it will be totally open to interpretation and most non essential business will be open Tuesday 5th may.

JP Liz V1

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I suspect the nursing home situation is going to get far worse before it gets better.

Deaths are the ultimate metric of how we are doing.

Is all nursing homes staff and patients getting tested now even without symptoms?

BanditLuke

podgeandrodge wrote: »

can you elaborate on really bad place? I thought things were looking reasonably positive, but I know positivity is not appreciated on here!

9th worst in the world per million.

Nothing positive about that.

Bad place.

awec

podgeandrodge wrote: »

can you elaborate on really bad place? I thought things were looking reasonably positive, but I know positivity is not appreciated on here!

You must not have been following this thread from the start.

Ireland could announce a proven cure for Covid19 tomorrow and BanditLuke and others would be telling us all how awful it is. Total disaster.

threeball

BanditLuke wrote: »

9th worst in the world per million.

Nothing positive about that.

Bad place.

But its becoming clear that the recording of deaths in most countries is very loose. At least we are recording ours. I wouldnt make any judgements until the dust settles. I think you'll find we did ok.

Where the **** are the Irish journalists?
Sitting at home watching their twitter accounts?
Where is the holding to account in this country? Who is checking the facts and the situation at nursing homes, hospitals, ICUs. They are just doing magazine pieces and parroting the official releases.

ACitizenErased

Why the f*ck are people on here constantly complaining about the number of people out? If it's within 2km of their homes they can do whatever they want. Community spread is 'virtually zero' according to Dr. Nolan. We need to worry about nursing homes, not people f*cking shopping.

the.red.baron

Wibbs wrote: »

Oh true L, though I've very much noticed traffic over the last few days is most certainly up in my area. Have to make that clear and it's one tiny part of the world. It would be a busy Dublin suburb main road traffic area in normal times, but a week ago it was a few cars an hour, where I could nearly pull out of my drive without looking, today it's a few cars a minute. As I'm posting this now coming up to nine o'clock I'm hearing a car go by every other second, like a normal Saturday night really. It was a ghost town road ten days ago. There were a few Garda checkpoints(my road would be a fave for that), but I haven't encountered one in over a week(they're more on the ring roads now maybe? I have gone through a few on the N11 and the like) The local supermarkets are maybe a little busier but hard to say, as I only see the inside of them twice a week.

Just went into town and back out, stopped in a roadblock

Place is a ghost town, just Garda cars and a few people about their business, 95% of places are closed, just a few delivery places open

No place has ever been a few cars an hour on a main road, certainly not one they would put a checkpoint on

A normal Saturday night, you really must be joking

growleaves

729 deaths and they are reopening beaches.
God HELP America

The beaches were shut down based on of predictions of many multiples of that (even with mitigation efforts). So why wouldn't they re-open them?

Stay sane, folks

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Where the **** are the Irish journalists?
Sitting at home watching their twitter accounts?
Where is the holding to account in this country? Who is checking the facts and the situation at nursing homes, hospitals, ICUs. They are just doing magazine pieces and parroting the official releases.

And while I'm at it, why the **** does this website block out the world ****? Embarrassing in this day and age. Grow up DeVore.

Hobgoblin11

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Why the f*ck are people on here constantly complaining about the number of people out? If it's within 2km of their homes they can do whatever they want. Community spread is 'virtually zero' according to Dr. Nolan. We need to worry about nursing homes, not people f*cking shopping.

Community transmission is zero?

ACitizenErased

Hobgoblin11 wrote: »

Community transmission is zero?

Yes. It was confirmed in the press conference Thursday.

JP Liz V1

Wombatman wrote: »

Source?

I think a guy on VM1 news this week connected with nursing homes mentioned that many deceased in the nursing homes were dying while still waiting test results with no symptoms

Rob A. Bank

Saw a piece on RTE news saying people are scared to go into hospitals, even if they have symptoms of heart attack, stroke etc. Treatment is time critical in many illnesses and delay can lead to bad outcomes.

The HSE should make it very clear that people will not end up in a covid ward if they are admitted with non covid illnesses.

Hobgoblin11

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Yes. It was confirmed in the press conference Thursday.

Do you mean the R0 rate is close to 0?

froog

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Saw a piece on RTE news saying people are scared to go into hospitals, even if they have symptoms of heart attack, stroke etc. Treatment is time critical in many illnesses and delay can lead to bad outcomes.

The HSE should make it very clear that people will not end up in a covid ward if they are admitted with non covid illnesses.

to be fair to holohan, he's been banging that drum a lot the last week.

Kermit.de.frog

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

The HSE should make it very clear that people will not end up in a covid ward if they are admitted with non covid illnesses.

And how is that to be accomplished in terms of isolation?

growleaves

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Why the f*ck are people on here constantly complaining about the number of people out? If it's within 2km of their homes they can do whatever they want. Community spread is 'virtually zero' according to Dr. Nolan. We need to worry about nursing homes, not people f*cking shopping.

A German virologist found that likelihood of transmission even in supermarkets is extremely low.

Complying with the restrictions has been moralised out of all proportion. There's no moral dimension to people picking up an infection in the hospital. There are people standing by to scapegoat randomers who went for 2.1km walks if the unproven mitigation measures don't make a dent in the numbers.