Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

zinfandel

ek motor wrote: »

How do you mean ?

360 deaths on 43,000 cases is hardly accurate( cases are believed to be x 10 times ) the hospitals are at capacity and not taking any more cases.

Happy4all

growleaves wrote: »

As a UK doctor put it, if you have a fever and a cough and you fall the stairs and break your neck you'll officially be classed as a coronavirus victim.

No post-mortems allowed for alleged covid victims, just add em to the stats.

Nonsense statement. Can you provide a link?

Akrasia

jibber5000 wrote: »

Yet our death rate is nearly identical to the US.

118 per million US
116 per million Ireland

The way it's portrayed by the media here we're doing a brilliant job and trump is leading them off a cliff.

All absolute nonsense of course.

Except we flattened the curve a week ago and are declining and maintain social distancing while the US are still surging with some states already lifting their restrictions incredibly prematurely
In 2 weeks, Ireland could be almost virus free while the US will be struggling to trace contacts from the stupid protests that are happening this weekend

The US president is basically encouraging half the population to ignore the social distancing advice

ek motor

Andrew00 wrote: »

How the f*ck do they not know if you get get re-infected with this virus?

Has there been anyone in Irelands who's got the virus, recovered and then got it again

Its too early to say, we simply don't know how long immunity lasts once you recover from infection. Could be months or years. Research is ongoing.

Movementarian

jibber5000 wrote: »

Yet our death rate is nearly identical to the US.

118 per million US
116 per million Ireland

The way it's portrayed by the media here we're doing a brilliant job and trump is leading them off a cliff.

All absolute nonsense of course.

You're looking at a point in time there and drawing a conclusion way too early. US cases are growing faster then ours which will mean more ICU cases and sadly more deaths. They are being lead towards a cliff if lockdown measures arent being coordinated across the various states that share borders etc. They have also effectively not ramped up testing in many states so the chances are theres a lot of spread thats not being caught. In that regard we are doing a much better job.

Akrasia

growleaves wrote: »

As a UK doctor put it, if you have a fever and a cough and you fall the stairs and break your neck you'll officially be classed as a coronavirus victim.

No post-mortems allowed for alleged covid victims, just add em to the stats.

You don’t need a post Morten to check for infection status, a blood test will be enough

Multipass

Akrasia wrote: »

You don’t need a post Morten to check for infection status, a blood test will be enough

But you do need a post mortem to establish cause of death.

JanuarySnowstor

Does anyone know a store that's selling weedkiller such as roundup? They seem to be primarily shut

giveitholly

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Does anyone know a store that's selling weedkiller such as roundup? They seem to be primarily shut

Any stores near you selling farming supplies they might have it

Gynoid

Akrasia wrote: »

In 2 weeks, Ireland could be almost virus free

This is very unlikely. In Ireland. Or anywhere.

lawrencesummers

Multipass wrote: »

But you sometimes need a post mortem to establish cause of death.

Fixed

jibber5000

Movementarian wrote: »

You're looking at a point in time there and drawing a conclusion way too early. US cases are growing faster then ours which will mean more ICU cases and sadly more deaths. They are being lead towards a cliff if lockdown measures arent being coordinated across the various states that share borders etc. They have also effectively not ramped up testing in many states so the chances are theres a lot of spread thats not being caught. In that regard we are doing a much better job.

The death rates have been almost identical for the past two weeks. Even if the spread is not being caught it is really the mortality rate that is the key?

According to the latest UW model from 16/04 The total deaths for Florida, California and Texas are now predicted to be 5,000.

Out of a combined population of over 100 million.

Florida has had very little adherence to social distancing from the outset but has less than 750 deaths so far.

Multipass

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Does anyone know a store that's selling weedkiller such as roundup? They seem to be primarily shut

Every cloud has a silver lining 😁

Multipass

lawrencesummers wrote: »

Fixed

Which are not allowed on covid positive patients..... who may have died from their underlying condition, skewing the statistics.

eagle eye

Movementarian wrote:

You're looking at a point in time there and drawing a conclusion way too early. US cases are growing faster then ours which will mean more ICU cases and sadly more deaths. They are being lead towards a cliff if lockdown measures arent being coordinated across the various states that share borders etc. They have also effectively not ramped up testing in many states so the chances are theres a lot of spread thats not being caught. In that regard we are doing a much better job.

As long as we allow people to enter Ireland without state monitored quarantine we are doing a terrible job.

lawrencesummers

Multipass wrote: »

Which are not allowed on covid positive patients..... who may have died from their underlying condition, skewing the statistics.

A lot of maybes in those statements..

Hobgoblin11

Minister Harris has also thrown into question large gatherings like GAA matches or festivals such as Electric Picnic.

amadangomor

Multipass wrote: »

Every cloud has a silver lining 😁

Exactly. Why anyone would want to use a known carcinogen to have their garden looking a bit tidier is beyond me.

Movementarian

jibber5000 wrote: »

The death rates have been almost identical for the past two weeks. Even if the spread is not being caught it is really the mortality rate that is the key?

According to the latest UW model from 16/04 The total deaths for Florida, California and Texas are now predicted to be 5,000.

Out of a combined population of over 100 million.

Florida has had very little adherence to social distancing from the outset but has less than 750 deaths so far.

From what has happened in other countries the spread can alter the mortality rate if hospitals are overwhelmed like what happened in New York at the start.

Key point as you said yourself is 'so far'. Modelsare based on current measures being maintained. The push for states to open again is happening right now and Trump is being quite dangerous in tweeting support which is encouraging gatherings for protests.

munsterlegend

Hobgoblin11 wrote: »

Minister Harris has also thrown into question large gatherings like GAA matches or festivals such as Electric Picnic.

I don’t think anyone is expecting large crowd events to take place this summer. Even the professional soccer leagues are gearing towards behind closed doors matches.

ek motor

Hobgoblin11 wrote: »

Minister Harris has also thrown into question large gatherings like GAA matches or festivals such as Electric Picnic.

Hard to see any festivals going ahead this year. I had tickets for the Pixies in July

ek motor

ek motor wrote: »

Its too early to say, we simply don't know how long immunity lasts once you recover from infection. Could be months or years. Research is ongoing.

We have a few corona viruses doing the rounds every year. What is the immunity like for them.

ceadaoin.

Akrasia wrote: »

Except we flattened the curve a week ago and are declining and maintain social distancing while the US are still surging with some states already lifting their restrictions incredibly prematurely
In 2 weeks, Ireland could be almost virus free while the US will be struggling to trace contacts from the stupid protests that are happening this weekend

The US president is basically encouraging half the population to ignore the social distancing advice

"The US" is not all surging at all. Many places have flattened the curve, even NYC. Fact is, some parts of the US are ok to begin lifting their restrictions. Not fully of course, but gradually. Whether every state makes that choice at the right time remains to be seen.

The One Doctor

ek motor wrote: »

Hard to see any festivals going ahead this year. I had tickets for the Pixies in July

There's no way any large events will happen this summer. No chance. Too dangerous.

jibber5000

Movementarian wrote: »

From what has happened in other countries the spread can alter the mortality rate if hospitals are overwhelmed like what happened in New York at the start.

Key point as you said yourself is 'so far'. Modelsare based on current measures being maintained. The push for states to open again is happening right now and Trump is being quite dangerous in tweeting support which is encouraging gatherings for protests.

My point is their starting point was maybe a few days after ours but the vast majority of their states - new York, Michigan being the exceptions - have done really well.

If they keep their vulnerable adults cocooned and get their economy up and running it could work for them.

We are all only guessing about how things will work out.

BattleCorp

The One Doctor wrote: »

There's no way any large events will happen this summer. No chance. Too dangerous.

Agreed. Social distancing is here to stay for a long time.

We might get back to work slowly during the Summer if we get control on the spread of the virus but we are going to be a very long way away from normal.

ek motor

Deleted User wrote: »

We have a few corona viruses doing the rounds every year. What is the immunity like for them.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/can-you-become-immune-sars-cov-2-180974532/

According to this article the immunity ranges from between a 'matter of months and a couple of years'

Akrasia

Multipass wrote: »

But you do need a post mortem to establish cause of death.

The post I referred to mentioned falling down the stairs with a fever and a cough. If that person was confirmed to have coronavirus then it’s not unreasonable to link that death to the virus. People suffering from fever and shortness of breath would be at much higher risk of falling down the stairs

If someone fell down the stairs after drinking a bottle of whiskey, would you consider that death as alcohol related?

Drumpot

jibber5000 wrote: »

Yet our death rate is nearly identical to the US.

118 per million US
116 per million Ireland

The way it's portrayed by the media here we're doing a brilliant job and trump is leading them off a cliff.

All absolute nonsense of course.

We have been closed up mostly for weeks so it would be reasonable to assume we are coming to the tipping point of our peak. USA is only at the start and many states are already talking about opening up again. Unless the rest of the world got it wrong (possible I suppose) , the USA is about to go into overdrive and their president is stoking up civil unrest. But I do agree we should focus more on ourselves as it easy to be distracted by our friends across the Atlantic or Irish Sea.

You can’t really judge how Ireland is performing with ever changing environment and disjointed data that’s just not like for like. How countries record data and make it publicly available is different. There is a lag with some information that’s not corrected for weeks As countries learn to deal with managing the virus. There are over 50 states dealing with it their own way so it’s no surprise that they all over the shop. Would you put it past some states (Texas) suppressing information so they can open up again?

Nursing homes seems to not only be a problem in Ireland by the looks of things. That’s not good enough but I’m not sure we can be singled out there. Same with PPE equipment. It’s not that it’s ok for these to be issues , it’s that it’s a global issue.

An even bigger issue is populations absolute ignorance and continued “blame government/China/Nicholas Cage/anybody else” solutions/strategy’s. Nothing ever seems to be learned from crisis, put the fire out, forget everything learned and move on. What is our role as a population in what has happened? How much resources have we demanded be put into nursing homes and to protect our vulnerable? We have no infrastructure in place to help our most vulnerable when they need us most, what does that say about us as a society? What do we do as a nation to prepare ourselves for crisis. We all rememeber the salt scenario for the cold spells, we really don’t like planning for much in this country and a lot of people take “that’s scaremongering” approach to crisis planning , which is ridiculous.

If everybody in the world and populations took ownership of the issues facing that country (instead of blaming somebody or something else) the world would be in much better shape. Changing governments solves nothing and only serves to give the impression of change. SF, FF, FG, Lab, Ind, Greens are voted in by the same people demanding the same things.

jibber5000

Akrasia wrote: »

Except we flattened the curve a week ago and are declining and maintain social distancing while the US are still surging with some states already lifting their restrictions incredibly prematurely
In 2 weeks, Ireland could be almost virus free while the US will be struggling to trace contacts from the stupid protests that are happening this weekend

The US president is basically encouraging half the population to ignore the social distancing advice

The vast majoroty of US states have flattened the curve too. I think the ones that do open up will do so gradually and in a safe manor.

Do we even know our exit strategy? We're going to have to open up eventually.

Professor Moriarty

jibber5000 wrote: »

The vast majoroty of US states have flattened the curve too. I think the ones that do open up will do so gradually and in a safe manor.

Do we even know our exit strategy? We're going to have to open up eventually.

Good point. Someone should ring the HSE and suggest that they begin to think about an exit strategy. They've probably forgotten to work on it.

GetWithIt

Anyone know why the US total for deaths declined yesterday? Down from 36.8K to 33.9K.

speckle

Gynoid wrote: »

I find it interesting to hear from other places like Vietnam, about what is going on. And teaching English as a foreign language is as good a work as any other. Might do it meself some day. It would be interesting to get regular reports from anywhere, Spain, Italy, France, Brazil, Ecuador, Iceland, Sweden, India, Africa, anywhere. And masks protect people. They are an ancient and instinctive mechanism for protection.

Try

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum
A site run by volunteers who accept no funding, sphonsorship etc. They have been posting since late december on covid. A mix of ordinary folk and medical professionals. :-)

Harry Palmr

Media briefing now about to start

Drumpot

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Media briefing now about to start

Where?

joe40

The One Doctor wrote: »

There's no way any large events will happen this summer. No chance. Too dangerous.

Absolutely, if we can gradually get back to opening workplaces and shops over the summer with social distancing measures in place, with a view to opening schools in September that would be great.
Lack of concerts, foreign holidays and pubs for a few months would be a relatively small price to pay to get over this thing. It might not even be that easy.
obviously I'm not talking about employees in those sectors, it is a disaster for them I'm simply talking about our lack of entertainment, been a manageble cost.

Harry Palmr

Drumpot wrote: »

Where?

RTE News Now, this according to Fergal Bowers.

jibber5000

Drumpot wrote: »

We have been closed up mostly for weeks so it would be reasonable to assume we are coming to the tipping point of our peak. USA is only at the start and many states are already talking about opening up again. Unless the rest of the world got it wrong (possible I suppose) , the USA is about to go into overdrive and their president is stoking up civil unrest. But I do agree we should focus more on ourselves as it easy to be distracted by our friends across the Atlantic or Irish Sea.

You can’t really judge how Ireland is performing with ever changing environment and disjointed data that’s just not like for like. How countries record data and make it publicly available is different. There is a lag with some information that’s not corrected for weeks As countries learn to deal with managing the virus. There are over 50 states dealing with it their own way so it’s no surprise that they all over the shop. Would you put it past some states (Texas) suppressing information so they can open up again?

Nursing homes seems to not only be a problem in Ireland by the looks of things. That’s not good enough but I’m not sure we can be singled out there. Same with PPE equipment. It’s not that it’s ok for these to be issues , it’s that it’s a global issue.

An even bigger issue is populations absolute ignorance and continued “blame government” solutions/strategy’s. Nothing ever seems to be learned from crisis, put the fire out, forget everything learned and move on. What is our role as a population in what has happened? How much resources have we demanded be put into nursing homes and to protect our vulnerable? We have no infrastructure in place to help our most vulnerable when they need us most, what does that say about us as a society?

If everybody in the world and populations took ownership of the issues facing that country (instead of blaming somebody or something else) the world would be in much better shape. Changing governments solves nothing and only serves to give the impression of change. SF, FF, FG, Lab, Ind, Greens are voted in by the same people demanding the same things.

I think the default is to base performances on the tone of the leader - Trump brash vs Leo sombre and thoughtful.

When you look closer and take out his pompous declarations, he's acted pretty well. The travel ban has been well discussed but it was a proactive move that saved lives. He also refused to give New York the 40,000 ventilators they said they needed. The correct number turned out to be under 10,000.

Our government let air travel come unabated from a highly infective region. Allowed the numbers of dead in nursing homes to reach almost 40% of the total and presided over a shambles of a testing system that had healthcare workers waiting 14 days for test results in some cases.

munsterlegend

Drumpot wrote: »

Where?

RTÉ news now. Always the same channel

ek motor

GetWithIt wrote: »

Anyone know why the US total for deaths declined yesterday? Down from 36.8K to 33.9K.

Where are you seeing these figures ? John Hopkins and Worldometers both reporting 39k deaths for USA.

smelly sock

jibber5000 wrote: »

I think the default is to base performances on the tone of the leader - Trump brash vs Leo sombre and thoughtful.

When you look closer and take out his pompous declarations, he's acted pretty well. The travel ban has been well discussed but it was a proactive move that saved lives. He also refused to give New York the 40,000 ventilators they said they needed. The correct number turned out to be under 10,000.

Our government let air travel come unabated from a highly infective region. Allowed the numbers of dead in nursing homes to reach almost 40% of the total and presided over a shambles of a testing system that had healthcare workers waiting 14 days for test results in some cases.

We have flattened the curve though and imposed savage restrictions on people.

The govt. did ok imo.

People were always going to die. Thats unfortunate and RIP to them but its life.

Its now time to start lifting lockdown and returning as many things to normal as possible.

GetWithIt

ek motor wrote: »

Where are you seeing these figures ? John Hopkins and Worldometers both reporting 39k deaths for USA.

It appears the Johns Hopkins US dashboard isn't being refreshed from the same data.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map

It's a far better dashboard as it highlights the hotspots based on cases per population, rather than simply giving totals - which then just becomes a population density map. Looks like it's a bit beta.

wadacrack

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Good point. Someone should ring the HSE and suggest that they begin to think about an exit strategy. They've probably forgotten to work on it.

Follow Austria . This will give an indication of what Ireland will do. ALL European countries will follow the same protocol . Slowly open back up when numbers are low enough for the healthcare system to function. Test, trace, isolate any exciting outbreaks

Cork Boy 53

ek motor wrote: »

Hard to see any festivals going ahead this year. I had tickets for the Pixies in July

There certainly won`t be any concerts, festivals etc. this summer and probably not for the rest of 2020. You will surely be entitled to a refund of your tickets money though.

Harry Palmr

Three new testing categories.

Test and Trace
PPE
Long term residential accommodation

Test back log eliminated

German lab remains in place 27 labs on board, 26 Ireland, 1 Germany (40% of testing)

1000 tests a day

150,000 reagent packs checking done being distributed

11,500 swab tests done in community last week.

Focus is around three priority areas over coming weeks

4000 tests over this weekend in long term care settings

40% have Covid 19, protect the other 60% by testing

PPE challenge - remains challenge,
batch 1 order - 33 million items is delivered and distributed
batch 2 commenced yesterday
Working with China on another 140m items for supply in next two months.
2000 vents for delivery

The_Kew_Tour

The tricky bit for me when I hear the figures is I'm not sure how good or bad we are doing. In no way should we be in top 15 or so per population for host of reasons.

But when you then see likes of UK and Poland for example who have not included deaths outside of hospitals then its hard to measure.

You hear 44 deaths and its awful that these people die and all have family who are grieving. But it's hard say is it a job well done that it should 100 deaths per day or should it only be 10 per day for example.

It's hard measure due to different takes from all different countries and you would have question some countries and their figures. Not trying to put on Tin Foil hat on or anything.

jibber5000

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Good point. Someone should ring the HSE and suggest that they begin to think about an exit strategy. They've probably forgotten to work on it.

You'll accept social distancing until a vaccine is created? Could be 12 , probably 18 months. Pubs remaining shut, restaurants etc

They have no idea what to do.

joe40

jibber5000 wrote: »

I think the default is to base performances on the tone of the leader - Trump brash vs Leo sombre and thoughtful.

When you look closer and take out his pompous declarations, he's acted pretty well. The travel ban has been well discussed but it was a proactive move that saved lives. He also refused to give New York the 40,000 ventilators they said they needed. The correct number turned out to be under 10,000.

Our government let air travel come unabated from a highly infective region. Allowed the numbers of dead in nursing homes to reach almost 40% of the total and presided over a shambles of a testing system that had healthcare workers waiting 14 days for test results in some cases.

Trumps travel ban was just to suit his anti China position. In terms of the actual corona virus he constantly downplayed the seriousness, to a level bordering on criminal negligence. The measures have been taken by individual states, the federal govt response has been a disaster.
Even now he is supporting clowns protesting the lockdown restrictions in Michigan.
In terms of world Leaders Trump has been shown up as a total clown.
The really sad thing is it may not affect his popularity.
His daughter and son in law are senior advisors. Neither of whom are in any way qualified. That would not happen in any other democracy.

OscarMIlde

patnor1011 wrote: »

Found on the internet:

Coronavirus are incredibly common. A large percentage of the world human population will have covi DNA in them in small quantities even if they are perfectly well or sick with some other pathogen.
Do you see where this is going yet? If you want to create a totally false panic about a totally false pandemic – pick a coronavirus.

They are incredibly common and there’s tons of them. A very high percentage of people who have become sick by other means (flu, bacterial pneumonia, anything) will have a positive PCR test for covi even if you’re doing them properly and ruling out contamination, simply because covis are so common. There are hundreds of thousands of flu and pneumonia victims in hospitals throughout the world at any one time.

All you need to do is select the sickest of these in a single location – say Wuhan – administer PCR tests to them and claim anyone showing viral sequences similar to a coronavirus (which will inevitably be quite a few) is suffering from a ‘new’ disease. Since you already selected the sickest flu cases a fairly high proportion of your sample will go on to die.

You can then say this ‘new’ virus has a CFR (case fatality rate) higher than the flu and use this to infuse more concern and do more tests which will of course produce more ‘cases’, which expands the testing, which produces yet more ‘cases’ and so on and so on. Before long you have your ‘pandemic’, and all you have done is use a simple test kit trick to convert the worst flu and pneumonia cases into something new that doesn’t actually exist.

Now just run the same scam in other countries. Making sure to keep the fear message running high so that people will feel panicky and less able to think critically. Your only problem is going to be that – due to the fact there is no actual new deadly pathogen but just regular sick people, you are mislabeling your case numbers, and especially your deaths, are going to be way too low for a real new deadly virus pandemic.

But you can stop people pointing this out in several ways.

1. You can claim this is just the beginning and more deaths are imminent. Use this as an excuse to quarantine everyone and then claim the quarantine prevented the expected millions of dead.
2. You can tell people that ‘minimizing’ the dangers is irresponsible and bully them into not talking about numbers.
3. You can talk crap about made up numbers hoping to blind people with pseudoscience.
4. You can start testing well people (who, of course, will also likely have shreds of coronavirus DNA in them) and thus inflate your ‘case figures’ with ‘asymptomatic carriers’ (you will of course have to spin that to sound deadly even though any virologist knows the more symptom-less cases you have the less deadly is your pathogen).

Take these 4 simple steps and you can have your own entirely manufactured pandemic up and running in weeks.

They can not “confirm” something for which there is no accurate test.”

BOOM.

Bull****. The primers used to test for this are specific to Sars-Co-V-2. Nonspecific sequences are not being amplified by this process. Also, RT-PCR is used in this instance to magnify DNA from virus RNA. Past integration of coronavirus strains into the genome would no longer be active and thus no RNA circulating from it.

Azatadine

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

There certainly won`t be any concerts, festivals etc. this summer and probably not for the rest of 2020. You will surely be entitled to a refund of your tickets money though.

Pubs won't open this year or maybe next year either. Pubs, concerts etc will be the last things to come back. I doubt they will be back until a vaccine is available.