Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

Danzy

jibber5000 wrote: »

Nobody said it was insightful leadership. But he did it and that's part of the reason that the vast majority of states have low infection rates.

It's going to be worse because of sheer population and accurate reporting. Per capita as I've said earlier it's right beside us.

Again most states have seen the peak of the curve. Should they all stay shut because of new York?

Have you seen the unemployment numbers? If you think a continued shut down won't destroy millions of lives you're delusional.

Jibber has a point here. America is doing well with it so far.

A continued lockdown there will lead to a severe global depression.

It must be balanced and there will be no return to normal. Most of America has levels of infection, that are well below ours when we locked down.

People need to put aside the obsession with Trump and look at the bigger picture.

growleaves

The disease is a plague, and sweeps through countries

It sweeps through countries killing as many people as a seasonal illness.

There are always selfish vandals, idiots and criminals in society which we try to control with varying success.

Vandals? What's being vandalised?

Mullaghteelin

Paddygreen wrote: »

Also the last time I was clapping and woohooing out my landing window for our amazing Healthcare Heros I noticed that some of my neighbours were no longer doing so. I am keeping an eye out to see what they are up to, to see if they are still following the rules.

So.. You're are suspicious of your neighbours because they won't put on fake smiles and stand outside clapping? Seriously, that is sinister and creepy cult-like behaviour. It's like being suspicious of your neighbour for not saying Heil Hitler in WWII Germany.
In fairness, the clapping loses its impact if its done too often, and isn't genuine if there's peer pressure involved.

wakka12

growleaves wrote: »

It sweeps through countries killing as many people as a seasonal illness.



Vandals? What's being vandalised?

In countries where it has 'swept through' it has killed multiples of what seasonal illness does

A 'serious epidemic of influenza' would kill 1150 people in Belgium in a whole year, in a typical year just 500 deaths.
https://www.sciensano.be/en/node/464
Belgium currently has reported almost 5700 deaths from COVID, and that is in FOUR weeks. So kindly stop posting bull**** misinformation

Gonzo

I reckon pubs will open before the end of the Summer at the latest. That is a massive industry to leave closed for 6+ months and if they decide to keep them closed into 2021 most of them will never reopen.

So we could see the pubs open again by July or early August, however gone will be the days of standing shoulder to shoulder in a pub with pints in hand. Social distancing will have to be introduced to pubs, no crowds, hand sanitizers at the door on the way in and way out. Some may even have security checking that customers are washing/disinfecting their hands. Everyone will have to sit down to have their drink, no standing crowding up the place. This could work, it won't be the same as what it was but it's far better than keeping them shut for the rest of the year.

Loafing Oaf

Mullaghteelin wrote: »

So.. You're are suspicious of your neighbours because they won't put on fake smiles and stand outside clapping? Seriously, that is sinister and creepy cult-like behaviour.

He's spoofing lockdown 'fanatics'

Professor Moriarty

Gonzo wrote: »

I reckon pubs will open before the end of the Summer at the latest. That is a massive industry to leave closed for 6+ months and if they decide to keep them closed into 2021 most of them will never reopen.

So we could see the pubs open again by July or early August, however gone will be the days of standing shoulder to shoulder in a pub with pints in hand. Social distancing will have to be introduced to pubs, no crowds, hand sanitizers at the door on the way in and way out. Some may even have security checking that customers are washing/disinfecting their hands. Everyone will have to sit down to have their drink, no standing crowding up the place. This could work, it won't be the same as what it was but it's far better than keeping them shut for the rest of the year.

You'll be paying an awful lot more for that pint.

gmisk

ceadaoin. wrote: »

"The US" is not all surging at all. Many places have flattened the curve, even NYC. Fact is, some parts of the US are ok to begin lifting their restrictions. Not fully of course, but gradually. Whether every state makes that choice at the right time remains to be seen.

I suppose let's wait and see how things turn out in the US..but re opening beaches in Florida...they are heaving within 30 minutes...I don't think it will end well.

Drumpot

jibber5000 wrote: »

Because you can't look at one in isolation.

No point saying ive fixed my broken ankle, all I had to do was cut off my leg.

If the US stays in lockdown for months tens of millions will be adversely affected. You'll have increased mental health issues, suicides, people turning to drugs.

I think it's easy for some people, who usually have well paid fixed jobs, to judge people who don't know where theyre going to get money to feed their family.

The USA barely started their lockdown and trump was talking about opening up again. Allowing church and mass groups to merge onto beaches is retarded and is not vital to keep an economy going.

USA is richer then Ireland, so how come we could come up with at least 3 month financial strategy to help most people/families and the USA can’t? It’s not that they can’t, its that they won’t because of political ideals.

In terms of people stuck at home, mental health issues can be addressed. I’ve suffered them myself but there are a lot of online supports. This is a red herring argument on its own.

Eventually with more knowledge and a better way of handling this and possibly down to necessity, we will have to lower restrictions. But the USA has no strategy , it’s a headless chicken throw crap at a wall and see what sticks approach with the economy’s demands overriding human safety. That on its own is a horrible indictment of that country.

podgeandrodge

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Have we any cases of supermarket staff here infected? I'm very surprised that I've not seen any in the media yet these workers would be currently the most exposed by far outside the healthcare sector.

Most articles/studies on this have explicitly stated that, while the virus can be airborne, there is no proof that the smaller particles lying around in the air are sufficient to infect. Supermarket staff are not falling ill in their droves. They would be if all these coughs and sneezes were hovering about like this and were big enough droplets to infect.

As you say, if staff were falling sick this would be front page news. It isn't.

And according to Govt, we have close to zero community growth. So what's happening with all the droplets that can so easily cause infection?


Interesting article on this:
https://today.rtl.lu/news/science-and-environment/a/1498185.html

eagle eye

smelly sock wrote:

The govt. did ok imo.

They have been nothing short of horrendous and continue to be. They allowed 180+ Bulgarians in here in the middle of a lockdown without quarantine. I wonder how many others they let in?
Cheltenham and the thousands who went over without much objection from our government, our horse racing industry was allowed to continue travelling the country and put on race meetings for over a week after even the UK had stopped it.
The lockdown was far too late starting. The lack of supplies and general unpreparedness for an emergency situation is on them as well.
I could go on but it's pointless. What matters now us getting us in the best position to beat this thing. Quarantining anybody that wants to come in here is paramount to our recovery as well as being tough on those who aren't going along with the lockdown.

growleaves

In countries where it has 'swept through' it has killed multiples of what seasonal illness does

Nope. Even with inflated figures there's no hiding the reality:

A few years ago influenza killed 28,000 in the UK. Coronavirus deaths are at 15,000.

If the disease has peaked, which many epidemologists seem to think (including the 'official' ones), then its just an ordinary coronavirus like other coronaviruses.

If you were to take a bad flu year which killed 650,000 globally (upper end of the spectrum) and follow it breathlessly day by day, look at cases and deaths every day, focus on deaths from lack of ICU capacity, which does happen, the emotional result would be the same.

Kermit.de.frog

Deaths wilt, cases surge in Spain

+410 deaths & 4,218 new cases

Inquitus

Opening schools one day a week is daft.

wakka12

growleaves wrote: »

Nope. Even with inflated figures there's no hiding the reality:

A few years ago influenza killed 28,000 in the UK. Coronavirus deaths are at 15,000.

If the disease has peaked, which many seem epidemologists seem to think (including the 'official' ones), then its just an ordinary coronavirus like other coronaviruses.

If you were to take a bad flu year which killed 650,000 globally (upper end of the spectrum) and follow it breathlessly day by day, look at cases and deaths every day, focus on deaths from lack of ICU capacity, which does happen, the emotional result would be the same.

This is simply wrong, as I said, Belgium has experienced 5x times the number of deaths of a BAD flu year in just four weeks. It is incomparable to flu. Do you think 'peak' means its over, multiple waves are expected throughout the autumn

Flu operates globally, COVID is not currently pandemic within much of the globe, such as much of Africa and China and India. So how could it be compared to flu in that regard. If you look at places where it is widespread, France,Spain, Italy, New York, Belgium it is killing multiples of the deaths caused by seasonal illness in a much shorter timeframe

wadacrack

growleaves wrote: »

Nope. Even with inflated figures there's no hiding the reality:

A few years ago influenza killed 28,000 in the UK. Coronavirus deaths are at 15,000.

If the disease has peaked, which many seem epidemologists seem to think (including the 'official' ones), then its just an ordinary coronavirus like other coronaviruses.

If you were to take a bad flu year which killed 650,000 globally (upper end of the spectrum) and follow it breathlessly day by day, look at cases and deaths every day, focus on deaths from lack of ICU capacity, which does happen, the emotional result would be the same.

It would be 150,000 death in a year compared to 28,000 if no restrictions. Thats a conservative number too. It has a mortality 20 times greater and is more infectious. It is much worse and your argument is illogical. We don't know about the long term side effects or immunity either. Lots of unknowns compared to the flu. Every country is on lockdown for a reason. It has only peaked because of a lockdown btw. Its going to surge back up if we just go back to normal. Every epidemiologist understands this

Gynoid

wakka12 wrote: »

In countries where it has 'swept through' it has killed multiples of what seasonal illness does

A lot of people seem to be in some sort of a negotiation phase with a virus, attempting to process what has so very radically changed in the world in the past few months.

You let us have our treats back, our jobs, our economy, and we will let you "burn" through the herd and give you the older and weaker ones (they hope). We will do without our pubs and concerts (maybe) but please let us back out and we will build up vast ICUs full of ventilators to hook up to the percentage of people you strike severely.

I don't think a lot of people really get what has happened. It is hard to process it. A bit shocking, a lot shocking.

When we release restrictions there will be fresh waves of infection as people come together and transmit, and the numbers in hospitals, ICUs and morgues will increase. Maybe a lot. Maybe you or me will get a terrible dose in spite of all efforts standing back in the office, canteen, site, factory floor. Maybe your friends. Your family.

It is just the way it will be. I know. It is hard to get the mind around. No wonder people are doing all sorts of bargaining and negotiating with reality. It is an awful thing released from Pandora's Box.

Cork Boy 53

eagle eye wrote: »

They have been nothing short of horrendous and continue to be. They allowed 180+ Bulgarians in here in the middle of a lockdown without quarantine. I wonder how many others they let in?
Cheltenham and the thousands who went over without much objection from our government, our horse racing industry was allowed to continue travelling the country and put on race meetings for over a week after even the UK had stopped it.
The lockdown was far too late starting. The lack of supplies and general unpreparedness for an emergency situation is on them as well.
I could go on but it's pointless. What matters now us getting us in the best position to beat this thing. Quarantining anybody that wants to come in here is paramount to our recovery as well as being tough on those who aren't going along with the lockdown.

I agree with many of your comments here. However it does seem that the Bulgarian workers actually are being quarantined if you take the statements made about them at face value anyway.

declanflynn

eagle eye wrote: »

They have been nothing short of horrendous and continue to be. They allowed 180+ Bulgarians in here in the middle of a lockdown without quarantine. I wonder how many others they let in?
Cheltenham and the thousands who went over without much objection from our government, our horse racing industry was allowed to continue travelling the country and put on race meetings for over a week after even the UK had stopped it.
The lockdown was far too late starting. The lack of supplies and general unpreparedness for an emergency situation is on them as well.
I could go on but it's pointless. What matters now us getting us in the best position to beat this thing. Quarantining anybody that wants to come in here is paramount to our recovery as well as being tough on those who aren't going along with the lockdown.

The virus was allowed to spread to a point where our health service could handle it, the government got it almost spot on, keeping the virus out was never a runner.

Kermit.de.frog

Belgium reports 230 new deaths. Exact same as yesterday.

eagle eye

Cork Boy 53 wrote:

I agree with many of your comments here. However it does seem that the Bulgarian workers actually are being quarantined if you take the statements made about them at face value anyway.

We cannot depend on third parties to do this, it has to be done by the State. We have to ensure its actually happening.

stephenjmcd

Gonzo wrote: »

I reckon pubs will open before the end of the Summer at the latest. That is a massive industry to leave closed for 6+ months and if they decide to keep them closed into 2021 most of them will never reopen.

So we could see the pubs open again by July or early August, however gone will be the days of standing shoulder to shoulder in a pub with pints in hand. Social distancing will have to be introduced to pubs, no crowds, hand sanitizers at the door on the way in and way out. Some may even have security checking that customers are washing/disinfecting their hands. Everyone will have to sit down to have their drink, no standing crowding up the place. This could work, it won't be the same as what it was but it's far better than keeping them shut for the rest of the year.

There was a suggestion made by De Gascun yesterday about some non essential business opening with a reduced capacity, likewise Harris says today we wont see packed pubs, again a suggestion of limited capacity.

BattleCorp

declanflynn wrote: »

The virus was allowed to spread to a point where our health service could handle it, the government got it almost spot on, keeping the virus out was never a runner.

The virus wasn't allowed to spread, we couldn't stop it spreading. We are just about managing to keep a lid on the spread. Any easing up and the spread will take off again.

ZX7R

Gonzo wrote: »

I reckon pubs will open before the end of the Summer at the latest. That is a massive industry to leave closed for 6+ months and if they decide to keep them closed into 2021 most of them will never reopen.

So we could see the pubs open again by July or early August, however gone will be the days of standing shoulder to shoulder in a pub with pints in hand. Social distancing will have to be introduced to pubs, no crowds, hand sanitizers at the door on the way in and way out. Some may even have security checking that customers are washing/disinfecting their hands. Everyone will have to sit down to have their drink, no standing crowding up the place. This could work, it won't be the same as what it was but it's far better than keeping them shut for the rest of the year.

A different projects manager I work with is dealing with security for the vintners association, the day of being drunk in a pub will be gone, strict enforcement of existing intoxication acts will be inforced .
But to be fair this will be more so inforced in city's large towns.
Hopefully!

podgeandrodge

stephenjmcd wrote: »

There was a suggestion made by De Gascun yesterday about some non essential business opening with a reduced capacity, likewise Harris says today we wont see packed pubs, again a suggestion of limited capacity.

Agreed. Nothing they say has not been thought out in terms of added words. ("fully opened", "packed")

BattleCorp

stephenjmcd wrote: »

There was a suggestion made by De Gascun yesterday about some non essential business opening with a reduced capacity, likewise Harris says today we wont see packed pubs, again a suggestion of limited capacity.

How do you enforce social distancing in pubs? Serious question. Everyone using same toilets, sinks etc. Loads of people in a confined space.

Difficult at the best of times but even more difficult when people have a skinful.

Lolle06

youandme13 wrote: »

I've said that to a few people to be told don't be silly! But in reality they still don't have a vaccine for SARRS which is a cousin of covid19!

They had developed a vaccine for SARS in the US but couldn’t get the funding for the trials as the governments and the pharmaceuticals lost interest in it after it was pretty much done by 2005 and other viruses (ie. MERS) came around since then.

Edit: source
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-care/scientists-were-close-coronavirus-vaccine-years-ago-then-money-dried-n1150091

podgeandrodge

ZX7R wrote: »

A different projects manager I work with is dealing with security for the vintners association, the day of being drunk in a pub will be gone, strict enforcement of existing intoxication acts will be inforced .
But to be fair this will be more so inforced in city's large towns.
Hopefully!

So this project manager who deals with security is changing the way the public enjoy pubs. Is this because of corona virus?
It seems very optimistic to stop people getting drunk!

BanditLuke

growleaves wrote: »

It sweeps through countries killing as many people as a seasonal illness.



Vandals? What's being vandalised?

This is plain misinformation.

Please check your facts before posting.

podgeandrodge

BattleCorp wrote: »

How do you enforce social distancing in pubs? Serious question. Everyone using same toilets, sinks etc. Loads of people in a confined space.

Difficult at the best of times but even more difficult when people have a skinful.

Table service potentially for some. Maximum amount of customers. Difficult maybe but...

ChikiChiki

Discodog wrote: »

Meanwhile in the UK :pac:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/camper-van-escort-still-seeing-21888849

She must be absolutely riddled. I doubt even Covid 19 would get up on that.

declanflynn

BattleCorp wrote: »

The virus wasn't allowed to spread, we couldn't stop it spreading. We are just about managing to keep a lid on the spread. Any easing up and the spread will take off again.

The virus was allowed to spread to a certain point.
We are well on top of it due to good government, people adhering to social distancing and some luck.

podgeandrodge

ChikiChiki wrote: »

She must be absolutely riddled. I doubt even Covid 19 would get up on that.

Spare a thought for the men queuing up after each other.

Drumpot

Serious question re pubs in particular, how can you have any meaningful social distancing and open up a pub? How can they be open up in any “safe” way while the virus is spreading? I think the answer is that you simply can’t.

You could make an argument about a lot of leisure activities, sports, schools, offices etc but one of the defining differences is that people drinking lower their inhabitions and their guard and part of the allure of pubs is being in a close Environment with friends. It seems impossible to make pubs much less breeding grounds for the virus then they were unless people drink on their own! Alcohol is a drug that makes a lot of people do stupid things and even just get sloppy.

Ultimately it will probably just boil down to people want to drink and will demand their comfort , which is kinda sad when you think about it.

BattleCorp

BattleCorp wrote: »

How do you enforce social distancing in pubs? Serious question. Everyone using same toilets, sinks etc. Loads of people in a confined space.

Difficult at the best of times but even more difficult when people have a skinful.

There are loads of pubs n town where you;re literally elbow to elbow at the urinal. Judge roy beans/porter house etc. so is it a one in and one out policy of the toilet? really where drink is concerned? you think ladies ques are long ordinarily? imagine this, it;s just not possible at all. gyms and pubs will be hit hard now.

growleaves

If you look at places where it is widespread, France,Spain, Italy, New York, Belgium it is killing multiples of the deaths caused by seasonal illness in a much shorter timeframe

It also widespread in places where it kills less than the flu, i.e. the UK. Lombardy, Madrid, NYC aren't representative of the whole world.

It would be 150,000 death in a year compared to 28,000 if no restrictions. Thats a conservative number too.

What model are you working off of?

For the UK the Imperial College prediction was 510,000 deaths without mitigation measures and a third of that - lets say 150k approx - with mitigation measures.

The UK has used mitigation measures and the result is 15,000 deaths so far.

That's if you even believe in the measures which are unproven.

It has a mortality 20 times greater and is more infectious.

Morality rate is unknown. Infectiousness is unknown. Although virologists who have researched it already believe it is far less less than believed.

It has only peaked because of a lockdown btw.

Proof?

crossman47

declanflynn wrote: »

The virus was allowed to spread to a point where our health service could handle it, the government got it almost spot on, keeping the virus out was never a runner.

I think thats about right. They could have attempted a lockdown earlier but the virus would still have got in, especially as the North didn't have one. If they had, people would have been griping after a month (like now) and restrictions would then have to be eased. This would have given us a surge.

The situation in the nursing homes is bad but the first priority had to be containing nationally and ensuring hospitals could cope. If the hospitals were overrun then the situation would be bad for all, including nursing homes.

lawred2

jibber5000 wrote: »

Yet our death rate is nearly identical to the US.

118 per million US
116 per million Ireland

The way it's portrayed by the media here we're doing a brilliant job and trump is leading them off a cliff.

All absolute nonsense of course.

How are deaths being counted here compared to the US? Unless the exact same criteria are applied then that figure is not comparable.

shinzon

growleaves wrote: »

Proof?

That would be figures graphs briefings etc from the hse that's posted on this here very thread.

Shin

BattleCorp

declanflynn wrote: »

The virus was allowed to spread to a certain point.
We are well on top of it due to good government, people adhering to social distancing and some luck.

I'll respectfully disagree. If we could have kept the virus out, we would have.

I will agree that social distancing is helping control the spread of it.

growleaves

It has a mortality 20 times greater and is more infectious.

By the way if covid-19 has a mortality rate 20 times greater than the flu then, even discounting for greater infectiousness, it would kill 12.5 million people in a typical year.

So far the total deaths are at 161,000 after five months.

YFlyer

One of my conspiracy theory friends put a chart on his Facebook page that Yemen have zero deaths. I had to tell him that there have been no tests done in the country.

He was questioning my source. I'm a sheep....lol

Sam Russell

growleaves wrote: »

It sweeps through countries killing as many people as a seasonal illness.



Vandals? What's being vandalised?

Just look around you. Travel o the Dart and see the paint can 'artists' who think a large daub is a positive contribution to life.

stephenjmcd

ZX7R wrote: »

A different projects manager I work with is dealing with security for the vintners association, the day of being drunk in a pub will be gone, strict enforcement of existing intoxication acts will be inforced .
But to be fair this will be more so inforced in city's large towns.
Hopefully!

Cant argue with that, when I worked in a pub as a student we were always told whenever the person had enough stop serving them as the publican had a duty of responsibility, if the person staggered out the door and god forbid was hit by a car then the publican gets asked the questions as to why they kept serving someone who was clearly highly intoxicated.

It was probably an arse covering exercise but that's what we always did

gabeeg

declanflynn wrote: »

The virus was allowed to spread to a certain point.
We are well on top of it due to good government, people adhering to social distancing and some luck.

So what you're saying is the government intentionally let people die, but are still doing a good job.

Fascinating insight, Decky

gmisk

ChikiChiki wrote: »

She must be absolutely riddled. I doubt even Covid 19 would get up on that.

She is getting the clap as opposed to giving a clap for NHS workers

jibber5000

Drumpot wrote: »

The USA barely started their lockdown and trump was talking about opening up again. Allowing church and mass groups to merge onto beaches is retarded and is not vital to keep an economy going.

USA is richer then Ireland, so how come we could come up with at least 3 month financial strategy to help most people/families and the USA can’t? It’s not that they can’t, its that they won’t because of political ideals.

In terms of people stuck at home, mental health issues can be addressed. I’ve suffered them myself but there are a lot of online supports. This is a red herring argument on its own.

Eventually with more knowledge and a better way of handling this and possibly down to necessity, we will have to lower restrictions. But the USA has no strategy , it’s a headless chicken throw crap at a wall and see what sticks approach with the economy’s demands overriding human safety. That on its own is a horrible indictment of that country.

This is from the last recession when unemployment was roughly half what it is.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4880023/

When you're multiplying this by tens of millions it's a massive issue.

Dr Fauci appears to be a man of honour and integrity.

He stated whenever he asked trump to place restrictions he agreed immediately. If he had such a massive issue with trumps staggered opening you don't think he'd be saying it on one of his numerous tv appearances?

All these critics are placing their own extensive public health knowledge above Dr Fauci.

lawred2

growleaves wrote: »

By the way if covid-19 has a mortality rate 20 times greater than the flu then, even discounting for greater infectiousness, it would kill 12.5 million people in a typical year.

So far the total deaths are at 161,000 after five months.

The flu is in every corner of the globe and evolves every year.

C19 doesn't have that spread yet. It's a novel virus.

You can't compare total death counts yet.

crossman47

gabeeg wrote: »

So what you're saying is the government intentionally let people die, but are still doing a good job.

Fascinating insight, Decky

Hes not saying that as I see it. They knew deaths were inevitable and they sought to minimise them.

BattleCorp

growleaves wrote: »

By the way if covid-19 has a mortality rate 20 times greater than the flu then, even discounting for greater infectiousness, it would kill 12.5 million people in a typical year.

So far the total deaths are at 161,000 after five months.

You can't compare COVID-19 and the flu. Economies aren't shut down to deal with the flu.

So far we have had 161,000 deaths with extreme social distancing measures in place. Do you not acknowledge that the death rate would be far higher if we took no social distancing/lockdown measures?