Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

jibber5000

lawred2 wrote: »

How are deaths being counted here compared to the US? Unless the exact same criteria are applied then that figure is not comparable.

Broadly the same. Nursing homes are counted in both countries not like the UK.

In Ireland we are undercounting by a small number.
Upto now have been using Pcr testing. It has sensitivity of 70%. Some patients who died had negative Pcr tests despite being highly likely to have covid. False negatives.

In America they count those with a high clinical probability as positive as well as those who die of other cause but are covid positive ie a stroke.

So although these examples are definitely small do indicate that we're very slightly under reporting and they're slightly over reporting.

coastwatch

growleaves wrote: »

By the way if covid-19 has a mortality rate 20 times greater than the flu then, even discounting for greater infectiousness, it would kill 12.5 million people in a typical year.

So far the total deaths are at 161,000 after five months.

Thats because everybody is stuck at home trying not to catch it.

crossman47

jibber5000 wrote: »

Broadly the same. Nursing homes are counted in both countries not like the UK.

In Ireland we are probably undercounting by circa 5%. Upto now have been using Pcr testing. A number of patients who have died did so with negative PCt

Not sure about that https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/covid-19-deaths-recorded-in-nursing-homes-crosses-2k/ar-BB12sSWi

Sam Russell

growleaves wrote: »

By the way if covid-19 has a mortality rate 20 times greater than the flu then, even discounting for greater infectiousness, it would kill 12.5 million people in a typical year.

So far the total deaths are at 161,000 after five months.

A lot of countries are not testing sufficiently to identify all deaths due to Covid.

Also, most countries are selective in the deaths they count as Covid deaths. The UK does not include deaths in care homes and only test in hospitals. Our care home deaths are close to 50% of all deaths and we are now concentrating on those, yet UK deaths are 2.5 times ours on a per capita basis yet do not include care home.

Per capita deaths is not a valid metric, by the way.

NegativeCreep

https://www.breakingnews.ie/world/broadways-nick-cordero-to-have-leg-amputated-after-coronavirus-complications-994821.html

Broadway actor to lose his leg due to coronavirus complications. This is terrible. It’s also the first I’ve heard of any amputations due to the virus. Has this happened before?

Monitor1985

This might have been asked before, but this forum is moving so quick it's hard to keep up.

Has our backlog now been cleared?

And are all the tests now coming back from Germany as up to date with the confirmed cases in Irish labs?

So basically, at which point can we start taking Irish confirmed and German confirmed cases as one figure?

Or are the cases still coming back from the German labs still part of the backlog?

Drumpot

jibber5000 wrote: »

This is from the last recession when unemployment was roughly half what it is.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4880023/

When you're multiplying this by tens of millions it's a massive issue.

Dr Fauci appears to be a man of honour and integrity.

He stated whenever he asked trump to place restrictions he agreed immediately. If he had such a massive issue with trumps staggered opening you don't think he'd be saying it on one of his numerous tv appearances?

All these critics are placing their own extensive public health knowledge above Dr Fauci.

You didn’t address anything I said at all. This seems to be a tactic with those defending Trump, just keep moving to different things until people give up discussion, which I will admit I’m close to at this stage.

Donald Trump sacks those who disagree with him, bullies his staff and admitted that he will give more support to states that show him some sort of respect.

Before briefings specialists have to praise trump simply to massage his ego before quite often saying the exact opposite to what the president said. Selectively quoting Fauci, who does appear to be an honorable man navigating a relationship with a dishonourable president , is disingenuous. There is more then enough evidence to show that Trump is a disaster to work for and is incapable of doing the right thing for the right reason because any decision he makes or things he say are about self promotion on some capacity.

I can’t fathom how anybody could fail to see this.

wakka12

growleaves wrote: »

It also widespread in places where it kills less than the flu, i.e. the UK. Lombardy, Madrid, NYC aren't representative of the whole world.



What model are you working off of?

For the UK the Imperial College prediction was 510,000 deaths without mitigation measures and a third of that - lets say 150k approx - with mitigation measures.

The UK has used mitigation measures and the result is 15,000 deaths so far.

That's if you even believe in the measures which are unproven.



Morality rate is unknown. Infectiousness is unknown. Although virologists who have researched it already believe it is far less less than believed.



Proof?

You are not considering the unreported death toll, UK has up to 50% unreported deaths, going off the fact that in Ireland 50% of deaths occurred at home and in nursing homes. So UK may have over 31,000 deaths currently, already far more than the 28,000 figure you used. And 99% of these covid deaths occurred within the last FOUR weeks, not a whole year.

So the places where we know it is definitely widespread such as Lombardy, NYC, Madrid, London, Blegium and killing multiples of the seasonal flu averages are not representative of the damage the disease can cause in your opinion. And an entirely theoretically unnoticed/unknown/unverified spread of COVID throughout much of the rest of the world may be representative in your mind, and a valid comparison to the seasonal flu deaths which occur on a globally spread scale over an entire year ? That is a pretty awful argument

YOure asking somebody else for proof when youre trying to claim COVID is killing less people than seasonal flu, when it is just so utterly false

jibber5000

crossman47 wrote: »

Not sure about that https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/covid-19-deaths-recorded-in-nursing-homes-crosses-2k/ar-BB12sSWi

I took that as meaning they had gone into the final data but they did not have the indivialised data for the nursing home figures?

declanflynn

gabeeg wrote: »

So what you're saying is the government intentionally let people die, but are still doing a good job.

Fascinating insight, Decky

No, they tried to save everyone that's why they took over the private hospitals, ordered plane loads of ppe, introduced lockdown and a host of other measures, can you tell me which western countries have zero deaths?

growleaves

BattleCorp wrote: »

You can't compare COVID-19 and the flu. Economies aren't shut down to deal with the flu.

This is circular logic. Shutting down the economy doesn't prove that this coronavirus is deadlier than other diseases. You could shut down the economy over a bad flu if you wanted to. Or not.

So far we have had 161,000 deaths with extreme social distancing measures in place. Do you not acknowledge that the death rate would be far higher if we took no social distancing/lockdown measures?

Higher perhaps. I have an issue with the far part.

Since the projections of deaths with mitigation measures turned out to be inflated, then projections of deaths without mitigation measures should not be taken at face value.

I would like to see some serious research comparing un-locked-down states - Sweden, Belarus, Iowa, South Dakota, Taiwan - with locked down states for a way to gauge how effective lockdown is.

In the past there were no lockdowns for pandemics which killed 1 million, 2 million and more.

podgeandrodge

gmisk wrote: »

She is getting the clap as opposed to giving a clap for NHS workers

Getting the clap, or giving it?

coastwatch

NegativeCreep wrote: »

https://www.breakingnews.ie/world/broadways-nick-cordero-to-have-leg-amputated-after-coronavirus-complications-994821.html

Broadway actor to lose his leg due to coronavirus complications. This is terrible. It’s also the first I’ve heard of any amputations due to the virus. Has this happened before?

I see he was on an ECMO machine, which is a life support machine that does the work of the lungs and heart. I think thats where the complications came from.

podgeandrodge

Interesting article. Not conspiracy theory. Just potential possibilities.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-department-cables-warned-safety-issues-wuhan-lab-studying-bat-coronaviruses/

Mic 1972

NegativeCreep wrote: »

https://www.breakingnews.ie/world/broadways-nick-cordero-to-have-leg-amputated-after-coronavirus-complications-994821.html

Broadway actor to lose his leg due to coronavirus complications. This is terrible. It’s also the first I’ve heard of any amputations due to the virus. Has this happened before?

he is only 40 year old :-(

jibber5000

Drumpot wrote: »

You didn’t address anything I said at all. This seems to be a tactic with those defending Trump, just keep moving to different things until people give up discussion, which I will admit I’m close to at this stage.

Donald Trump sacks those who disagree with him, bullies his staff and admitted that he will give more support to states that show him some sort of respect.

Before briefings specialists have to praise trump simply to massage his ego before quite often saying the exact opposite to what the president said. Selectively quoting Fauci, who is an honorable man navigating a relationship with a dishonourable president , is disingenuous. There is more then enough evidence to show that Trump is a disaster to work for and is incapable of doing the right thing for the right reason because any decision he makes or things he say are about self promotion on some capacity.

I can’t fathom how anybody could fail to see this.

CBS tried to place words in Faucis mouth and he shot them down?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/fauci-shoots-down-cbs-reporter-trying-to-drive-wedge-between-him-and-trump%3f_amp=true

I'm quoting his head of public health. He makes the recommendations. I've already proven Trump follows them. You've gone off topic with no evidence because you dislike Trump.
Stick to the question at hand and show me proof where Trump overruled his public health experts?

growleaves

wakka12,

Flu deaths are also packed into short stints.

We went over this last week remember? The important thing is the length of the epidemic. If we are peaking or have peaked then there aren't going to be tens of millions of corpses with or without economic embargoes.

Danzy

growleaves wrote: »

Nope. Even with inflated figures there's no hiding the reality:

A few years ago influenza killed 28,000 in the UK. Coronavirus deaths are at 15,000.

If the disease has peaked, which many epidemologists seem to think (including the 'official' ones), then its just an ordinary coronavirus like other coronaviruses.

If you were to take a bad flu year which killed 650,000 globally (upper end of the spectrum) and follow it breathlessly day by day, look at cases and deaths every day, focus on deaths from lack of ICU capacity, which does happen, the emotional result would be the same.

You might not be aware but that is with a tight lockdown.

It would not be the same, 650k is not a lot of dead, it's a blip.

Paddygreen

Duke of Url wrote: »

Pubs and restaurants could open tomorrow. I think you will find that the people eager for these places to open will find that most of their friends will decline invitations to meet up in the pub or go for dinner.

Nonsense, I think the opposite. If pubs were opened tomorrow it would be like the world cup, st Stephens day and a ZZ top concert all rolled into one.

Drumpot

jibber5000 wrote: »

CBS tried to place words in Faucis mouth and he shot them down?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/fauci-shoots-down-cbs-reporter-trying-to-drive-wedge-between-him-and-trump%3f_amp=true

I'm quoting his head of public health. He makes the recommendations. I've already proven Trump follows them. You've gone off topic with no evidence because you dislike Trump.
Stick to the question at hand and show me proof where Trump overruled his public health experts?

Stick to the questions? Lol, you didn’t answer anything I’ve said, try practising what you preached. You’ve shifted goal posts every post you’ve made.... I will leave it there as there is no reward in this Sort of discussion, I despise Trump (that doesn’t make points on his awful handling on this irrelevant) but can only deal in logic and there is none when defending him is concerned, only obfuscation of facts and information dumping that proves nothing.

Mic 1972

growleaves wrote: »

This is circular logic. Shutting down the economy doesn't prove that this coronavirus is deadlier than other diseases. You should shut down the economy over a bad flu if you wanted to. Or not.



Higher perhaps. I have an issue with the far part.

Since the projections of deaths with mitigation measures turned out to be inflated, then projections of deaths without mitigation measures should not be taken at face value.

I would like to see some serious research comparing un-locked-down states - Sweden, Belarus, Iowa, South Dakota, Taiwan - with locked down states for a way to gauge how effective lockdown is.

In the past there were no lockdowns for pandemics which killed 1 million, 2 million and more.

A lot of people living in no-lock-down countries are still isolating themselves and avoiding public places for their own safety. There is no place that can be used as a reference of what happens without lock down

Mic 1972

Paddygreen wrote: »

Nonsense, I think the opposite. If pubs were opened tomorrow it would be like the world cup, st Stephens day and a ZZ top concert all rolled into one.

young people maybe, but anyone who has concerns about their health and their families would steer clear

growleaves

You might not be aware but that is with a tight lockdown.

I was wondering why town seemed so quiet on a Saturday.

timsey tiger

Is there any graph showing just the hospital deaths in Ireland. I guess these would be reported on a same day or next day at worst basis, so should give a better idea of how much deaths are dropping since the peak. If we have passed the peak, that is.

jibber5000

Drumpot wrote: »

Stick to the questions? Lol, you didn’t answer anything I’ve said, try practising what you preached. You’ve shifted goal posts every post you’ve made.... I will leave it there as there is no reward in this Sort of discussion, I despise Trump (that doesn’t make points on his awful handling on this irrelevant) but can only deal in logic and there is none when defending him is concerned, only obfuscation of facts and information dumping that proves nothing.

But everything you talked about in your original post was premised on the fact that he goes off on solo runs and is a nightmare to work with.

Fauci could have said nothing but stood up and defended Trump.

Trumps policy I've proven has been governed by Public health experts. Everything else you talked about was white noise in the grand scheme of things.

You've let your personal feelings get in the way of the facts.

growleaves

A lot of people living in no-lock-down countries are still isolating themselves and avoiding public places for their own safety. There is no place that can be used as a reference of what happens without lock down

In that case the efficacy of lockdown isn't falsifiable - and therefore scientifically no can claim it is effective, and no honest person would even attempt to.

Its in the realm of metaphysical assumptions rather than science.

bodhrandude

Any word on a rescheduled gig for Nick Mason's Saucerful of Secrets which is supposed to be happening at the Convention Centre in Dublin in ten days time.

wadacrack

Mic 1972 wrote: »

young people maybe, but anyone who has concerns about their health and their families would steer clear

Young people will be too immature to realize the possible implications. Pubs would be packed and it would be chaos. Some older people would take their chances too. Their probably should be survey's on this

gabeeg

declanflynn wrote: »

No, they tried to save everyone that's why they took over the private hospitals, ordered plane loads of ppe, introduced lockdown and a host of other measures, can you tell me which western countries have zero deaths?

I'm not criticising the gov here. I'm criticising your point.

You said they allowed the virus to spread to an extent before dealing with it. I'm telling you that this would mean they allowed for people to die unnecessarily.

So if you're here to praise their actions perhaps you should revise how you're doing it, because currently you're praising them whilst also saying they allowed people to die.

coastwatch

Monitor1985 wrote: »

This might have been asked before, but this forum is moving so quick it's hard to keep up.

Has our backlog now been cleared?

And are all the tests now coming back from Germany as up to date with the confirmed cases in Irish labs?

So basically, at which point can we start taking Irish confirmed and German confirmed cases as one figure?

Or are the cases still coming back from the German labs still part of the backlog?

According the HSE briefing today, the backlog has been cleared, so the testing being done by the German lab will now be for current testing.