Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

Jim_Hodge

Hobgoblin11 wrote: »

This doesn’t make sense

It makes perfect sense. We bought the health service many valuable days and kept ICU numbers down. We eased ourselves to 15000 cases rather than allowing it swamp us.

Achasanai

Speakerboxx wrote: »

Not everyone is adhering to the measures still.

You'll never have complete adherence to the measures. The vast majority of people are, and that's what's driving the numbers in the way we want them to go.

MD1990

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

To posters saying "lift the restrictions" because of the curve, they have a contradictory position.

The only reason the curve is as it is and not a frightening ascent of cases and tragedies is because of the very measures in place.

If we maintain the course there is a much higher chance of some semblance of normality returning by the end of 2020.

Otherwise we face rolling lock downs which harm everyone.

Are you Simon Harris? :pac:

Speakerboxx

Speakerboxx wrote: »

Why are numbers still high? We are in lockdown since March and numbers still staying high enough. Im am worried tbh. If our numbers arent dropping significantly this week i think its game over.

Imagine the numbers with no restrictions

nacho libre

domrush wrote: »

Pure conjecture on your part at the same time however

I don't have an end of days mentality about this virus, but being realistic i think he is right about major festivals and sporting events, unless we see a vaccine or an effective treatment, i don't see how we can allow said events to happen during the summer. Also, as the infamous video from Temple Bar shows social distancing is nigh on impossible in a busy pub. Even if you were to restrict numbers to 50 to 100 per pub, it's still going to be hard to have adequate social distancing. So either way pubs will only be open when we don't have to live with the virus- i.e when a vaccine or an effective treatment is in play.

FishOnABike

ShineOn7 wrote: »

A virus with a R0 of 2 is still an absolute disaster over time exponentially

Last I checked, from a statement from our government, it's at 0.7 here. Which is where it needs to stay. An R0 of 1 and below can be managed, an R0 of 2 or more and it's back to lockdown.

Or, as we have in Ireland, a "lockdown"

It's a lot more sensitive than that. I haven't seen the sane stated for Ireland but Angela Merkel indicated a R0 of 1.1 would see Germany's hospitals overwhelmed by October, 1.2 in July and 1.3 in June.

A R0 of anything above 1 would mean restrictions have to tightened up.

If we are currently at a R0 of 0.7 we should see numbers fall over a few weeks but we are only here because of the current level of restrictions. Any relaxation will have to be very gradual and very closely monitored to ensure we keep the R0 below 1 and keep the numbers from growing again.

keynes

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

To posters saying "lift the restrictions" because of the curve, they have a contradictory position.

The only reason the curve is as it is and not a frightening ascent of cases and tragedies is because of the very measures in place.

If we maintain the course there is a much higher chance of some semblance of normality returning by the end of 2020.

Otherwise we face rolling lock downs which harm everyone.

Social distancing together with the banning of all events like sports gatherings will go a long way to mitigating the virus. It is surely impossible to eliminate it. We will have flights coming in from all over the world come July (as restrictions are eased elsewhere), which will defeat the point of any stringent lockdown anyway

JP Liz V1

I thought Ireland's Call had brought back 1,000 nurses here to work but Paul Reid had a very low number of new nurses

Turtwig

FishOnABike wrote: »

It's a lot more sensitive than that. I haven't seen the sane stated for Ireland but Angela Merkel indicated a R0 of 1.1 would see Germany's hospitals overwhelmed by October, 1.2 in July and 1.3 in June.

A R0 of anything above 1 would mean restrictions have to tightened up.

If we are currently at a R0 of 0.7 we should see numbers fall over a few weeks but we are only here because of the current level of restrictions. Any relaxation will have to be very gradual and very closely monitored to ensure we keep the R0 below 1 and keep the numbers from growing again.

Germany have a higher ICU capacity than us too. So presumably we're even more sensitive to miniscule changes in the reproductive rate.

BorneTobyWilde

Spanish Flu lasted 3 years, I see the same here . Only hope is a cure.

Speakerboxx

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Imagine the numbers with no restrictions

Well our government had to act. They had no chocie. Our health system was always a shambles and we be able to deal with nothing.

An Ciarraioch

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

It would be great if that's true but one day, and a Sunday at that, doesn't make a trend.

Well, two days really (44>41>39), but yes, that would need to continue for a week to become a real trend.

smelly sock

Positive enough numbers again today. We dont seem to be heading for the scenarios some on here had relished.

Strazdas

I'm a bit worried about the talk of cancelling all sports in 2020.

I understand the need for it but it would probably put a huge number of clubs in Ireland out of existence - people are nearly forgetting that clubs are businesses entirely dependent on revenue to stay afloat. With a nine month or longer shutdown, they will cease to exist (at the end of the shutdown, they won't have any staff or players).

stephenjmcd

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Spanish Flu lasted 3 years, I see the same here . Only hope is a cure.

Well no it's not. A vaccine is far from certain to work, in the short to medium term finding an effective treatment would certainly be a start. Vaccine is at least a year away at the very best even if an effective one is found.

Rob A. Bank

The UK curve is topping the Italian infection curve, without counting their care home deaths !

Are there thermal cameras at our Airports and seaports plus supervised 14 day quarantine for arrivals from abroad yet ?

Having the majority here religiously observing the 2km and distancing rules, while at the same time allowing possible 'Typhoid Mary' superspreaders in unchecked, seems like a complete exercise in futility.

wadacrack

ZX7R wrote: »

There was never an ability to clear the disease.
From the outset we have been told by every medical professional that we will have to live along side the virus.

If the R0 is below 1.0 it can be. Your right about medical professors tho, but even they admit we don't reallly know how this virus will behave long term. It worth the effort to keep suppression this and maybe getting lucky with a vaccine being available quickly.

Speakerboxx

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Well, two days really (44>41>39), but yes, that would need to continue for a week to become a real trend.

And tomorrow again it could be 44>41>39 <43 the trends are up and down. There isnt a proper scale of things.

stephenjmcd

Strazdas wrote: »

I'm a bit worried about the talk of cancelling all sports in 2020.

I understand the need for it but it would probably put a huge number of clubs in Ireland out of existence - people are nearly forgetting that clubs are businesses entirely dependent on revenue to stay afloat. With a nine month or longer shutdown, they will cease to exist (at the end of the shutdown, they won't have any staff or players).

Yup I love going to my Airtricity league games every Friday night but if clubs cant have games at some point then there wont be a league to come back to. Clubs will just go to the wall

ZX7R

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

I thought Ireland's Call had brought back 1,000 nurses here to work but Paul Reid had a very low number of new nurses

Many of the medical staff that returned had contacted the virus in the country they returned from.
Most likely be only coming out of quarantine now regardless if they had it or not

BorneTobyWilde

WHy are UK acting like China and doctoring the figures.

An Ciarraioch

Strazdas wrote: »

I'm a bit worried about the talk of cancelling all sports in 2020.

I understand the need for it but it would probably put a huge number of clubs in Ireland out of existence - people are nearly forgetting that clubs are businesses entirely dependent on revenue to stay afloat. With a nine month or longer shutdown, they will cease to exist (at the end of the shutdown, they won't have any staff or players).

Perhaps, but even your average League of Ireland club can draw crowds of anywhere between 500 and 5,000 people, so hard to see how such gatherings can safely interact before a vaccine is tested and licenced.

Speakerboxx

Strazdas wrote: »

I'm a bit worried about the talk of cancelling all sports in 2020.

I understand the need for it but it would probably put a huge number of clubs in Ireland out of existence - people are nearly forgetting that clubs are businesses entirely dependent on revenue to stay afloat. With a nine month or longer shutdown, they will cease to exist (at the end of the shutdown, they won't have any staff or players).

The GAA have enough money. They can help the clubs.

fullstop

Hobgoblin11 wrote: »

Looks like deaths peaked in Ireland yesterday

Even though they were higher the day before? :rolleyes:

Speakerboxx

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

WHy are UK acting like China and doctoring the figures.

Insecurities it seems and the fact that they know they have messd up. All big and powerful countries wont give in to the fact taht they are in a crisis.

wadacrack

Strazdas wrote: »

I'm a bit worried about the talk of cancelling all sports in 2020.

I understand the need for it but it would probably put a huge number of clubs in Ireland out of existence - people are nearly forgetting that clubs are businesses entirely dependent on revenue to stay afloat. With a nine month or longer shutdown, they will cease to exist (at the end of the shutdown, they won't have any staff or players).

I am also extremely worried about this. They don't have to a business for them to matter. Yes their are more serious worries also but I get the impression its not ok to be missing sports for certain people.

Strazdas

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Yup I love going to my Airtricity league games every Friday night but if clubs cant have games at some point then there wont be a league to come back to. Clubs will just go to the wall

It's a very easy thing to say "there won't be any more sports in Ireland in 2020" but I'm not sure people are even thinking through the consequences of this. When the go ahead is given to resume sports, many clubs will no longer even exist.

timsey tiger

frillyleaf wrote: »

Why is RTE so focused on uk ?

Easy access to plenty of cheap content to fill up space and hide the fact that their grossly overpaid don't generate much original content.

Alf Veedersane

Speakerboxx wrote: »

And tomorrow again it could be 44>41>39 <43 the trends are up and down. There isnt a proper scale of things.

It's likely they will bounce around at that level for a bit even if we're at/around the peak. It's not going to constantly drop every day. Even when the trend is a downward one, there is going to be days where the deaths are higher than the previous day. Not least because the deaths reported in the daily briefings aren't deaths solely from the previous 24 hours

flazio

So, you reckon if a club or business gets closed down, that it would be absolutely impossible for them to be set up again?