Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

Refractions

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Yup I love going to my Airtricity league games every Friday night but if clubs cant have games at some point then there wont be a league to come back to. Clubs will just go to the wall

The government aren't going to let all the clubs go to the wall. In the grand scheme of things it wont cost that much to prop them up for a while.

What Username Guidelines

My neighbour who is a garda, whose wife is an ICU nurse, spent last night in a friends house, with all their kids, the other dad works in a hospice.

Simon Harris keeps banging on about how the next two weeks are important, I’ve been on these threads for months, I know what’s coming, but his messaging is giving the impression that in two weeks we’ve won and that’s it. Like staying at home during a red warning until the storm just passes over and hey presto, let’s get back to it.

I’m not confident tbh.

giveitholly

Refractions wrote: »

The government aren't going to let all the clubs go to the wall. In the grand scheme of things it wont cost that much to prop them up for a while.

But how can the government prop up everything for a while,will they prop up publicans,hoteliers,hairdressers? The list could go on and on

stephenjmcd

Refractions wrote: »

The government aren't going to let all the clubs go to the wall. In the grand scheme of things it wont cost that much to prop them up for a while.

We'll soon see but if they do that for this one example they've to do it for every business, be it sporting, tourism whatever. The bill alone will be enormous.

All we can do is wait and see what they come up with.

BanditLuke

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Yup I love going to my Airtricity league games every Friday night but if clubs cant have games at some point then there wont be a league to come back to. Clubs will just go to the wall

A few leagues will have the same problem. Teams in Scotland will fold also. Joining forces and creating a new league might not be a bad idea tbh when this is over.

growleaves

The restrictions can only work if they last forever or until an effective vaccine is provided.

If that's actually the case then the restrictions ought to be lifted this second.

JP Liz V1

What house parties and street parties was Simon Harris talking about, I thought we were doing good adhering to restrictions lockdown

MD1990

jackboy wrote: »

3 to 4 months is extremely optimistic for a drug treatment. Next year would be more realistic. If a treatment is developed it likely would not work very well for the elderly patients who have other serious illnesses.

An anti body test won’t help us as the restrictions have likely severely dampened the infection rate in Ireland. So a small amount of people may be shown to have antibodies. Again, an antibody test will not significantly help the at risk groups.

These solutions are basically just variations of the herd immunity approach.

Well is it quite likely it may be out by then
https://www.ft.com/content/c59a385f-62e1-42a2-b8ac-2ecb44305e4e

50% of people at least develop no symptoms.
Their is possibly millions who had the virus without knowing.

Immune people will be back to work.

What u think will happen. Everyone stays inside for 9 months or until a vaccine.

Some people are not thinking this through. That is unsustainable.
in 2-4 months restrictions will have to start being lifted. People will go insane.

MD1990

I think the league of ireland will start off as an amateur league with completely different squads if it isnt back sometime this year or even longer.

Goverment have never helped any of the clubs & they'll help the GAA & Rugby before the league too.

Professor Moriarty

MD1990 wrote: »

Well is it quite likely it may be out by then
https://www.ft.com/content/c59a385f-62e1-42a2-b8ac-2ecb44305e4e

50% of people at least develop no symptoms.
Their is possibly millions who had the virus without knowing.

Immune people will be back to work.

What u think will happen. Everyone stays inside for 9 months or until a vaccine.

Some people are not thinking this through. That is unsustainable.
in 2-4 months restrictions will have to start being lifted. People will go insane.

Unfortunately, to date, there is no evidence that people develop immunity having recovered from Covid-19.

Cork Boy 53

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

What house parties and street parties was Simon Harris talking about, I thought we were doing good adhering to restrictions lockdown

One of my neighbours held a house party last night so it`s certainly not true that everyone is obeying the rules.

speckle

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I think this year's GAA championship winner should be decided by pulling County names out of the Sam Magiure.
'....and the winner is.. MAY.... OH, ****e, I've dropped the ticket, hang on I'll dig in for it again... the winner is... DUBLIN!!!

I was thinking maybe Sam goes to the county who gets to zero cases first!

expectationlost

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

My neighbour who is a garda, whose wife is an ICU nurse, spent last night in a friends house, with all their kids, the other dad works in a hospice.

Simon Harris keeps banging on about how the next two weeks are important, I’ve been on these threads for months, I know what’s coming, but his messaging is giving the impression that in two weeks we’ve won and that’s it. Like staying at home during a red warning until the storm just passes over and hey presto, let’s get back to it.

I’m not confident tbh.

Simon Harris: 'I can't see people in packed pubs again as long as this virus is with us' buff.ly/2XPLNv4

jackboy

MD1990 wrote: »

What u think will happen. Everyone stays inside for 9 months or until a vaccine.

Some people are not thinking this through. That is unsustainable.
in 2-4 months restrictions will have to start being lifted. People will go insane.

I agree with this. There is no long term plan. Everything we are doing is to slow down the virus until an effective treatment or vaccine is available. We are unlikely to get these this year.

People will go mad but removing the restrictions now will have the same impact as never having restrictions.

JanuarySnowstor

Surely if there was a total lockdown on everything for 2 weeks the virus would disappear? Half measures are working on slowing it but as Prof Mcconkey said few days back let's now have a total lockdown for 2 weeks and it should be gone

Arghus

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Surely if there was a total lockdown on everything for 2 weeks the virus would disappear? Half measures are working on slowing it but as Prof Mcconkey said few days back let's now have a total lockdown for 2 weeks and it should be gone

You'd need two full incubation periods to be sure, so about 28 days to a month.

Azatadine

Arghus wrote: »

You'd need two full incubation periods to be sure, so about 28 days to a month.

Plus close down flights, shipping etc....

paddythere

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

What house parties and street parties was Simon Harris talking about, I thought we were doing good adhering to restrictions lockdown

You dont think there has been any house parties in the country in the last few weeks? I know of at least 2 in my small estate that were eventually ended by the Gardai

CucaFace

MD1990 wrote: »

Well is it quite likely it may be out by then
https://www.ft.com/content/c59a385f-62e1-42a2-b8ac-2ecb44305e4e

50% of people at least develop no symptoms.
Their is possibly millions who had the virus without knowing.

Immune people will be back to work.

What u think will happen. Everyone stays inside for 9 months or until a vaccine.

Some people are not thinking this through. That is unsustainable.
in 2-4 months restrictions will have to start being lifted. People will go insane.

I agree.



First we need a trustworthy antibody test to see how many people in this country actually got it. We really have very little data from the general population which is a big issue.



Also i can't see why one of these anti viral drugs like remdesivir (which so far seems like the most likely one)can't be used in the next 2 months to help with the serious cases?



Hopefully antibody testing will show this has been far more prevalent in the community then known which would mean its actually far less dangerous then is currently thought and if then we have an anti viral drug that works in most serious cases then the death rate should be down to an acceptable rate for life to start going back to normality hopefully in the short to medium term.

speckle

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Surely if there was a total lockdown on everything for 2 weeks the virus would disappear? Half measures are working on slowing it but as Prof Mcconkey said few days back let's now have a total lockdown for 2 weeks and it should be gone

would possibly help alot, but you may have an asymtomatic person who passes on say day 10 to someone else in the household and that person will be postive day 15.

MD1990

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Unfortunately, to date, there is no evidence that people develop immunity having recovered from Covid-19.

there is some evidence there is immunity

in Netherlands 3% of 10.000 had anti bodies & were immune from the virus
convert that to their population & it is over 500,000 immune to the virus

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2w7F_hzqIhM&t=1161s


maybe some people dont have immunity but the majority do seem to become immune

keynes

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Surely if there was a total lockdown on everything for 2 weeks the virus would disappear? Half measures are working on slowing it but as Prof Mcconkey said few days back let's now have a total lockdown for 2 weeks and it should be gone

As highlighted by the strawberry picker incident, our borders are still wide open. All it takes is one to start the entire seeding process again.

Cork Boy 53

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Surely if there was a total lockdown on everything for 2 weeks the virus would disappear? Half measures are working on slowing it but as Prof Mcconkey said few days back let's now have a total lockdown for 2 weeks and it should be gone

Have you got evidence to back that up? I very much doubt that he stated the virus would be gone in 2 weeks regardless of how strict a lockdown was implemented.

autumnbelle

I can’t see how restrictions can be lifted and us not back to square one

jackboy

jackboy wrote: »

I agree with this. There is no long term plan. Everything we are doing is to slow down the virus until an effective treatment or vaccine is available. We are unlikely to get these this year.

People will go mad but removing the restrictions now will have the same impact as never having restrictions.

I’m wondering what is their forward thinking behind the scenes. If/when they release us from lockdown and the cases and deaths shoot up, will they turn around and say “the situation is regrettable, but quite frankly people were getting restless and the status quo was unquestionably unsustainable”.

paddythere

Arghus wrote: »

You'd need two full incubation periods to be sure, so about 28 days to a month.

Prof McConkey said that when it was far too late to realistically do it.. We should have done it once the first couple of cases arrived in Ireland, similar to New Zealand. It has spread too much now for a full lockdown to work, too many people have it who don't even know it and are out at the supermarket passing it on to someone or passing it on to their children who are being let out to play with other children who then pass it on to their own family

BENDYBINN

expectationlost wrote: »

Simon Harris: 'I can't see people in packed pubs again as long as this virus is with us' buff.ly/2XPLNv4

Important word there is”packed”.......

trapp

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Surely if there was a total lockdown on everything for 2 weeks the virus would disappear? Half measures are working on slowing it but as Prof Mcconkey said few days back let's now have a total lockdown for 2 weeks and it should be gone

In theory yes but people still need to enter and leave the country.

Food suppliers, medical experts and I'm sure many others.

Also Northern Ireland.

Professor Moriarty

MD1990 wrote: »

there is some evidence there is immunity

in Netherlands 3% of 10.000 had anti bodies & were immune from the virus
convert that to their population & it is over 500,000 immune to the virus

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2w7F_hzqIhM&t=1161s


maybe some people dont have immunity but the majority do seem to become immune

From the WHO yesterday:

The WHO's top emergency expert Mike Ryan said that even if antibodies were effective there was little sign that large numbers of people had developed them and were beginning to offer so-called "herd immunity" to the broader population.

"A lot of preliminary information coming to us right now would suggest quite a low percentage of population have seroconverted (to produce antibodies)," Mr Ryan said.

"The expectation that ... the majority in society may have developed antibodies, the general evidence is pointing against that, so it may not solve the problem of governments."

jackboy

Deleted User wrote: »

I’m wondering what is their forward thinking behind the scenes. If/when they release us from lockdown and the cases and deaths shoot up, will they turn around and say “the situation is regrettable, but quite frankly people were getting restless and the status quo was unquestionably unsustainable”.

I think we will be very cautious about removing the restrictions. We will first see how the other countries get on that have removed restrictions before us.

It is likely that some restrictions make little difference but others make a huge difference.