Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

briany

Deleted User wrote: »

I’m wondering what is their forward thinking behind the scenes. If/when they release us from lockdown and the cases and deaths shoot up, will they turn around and say “the situation is regrettable, but quite frankly people were getting restless and the status quo was unquestionably unsustainable”.

If cases and deaths shoot up after an easing of restrictions, then I expect there to be a civil war of thought throughout the country where one side is all about doing whatever it takes to save lives and the other is all about whatever it takes to save the economy.

One side will want the grandparents to live as long as possible and the other side will posit that the grandparents have had a good run. One side will say it's not just grandparents, and the other side will say yeah, but it is mainly grandparents.

autumnbelle

autumnbelle wrote: »

I can’t see how restrictions can be lifted and us not back to square one

I guess the hope is it's way more widespread and there are loads of asymptomatic people who will have immunity breaking the chains of infection.

That testing in Boston was good news. Nearly half of over 300 homeless people tested had it asymptomatically at the time and a week and half later, just one was hospitalised. If mass testing for both the virus and for antibodies from previously infected people are along those lines, then we won't be back at square one.

jackofalltrades

blade1 wrote: »

https://extra.ie/2020/04/19/news/irish-news/convoy-uk-travellers-curragh

This completely makes a mockery of UK and Irish governments and their respective police forces.
When people questioned this last week they were rounded on and told they were exaggerating and that it was "essential travel only".
Now look whats happening, absolutely taking the piss.

Strazdas

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Surely if there was a total lockdown on everything for 2 weeks the virus would disappear? Half measures are working on slowing it but as Prof Mcconkey said few days back let's now have a total lockdown for 2 weeks and it should be gone

I think you're misquoting him. He was talking about ramped up testing and contact tracing, along with quarantine for new arrivals......nothing about 'total lockdown'.

keynes

keynes wrote: »

As highlighted by the strawberry picker incident, our borders are still wide open. All it takes is one to start the entire seeding process again.

I’d rather they seeded strawberries than the virus

branie2

Deleted User wrote: »

I’d rather they seeded strawberries than the virus

Same here

MD1990

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

From the WHO yesterday:

The WHO's top emergency expert Mike Ryan said that even if antibodies were effective there was little sign that large numbers of people had developed them and were beginning to offer so-called "herd immunity" to the broader population.

"A lot of preliminary information coming to us right now would suggest quite a low percentage of population have seroconverted (to produce antibodies)," Mr Ryan said.

"The expectation that ... the majority in society may have developed antibodies, the general evidence is pointing against that, so it may not solve the problem of governments."

Yes this is why an anti body test is needed to see how many have had the virus.

BENDYBINN

BENDYBINN wrote: »

Important word there is”packed”.......

Pubs/nightclubs are way way down the pecking order for reopening. They are too hard to ensure social distancing and they are known to contribute to increased visits to A&E.

Professor Moriarty

MD1990 wrote: »

Yes this is why an anti body test is needed to see how many have had the virus.

I don't mean to be argumentative but, unfortunately, the WHO again:

Speaking at a news conference in Geneva, Dr Maria van Kerkhove said: "There are a lot of countries that are suggesting using rapid diagnostic serological tests to be able to capture what they think will be a measure of immunity.

"Right now, we have no evidence that the use of a serological test can show that an individual has immunity or is protected from reinfection."

She added: "These antibody tests will be able to measure that level of seroprevalence - that level of antibodies - but that does not mean that somebody with antibodies means that they are immune."

Dr van Kerkhove said it was "a good thing" that so many tests are being developed, but said they will need to be validated "so that we know what they say they attempt to measure they are actually measuring".

Her colleague Dr Michael Ryan said the antibody tests also raised ethical questions.

He said: "There are serious ethical issues around the use of such an approach and we need to address it very carefully, we also need to look at the length of protection that antibodies might give.

"You might have someone who believes they are seropositive (have been infected) and protected in a situation where they may be exposed and in fact they are susceptible to the disease."

Professor Moriarty

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

From the WHO yesterday:

The WHO's top emergency expert Mike Ryan said that even if antibodies were effective there was little sign that large numbers of people had developed them and were beginning to offer so-called "herd immunity" to the broader population.

"A lot of preliminary information coming to us right now would suggest quite a low percentage of population have seroconverted (to produce antibodies)," Mr Ryan said.

"The expectation that ... the majority in society may have developed antibodies, the general evidence is pointing against that, so it may not solve the problem of governments."

How do you defeat a virus if you haven't produced antibodies. If you have got sick from covid and recovered surely that shows your body has successfully fought if off.

jackofalltrades

jackofalltrades wrote: »

This completely makes a mockery of UK and Irish governments and their respective police forces.
When people questioned this last week they were rounded on and told they were exaggerating and that it was "essential travel only".
Now look whats happening, absolutely taking the piss.

Surely to goodness there are Gardaí at the ferry ports who look for the reason to travel. Somebody with a caravan is either in forbidden holiday mode or needs to account on why they are making the journey at this particular time (eg essential worker) or if they are returning to a specific Irish home location of returning from a job overseas.

Jim_Hodge

To get a baseline of how many people were infected with the novel coronavirus, Cuomo said the state would do the most aggressive antibody testing in the nation in the next week, using a random sample.

New York will test 2,000 people a day, or 14,000 per week, out of the 19 million residents in the state.

Have they a reliable antibody test nobody else knows about?

Gooey Looey

[Deleted User] wrote: »

How do you defeat a virus if you haven't produced antibodies. If you have got sick from covid and recovered surely that shows your body has successfully fought if off.

Like the cold? What if immunity doesn't last long?

Professor Moriarty

Deleted User wrote: »

How do you defeat a virus if you haven't produced antibodies. If you have got sick from covid and recovered surely that shows your body has successfully fought if off.

It does but there is no certainty that you won't get infected again.

caveat emptor

Sweden’s approach

https://twitter.com/clancyneil/status/1251904288483184642?s=21

keynes

autumnbelle wrote: »

I can’t see how restrictions can be lifted and us not back to square one

Sure, all else constant, lifting restrictions just puts us back to where we were in, say, February. But at least the hospitals are now prepared and more importantly the lifting will be accompanied by restrictions on social gatherings etc.

billybonkers

I see Harris said today that social or physical distancing will be in place until we find a cure or treatment and that's likely to be next year.

growleaves

It would be unusual for a respiratory disease to fail to give you immunity.

I'm not saying it can't happen but we're back to worst-case-scenario speculations.

The situation is unknown - therefore its possible that the worst and least likely scenario could play out. That is the terms in which we are discussing this.

Sober Crappy Chemis

billybonkers wrote: »

I see Harris said today that social or physical distancing will be in place until we find a cure or treatment and that's likely to be next year.

Good.

Danzy

caveat emptor wrote: »

Sweden’s approach

https://twitter.com/clancyneil/status/1251904288483184642?s=21

It's certainly a ballsy call.

branie2

Nearly time for a new thread, I think

New Home

growleaves wrote: »

It would be unusual for a respiratory disease to fail to give you immunity.

I'm not saying it can't happen but we're back to worst-case-scenario speculations.

The situation is unknown - therefore its possible that the worst and least likely scenario could play out. That is the terms in which we are discussing this.

Except that this isn't just a respiratory disease. That's what it looked like at the start, but there's increasing evidence that it badly affects many other organs in the body.

ElTel

Deleted User wrote: »

I’m wondering what is their forward thinking behind the scenes. If/when they release us from lockdown and the cases and deaths shoot up, will they turn around and say “the situation is regrettable, but quite frankly people were getting restless and the status quo was unquestionably unsustainable”.

Ah the spin! I don't mean to be flippant but that that type of statement after a spike would just give fuel for sensationalist journalism.

Put the responsibility on us. (similar to what Sweden is doing)

"Restrictions are being eased and now, you the people of Ireland are our front line. Our health care system is the last line of defence You all need to be responsible for you actions by obeying the social distancing rules that remain in place and mindful of people in high risk groups..."

Masks should be compulsory on public transport and anywhere else where people will be spending 10 mins (say) around people.

jackboy

billybonkers wrote: »

I see Harris said today that social or physical distancing will be in place until we find a cure or treatment and that's likely to be next year.

It will certainly change Ireland forever. Can’t see sweaty packed pubs coming back. Could this even be the end of Coppers? I think we will end up with continental style cafe bars with table service. Getting locked in a pub will be no more.

Some pubs will go out of business. A lot of the ones who could reopen will get out of the business and why sink more money in when such an event could happen at any time again.

This will have a huge impact on future decisions to start new businesses. People will be less likely to take the gamble.

I imagine outdoor cafes will be first social premises to open, which will be nice and timely for the summer. The seating will have to be spaced well, and restricted to small social groups. Also disposable cups might be appropriate at this time.

Eg I’m thinking of likes if Marley Park as anyone example, where there are two cafes with indoor and outdoor seating. They could increase the outdoor seating by placing tables with two chairs far apart in the lark and have hatch service from a few of the visiting takeaways and maybe table service from the cafes from a small menu selection. Ardgillen has a covered outdoor fog & owner cafe, which could open with restricted numbers. Some locations would be suited to this set up. Pubs with beer gardens could take reservations for lunches for couples etc. The county councils in general could facilitate space to be made available for social distance outdoor sheltered cafes to be set up by the various cafe & restaurant businesses in existence. It would help
Make things feel more normal and summery. Outdoor cafes are located in so many European parks.

ricero

jackboy wrote: »

It will certainly change Ireland forever. Can’t see sweaty packed pubs coming back. Could this even be the end of Coppers? I think we will end up with continental style cafe bars with table service. Getting locked in a pub will be no more.

Some pubs will go out of business. A lot of the ones who could reopen will get out of the business and why sink more money in when such an event could happen at any time again.

This will have a huge impact on future decisions to start new businesses. People will be less likely to take he gamble.

Don't get this way of thinking at all. Many people see this as somewhat of a reset button on the world.

Personally I don't and I think we will all be back to the way things were in a years time.

castletownman

jackboy wrote: »

It will certainly change Ireland forever. Can’t see sweaty packed pubs coming back. Could this even be the end of Coppers? I think we will end up with continental style cafe bars with table service. Getting locked in a pub will be no more.

Some pubs will go out of business. A lot of the ones who could reopen will get out of the business and why sink more money in when such an event could happen at any time again.

This will have a huge impact on future decisions to start new businesses. People will be less likely to take the gamble.

I definitely can.

There's no way there is going to be total sea change that entire business practises will change. They will alter to begin with, but I can see normal order restored as soon as the doom and gloom subsides.

FionnK86

ricero wrote: »

Don't get this way of thinking at all. Many people see this as somewhat of a reset button on the world.

Personally I don't and I think we will all be back to the way things were in a years time.

Agreed, I don't see us changing our ways of the sweaty pubs. It'll take some time, but we'll be back to coppers in no time.

fly_agaric

Gooey Looey wrote: »

Like the cold? What if immunity doesn't last long?

Should not comment outside my expertise really but "the cold" is a whole collection of different viruses I think...

So your body has no hope there over the course of a lifetime, but this new virus causing the disease is a single one which may not change drastically. Situation may prove be better as regards your resistance to it after having a dose. I think its all conjecture at this point though

MD1990

once restrictions are lifted the pubs will have to turn away people at the door.

They'll be packed.

That is the reality of what will happen it is why it should be one of the last places to open.