Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

expectationlost

Danno wrote: »

Yes, you are very correct Agency staff tested at a main county hospital, still went to work in another county's CNU the next day. Text message while into their fourth hour of work in the CNU revealed they were positive for Covid 19. Four patients subsequently tested positive following that.

have they been reported to the authorities?

JRant

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If sporting events are allowed later in the year they will be behind closed doors as Germany is now considering. That kinda goes without saying.

Audiences wont be allowed any where in Europe any time soon.

That makes sense and in all honesty will probably last for the remainder of this year.

stephenjmcd

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

WHO said today that sporting events and concerts were unlikely for 18 months.

Where did they say this ? Said the opposite on radio 1 this morning

JRant

Mervyn Skidmore wrote: »

The government have said that they are making decisions based on the CMO recommendations so you're getting it from the horses mouth.

And that's my main gripe with it. He should only be part of the discussion, not the decision maker. Last time I checked he was an unelected individual.

MrMusician18

JRant wrote: »

Very sad to hear of another 41 deaths today.

Listening to the CMO I thought he overstepped the mark when asked about sporting events. He was very unequivocal that nine would be taking place until a vaccine was readily available. Now that may well be his opinion but it's up to the government to make these decisions, not the CMO.

Sport well be the last thing to come back. It's a purely pleasure pursuit which has people congregating.

From a virus containment and economic point of view it ticks all the wrong boxes. You might not have liked what he said, but he was being honest.

caveat emptor

caveat emptor wrote: »

Horrific to think. Very strange. Might go some way in explaining the high viral load affect. If viral load great enough to overcome tcells then downward trajectory. The reactivation stuff in Korea might be so far fetched either. That’s one nasty spike protein.

“The gene behind the fusion function in Sars-CoV-2 was not found in other coronaviruses in human or animals.”

What sort of mess has China left the world with.

Deeper Blue

froog wrote: »

this is some caligula sh1t right here.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1250063051182747651

It's always seemed odd to me that Trump is constantly tweeting things like this, it comes off as very childish and I'm amazed it hasn't been nipped in the bud by somebody in the White House at this stage

Rvsmmnps

https://www2.hse.ie/conditions/coronavirus/testing.html#test-centre

Does anyone know what the procedure is like,has anyone been tested?

beerguts

Would any poster be able to post a histogram of all deaths that have occurred in Ireland from Covid 19. The daily HSE reporting do give the mean and median age of death, but for me I'd like to see the actual distribution over the age ranges.

Mervyn Skidmore

JRant wrote: »

And that's my main gripe with it. He should only be part of the discussion, not the decision maker. Last time I checked he was an unelected individual.

That can work both ways though. Look at Trump and Fauci for example.

shocksy

JRant wrote: »

Now that may well be his opinion but it's up to the government to make these decisions, not the CMO.

Technically it is his decision to make, along with his team.

They report to the government with their opinion.

The government don't have to follow their instructions but they most likely always will. It would be very silly for a government to do the opposite of what they say. If things got crazy bad for not following their guidelines they would never live it down.

caveat emptor

cnocbui wrote: »

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3079443/coronavirus-could-target-immune-system-targeting-protective

Very interesting. Here is the corresponding paper in nature for those interested.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41423-020-0424-9

blade1

Unfortunately some people are never going to get the message.
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hong-kong-economy/article/3079419/coronavirus-hong-kong-residents-flock-beaches-and

froog

NDWC wrote: »

It's always seemed odd to me that Trump is constantly tweeting things like this, it comes off as very childish and I'm amazed it hasn't been nipped in the bud by somebody in the White House at this stage

he surrounds himself with yes men. anyone who doesn't fawn over him with praise constantly is immediately fired. he runs the white house exactly like he runs his company.

Rvsmmnps

froog wrote: »

he surrounds himself with yes men. anyone who doesn't fawn over him with praise constantly is immediately fired. he runs the white house exactly like he runs his company.

I think the root of the gripe between them was the issue with the "5 ventilators" in the nyc hospital. Thats what the mayor claimed,yet there were 100s of ventilators in storage.So they were trying to make out it was a lack of care from the president above.The mayor was questioned on it.

caveat emptor

caveat emptor wrote: »

Very interesting. Here is the corresponding paper in nature for those interested.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41423-020-0424-9

So does this mean we could have a highly infectious HIV like illness on our hands.

Coyote

Rvsmmnps wrote: »

https://www2.hse.ie/conditions/coronavirus/testing.html#test-centre

Does anyone know what the procedure is like,has anyone been tested?

Hi Rvsmmnps

what questions do you have?
they have given a good guide to what happens, the first part will be when you get there just window down the windows 1"they will tell you a spot to part, it was not busy when i did mine a few weeks ago just after the updated guidelines. then someone will come out and give you some stuff and ask some questions then 10-15 min later they take the sample.
then then follow whats given below, they ask you to do your best to not cough when they take the throat swab as they need to be right in front of your face.
the nose swab is not nice but it's OK, it feels like it's gone too far but that's normal, I would make sure to have cleaned your nose beforehand make life easier

Coyote

1. Park and remain in your car.
2. A healthcare worker will approach you.
3. You'll be given a mask to put on, they will explain to you what will happen, ask you some questions and you'll be taken into the test centre.
4. You'll be asked to wash your hands properly.
5. Healthcare staff will take some personal details from you including your phone number. This is so you can be contacted with your results.
6. You'll be asked to blow your nose into a tissue and bin it in a secure bin.
7. A healthcare worker will take a sample from inside your mouth and nose using a swab. This will be sent to a lab for testing.
8. You will then need to drive home and remain in self-isolation

Ficheall

stephenjmcd wrote: »

https://twitter.com/datavizireland/status/1250114533697490946?s=19

https://twitter.com/datavizireland/status/1250114268835577857?s=19

Both good stats again. People need to look beyond the case numbers and actually look at the statistics behind the figures.

"actually look at the statistics behind the figures"...


Well, there certainly is a positive slant, so to speak, to those graphs.. In actual numbers (taken with thanks from Coyote's spreadsheet), so that the increases aren't being obfuscated in percentages growth on previous days' numbers:



People newly admitted to hospital each day:
Mar 24 31
Mar 25 35
Mar 26 40
Mar 27 45
Mar 28 44
Mar 29 30
Mar 30 44
Mar 31 49
Apr 1 33
Apr 2 61
Apr 3 63
Apr 4 50
Apr 5 59
Apr 6 55
Apr 7 52
Apr 8 55
Apr 9 75
Apr 10 225
Apr 11 126
Apr 12 109
Apr 13 149
Apr 14 123

extra gravy

niallo27 wrote: »

How long before we become completed decentized to the numbers dead. For me its just a number I wait to check every day. Crazy the way it ****s with your head.

https://twitter.com/BBCPM/status/1248649465201819649?s=19

I know what you mean. This might help with that - remembering the dead as more than just statistics. Found it quite moving. Apologies if posted earlier, haven't had time to read through all the posts.

stephenjmcd

Ficheall wrote: »

"actually look at the statistics behind the figures"...


Well, there certainly is a positive slant, so to speak, to those graphs.. In actual numbers (taken with thanks from Coyote's spreadsheet), so that the increases aren't being obfuscated in percentages growth on previous days' numbers:



People newly admitted to hospital each day:
Mar 24 31
Mar 25 35
Mar 26 40
Mar 27 45
Mar 28 44
Mar 29 30
Mar 30 44
Mar 31 49
Apr 1 33
Apr 2 61
Apr 3 63
Apr 4 50
Apr 5 59
Apr 6 55
Apr 7 52
Apr 8 55
Apr 9 75
Apr 10 225
Apr 11 126
Apr 12 109
Apr 13 149
Apr 14 123

Thats the point though the numbers are quite steady especially in ICU. As has been said the lower the percentage increase the more the curve is flattening so its not a positive slant, it is a postive.

Our hosptial system could have been overrun by now, its not.

The point is people are reading way too much into the new case numbers.

caveat emptor

beerguts wrote: »

Would any poster be able to post a histogram of all deaths that have occurred in Ireland from Covid 19. The daily HSE reporting do give the mean and median age of death, but for me I'd like to see the actual distribution over the age ranges.

Here's the data. Not possible to do median or mean as it is bucketed.
But histogram possible.

Ficheall

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Thats the point though the numbers are quite steady especially in ICU.
The point is people are reading way too much into the new case numbers.

They are increasing quite steadily.

JPCN1

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Singapore reports 334 new cases and 1 new death.

It still surprises because everyone was use to Singapore having this completely under control and just like that...

I gather primarily Bangladeshi construction workers who live in cramped dormitories. Poor folk.

stephenjmcd

Ficheall wrote: »

They are increasing quite steadily.

Do you actually understand how the curve flattens ??

Of course there increasing, the whole point of flattening the curve is that it's not a sudden increase and the cases are pushed out over time.

RebelButtMunch

JPCN1 wrote: »

I gather primarily Bangladeshi construction workers who live in cramped dormitories. Poor folk.

They depend so much on immigrant labour there. I wonder what the repercussions of this will be

As expected, with the addition of the German figures, we past 10k yesterday. Today an additional 832 were added for a total of 11,479 with 406 deaths (now included in the chart below).



The r value is not truly reflective of the current rate of infection due to the German figures, but I decided to leave them in rather than try to figure some way of including them but not disrupting the main model.



Also, its difficult now to project correctly where we'll be given the disruption of the German figures to the model. I was going to track these separately to preserve the model, but it'll balance out in a few days once the last of those are accounted for. They need to be included in the overall figures anyway, so it makes more sense to just add them to the regular daily totals.

With that in mind, the projections below should be taken with a grain of salt.



The same caveat applies to the projections for the daily reported cases below



Finally, I spent a bit more time on the national, county-by-county breakdown, so that is detailed below. The blue bars represent the total cases for each county, with the orange line representing the rate per 10k population. Its also divided by province for whoever it was that mentioned that (sorry, the name escapes me).



We are now at 90k tests and according to report, the backlog should be cleared by the weekend meaning we are very close to a 24 hr turnaround for test results. That will be a big step towards easing the lockdown. The big risk will be in easing the lockdown too early. Right now Austria & Denmark are gradually lifting their lockdown's and to be honest, I think its still too early.

In my opinion, in order to return to normality, the following will be needed

• A max of a 24 hr turnaround for test results. Same-day would be better.
• Wide scale testing where clustering is difficult or unavoidable e.g. schools
• Masks to become a requirement
• Social distancing remains
• Large scale events still on hold
• A general acceptance among the population that in order to return to normality, some people are going to die who otherwise would not have if we remained in lockdown.

The easing of restrictions will come sooner or later, but personally I would not like to see it happening until we are comfortably below an r value of 0.95, at least 0.9 but I don't know how feasible that is.

Next update Friday

Ficheall

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Do you actually understand how the curve flattens ??

Of course there increasing, the whole point of flattening the curve is that it's not a sudden increase and the cases are pushed out over time.

I do, yes, thanks. My issue is that visually the graph suggests things are improving much more quickly than they are.

caveat emptor

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Thats the point though the numbers are quite steady especially in ICU. As has been said the lower the percentage increase the more the curve is flattening so its not a positive slant, it is a postive.

Our hosptial system could have been overrun by now, its not.

The point is people are reading way too much into the new case numbers.

Yeah but we are supposed to be flattening the curve. Its going up to the right, it doesn't look very flat. Taking the derivative and saying it's decreasing is the same as say the car is still accelerating but not as quickly as it was accelerating. It is still going faster however?

The positive spin is approaching religious fanaticism. I've no doubt it will slow. I'm just not going to say it is until it has.

stephenjmcd

[Deleted User] wrote: »

As expected, with the addition of the German figures, we past 10k yesterday. Today an additional 832 were added for a total of 11,479 with 406 deaths (now included in the chart below).



The r value is not truly reflective of the current rate of infection due to the German figures, but I decided to leave them in rather than try to figure some way of including them but not disrupting the main model.



Also, its difficult now to project correctly where we'll be given the disruption of the German figures to the model. I was going to track these separately to preserve the model, but it'll balance out in a few days once the last of those are accounted for. They need to be included in the overall figures anyway, so it makes more sense to just add them to the regular daily totals.

With that in mind, the projections below should be taken with a grain of salt.



The same caveat applies to the projections for the daily reported cases below



Finally, I spent a bit more time on the national, county-by-county breakdown, so that is detailed below. The blue bars represent the total cases for each county, with the orange line representing the rate per 10k population. Its also divided by province for whoever it was that mentioned that (sorry, the name escapes me).



We are now at 90k tests and according to report, the backlog should be cleared by the weekend meaning we are very close to a 24 hr turnaround for test results. That will be a big step towards easing the lockdown. The big risk will be in easing the lockdown too early. Right now Austria & Denmark are gradually lifting their lockdown's and to be honest, I think its still too early.

In my opinion, in order to return to normality, the following will be needed

• A max of a 24 hr turnaround for test results. Same-day would be better.
• Wide scale testing where clustering is difficult or unavoidable e.g. schools
• Masks to become a requirement
• Social distancing remains
• Large scale events still on hold
• A general acceptance among the population that in order to return to normality, some people are going to die who otherwise would not have if we remained in lockdown.

The easing of restrictions will come sooner or later, but personally I would not like to see it happening until we are comfortably below an r value of 0.95, at least 0.9 but I don't know how feasible that is.

Next update Friday

Excellent graphs thanks for that.

With the R value personally I would like to see that lower, potentially 0.6 - 0.7 if that was at all possible. 0.6 is the R value in Denmark today when they reopened some shops etc. But if it got to .9 that would be great too given where we started

caveat emptor

Deleted User wrote: »

So does this mean we could have a highly infectious HIV like illness on our hands.

I don't know.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_know_that_I_know_nothing

JPCN1

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

They depend so much on immigrant labour there. I wonder what the repercussions of this will be

They have way better pay over the poor sods in Qatar at least. FIFA just another discredited world body.

By the same token in the 50's in Kilburn a lot of Irish labourers suffered the same conditions and were/are largely forgotten now... those that still live

caveat emptor

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Excellent graphs thanks for that.

With the R value personally I would like to see that lower, potentially 0.6 - 0.7 if that was at all possible. 0.6 is the R value in Denmark today when they reopened some shops etc. But if it got to .9 that would be great too given where we started

That's definitely possible. Just subtract 0.2 from the series and the chart should match your expectation.

Ficheall

stephenjmcd wrote: »

With the R value personally I would like to see that lower

No sh*t?

stephenjmcd

caveat emptor wrote: »

Yeah but we are supposed to be flattening the curve. Its going up to the right, it doesn't look very flat. Taking the derivative and saying it's decreasing is the same as say the car is still accelerating but not as quickly as it was accelerating. It is still going faster however?

The positive spin is approaching religious fanaticism. I've no doubt it will slow. I'm just not going to say it is until it has.

I presume I'm right in saying this graph includes German numbers ? If I'm not do correct me.

If it does then its completely skewed given the distribution of German results coming on specific days would have been cases from different days.

Again as I've said look at hosptial and ICU numbers, there's no spin there, the growth percentage is lowering and theres a trend there.

We need to see where we are in 2 weeks time. The numbers coming towards the end of this week should hopefully reflect the measures currently in place.

Coyote

caveat emptor wrote: »

Yeah but we are supposed to be flattening the curve. Its going up to the right, it doesn't look very flat. Taking the derivative and saying it's decreasing is the same as say the car is still accelerating but not as quickly as it was accelerating. It is still going faster however?

The positive spin is approaching religious fanaticism. I've no doubt it will slow. I'm just not going to say it is until it has.

Hi caveat emptor

you are using a linear scale where the flatting the curve related to a logarithmic scale
https://study.com/academy/lesson/linear-vs-logarithmic-scales.html
with linear scale if there is one extra case it goes up so you can never flatten it till it's gone complete

Regards

Coyote

ZX7R

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Sport well be the last thing to come back. It's a purely pleasure pursuit which has people congregating.

From a virus containment and economic point of view it ticks all the wrong boxes. You might not have liked what he said, but he was being honest.

Spot ticks the wrong boxes for economic reasons???
Premier league soccer is contributes about 3.3 billion to the English economy.

Horse racing in Ireland is contributes 1.7 billion to the economy.
Gaa fixtures generate 220 million a year towards the Irish economy.
I could go on .
Sports will continue, behind closed doors more than likely ,economically they will continue .

stephenjmcd

Ficheall wrote: »

No sh*t?

Take one sentence from a full statement why do you.

If you cant understand why someone would want a lower R value that 0.9 I'd worry for you

wadacrack

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Excellent graphs thanks for that.

With the R value personally I would like to see that lower, potentially 0.6 - 0.7 if that was at all possible. 0.6 is the R value in Denmark today when they reopened some shops etc. But if it got to .9 that would be great too given where we started

The r value is an estimate . You act like the 0.6 R is a definite number in Denmark. An RO below one and you can eradicate the disease btw. Their is no exact science to this tho. Just a number that helps with models and gives some indication of how infectious the disease is.

caveat emptor

caveat emptor wrote: »

I don't know.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_know_that_I_know_nothing

As Plato himself would have said.. "we're fu*ked".

caveat emptor

stephenjmcd wrote: »

I presume I'm right in saying this graph includes German numbers ? If I'm not do correct me.

If it does then its completely skewed given the distribution of German results coming on specific days would have been cases from different days.

Again as I've said look at hosptial and ICU numbers, there's no spin there, the growth percentage is lowering and theres a trend there.

Here's the link. I don't know. Total cases is 9484 as of 13th April 2020 at 9:30 am. It's cases. I wouldn't underestimate the lag effect of this disease. It's a leading indicator. Could be skewed if level of testing higher. We don't have daily break down of tests WITH results to know that.

• Cases become cases before they go to hospital.
• They go to hospital before they go to ICU
• They generally go to ICU before they die. (although this is not true for the majority of our deaths)

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/COVID-19%20Epidemiology%20report%20for%20NPHET%2013.04.2020%20_website.pdf

Wombatman

fritzelly wrote: »

if(test==positive){
send positive_message
}
elseif(test==negative){
send negative_message
}else{
send positive_message
}

Ha ha. Very good. I think negative was the default so code was probably more like.

if(test==positive){
send positive_message
}else{
send negative _message
}

The Irish extracts probably didn't allow for a third value so code above is somewhat forgivable. Once extracts started coming from Germany with three possible results (positive, negative, invalid) the sh_IT hit the fan.

Classic IT glitch really.

stephenjmcd

wadacrack wrote: »

The r value is an estimate . You act like the 0.6 R is a definite number in Denmark. An RO below one and you can eradicate the disease btw. Their is no exact science to this tho. Just a number that helps with models and gives some indication of how infectious the disease is.

Yes I understand that and in Denmark the R was around 0.6, I should have stated that more clearly apologies.
They expect it to go to 0.8 or there abouts with restrictions being gradually lifted. It'll be helpful in modeling where we could end up if we copied the phased restart for example.

BorneTobyWilde

https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1250127433820405770



People now suggesting Boris was in hiding, playing the victim.

Ficheall

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Take one sentence from a full statement why do you.

If you cant understand why someone would want a lower R value that 0.9 I'd worry for you

My point was that it's blindingly obvious that we want a lower R value. What you were suggesting with your "personally", I can't quite fathom..

JRant

shocksy wrote: »

Technically it is his decision to make, along with his team.

They report to the government with their opinion.

The government don't have to follow their instructions but they most likely always will. It would be very silly for a government to do the opposite of what they say. If things got crazy bad for not following their guidelines they would never live it down.

I don't want to get into a back and forth on this but it really isn't his or his teams decision to make.

The government need to find a balance between their advise (which seems to be continue the lockdown until a vaccine is found) and economic advisors so people actually have a working economy to return to.

I don't envy the government having to make that call because there really is no right answer on this one but they will have to make some sort of a call sooner rather than later.

stephenjmcd

Ficheall wrote: »

My point was that it's blindingly obvious that we want a lower R value. What you were suggesting with your "personally", I can't quite fathom..

To start lifting restrictions based off other countries where r was around 0.6 I would like to see done here where r is of a similar value so we can try and see where we might stand further down the line. Last thing anyone wants is restrictions being lifted too soon and R going back up again to unsustainable numbers that would see the health service struggle.
Is that ok for you?

RobertKK

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-department-cables-warned-safety-issues-wuhan-lab-studying-bat-coronaviruses/

There were warnings from US cables from China that the security measures at the Wuhan lab were not what they should be.
The Chinese were studying bat coronaviruses to understand them better and to try and prevent a future pandemic.
It was know the lab was a risk but nothing was done to make it far more secure.

Inside the Trump administration, many national security officials have long suspected either the WIV or the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention lab was the source of the novel coronavirus outbreak. According to the New York Times, the intelligence community has provided no evidence to confirm this. But one senior administration official told me that the cables provide one more piece of evidence to support the possibility that the pandemic is the result of a lab accident in Wuhan.

Kivaro

Wombatman wrote: »

Ha ha. Very good. I think negative was the default so code was probably more like.

if(test==positive){
send positive_message
}}else{
send negative _message
}

The Irish extracts probably didn't allow for a third value so code above is somewhat forgivable. Once extracts started coming from Germany with three possible results (positive, negative, invalid) the sh_IT hit the fan.

Classic IT glitch really.

The script was tested, according to the briefing tonight, and that 3rd variable was not expected.
I know they were under pressure getting the script into production, but they should have added that for anything other than the two expected results, "send review_message". A flag should have resulted.
I know ..... hindsight.

Edit: Why the extra bracket?

fritzelly

beerguts wrote: »

Would any poster be able to post a histogram of all deaths that have occurred in Ireland from Covid 19. The daily HSE reporting do give the mean and median age of death, but for me I'd like to see the actual distribution over the age ranges.

They don't release specific ages only age ranges so I'm not sure if it would be of any use as you could have a 34 year old and a 35 year old but would be in 2 separate brackets.
If you want one based on the age ranges I can throw one up.

RobertKK

RobertKK wrote: »

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-department-cables-warned-safety-issues-wuhan-lab-studying-bat-coronaviruses/

There were warnings from US cables from China that the security measures at the Wuhan lab were not what they should be.
The Chinese were studying bat coronaviruses to understand them better and to try and prevent a future pandemic.
It was know the lab was a risk but nothing was done to make it far more secure.

This is propaganda....the virus contains a 2nd genetic componant,

Some animal ate an infected bat and was then eaten by a human,the only place this was likely to occur was a food market there