Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

Jizique

Roger_007 wrote: »

I reckon that Sweden have got it about right. They have implemented a strategy that allows a slow spread of the virus. The advantage of doing it that way is that they can continue that strategy for as long as is necessary without too much hardship on the population and without thrashing their economy. And it’s not as if they are doing nothing. They are implementing social distancing and have banned large gatherings and sporting events.
Even if our strategy works in suppressing the spread, it doesn’t solve the problem in the medium or longer term. We will have no herd immunity and will have to live with severe restrictions for a long time, or until a vaccine is found.
The economic damage that we are doing is colossal. It will take generations to repair the damage if we continue down this road for much longer.

Their economy is still trashed, albeit at perhaps not as totally trashed as some.
Economies are so intertwined these days - do you think Scania are not experiencing the same conditions as the Mercedes truck business, or Volvo? Or Volvo cars the same issues as BMW or Audi, and can they build without that part that comes from an Italian supplier? And what about the engineering companies like Assa and Atlas? Global companies all who will rise or fall based on what is happening in their end markets, not on whether the local coffee shop is open

Kermit.de.frog

2,190 deaths so far today across the US.

Remember, Dr Trump has claimed in recent days every day that the death toll will be "well short" of 100,000 in his view.

mmmm

Reckon he has made a cross for his election with that one.

25,870 deaths in the US so far.

Coyote

caveat emptor wrote: »

I do understand what you are saying. You clearly get it. Firstly I'm looking at the daily number of confirmed cases. The aggregate is useless in this instance.

This is not a World Cup or other sports contest. I'm not looking at what other countries are doing. I don't judge myself against others low standards and as a nation I don't think we do either.

So that chart with the daily cases. The median time to hospitalisation lags significantly. Also the average length of stay in hospital is very long comparatively. So cases build and it takes time for those cases to enter the hospital system and takes even longer to get out of hospital.

You may not see the effect of daily cases on the symptoms until a week after.
Average hospital stay is 2 weeks. So If cases are increasing it's a problem. Staying at home bored ****less is supposed to help us. Crucially if we reach a critical mass the overwhelming of hospitals could occur no matter what we do.

The lag is significant and that's why only looking at current hospital admissions is already out of date.


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.13.20035436v2.full.pdf




https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30075-4/fulltext

Hi caveat emptor

i agree i don't think that the daily cases found are a good way of tracking it but they are a way. the number of deaths it better but many country are not fully reporting them, i think Ireland is better than most.
they do help to get an idea of the growth in numbers and the better we test the better we understand

from the charts i post everyday the recovers from ICU are the number entered 15 days before as from my research 14 days was the avg leave/death.
the avg from hospitalization to death was shorter at 9-11 days but again would not argue a it could be longer when including exposure date to 16 days

this is why i say every time
"if you wait till we are overloaded it's too late"

but the number of people on this thread who post "not a problem" or don't understand "exponential growth" (not counting you in that number) that something that is 100 people today can be a million in a month or two and open everything up or claiming Ireland is doing badly when they don't understand the numbers.
Ireland is doing ok not great but the EU is one of the worst hit places in the world right now. about the same as switzerland not know for being bad at health care.

we can beat this, are people willing to do what it takes i don't know, contact tracing with apps, wearing masks, old people staying out of the public.
all of it's hard work but I do think we made good decisions that so far have affected the outcome.

to many people are treating this a something that is political. it's dependent on the people of Ireland to make the changes needed. not everything will be easy and if we were an Island with no boarder to the north it would be easier but we have to live with the decisions made to try and not cause a rift with NL for the next 20 years and it's hard to balance.

I would like to say it's nice to have someone agree or disagree with a well thought out argument and not just some random stat that "Faeroe Islands" has tested more per million. I think this thread could do with more well thought out posts and less random stats or clams

Regards

Coyote

Gynoid

https://www.nytimes.com/video/us/100000007082510/coronavirus-treatment.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

Interesting video today in NYT. Continues Dr Cameron Kyle Sidells speculation re different types of infection, the weirdness of Covid, it being not classic ARDS. Other doctors contributing from opposing sides.

Mwengwe

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Some more pessimistic news, Coronavirus distancing may need to continue until 2022, say experts

Honestly these articles are getting pointless and are deliberately pushed to get clicks. No-one knows, it's speculation. Just take it a day at a time.

Mwengwe

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Some more pessimistic news, Coronavirus distancing may need to continue until 2022, say experts

Honestly these articles are getting pointless and are deliberately pushed to get clicks. No-one knows, it's speculation. Just take it a day at a time.

This: "One scenario predicted a resurgence could occur as far in the future as 2025 in the absence of a vaccine or effective treatment."
Yeah, sounds very scary, but also a pretty big 'if'.

Danzy

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

I guess you are psychic if you can tell what is going on in my mind... useful skill that !

17th in the world for deaths = 406 very unfortunate people RIP
20th in the world for cases = 11,479 unfortunate people
124th in the world for population = 4,937,786 people
18th in the world for testing = 18,358/million pop (top 10 for testing if micro states are excluded)

The idea 104 countries above us in population are all being dishonest with their figures seems far fetched to me.

Likewise the idea that it is not possible to compare countries based on the figures provided by Worldometer is head in the sand stuff.

And I still think it still takes some spinning to put a positive gloss on the shocking figures above.

Other countries are not being dishonest, they just haven't been counting outside of hospitals.

Different way of doing it.

Italian doctors believe the death rate was multiples of reported.
Britain was only testing those in ICU for a long time, deaths outside of there were not.
Unprecedented situation in modern times.
Not a plot. B

Atlantic Dawn

White House press briefing outside today, CNN saying it's so mics can be removed from reporters. Yesterday each reported was mic-ed up seperately.

ShineOn7

GM228 wrote: »

I suggested it a few weeks ago:-

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=112904211

Do you want Super Gold Medal Internet Points for predicting a Depression and then going back to quote yourself as proof?

Ray Charles could've seen there's more than a standard recession coming

ihdxwz4a3pem9j

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Interesting. I wonder if you have had an opportunity to read the HSE consultant`s posts in this thread.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058062219

While some of his comments re. the HSE tally with yours others are at odds with them. Any thoughts on this?

I am a non-consultant hospital doctor (NCHD). I am on a training scheme to become a consultant. I have completed several years. So, I obviously don’t have the same years experience as the AMA poster.

The consultant seemed bang on in his/her assessment of a lot of things, but admittedly, I haven’t had a chance to read it all.

I get angry when people bang on about the HSE. Sure it’s not perfect, but it is not bad by any stretch! Certain people speak about it with such authority. Yet, these people have not worked in it. They have no experience of foreign health-services. They do not understand how complex the health situation is in all western countries (ageing demographic, more medical comorbidities, increased expectations for treatments for all people). I will be glad to continue my training for consultancy here. And hopefully, when I complete my training, I will be a consultant here. People vote with their feet. I am staying put. The HSE is decent.

I am talking with doctor-friends in other countries. I think that we are doing well in comparison. The management seem to genuinely want to help us. In other countries, the doctors are given one mask per week. In the hospital where I work, we have all the PPE that we need when we are in at-risk situations.

Roger_007

Jizique wrote: »

Their economy is still trashed, albeit at perhaps not as totally trashed as some.
Economies are so intertwined these days - do you think Scania are not experiencing the same conditions as the Mercedes truck business, or Volvo? Or Volvo cars the same issues as BMW or Audi, and can they build without that part that comes from an Italian supplier? And what about the engineering companies like Assa and Atlas? Global companies all who will rise or fall based on what is happening in their end markets, not on whether the local coffee shop is open

Those industries will recover soon enough. What they are not doing is paying out economically suicidal amounts of money to all and sundry. There is already a €20 billion hole in our finances so far and it’s growing at the rate of billions every week. Tax revenue is drying up. All this is being financed with borrowing and is being added to our already huge debt of €200 billion.
All this debt will have to be serviced for years before a cent can be spent on our public services. It is economic insanity.

Beechwoodspark

C19 is becoming the big story of this whole year at this stage

declanflynn

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

I guess you are psychic if you can tell what is going on in my mind... useful skill that !

17th in the world for deaths = 406 very unfortunate people RIP
20th in the world for cases = 11,479 unfortunate people
124th in the world for population = 4,937,786 people
18th in the world for testing = 18,358/million pop (top 10 for testing if micro states are excluded)

The idea 104 countries above us in population are all being dishonest with their figures seems far fetched to me.

Likewise the idea that it is not possible to compare countries based on the figures provided by Worldometer is head in the sand stuff.

And I still think it still takes some spinning to put a positive gloss on the shocking figures above.

load of bull droppings, look at our ICU capacity

Funsterdelux

Mwengwe wrote: »

Honestly these articles are getting pointless and are deliberately pushed to get clicks. No-one knows, it's speculation. Just take it a day at a time.

I'd agree however it is about a paper published in Science today. Everything from easing restrictions to possible immunity is based on assumptions at the moment.

No harm getting your head around the worst case senarios.

Iamabeliever

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

C19 is becoming the big story of this whole year at this stage

It's too soon to be sure

Venom

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

C19 is becoming the big story of this whole year at this stage

caveat emptor

Alisa Odd Wasp wrote: »

I am a non-consultant hospital doctor (NCHD). I am on a training scheme to become a consultant. I have completed several years. So, I obviously don’t have the same years experience as the AMA poster.

The consultant seemed bang on in his/her assessment of a lot of things, but admittedly, I haven’t had a chance to read it all.

I get angry when people bang on about the HSE. Sure it’s not perfect, but it is not bad by any stretch! Certain people speak about it with such authority. Yet, these people have not worked in it. They have no experience of foreign health-services. They do not understand how complex the health situation is in all western countries (ageing demographic, more medical comorbidities, increased expectations for treatments for all people). I will be glad to continue my training for consultancy here. And hopefully, when I complete my training, I will be a consultant here. People vote with their feet. I am staying put. The HSE is decent.

I am talking with doctor-friends in other countries. I think that we are doing well in comparison. The management seem to genuinely want to help us. In other countries, the doctors are given one mask per week. In the hospital where I work, we have all the PPE that we need when we are in at-risk situations.

Well done. You clearly like what you do so you are already in a minority. Very rare for someone to speak so positively about their employer on an Internet forum where it is of little consequence. You obviously hold them in high regard. Thanks for sharing.

Keep fighting the good fight. Stay safe. Thank you.

Technophobe

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

C19 is becoming the big story of this whole year at this stage

Not sure if serious????

boardise

Michael Dwyer wrote: »

As an aside, the epidemiologist speaking is Ruairi Brugha. Grandson of Cathal, reputedly shot 25 times in 1916. Kept himself alive singing God Save Ireland! Also anti treaty, anti Collins later.

His mam is Maire McSweeney, daughter of Terrence. So his other grandfather is Terrence McSweeney, who died in Brixton prison after a 74 day hunger strike in October 1920.

Aha - I see you're one of the mountain men...keeping the flame alive so to speak.

celticWario

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Some more pessimistic news, Coronavirus distancing may need to continue until 2022, say experts

lmao my scrotey neighbors went back to normal after like 5 days, impossible to enforce, makes you realize the fear of any kind of totalitarian dystopia is nonsense if they cant lock down a few housing estates

Beechwoodspark

Iamabeliever wrote: »

It's too soon to be sure

Well yeah it is until maybe June July time but The bigger story could be the recovery in second part of the year I choose to be optimistic.

BanditLuke

Mwengwe wrote: »

Honestly these articles are getting pointless and are deliberately pushed to get clicks. No-one knows, it's speculation. Just take it a day at a time.

Without speculation there would be no discussion. Nobody knows what's going to happen. This speculation is as valid as saying we'll be back to normal next September.

joe_99

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

I guess you are psychic if you can tell what is going on in my mind... useful skill that !

17th in the world for deaths = 406 very unfortunate people RIP
20th in the world for cases = 11,479 unfortunate people
124th in the world for population = 4,937,786 people
18th in the world for testing = 18,358/million pop (top 10 for testing if micro states are excluded)

The idea 104 countries above us in population are all being dishonest with their figures seems far fetched to me.

Likewise the idea that it is not possible to compare countries based on the figures provided by Worldometer is head in the sand stuff.

And I still think it still takes some spinning to put a positive gloss on the shocking figures above.

Worldometer are just collating propaganda from countries. The Irish numbers are wrong we all know that as the modellers themselves have indicated thus in the daily press conferences.

We can also then say that the numbers are wrong in every other country on the planet. No country has tested everyone with it, many are dying untested etc.

Now that we have established all numbers are wrong what is the point of comparison?

The only figure we can rely on is ICU numbers. Ultimately this is the fundamental measure of our success or failure.

Funsterdelux

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

C19 is becoming the big story of this whole year at this stage

Right up there with Love Island

Kermit.de.frog

If you are wondering why Trump's press conference is always delayed apparently this is intentional to eat in to prime time slots (which is why he keeps them going so long)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FuCGKEbGrtI

caveat emptor

Coyote wrote: »

Hi caveat emptor

i agree i don't think that the daily cases found are a good way of tracking it but they are a way. the number of deaths it better but many country are not fully reporting them, i think Ireland is better than most.
they do help to get an idea of the growth in numbers and the better we test the better we understand

from the charts i post everyday the recovers from ICU are the number entered 15 days before as from my research 14 days was the avg leave/death.
the avg from hospitalization to death was shorter at 9-11 days but again would not argue a it could be longer when including exposure date to 16 days

this is why i say every time
"if you wait till we are overloaded it's too late"

but the number of people on this thread who post "not a problem" or don't understand "exponential growth" (not counting you in that number) that something that is 100 people today can be a million in a month or two and open everything up or claiming Ireland is doing badly when they don't understand the numbers.
Ireland is doing ok not great but the EU is one of the worst hit places in the world right now. about the same as switzerland not know for being bad at health care.

we can beat this, are people willing to do what it takes i don't know, contact tracing with apps, wearing masks, old people staying out of the public.
all of it's hard work but I do think we made good decisions that so far have affected the outcome.

to many people are treating this a something that is political. it's dependent on the people of Ireland to make the changes needed. not everything will be easy and if we were an Island with no boarder to the north it would be easier but we have to live with the decisions made to try and not cause a rift with NL for the next 20 years and it's hard to balance.

I would like to say it's nice to have someone agree or disagree with a well thought out argument and not just some random stat that "Faeroe Islands" has tested more per million. I think this thread could do with more well thought out posts and less random stats or clams

Regards

Coyote

Couldn't agree more with everything you said. Fair play. A lot to be positive about. I don't want us to let down our guard.

Cork Boy 53

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

C19 is becoming the big story of this whole year at this stage

Since late Feb it has been the only story globally and realistically will be for at least the rest of 2020.

Jizique

Roger_007 wrote: »

Those industries will recover soon enough. What they are not doing is paying out economically suicidal amounts of money to all and sundry. There is already a €20 billion hole in our finances so far and it’s growing at the rate of billions every week. Tax revenue is drying up. All this is being financed with borrowing and is being added to our already huge debt of €200 billion.
All this debt will have to be serviced for years before a cent can be spent on our public services. It is economic insanity.

In fairness, our equivalents, largely multinational, are working from home.
Sure there is an issue with the govt largesse, but if it really is capped at €350 per week for 3 months, it won’t be too bad. The pressure will come from SF to continue paying this sum to everyone who loses their job - plus of course their rent and mortgage.

caveat emptor

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If you are wondering why Trump's press conference is always delayed apparently this is intentional to eat in to prime time slots (which is why he keeps them going so long)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FuCGKEbGrtI

So weird waiting for it to starts. It's like you are sitting in the garden with them, Very strange. :eek:

Pinch Flat

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

C19 is becoming the big story of this whole year at this stage

I think it's certainly passed the Gareth Brookes fiasco a few years back

owlbethere

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

C19 is becoming the big story of this whole year at this stage

We're only a few months into 2020 and it's an absolute pack of complete and utter sh1t year.

We came into the year with
The Australian bushfires sweeping across Australia
Boris Johnson continued with brexit
Then this virus started to sweep from Asia into Europe and beyond.
Chernobyl gave us a fright with fires recently

Can anything else go wrong for us. We need something to pick us up and give us some good news.

The best news so far is NASA telling us of an asteroid approaching Earth and from what they can see, it won't collide with Earth.

ihdxwz4a3pem9j

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

What are your thoughts on convalescent plasma/antibody therapy as a potentially quick route to treating the sickest patients? It seems that we're being a bit slow to join the other countries starting/investigating it.

https://ec.europa.eu/health/blood_tissues_organs/covid-19_en

The FDA is a board that reviews a medical treatment, and determines if it is safe for administration. They have determined that the evidence for the plasma is equivocal. Hence, they have yet to approve its use in patients. We will have to do proper clinical trials in patients before we know for sure its role. It is only an experimental treatment. A clinical trial has various steps: pre-clinical (you look at a medical therapy in animals, and determine it safe and effective). Phase I (you give it to healthy volunteers- you don’t want to test an experimental therapy on the sickest patients, their bodies are already compromised). Phase 2 (you want to test it on a small group of patients with the disease, to see if it’s effective and safe). Phase 3 (you want to test it on a large group of patients to see if it is effective and safe). We will have to get the plasma through these trials, before we know a) if it is actually effective and b) if it safe. I know that people might feel, sure what have we to lose. But until we know it’s effective and safe, we should not roll out to people.

smelly sock

Alisa Odd Wasp wrote: »

I am also a frontline doctor. I think that we are doing a terrific job! I am very proud to be working for the HSE! I have no gripes against the system, nor have I seen anything that was terrible. I do not have any political affiliation. I am simply stating what I see. All levels of the HSE are producing one hell of a response against this virus. Stay safe everybody!

Thank you so much . We owe our liberty to you guys and our futures are in your hands.

I wish you the best.

Please stay strong so we can see years more of sunrises amd sunsets.

Daroxtar

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Well yeah it is until maybe June July time but The bigger story could be the recovery in second part of the year I choose to be optimistic.

So when is Love Island back?

Be right back

Alisa Odd Wasp wrote: »

I am also a frontline doctor. I think that we are doing a terrific job! I am very proud to be working for the HSE! I have no gripes against the system, nor have I seen anything that was terrible. I do not have any political affiliation. I am simply stating what I see. All levels of the HSE are producing one hell of a response against this virus. Stay safe everybody!

Thank you and all of your colleagues.

peasant

And now for something completely different.

Playmobil have started producing face masks, available in their online shop

ShineOn7

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

17th in the world for deaths = 406 very unfortunate people RIP
20th in the world for cases = 11,479 unfortunate people
124th in the world for population = 4,937,786 people
18th in the world for testing = 18,358/million pop (top 10 for testing if micro states are excluded)

Are those figures all per head of population?

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/apr/14/coronavirus-live-news-cases-worldwide-near-2-million-trump-repeats-who-funding-threat-latest-updates

In Germany, local media are reporting that zoos are making contingency plans, including killing some of the animals, should the lockdown continue without a solution to their financial troubles.

Neumünster Zoo’s director has told Die Welt they have “listed the animals we will have to slaughter first” and said some may even have to be fed to others. But even such drastic plans would not be sufficient to solve the problem.

Verena Kaspari told the paper the step would be a last resort and “unpleasant”. She referred to the plight of the piscivorous animals and added: “If it comes to it, I’ll have to euthanise animals, rather than let them starve.”

Beechwoodspark

Yes agreed it has been a bad year for news.

One tiny tiny positive in all this is that air quality has improved with lower co2 emissions. That is one thing in all this I would keep.

But yeah, other than that I am clutching at straws.

ShineOn7

Iamabeliever wrote: »

It's too soon to be sure

A much needed laugh

And I read it in a dry Culchie's accent for some reason

Daroxtar

Daroxtar wrote: »

So when is Love Island back?

Hopefully never

Rob A. Bank

joe_99 wrote: »

Worldometer are just collating propaganda from countries. The Irish numbers are wrong we all know that as the modellers themselves have indicated thus in the daily press conferences.

We can also then say that the numbers are wrong in every other country on the planet. No country has tested everyone with it, many are dying untested etc.

Now that we have established all numbers are wrong what is the point of comparison?

The only figure we can rely on is ICU numbers. Ultimately this is the fundamental measure of our success or failure.

The ICU numbers are totally dependent on the triage metrics applied in deciding who is being admitted there.

tobefrank321

Gael23 wrote: »

The restrictions are clearly not working

They aren't working in the east/Dublin region where a high proportion of deaths are. But it seems like its more nursing homes where its not working.

SEPT 23 1989

Vivienne23 wrote: »

Many small businesses will close they were just getting over the last recession and this year was going to be the money year where they might make a few bob , they won’t bother reopening cos it’s just not worth the hassle anymore

Many of the small businesses who traded through the last recession will have very little debt today unlike 2008

No way in hell they will do another one

Too many mental scars from the last time

They can walk way today clean and take the dole

10000maniacs

Deleted User wrote: »

So does this mean we could have a highly infectious HIV like illness on our hands.

Nope, If HIV was as infectious as COVID, It wouldn't have made it out of Wuhan. It would kill you in a few days.
Not very good for a virus spreading wise.

ihdxwz4a3pem9j

Be right back wrote: »

Thank you and all of your colleagues.

My brother is a Garda. My best-friend’s wife stays at home, and minds the kids, while he goes to work in the hospital. I have been living off take-out. I do my shopping in Tesco. I called the people in revenue the other day. I bought some stuff in pharmacy at the weekend. All of these things are run by hard-working individuals. They all deserve praise and thanks! And the people sitting at home reading this, who cannot work, deserve praise and thanks. It is by staying home and not spreading the virus, that the health service has been able to function so well. Thank you, but the thanks is much deserved by so many!

joe_99

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Are those figures all per head of population?

The more you test the higher all those figures become. We are one of the top testers on the planet. Don't worry about other countries look at our hospitals and ICUs. They are the reason for the lockdown. To stop them being overwhelmed and hence unable to cope....resulting in unnecessary deaths

owlbethere

peasant wrote: »

And now for something completely different.

Playmobil have started producing face masks, available in their online shop

LOL. I thought you were joking so I popped over for a look and lo and behold, a playmobil mask. I would prefer a lego mask myself.

Lackey

Daroxtar wrote: »

So when is Love Island back?

July
They are interviewing now online

smelly sock

Alisa Odd Wasp wrote: »

My brother is a Garda. My best-friend’s wife stays at home, and minds the kids, while he goes to work in the hospital. I have been living off take-out. I do my shopping in Tesco. I called the people in revenue the other day. I bought some stuff in pharmacy at the weekend. All of these things are run by hard-working individuals. They all deserve praise and thanks! And the people sitting at home reading this, who cannot work, deserve praise and thanks. It is by staying home and not spreading the virus, that the health service has been able to function so well. Thank you, but the thanks is much deserved by so many!

All the above are the reason why our children will have a future.

I cry when i think of the sacrafice they are making.