Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

Mic 1972

Christy42 wrote: »

All those countries have natural social distancing through culture. It is why they are the best comparison for each other (though not perfect).

This thing about natural social distancing doesn't make much sense to me. No culture in the world keeps people 2 mts away from each other and has no pubs/restaurant/gyms and places where people mixed with each other. If that was the case than these countries wouldn't have regular flue epidemics every year

Iamabeliever

Rvsmmnps wrote: »

With the known stats
On one given day that 800 people test positive in Ireland.
How many of them are ill enough to be admitted to hospital?
How many of them will die from covid 19? And how many of them deaths will be of people who are fit and middle aged?
How many deaths will be from people over 70 already ill?
How many will never show symptoms?
How many will have just a common cold?

I think your stirring the pot?
I guess you never heard of FLATTENING THE CURVE!
Age of people who die is relative to ICU capacity.
🙌

khalessi

bilston wrote: »

There will be interest to see what happens in Denmark over the next two or three weeks.

The one advantage of trying to get schools re-opened, even for a week or two in June, that I can think of is that by the middle of July we will have some idea of the impact of re-opening schools on the infection rates. This might help planning for September.

Children should not be used to test the viability of the hospitals, the spread of the disease and the effect on infection rates.

My concern is the Dept of Education will come up with a half assed plan for the exams and for reopening of schools not taking into account illnesses which prior to Covid19 were not a huge issue to deal with in schools but now could present major concerns.

Asthma, CF, diabetes, psoriasis depending on the medications you are on as they can make you immunocompromised, and that is just a few conditions to think about that were not a huge concern before Covid19. Hell even being overweight is comorbidity for Covid19.

When schools are resopened it should be done safely for the students and staff. But I can bet that allocation of classes will be left to the teacher. Bringing in half a class is between 15-18 children and that plus one or two adults is too much in one room.

A max of 6 students or just people in a room and even it just takes one carrier of Covid19.

Other buildings need to be taken over to accommodate the reopening of schools t be used as classrooms and in areas where there are a glut of schools this could prove problematic.

And that is not even before the daily deep clean of all locations used for teaching as Covid can stay on surfaces for up to 72hrs.

hotmail.com

is_that_so wrote: »

What should our outrage towards our own government be?

The failure to prepare nursing homes for this crisis. The lack of testing and the disgracefully slow time to get your results.

bilston

Hector Savage wrote: »

I saw last night on a trip to shops some neighbours in an apartment block across the street from us having a chat, but they were literally 10cm apart, not a bother on them, I think I can understand why this is still spreading like absolute wildfire here in Spain and is not slowing down a bit - after one month of lockdown ..

The number of new cases have almost halved in the last week in Spain. Obviously with Easter there might be a delay in reporting etc, but there is a definite downward trend in Spain.

is_that_so

smelly sock wrote: »

I'd tend to agree.

It's not a popular opinion but I feel we are locking down the country to the detriment of millions and to benefit a few.

Surely the at risk categories can be protected with this shutdown?

With a largely unknown pathogen it's a public health issue and we went with measures known to have an effect. With your quasi herd immunity approach, the health system would have been like Italy or Spain and the economy would have taken a massive hit anyway.

KrustyUCC

From Simon Harris twitter

"A number to give us hope this morning -77. The number of people with #Covid19 who have now been discharged from ICU. 77 lives recovering thanks to the amazing dedication of our health professionals. 77 families relieved. 77 reasons to motivate us & encourage us to stay the course"

Some good news

walshb

hotmail.com wrote: »

The attention on Trump from people here is misapplied.

We let our government off because so many get outraged about Trump.

Comparing anyone to that man is utterly ludicrous. He is completely off the scale in comparison.

He is so far off the line...

Nobody is saying any government is perfect, but by jaysus, ALL our politicians are so much more decent and human and dignified compared to this horror...IF one wants to compare, that is.

Xertz

What’s concerning me is that people in the media, many of those commenting online and including several on this thread, STILL keep comparing raw numbers of detected cases in countries that are carrying out vastly different testing regimes.

Unless we have comparable, random population samples those figures aren’t comparable as they just indicate the volume of tests being carried out and have selection bias if those tests are being targeted only towards symptomatic people.

All it will do is cause countries that are less than transparent or have a political system that is concerned about painting a pretty picture to reduce volumes of tests.

Ireland is genuinely carrying out a very high number of tests per capita. It’s still not enough, but there’s a general capacity issue on this globally due to how those tests are processed using the techniques we have access to so far.

However constantly comparing the numbers of cases *detected* is absolutely meaningless.

Likewise even the morality rate is hard to compare because different places are excluding and including people who died with other underlying diseases where Coronavirus has just pushed them over the edge and others aren’t even publishing figures for people who died outside of hospital contexts, which could be as many as half of their cases.

Blueshoe

hotmail.com wrote: »

The failure to prepare nursing homes for this crisis. The lack of testing and the disgracefully slow time to get your results.

I clicked on the journal app. Top story is two headlines in one. A recap. First sentence is about Trump cutting who funding. Second is deaths in Ireland now over 400.

Which headline should be first?

Gynoid

khalessi wrote: »

Children should not be used to test the viability of the hospitals, the spread of the disease and the effect on infection rates.

My concern is the Dept of Education will come up with a half assed plan for the exams and for reopening of schools not taking into account illnesses which prior to Covid19 were not a huge issue to deal with in schools but now could present major concerns.

Asthma, CF, diabetes, psoriasis depending on the medications you are on as they can make you immunocompromised, and that is just a few conditions to think about that were not a huge concern before Covid19. Hell even being overweight is comorbidity for Covid19.

When schools are resopened it should be done safely for the students and staff. But I can bet that allocation of classes will be left to the teacher. Bringing in half a class is between 15-18 children and that plus one or two adults is too much in one room.

A max of 6 students in a room and even it just takes one carrier of Covid19.

Other buildings need to be taken over to accommodate the reopening of schools t be used as classrooms and in areas where there are a glut of schools this could prove problematic.

And that is not even before the daily deep clean of all locations used for teaching as Covid can stay on surfaces for up to 72hrs.

I have a good friend who is a teacher in Sweden and I asked him how is it going, he said it is impossible to make the children follow the rules, that he is not scared for himself on a personal level, but that he does not want to leave his children fatherless. Sounds great.

cameramonkey

quokula wrote: »

There is a worldwide shortage of reagent and some delays are inevitable. The HSE have been open and transparent about the size of the backlog and the steps they're taking to reduce it and their aim to eliminate it soon with the help of the German testing.

Very few right thinking people could say our government has done much wrong in this crisis, obviously in an unprecedented situation some mistakes will get made but we've fortunately been exemplary in our handling of it.

Testing is not going according to plan here and the HSE's attitude has been anything but transparent and open. There are people waiting weeks for results. Hopefully the HSE will get their act together. The following does not inspire much confidence.

"The plan is to widen the net, and expand the criteria for testing outside the current priority groups, in order to capture more people who have the virus., Dr Holohan said yesterday that he has "no confidence" yet that the testing regime, as of now, would be able to cope with this expansion."

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/incorrect-results-are-blamed-on-it-fault-as-testing-set-to-ramp-up-39129047.html

hotmail.com

walshb wrote: »

Comparing anyone to that man is utterly ludicrous. He is completely off the scale in comparison.

He is so far off the line...

Nobody is saying any government is perfect, but by jaysus, ALL our politicians are so much more decent and human and dignified compared to this horror...

Why compare our politicians with Trump? Why not compare them with politicians with a similar system to us and a similar size?

quokula

joe_99 wrote: »

https://www.investopedia.com/insights/worlds-top-economies/

USA is 23% of world economy so you could say they are underpaying.

3rd world countries rely on WHO. Western democracies will not be impacted by WHO funding decreases

Without the WHO who's to say that western democracies wouldn't have been impacted by MERS, Ebola or the first SARS for example?

They're dealing with new viruses all the time, this one slipped the net despite their best efforts. They did make mistakes but that can happen with completely unknown phenomenon. They didn't engage in intentional misdirection and complete negligence like Trump did.

The failure to contain this virus is a reason to invest more in future, not less.

hotmail.com

Blueshoe wrote: »

I clicked on the journal app. Top story is two headlines in one. A recap. First sentence is about Trump cutting who funding. Second is deaths in Ireland now over 400.

Which headline should be first?

Ireland.

Journal churns out Trump articles for hits which have no relevance to us.

walshb

hotmail.com wrote: »

Why compare our politicians with Trump? Why not compare them with politicians with a similar system to us and a similar size?

Agreed.....

Trump is off the table....he is so far off (what anyone with half a brain) normal and decent and becoming of a leader of respectable figure...

BanditLuke

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

That distraction is handed to China by Trump. They have the moral high ground now and are entitled to use it.

They shouldn't have any plinth from which to preach moral values to the world after this but now they do.

It's sad to see the lack of tact, common sense, basic common decency and intelligence from a POTUS.

Hopefully not much longer.

I agree but it doesn't change the fact this falls squarely on China's shoulders.

joe_99

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Ireland has a population of roughly 5 million people. With 800 new cases per day we are the equivalent of a country like Spain if they had 8,000 cases per day
A lot of highly infected countries like italy or Spain managed to stay within the 6,000 new cases even during peak. We are not doing very well

They are not new cases. Plus we are testing more.

is_that_so

hotmail.com wrote: »

The failure to prepare nursing homes for this crisis. The lack of testing and the disgracefully slow time to get your results.

Not their remit at all - HSE, HIQA - take your pick. Testing is NVRL/HSE and the well-publicised issues around supplies have scuppered most of their plans to date. You clearly haven't been listening to the CMO and Henry about the general purpose of testing but be outraged if you must.

khalessi

Gynoid wrote: »

I have a good friend who is a teacher in Sweden and I asked him how is it going, he said it is impossible to make the children follow the rules, that he is not scared for himself on a personal level, but that he does not want to leave his children fatherless. Sounds great.

I also think PPe should be issued to all staff and children should be wearing masks

tobefrank321

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

That distraction is handed to China by Trump. They have the moral high ground now and are entitled to use it.

They shouldn't have any plinth from which to preach moral values to the world after this but now they do.

It's sad to see the lack of tact, common sense, basic common decency and intelligence from a POTUS.

Hopefully not much longer.

China has no moral ground, in anything. They are directly and indirectly responsible for this mess.

Every other country including the US is dealing with the fallout from the Chinese created mess.

Other countries have a choice between wrecking their economies or allowing large numbers of people to die. A choice handed to them by Chinese and WHO mistakes.

China are now implementing the same policies they called racist back in January - restricting foreigners coming in and forcefully quarantining all arrivals. When China does it, its ok. If anyone else tries it, they are called racist, xenophobic, fascist and so on.

quokula

cameramonkey wrote: »

Testing is not going according to plan here and the HSE's attitude has been anything but transparent and open. There are people waiting weeks for results. Hopefully the HSE will get their act together. The following does not inspire much confidence.

"The plan is to widen the net, and expand the criteria for testing outside the current priority groups, in order to capture more people who have the virus., Dr Holohan said yesterday that he has "no confidence" yet that the testing regime, as of now, would be able to cope with this expansion."

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/incorrect-results-are-blamed-on-it-fault-as-testing-set-to-ramp-up-39129047.html

So we've already got one of the highest testing rates in the world, we want to expand it even further, but the person in charge admits he's not confident that we can achieve this yet. Where's the lack of transparency there?

martingriff

smelly sock wrote: »

Wow, incoherent at best.

Any link to that?

On the phone so can't link it was live as I watched it. Anything I can try to explain. Sorry as said on the phone

Hector Savage

Look at Norway aswell the way they have turned it around, and then you have utter ****holes like Spain and Italy that have been in lockdown for longer and are only getting worse - it's a f*cking JOKE!

Hector Savage

tobefrank321 wrote: »

China has no moral ground, in anything. They are directly and indirectly responsible for this mess.

Every other country including the US is dealing with the fallout from the Chinese created mess.

Other countries have a choice between wrecking their economies or allowing large numbers of people to die. A choice handed to them by Chinese and WHO mistakes.

But but but ORANGE MAN BAD!!!

lawred2

Blueshoe wrote: »

Because I don't agree with your opinion or the legitimacy of your sources it's trolling?

The go to word when someone refuses to agree with your narrative. You can have your opinion don't try deny me of mine.

That's not what I wrote. Not even close. But whatever.

youandme13

khalessi wrote: »

I also think PPe should be issued to all staff and children should be wearing masks

And what about when creches and preschools open, how are you supposed to keep 12 two year olds keep masks on and 2m distance from each other?

walshb

Hector Savage wrote: »

But but but ORANGE MAN BAD!!!

He is

Separate to anything. He is plain mad. and bad......

But the problem is that people actually support him, encourage him and allow him to be what he is, and do what he does...

KrustyUCC

KrustyUCC wrote: »

From Simon Harris twitter

"A number to give us hope this morning -77. The number of people with #Covid19 who have now been discharged from ICU. 77 lives recovering thanks to the amazing dedication of our health professionals. 77 families relieved. 77 reasons to motivate us & encourage us to stay the course"

Some good news

yep..typical, the number given the very day after a huge back lash relating to care home deaths etc. Sure a few days ago it was ZEE Germans who botched 100 tests. Now it was a "Glitch" on our side. The other day big tony said it was due to very low viral rates misreading as negative only to come back as positive.
But woo hoo the Gov are telling us of 77 out of ICU....

Hrududu

Blueshoe wrote: »

I clicked on the journal app. Top story is two headlines in one. A recap. First sentence is about Trump cutting who funding. Second is deaths in Ireland now over 400.

Which headline should be first?

Blueshoe and Trump sittin' in a tree K.I.S.S.I.....stop that. Stick to social distancing!

Drumpot

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I'm damn glad the US is the leader of the free world, whatever that means, rather than China.
I give the Chinese credit for getting on top of this in their own country, but not much more. They clearly pressurised the WHO to advise against a travel ban to and from China until it was completely contained there. That was a massive mistake by both China and the WHO.

Once covid 19 got to Europe and the US, it was going to be almost impossible to contain, as western governments don't have the same tyrannical powers used by China.

Or maybe it’s a virus that has no political ties to anybody and it was always going to spread around the world because natural disasters happen.

Perhaps the problem is that we have been programmed to think we are the centre of the universe and that humans are responsible for everything good or bad that happens. The people we think are good are always trying to do the right things and the people who are different or bad are always responsible. This also allows us to absolve ourselves or the goodies of blame so we can turn all our righteous anger on our foes...

As a species we do love a good yarn.

Rvsmmnps

Iamabeliever wrote: »

I think your stirring the pot?
I guess you never heard of FLATTENING THE CURVE!
Age of people who die is relative to ICU capacity.
🙌

Not a question answered, do you own a fishing rod?

khalessi

youandme13 wrote: »

And what about when creches and preschools open, how are you supposed to keep 12 two year olds keep masks on and 2m distance from each other?

Agreed so difficult to keep them separated and social distancing when we can't even get adults to do it correctly

But that will no doubt be left as a local issue as long as the optics look right for d media to pacify those saying schools should be reopened

Iamabeliever

Rvsmmnps wrote: »

Not a question answered, do you own a fishing rod?

Touche

BanditLuke

tobefrank321 wrote: »

China has no moral ground, in anything. They are directly and indirectly responsible for this mess.

Every other country including the US is dealing with the fallout from the Chinese created mess.

Other countries have a choice between wrecking their economies or allowing large numbers of people to die. A choice handed to them by Chinese and WHO mistakes.

Agreed. There is a movement as to somehow shift blame away from China and focus on Trump that a lot of people with sub standard intelligence for falling for and a narrative pushed by the likes of CNN.

Trump is what he is, an absolute fool of the worst type but yet we see and hear constant focus by the media on him and hardly any on Xi Jinping.

Xi Jinping and the corrupt criminal organisation that is the CCP are responsible for this mess, that's the bottom line.

quokula

Blueshoe wrote: »

I clicked on the journal app. Top story is two headlines in one. A recap. First sentence is about Trump cutting who funding. Second is deaths in Ireland now over 400.

Which headline should be first?

While the fact that we've kept deaths down to 400 is an important story it's not major breaking news because it's based on numbers from early yesterday and is in line with the trend for days.

The world's biggest economy unexpectedly announcing that they're actively setting out to undermine humanity's ability to fight pandemics like this is a bigger news story for the day.

martingriff

smelly sock wrote: »

Controlled easing of restrictions and the lockdown.

Varadkar shouldn't have extended it by 3.5 weeks. That was wrong.

Restrictions could not be eased. Testing time needs to be reduced and in the time until May this will happen. The Bank Holiday happening it was right to keep it to then and not just 2 weeks. By the time the next holiday happens we will know how cases are going

joe_99

BanditLuke wrote: »

Agreed. There is a movement as to somehow shift blame away from China and focus on Trump that a lot of people with sub standard intelligence for falling for and a narrative pushed by the likes of CNN.

Trump is what he is, an absolute fool of the worst type but yet we see and hear constant focus by the media on him and hardly any on Xi Jinping.

Xi Jinping and the corrupt criminal organisation that is the CCP are responsible for this mess, that's the bottom line.

Trump and Xi Jinping as possibly the two worst world leaders to have at this time. Shambolic from both. Depressing

Hector Savage

walshb wrote: »

He is

Separate to anything. He is plain mad. and bad......

But the problem is that people actually support him, encourage him and allow him to be what he is, and do what he does...

It's crazy the way people lose their head over Trump, but are just fine with the CCP and the WHO doing what they did ...

growleaves

is_that_so wrote: »

I get the impression that no matter how we'd gone about this you'd find fault with it.

Well then you've formed the wrong impression.

I've been consistent in my criticisms of the response - taking a very unpopular position on this crisis when everyone else wanted to go with the worst-case-scenario models, 'just to be safe'.

I could have been disastrously wrong (albeit under a pseudonym) and still could be.

Mostly I've been trying to warn against the over-interpretation of medical statistics based on stringing together multiple unproven and possibly faulty assumptions.

New Home

Isabel Tight Molecule wrote: »

I think we are about 6-8 weeks away from Trump telling us he has been approached by an Alien Race with a Bigly cure

Trump? Aliens? Not a chance! He'd probably want to build a wall all over the US to keep them out (like a biosphere, only not see-through). It'll be a Superior Race, maybe, but not as Terrifically Superior as he is.

Blueshoe wrote: »

Johnson and Johnson are receiving most funding

Boris is getting twice the funding?!? :pac:

smelly sock wrote: »

The Italians must be useless.

Can't do anything for themselves.

I think the expression you're looking for is "Good at delegating", Sockie. :cool:

Rob A. Bank

BanditLuke wrote: »

Agreed. There is a movement as to somehow shift blame away from China and focus on Trump that a lot of people with sub standard intelligence for falling for and a narrative pushed by the likes of CNN.

Trump is what he is, an absolute fool of the worst type but yet we see and hear constant focus by the media on him and hardly any on Xi Jinping.

Xi Jinping and the corrupt criminal organisation that is the CCP are responsible for this mess, that's the bottom line.

Aww now come on Luke... the is a 'smart guy' with a big brain (at least he thinks so) :rolleyes:

Kermit.de.frog

tobefrank321 wrote: »

China has no moral ground, in anything. They are directly and indirectly responsible for this mess.

Every other country including the US is dealing with the fallout from the Chinese created mess.

Other countries have a choice between wrecking their economies or allowing large numbers of people to die. A choice handed to them by Chinese and WHO mistakes.

China are now implementing the same policies they called racist back in January - restricting foreigners coming in and forcefully quarantining all arrivals. When China does it, its ok. If anyone else tries it, they are called racist, xenophobic, fascist and so on.

You say WHO mistakes however, there is an important point people seem to overlook.

The reality is, in terms of pathogens, China is the most dangerous country in the world when you think about SARS and Bird Flu for example.

And unfortunately, like it or not, the WHO needs for all of our sakes the co operation of China.

So it's a rock and a hard place. They need the co operation but would end up probably banned from the country if they direct criticism.

It's more complicated an issue then it may initially look. But Trump is a dummy and doesn't do such nuance.

eagle eye

quokula wrote:

Very few right thinking people could say our government has done much wrong in this crisis, obviously in an unprecedented situation some mistakes will get made but we've fortunately been exemplary in our handling of it.

Our government did lots of wrong from the outset. It was clear how serious this was long before they decided to go into lockdown. They are responsible for hundreds of deaths by being so slow to react.
I locked down three weeks before the government did because it was obvious how serious this would become.

Xertz

This is probably the most rapid rollout and up scaling of this kind of testing that has ever been done in any country ever in history. Doctors, scientists, technicians and engineers across most countries are pulling out all the stops and have achieved a hell of a lot in a very short time.

I think we need to get our heads around why there are capacity issues and how overcoming them by snapping fingers isn’t really possible. There are serious technical limits in terms of access to capacity - equipment (lead time in deliveries, lack of availability globally), pressure on getting access to chemicals and other items due to unprecedented global demand.

Also no country has vast amounts of this kind of stuff sitting around doing nothing for years.

There are going to be delays and rolling out population wide testing is taking time and also needing development of rapid test kits. What’s been produced to date has not proven to be very reliable - see what happened in Spain with the volume of Chinese made test kits that were purchased and turned out to be very inaccurate and that’s happened elsewhere too.

All any of us can be is realistic about what’s possible.

owlbethere

Regarding schools, I think maybe we would be better of they were to remain closed until September. It will be a raw deal for the 6th class pupils transitioning to secondary school without finishing primary school though.

Xertz

owlbethere wrote: »

Regarding schools, I think maybe we would be better of they were to remain closed until September. It will be a raw deal for the 6th class pupils transitioning to secondary school without finishing primary school though.

I don’t know. Thinking back to my start of secondary school, I don’t really think it would have made much difference. The primary school system is not all that regimented and many of the subjects you take in secondary school are entirely new or take totally different approaches.

Most people will just get over the bump and carry on in September, October or whenever we start up again and accommodations and adaptions will be made where needed.

The only students I would be concerned about are senior cycle, close to leaving certificate as they’re under big pressure (too big in my opinion, but that’s another thread).

Blueshoe

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Aww now come on Luke... the is a 'smart guy' with a big brain (at least he thinks so) :rolleyes:

Again Nowthis "articles"

A "news" organisation that is rated as "extreme left wing bias" by media fact and bias check organisations. The bias scale doesn't go any higher than extreme. They are rated extreme. Left wing version of breitbart

https://mediabiasfactcheck-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/mediabiasfactcheck.com/nowthis-news/?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&amp&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15869067018476&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fmediabiasfactcheck.com%2Fnowthis-news%2F

wakka12

Deaths in Scotland now at almost 1000 including nursing home deaths and deaths at home

The nursing homes account for 25% of deaths while 13% of the deaths in Scotland occurred at home

Rob A. Bank

A very detailed 'Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response'.

Reading it you will find that there was very little delay in the response of the World Health Organization to the emerging pandemic, and criminally culpable delay by the Trump White House in it's response.

https://www.justsecurity.org/69650/timeline-of-the-coronavirus-pandemic-and-u-s-response/