Sweden avoiding lockdown

daithi7

Ireland may have eased lockdown but I see the national screening program for the most deadly cancers is still suspended, like seriously wtf!?

So in summary we're still sacrificing people's lives who have detectable cancers that won't be detected on the altar of treating Covid.... ehhh except Covid is all but past tense, with hardly any cases needing treatment for weeks, and far more people are likely to die of these otherwise detectable cancers........go figure hey!? (

https://www.screeningservice.ie/

Coronavirus and screening programmes
The National Screening Service (NSS) screening programmes have been paused until further notice. This move was taken on public health advice due to the situation with Covid-19. The restarting of screening will be based on HSE and Department of Health guidance, as measures to prevent Covid-19 are amended by Government.

Screening programmes affected
The screening programmes that have been paused are:

BreastCheck (mammograms)
CervicalCheck (cervical tests)
BowelScreen (home test kits and colonoscopy appointments in hospitals)
Diabetic Retinopathy (eye) screening and routine treatments in hospitals
Reasons for pausing screening
Screening has been paused in order to:

protect patients and staff by complying with social distancing guidelines
minimise the impact on essential HSE services as we respond to COVID-19
enable the HSE to redirect NSS staff and resources to the response to COVID-19......

cnocbui

You are not supposed to talk about sacrificing anyone other than the elderly and immunologically vulnerable.

JimmyVik

cnocbui wrote: »

You are not supposed to talk about sacrificing anyone other than the elderly and immunologically vulnerable.

Sweden decided to rip the plaster off and kill their elderly and immunologically vulnerable early.

cnocbui

JimmyVik wrote: »

Sweden decided to rip the plaster off and kill their elderly and immunologically vulnerable early.

I believe, that the majority of those who have died from SARS-2, have already exceeded the average life expectancy by a couple of years. Australia just had a couple mystery community infections and China are continuing to have sporadic outbreaks, such as in Beijing.

I think the Swedes have got it right - grit your teeth and let the inevitable unfold. Lockdown quarantine is a commendable and sensible thing to do in the face of an outbreak or epidemic, but it's peeing into the wind once you have a pandemic.

JimmyVik

cnocbui wrote: »

I believe, that the majority of those who have died from SARS-2, have already exceeded the average life expectancy by a couple of years. Australia just had a couple mystery community infections and China are continuing to have sporadic outbreaks, such as in Beijing.

I think the Swedes have got it right - grit your teeth and let the inevitable unfold. Lockdown quarantine is a commendable and sensible thing to do in the face of an outbreak or epidemic, but it's peeing into the wind once you have a pandemic.

But most people i know who are currently above the average life expectancy would like to stay above ground. They wouldnt say its peeing into the wind at all.

charlie14

cnocbui wrote: »

I believe, that the majority of those who have died from SARS-2, have already exceeded the average life expectancy by a couple of years. Australia just had a couple mystery community infections and China are continuing to have sporadic outbreaks, such as in Beijing.

I think the Swedes have got it right - grit your teeth and let the inevitable unfold. Lockdown quarantine is a commendable and sensible thing to do in the face of an outbreak or epidemic, but it's peeing into the wind once you have a pandemic.

The regard and empathy you feel for your fellow human beings really does come across very clearly in your post. .

cnocbui

charlie14 wrote: »

The regard and empathy you feel for your fellow human beings really does come across very clearly in your post. .

Would you like a tissue? A scented candle?

charlie14

cnocbui wrote: »

Would you like a tissue? A scented candle?

Now now, no need to get narky just because the Swedish strategy you were such a cheerleader for has been shown, as the former Swedish state epidemiologist 2005-2013 Annika Linde phrased it, "A dream with very little basis in reality"

tobefrank321

daithi7 wrote: »

Ireland may have eased lockdown but I see the national screening program for the most deadly cancers is still suspended, like seriously wtf!?

So in summary we're still sacrificing people's lives who have detectable cancers that won't be detected on the altar of treating Covid.... ehhh except Covid is all but past tense, with hardly any cases needing treatment for weeks, and far more people are likely to die of these otherwise detectable cancers........go figure hey!? (

https://www.screeningservice.ie/

Coronavirus and screening programmes
The National Screening Service (NSS) screening programmes have been paused until further notice. This move was taken on public health advice due to the situation with Covid-19. The restarting of screening will be based on HSE and Department of Health guidance, as measures to prevent Covid-19 are amended by Government.

Screening programmes affected
The screening programmes that have been paused are:

BreastCheck (mammograms)
CervicalCheck (cervical tests)
BowelScreen (home test kits and colonoscopy appointments in hospitals)
Diabetic Retinopathy (eye) screening and routine treatments in hospitals
Reasons for pausing screening
Screening has been paused in order to:

protect patients and staff by complying with social distancing guidelines
minimise the impact on essential HSE services as we respond to COVID-19
enable the HSE to redirect NSS staff and resources to the response to COVID-19......

They are resuming screening in the Autumn and Winter which will be right smack in the middle of a second wave if or probably when it comes.

Now was the perfect time to resume screening as medical facilities are hugely underused.

It appears to be a worldwide issue though, including in Sweden. We just have to learn to live with covid19 until a vaccine and that means cancer services resuming with precautions in place.

biko

53323 official cases
4939 officially dead
9% of known cases have passed

Numbers from FHMs own tracking page
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

Sweden has gone from 12 to 9% deaths of known cases.
They are finally trying to ramp up testing

biko

Don't worry.
According to the Swedish Social Democratic government their strategy is still a success.

https://time.com/5853595/sweden-coronavirus-lockdown-criticism/

Lofven said that “it’s too early to draw any definitive conclusions about the success of our strategy,” despite the high death rate.
The number of Covid-related deaths now totals 4,874 in Sweden, dwarfing the 597 registered in neighboring Denmark and 242 in Norway.

According to Lofven, Sweden’s excess mortality rate “is normal for the time of year.”

Breezin

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#map-of-z-scores

Charles Babbage

So far about 9% of recorded cases in Sweden have died.
They report 940 cases today. Now the fatality rate is probably improving, and they may be testing more, but even if it halves that means 50 deaths in a few weeks time. Finland, Norway and Denmark together only reported about 40 cases yesterday. They'll not be opening their border with Sweden anytime soon.

StefanFal

Charles Babbage wrote: »

So far about 9% of recorded cases in Sweden have died.
They report 940 cases today. Now the fatality rate is probably improving, and they may be testing more, but even if it halves that means 50 deaths in a few weeks time. Finland, Norway and Denmark together only reported about 40 cases yesterday. They'll not be opening their border with Sweden anytime soon.

We usually take the campervan to Norway for a weeks cycling in the mountains each summer. A few friends of mine snuck across the border near Bruksvallarna 2 weeks ago with no issue but I wouldn't risk getting caught in an SE registered vehicle.

Croatia have opened their borders to Sweden so its looking like that this year.

JimmyVik

biko wrote: »

Don't worry.
According to the Swedish Social Democratic government their strategy is still a success.

https://time.com/5853595/sweden-coronavirus-lockdown-criticism/

Has anyone told the Swedes that higher is bad?
It looks like they are under the ipression higher is good.

Just wondering.

is_that_so

JimmyVik wrote: »

Has anyone told the Swedes that higher is bad?
It looks like they are under the ipression higher is good.

Just wondering.

They could hardly throw their hands up now and say it was a disaster. It was their strategy all along, even if the rest of the world would not choose to follow it.

JimmyVik

is_that_so wrote: »

They could hardly throw their hands up now and say it was a disaster. It was their strategy all along, even if the rest of the world would not choose to follow it.

I feel sorry for the families of the people under the ground now unable to throw their hands up.

dubrov

biko wrote: »

Don't worry.
According to the Swedish Social Democratic government their strategy is still a success.

https://time.com/5853595/sweden-coronavirus-lockdown-criticism/

That's not what the article says.

It says it is too early to call which is pretty fair.

Akrasia

dubrov wrote: »

That's not what the article says.

It says it is too early to call which is pretty fair.

dubrov

Either
a) This thing dies out naturally over the summer (=>Sweden strategy was wrong) or
b) It comes flooding back as soon as the controls are relaxed (=>Sweden strategy was right).

Vaccines are years away and risky if rushed.

a) is looking more likely at the moment but we are a long way from certainty

biko

dubrov wrote: »

That's not what the article says.

It says it is too early to call which is pretty fair.

Sorry, the article quotes him objecting to any criticism. How can he object when his country equals the deaths of all his neighbours combined?

The only way the Swedish approach would have worked is if there is a huge second wave that ravages other countries but Swedes have become immune.
However, herd immunity was never the goal nor is it even certain it is achievable.

Stefan just wants to defer everything a year or more so people will have forgotten and they will agree that "it was like a surprise attack" and "sure, it wasn't that bad".

This government have had several scandals recently and always used the same defence - "how were we to know?" ("no-one saw it coming").
This when there are people everyone shouting and pointing at the coming disasters..

The prime minster actually said that again at an interview recently.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvwSg7d_OdU Eng subs

JimmyVik

dubrov wrote: »

Either
a) This thing dies out naturally over the summer (=>Sweden strategy was wrong) or
b) It comes flooding back as soon as the controls are relaxed (=>Sweden strategy was right).

Vaccines are years away and risky if rushed.

a) is looking more likely at the moment but we are a long way from certainty

What are you on.

b) does not mean their strategy was right at all.

charlie14

dubrov wrote: »

Either
a) This thing dies out naturally over the summer (=>Sweden strategy was wrong) or
b) It comes flooding back as soon as the controls are relaxed (=>Sweden strategy was right).

Vaccines are years away and risky if rushed.

a) is looking more likely at the moment but we are a long way from certainty

How would b) (=> Sweden strategy being right ?


If it was to protect the aged and vulnerable, which they claimed, it has not worked.
If it was for economic reasons they are going to be no better than anyone else.
If it was for herd immunity, then their own antibody test results show it has not worked.


Sweden is now the 5th worst effected country in Europe per head of population for Covid-19 deaths.
Their citizens are banned from visiting practically every other country in Europe and no country is going to be too happy with their citizens visiting Sweden anytime soon.
I do not see where any part of Sweden`s strategy could be called a success.

Bit cynical

Sweden seems to be continuing the downward trend in daily deaths from a peak in the second half of April. While still quite high by European standards with only the UK showing comparable figures, the rate in Sweden is now back to what was seen in early April.


Graph is of a 7-day rolling average which smooths out a lot of Sweden's reporting variations.

Source: here

Bit cynical

Bloomberg: ‘Striking’ Crisis Gap Exposed as Swedish Economy Stands Out

"In a report on Monday, Capital Economics presented data that give Sweden an irrefutable edge. From peak to trough, Swedish GDP will shrink 8%; in the U.K. and Italy, the contraction is somewhere between 25% and 30%, according to estimates covering the fourth quarter of 2019 through to the second quarter of 2020. The U.S. is somewhere in the middle, it said."

URL="https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/one-economy-stands-out-as-crisis-reveals-striking-differences"]Source[/URL

I think this is what people miss: you can focus entirely on deaths from this one cause and shut down everything, but the health service depends on a working economy. Without a funded health service you are going to get deaths elsewhere.

dubrov

charlie14 wrote: »

How would b) (=> Sweden strategy being right ?


If it was to protect the aged and vulnerable, which they claimed, it has not worked.
If it was for economic reasons they are going to be no better than anyone else.
If it was for herd immunity, then their own antibody test results show it has not worked.

I was referring to the second one. Like it or not, economic prosperity is strongly correlated with quality and longevity of life. They will be in recession this year alright but it won't be a patch on what we will experience.

PHG

Bit cynical wrote: »

Bloomberg: ‘Striking’ Crisis Gap Exposed as Swedish Economy Stands Out

"In a report on Monday, Capital Economics presented data that give Sweden an irrefutable edge. From peak to trough, Swedish GDP will shrink 8%; in the U.K. and Italy, the contraction is somewhere between 25% and 30%, according to estimates covering the fourth quarter of 2019 through to the second quarter of 2020. The U.S. is somewhere in the middle, it said."

URL="https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/one-economy-stands-out-as-crisis-reveals-striking-differences"]Source[/URL

I think this is what people miss: you can focus entirely on deaths from this one cause and shut down everything, but the health service depends on a working economy. Without a funded health service you are going to get deaths elsewhere.

Yes but Swedens recovery will be around 1.6%, whereas everyone elses will be much higher >6%. I was at an economic online presentation for it last week but remember the above.

charlie14

dubrov wrote: »

I was referring to the second one. Like it or not, economic prosperity is strongly correlated with quality and longevity of life. They will be in recession this year alright but it won't be a patch on what we will experience.

Actually your contention was that if there was a second wave Sweden`s strategy would be proven as correct.
Economic prosperity may be strongly correlated with quality and longevity of life, but it in the case of Sweden when it comes to Covid-19 it has not been noticeable.



I do not know how Bloomberg came up with those numbers for Q2 2020 but the I.M.F. projection of GDP 2020 overall for both Ireland and Sweden is a contraction of 6.5%
Should there be a second wave the O.E.C.D Q2 projection 2021 for Ireland is 8%. For Sweden 7.9%.


No economic differences between Ireland and Sweden from both the I.M.F or the O.E.C.D.in GDP for the present wave, or if there should be a second wave

daithi7

You can only even begin to assess Sweden's strategy by looking at total excess deaths (not just covid ones) versus other countries. You also need to compare things like relative contractions in GDP, increases in unemployment and in the extra debt required during the Corona virus period.

I have yet to see any such an assessment of Sweden versus other countries done to any degree of accuracy. But I've seen a load of simplistic analysis, especially on here, pointing to their higher death rates due to Covid and incorrectly concluding that this proves their strategy has not been successful. It does not. e.g. People die from lockdown measures also such as no cancer screenings and cancelled medical treatments of all kinds, etc.

So, if Sweden's total excess deaths/ capita over this period are lower than other similar countries, and this is achieved with smaller contractions to GDP, lower unemployment &/or taking on less net debt, then their strategy will have been relatively successful. Capiche!?

AFAIK any of this has yet to be fully ascertained at this stage.

charlie14

daithi7 wrote: »

You can only even begin to assess Sweden's strategy by looking at total excess deaths (not just covid ones) versus other countries. You also need to compare things like relative contractions in GDP, increases in unemployment and in the extra debt required during the Corona virus measures months.

I have yet to see such an assessment of Sweden versus other countries done to any degree of accuracy. But I've seen a load of simplistic analysis on here pointing to their higher death rates due to Covid and incorrectly concluding that their strategy has not been successful.

So, if their total excess deaths/ capita over this period are lower than other similar countries, and this is achieved with smaller contractions to GDP, lower unemployment &/or taking on less net debt, then their strategy will have been successful. This has yet to be fully ascertained afaik.

Their GDP is projected to do no better than any other European country for 2020 by both their own central bank, Sveriges Riksbank, and their National Institute of Economic Research. Worse than some.
Sweden is now the 5th. highest of the 44 countries in Europe for Covid-19 deaths per population and their total deaths for the first 5 months of 2020 have exceeded the half year total for 2019.

Where in any of that there is any indication that Sweden`s strategy has,or will be successful ?