Sweden avoiding lockdown

cnocbui

charlie14 wrote: »

Their GDP is projected to do no better than any other European country for 2020 by both their own central bank, Sveriges Riksbank, and their National Institute of Economic Research. Worse than some.
Sweden is now the 5th. highest of the 44 countries in Europe for Covid-19 deaths per population and their total deaths for the first 5 months of 2020 have exceeded the half year total for 2019.

Where in any of that there is any indication that Sweden`s strategy has,or will be successful ?

Lets say that 5 years from now, there is considerable spike in cancer deaths in this country because of a lack of screening and early treatment. What will you say then? Such things are quite likely but are unknowable at this point in time.

It simply is not possible to say what the final outcomes of the various strategies will be at this point of time while situations are still evolving. Only hindsight can confer the requisite clarity of vision.

I don't know what you are getting, gnawing on this fossilized dinosaur femur, but it sure isn't marrow.

It's strange that as soon as the data changes, suddenly so to do the arguments of those who have been defending Sweden's strategy since the beginning - with no acknowledgement of said posters that their previous arguments were incorrect. No 'mea culpa' moments, no evidence whatsoever of reflection on new information - just incessantly changing their arguments as soon as the previous ones are knocked down.

I can't remember what that's called.... oh right, it's moving the goalposts.

charlie14

cnocbui wrote: »

Lets say that 5 years from now, there is considerable spike in cancer deaths in this country because of a lack of screening and early treatment. What will you say then? Such things are quite likely but are unknowable at this point in time.

It simply is not possible to say what the final outcomes of the various strategies will be at this point of time while situations are still evolving. Only hindsight can confer the requisite clarity of vision.

I don't know what you are getting, gnawing on this fossilized dinosaur femur, but it sure isn't marrow.

What is also unknowable is that in 5 years time there may be a major breakthrough in cancer research so what do you propose we compare then? Road death due to lockdown and no lockdown.

What is knowable in the here and now is :


1. Sweden`s deaths from Covid-19
2. Sweden has the 5th highest deaths per head of population in Europe from Covid-19
3. Sweden`s own Central Bank, their Institute for Economic Research, the I.M.F and the O.E.C.D. all see their GDP doing no better than any other European country.
4. Sweden`s supposed primary strategy of protecting the aged and vulnerable has been a failure.
5. Sweden`s total deaths for the first 5 months of 2020 have exceeded the 6 month average for 2019.
6. If as many suspect that Sweden`s primary strategy was herd immunity, Sweden`sown antibody test results show it was "A dream with very little basis in reality"

I do not know what you are getting from your Mystic Meg crystal ball readings, but it seems it has yet to show you anything relating to Sweden`strategy as being a success.

charlie14

Deleted User wrote: »

It's strange that as soon as the data changes, suddenly so to do the arguments of those who have been defending Sweden's strategy since the beginning - with no acknowledgement of said posters that their previous arguments were incorrect. No 'mea culpa' moments, no evidence whatsoever of reflection on new information - just incessantly changing their arguments as soon as the previous ones are knocked down.

I can't remember what that's called.... oh right, it's moving the goalposts.

If they are not on wheels then there have to be a few very sore backs around here at this stage.

cnocbui

charlie14 wrote: »

What is also unknowable is that in 5 years time there may be a major breakthrough in cancer research so what do you propose we compare then? Road death due to lockdown and no lockdown.

What is knowable in the here and now is :


1. Sweden`s deaths from Covid-19
2. Sweden has the 5th highest deaths per head of population in Europe from Covid-19
3. Sweden`s own Central Bank, their Institute for Economic Research, the I.M.F and the O.E.C.D. all see their GDP doing no better than any other European country.
4. Sweden`s supposed primary strategy of protecting the aged and vulnerable has been a failure.
5. Sweden`s total deaths for the first 5 months of 2020 have exceeded the 6 month average for 2019.
6. If as many suspect that Sweden`s primary strategy was herd immunity, Sweden`sown antibody test results show it was "A dream with very little basis in reality"

I do not know what you are getting from your Mystic Meg crystal ball readings, but it seems it has yet to show you anything relating to Sweden`strategy as being a success.

Keep chewing. I don't really care one way or the other. Sweden is a sovereign state, entitled to make it's own decisions concerning it's affairs. It's not your or my business while what they do has no impact on us personally.

dubrov

I don't understand how suppressing economic activity could not have an affect on economic growth.

If the projections for Sweden this year are in line with the rest of Europe, they would have been much lower with a tighter lockdown. Think of all the extra businesses that would have been closed requiring government supports.

dubrov

Deleted User wrote: »

I can't remember what that's called.... oh right, it's moving the goalposts.

Most on here have been arguing that it will take time to tell if the Swedish strategy was correct (at least one year and probably more). You seem to have waited 2 months to make your decision.

thefa

daithi7 wrote: »

You can only even begin to assess Sweden's strategy by looking at total excess deaths (not just covid ones) versus other countries. You also need to compare things like relative contractions in GDP, increases in unemployment and in the extra debt required during the Corona virus period.

I have yet to see any such an assessment of Sweden versus other countries done to any degree of accuracy. But I've seen a load of simplistic analysis, especially on here, pointing to their higher death rates due to Covid and incorrectly concluding that this proves their strategy has not been successful. It does not. e.g. People die from lockdown measures also such as no cancer screenings and cancelled medical treatments of all kinds, etc.

So, if Sweden's total excess deaths/ capita over this period are lower than other similar countries, and this is achieved with smaller contractions to GDP, lower unemployment &/or taking on less net debt, then their strategy will have been relatively successful. Capiche!?

AFAIK any of this has yet to be fully ascertained at this stage.

Post loses credibility given clear bias. Simplistic analysis as described has been used by posters to support their opinion in favor or against Sweden’s approach at different times.

daithi7

thefa wrote: »

Post loses credibility given clear bias. Simplistic analysis as described has been used by posters to support their opinion in favor or against Sweden’s approach at different times.

What loses credibility imho is posters on here 'gnawing at the bone' seeking marrow while continously only quoting Sweden's death rate/ million due to Covid.

When the only way to objectively measure different countries experience of this pandemic is to measure the Total Extra Deaths/ million versus other countries over this period.

This is not done in post after post, after post. It's irritating to say the least, to see some posters repeatedly banging their heads against the wrong wall!!

charlie14

cnocbui wrote: »

Keep chewing. I don't really care one way or the other. Sweden is a sovereign state, entitled to make it's own decisions concerning it's affairs. It's not your or my business while what they do has no impact on us personally.

From your posts I have no difficulty believing you don`t really care one way or the other about the numbers that have died in Sweden due to Covid-19. You only care that a strategy you supported has been shown by Sweden`s on data to be a failure.
When it comes to showing anything to counteract that data, you have posted nothing to chew on.

JimmyVik

Bit cynical wrote: »

Bloomberg: ‘Striking’ Crisis Gap Exposed as Swedish Economy Stands Out

"In a report on Monday, Capital Economics presented data that give Sweden an irrefutable edge. From peak to trough, Swedish GDP will shrink 8%; in the U.K. and Italy, the contraction is somewhere between 25% and 30%, according to estimates covering the fourth quarter of 2019 through to the second quarter of 2020. The U.S. is somewhere in the middle, it said."

URL="https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/one-economy-stands-out-as-crisis-reveals-striking-differences"]Source[/URL

I think this is what people miss: you can focus entirely on deaths from this one cause and shut down everything, but the health service depends on a working economy. Without a funded health service you are going to get deaths elsewhere.

Somebodies been picking cherries.

JimmyVik

dubrov wrote: »

Most on here have been arguing that it will take time to tell if the Swedish strategy was correct (at least one year and probably more). You seem to have waited 2 months to make your decision.

All those people are dead. They wont be back after some time.

Breezin

daithi7 wrote: »

What loses credibility imho is posters on here 'gnawing at the bone' seeking marrow while continously only quoting Sweden's death rate/ million due to Covid.

When the only way to objectively measure different countries experience of this pandemic is to measure the Total Extra Deaths/ million versus other countries over this period.

This is not done in post after post, after post. It's irritating to say the least, to see some posters repeatedly banging their heads against the wrong wall!!

I posted data about this a couple of pages back, but it was blithely ignored by the crew who've appointed themselves in charge of goalposts, a bit like they don't want to talk about unemployment levels now or in the near term, even as they refuse to take a long-term view of the Swedish strategy.



Here it is again: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#map-of-z-scores

cnocbui

Breezin wrote: »

I posted data about this a couple of pages back, but it was blithely ignored by the crew who've appointed themselves in charge of goalposts, a bit like they don't want to talk about unemployment levels now or in the near term, even as they refuse to take a long-term view of the Swedish strategy.

Here it is again: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#map-of-z-scores

They are like pro-lifers, thinking there is some unassailable moral high ground at stake and that they are the sole occupiers of it and need to fight every fact or opinion, as if their lives depended on it. Epic insecurity.

charlie14

dubrov wrote: »

I don't understand how suppressing economic activity could not have an affect on economic growth.

If the projections for Sweden this year are in line with the rest of Europe, they would have been much lower with a tighter lockdown. Think of all the extra businesses that would have been closed requiring government supports.

Sweden`s own Central Bank as well as their independent economic research unit do not see any difference from the rest of Europe.

Understandable really when you consider most, if not all, Sweden`s major employers have shut down and those employees, as well as employees of other business`s that shut down, are receiving state aid same as every other counties.
Those closures will have a major bearing on their export figures.

The business`s that have stayed open such as bars and restaurants, it is debatable how much they have made up for the shortfall. A poster here some time ago posted a banking survey comparing Sweden and Denmark on consumer spending. It found that in Denmark with lockdown the spend was just 4% less than in Sweden.

charlie14

cnocbui wrote: »

They are like pro-lifers, thinking there is some unassailable moral high ground at stake and that they are the sole occupiers of it and need to fight every fact or opinion, as if their lives depended on it. Epic insecurity.

So what level of ground does that leave those that ignore facts in favour of their own opinions on ?

Kermit.de.frog

Sweden reports 102 new deaths.

JimmyVik

Theres a bomb hidden somewhere in the city center set to go off sometime in the next week or so which will definitely kill many people.

Should we

a) Just leave it and let people get blown up. Sure they will probably all be old anyway. We can then determine if our strategy worked afterwards, depending on the amount of people who got killed in the long term.

b) Stop people going into the city center for a while and let the bomb blow up and keep casualties to a minimum and saving many lives.

AdamD

JimmyVik wrote: »

Theres a bomb hidden somewhere in the city center set to go off sometime in the next week or so which will definitely kill many people.

Should we

a) Just leave it and let people get blown up. Sure they will probably all be old anyway. We can then determine if our strategy worked afterwards, depending on the amount of people who got killed in the long term.

b) Stop people going into the city center for a while and let the bomb blow up and keep casualties to a minimum and saving many lives.

If there's one thing I won't miss about Covid its the utterly ridiculous analogies.

growleaves

"Consequentialism is the class of normative ethical theories holding that the consequences of one's conduct are the ultimate basis for any judgment about the rightness or wrongness of that conduct."

Ticking time bomb scenario

JimmyVik

AdamD wrote: »

If there's one thing I won't miss about Covid its the utterly ridiculous analogies.

Perfect analogy for this thread.

greyday

102 deaths, has anyone been fired yet for such an inept strategy?
Looks like they will be close to the best in the world for deaths from Coronavirus shortly.

Kermit.de.frog

The 102 new deaths today are the highest since May 15th, it also means Sweden now has four times the death rate of it's nordic neighbors combined.

greyday

A minor setback for the fanboys of Swedens gamble.

JimmyVik

greyday wrote: »

A minor setback for the fanboys of Swedens gamble.

They are furiously digging as we speak trying to find out if a few of those deaths was from last week or last month, and if they are they will post that and say the numbers are actually less than published, as if those deaths didnt matter.

daithi7

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0603/1145149-coronavirus-sweden/

daithi7

This one is especially for the 'lockdown lifers', enjoy!!

France's scientific council has listed four possible scenarios the country faces regarding the epidemic in the coming months.
In the best-case scenario, the virus will disappear or remain at very low levels. Failing that, a second critical cluster could appear as in eastern France at the start of the epidemic. A third scenario sees a slow deterioration of the general situation in autumn with more hospitalisations. In the worst-case scenario, France returns to a "critical deterioration" of infections and hospital pressure.
De Delfraissy said there was a 50 per cent chance of a second wave this autumn. But even in the worst case, the country would not return to a blanket nationwide lockdown.
He told Le Parisien: "The scientific council, what we are saying is: whatever happens, we will not be able to rerun a blanket lockdown in France.
"The first time, it was essential, we had no choice, but the price we have to pay is too high.
"The population would certainly not accept it, the economic consequences would be major and, even from a health point of view, this is not desirable - do not forget that, apart from Covid, there were all the other patients who had delays in diagnosis during this period."
He added, however, that some areas could see the return of local lockdown measures if they show a cluster of cases, saying: "I am firmly convinced that if it starts up again, it will start up again in the Paris region."

While the virus had not disappeared, he said it was now under control thanks to the targeted testing and tracing strategy now in place but also to the virus itself.
"It is visibly less likely to circulate when temperatures rise. Barring exceptional events, the situation is under control for the next few weeks and even the summer months," he said.
France initially suffered one of the highest levels of infections and deaths in Europe but draconian nationwide lockdown brought case numbers down and the country’s death toll now stands at 29,065, below that of the UK and Italy.
Dr Delfraissy conceded that France had been too slow with its testing programme, saying: "At the beginning of March, we were doing about 4,000 tests a day, whereas the Germans were already at about 70,000. Now we have caught up and are at the same level as them, at last!"
France is now conducting a test and trace strategy, where everyone who tests positive provides a list of contacts who are then called and tested.
This week, it also now rolled out its coronavirus tracing app, StopCovid.
Some scientists believe that the virus will recede during the summer months but a second wave may strike this autumn.
Dr Delfaissy said: "If we look at the history of major pandemics of respiratory viruses, we see that eight out of ten regress spontaneously in European countries during the summer.
"On the other hand, you have five out of ten that recur in the autumn.
"We must remain extremely vigilant

greyday

What is this supposed to prove Daithi?
Is it not obvious that most Countries that imposed lockdowns now have the resources in place to reduce the need for further lockdowns?

What did you expect Tegnell to say?
He was unlikely to admit his strategy has caused premature deaths of a magnitude to his closest neighbours who did not gamble.
We are announcing deaths in the single figures for a while now while Sweden is still announcing a high number of daily deaths that does not look to be improving much week over week.

charlie14

daithi7 wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0603/1145149-coronavirus-sweden/

An interview with Tegnell from 2 weeks ago where in the interim 573 people have died.


The world and it`s mother, (bar a few here), can see how well his strategy is working.

charlie14

daithi7 wrote: »

This one is especially for the 'lockdown lifers', enjoy!!

France's scientific council has listed four possible scenarios the country faces regarding the epidemic in the coming months.
In the best-case scenario, the virus will disappear or remain at very low levels. Failing that, a second critical cluster could appear as in eastern France at the start of the epidemic. A third scenario sees a slow deterioration of the general situation in autumn with more hospitalisations. In the worst-case scenario, France returns to a "critical deterioration" of infections and hospital pressure.
De Delfraissy said there was a 50 per cent chance of a second wave this autumn. But even in the worst case, the country would not return to a blanket nationwide lockdown.
He told Le Parisien: "The scientific council, what we are saying is: whatever happens, we will not be able to rerun a blanket lockdown in France.
"The first time, it was essential, we had no choice, but the price we have to pay is too high.
"The population would certainly not accept it, the economic consequences would be major and, even from a health point of view, this is not desirable - do not forget that, apart from Covid, there were all the other patients who had delays in diagnosis during this period."
He added, however, that some areas could see the return of local lockdown measures if they show a cluster of cases, saying: "I am firmly convinced that if it starts up again, it will start up again in the Paris region."

While the virus had not disappeared, he said it was now under control thanks to the targeted testing and tracing strategy now in place but also to the virus itself.
"It is visibly less likely to circulate when temperatures rise. Barring exceptional events, the situation is under control for the next few weeks and even the summer months," he said.
France initially suffered one of the highest levels of infections and deaths in Europe but draconian nationwide lockdown brought case numbers down and the country’s death toll now stands at 29,065, below that of the UK and Italy.
Dr Delfraissy conceded that France had been too slow with its testing programme, saying: "At the beginning of March, we were doing about 4,000 tests a day, whereas the Germans were already at about 70,000. Now we have caught up and are at the same level as them, at last!"
France is now conducting a test and trace strategy, where everyone who tests positive provides a list of contacts who are then called and tested.
This week, it also now rolled out its coronavirus tracing app, StopCovid.
Some scientists believe that the virus will recede during the summer months but a second wave may strike this autumn.
Dr Delfaissy said: "If we look at the history of major pandemics of respiratory viruses, we see that eight out of ten regress spontaneously in European countries during the summer.
"On the other hand, you have five out of ten that recur in the autumn.
"We must remain extremely vigilant

I have no idea what that is all about.

Nobody is contemplating going back to a complete country-wide lockdown.
You have also missed the point that Sweden is now 5th for Covid-19 deaths per head of population.
Well above France, who it recently replaced at 5th, and getting ever closer to both Italy and Spain.