Sweden avoiding lockdown

joeysoap

Comical Ali has a rival.

cnocbui

Ce he sin wrote: »

No, it's been reported that the mortality rate for those on ventilators fell from 40% to 28% and for those receiving oxygen without ventilation from 25% to 20%. Not all those in ICU, never mind in normal wards, are on ventilation or oxygen and are not though to benefit from the drug.

Great links. Actually yes.

Presenting Characteristics, Comorbidities, and Outcomes Among 5700 Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19 in the New York City Area

Mortality rates for those who received mechanical ventilation in the 18-to-65 and older-than-65 age groups were 76.4% and 97.2%, respectively. Mortality rates for those in the 18-to-65 and older-than-65 age groups who did not receive mechanical ventilation were 1.98% and 26.6%, respectively.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2765184?appId=scweb&appId=scweb

So the average mortality rate of the two groups of patients put on ventilators was 86.8%

Most coronavirus patients who end up on ventilators go on to die, according to several small studies from the U.S., China and Europe.

And many of the patients who continue to live can't be taken off the mechanical breathing machines.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/02/826105278/ventilators-are-no-panacea-for-critically-ill-covid-19-patients?t=1592523113400

Two-thirds of people who were critically ill with coronavirus and needed mechanical ventilation have died, research has found.

The health outcomes of 6,720 Covid-19 patients admitted to intensive care were analysed as part of a report by the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (ICNARC).

Out of the patients included in the study who required advanced respiratory support as part of their treatment, 65.4 per cent – 1,744 people – died, while 923 (34.6 per cent) recovered and were discharged.

https://inews.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-latest-two-thirds-ventilators-died-422176

Polar101

The comparison with other Nordic countries is pretty interesting. Obviously 1:1 comparison isn't possible as Sweden is bigger than the other countries (both area- and populationwise), but it shows you how different the situation is in Sweden.

Currently

Hospitalised:

Denmark: 38
Finland: 26
Norway: 17
Sweden: 1217

in ICU:

Denmark: 3
Finland: 2
Norway: 5
Sweden: 233

Deaths:

Denmark: 600
Finland: 326
Norway: 244
Sweden: 5053

Glenbhoy

Polar101 wrote: »

People keep laughing at the prediction for some reason, and yet we reached 15,000 cases on April 19th, and that was with restrictions. So that sounds like one prediction that would have easily come true.

Indeed, and that's confirmed cases. It's not hard to imagine that we had at least 5 times more cases than those confirmed given testing constraints in the first 8 weeks of the crisis.

biko

What we need to do to get true-ish numbers is to wait for general death stats for the year.
Below are deaths per year for the country

2015 91000
2016 91000
2017 92 000
2018 92 000
2019 89 000

Numbers have been pretty constant at 90K since 1977.
2002 was a very high year with 95000 dead
As Swedish population is increased medical advances improve keeping the 90K figure stable.

Now, if we say the expected average for 2020 is 91K then additional deaths are likely "all" Covid19 deaths.
Around May 2021 we will have those numbers.

What comes next is arguing over what numbers Sweden would have had with a strict lockdown versus what they really got.

Cuddlesworth

biko wrote: »

Around May 2021 we will have those numbers

Nah, they publish weekly figures from their statistics office, similar to the UK and a lot of other European countries. We are actually one of the worst for that type of data.

I haven't confirmed anything but this article has them pretty much bang on with actual deaths, at the start they lagged behind but they caught up eventually.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries

Whats interesting with those figures is the initial lag in Covid death reporting, which I assume could be related to the lack of testing in the beginning regardless of country.

biko

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Nah, they publish weekly figures from their statistics office, similar to the UK and a lot of other European countries.

Those number only show reported deaths yeah? So if you under-count and thus under-report then those numbers won't be real.

Hypotetically, if 2020 show a total number of deaths at 100.000 then we can "kinda" say 9000 people died during the pandemic.
That's an increase of 10% for 2020.

If other countries with lockdown only got an average of 5% "over-death" then it means Sweden had an extra 5% dead because of their strategy.
5% might not sound much but that is thousands of families grieving for lost ones.

is_that_so

Glenbhoy wrote: »

Indeed, and that's confirmed cases. It's not hard to imagine that we had at least 5 times more cases than those confirmed given testing constraints in the first 8 weeks of the crisis.

What actual use is a guess like this? They don't even get all flu' cases annually.

biko

biko wrote: »

https://www.expressen.se/tv/nyheter/tegnell-var-coronastrategi-har-fungerat-valdigt-bra/
Tegnell: Our strategy have worked very well.

Jesus wept

https://www.dw.com/en/swedens-fm-linde-we-managed-to-flatten-the-curve/av-53846751
Sweden’s foreign minister: We managed to flatten the curve

sydthebeat

biko wrote: »

https://www.dw.com/en/swedens-fm-linde-we-managed-to-flatten-the-curve/av-53846751
Sweden’s foreign minister: We managed to flatten the curve

well, if you consider 'plateauing' as 'flattening' then maybe shes right

they are on a constant average of about 60 deaths per day for all the month of May, and they are retrospectively adding to those numbers daily.

and their daily cases are rising.

charlie14

biko wrote: »

https://www.dw.com/en/swedens-fm-linde-we-managed-to-flatten-the-curve/av-53846751
Sweden’s foreign minister: We managed to flatten the curve

Somewhat like Ireland there had been no political opposition to the Swedish strategy but that has changed somewhat which would account for statements such as that.


Early June Sweden`s state broadcaster SVT published a Novus poll where confidence in the Swedish strategy had dropped from 63% in April to 45%.

A few days later in a live broadcast political debate on the 7th June between party leaders, Ulf Kristersson leader of the main opposition party known as the Moderates said "There have been obvious fundamental failures in Sweden`s response"
The leader of the Sweden Democrats Party called for Tegnell to be sacked. Ebba Busch leader of the Christian Democrat Party criticised the Swedish government for deliberately allowing a large spread of the disease.

biko

Swedish Radio asked some local authorities about their COVID numbers.
Most obliged except for a city called Uppsala with population 172000, close to Stockholm.

Communications manager Stefan Berg says that it would increase distress among the residents if they find out where the infection is.
https://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=114&artikel=7496706

When Swedish Radio wrote about this all hell broke lose and now the number will be made available
https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/7497559

In May they had 300 cases at one hospital, since then we don't know because it was sekrit...

Bridge93

No figures at all for June 19?

fisgon

Bridge93 wrote: »

No figures at all for June 19?

Maybe they have finally managed to prove a lot of us wrong and have now defeated the virus - 0 cases, 0 deaths.

bb1234567

No update again from Sweden today

the incredible pudding

It's midsummer, public holiday. Won't get an update til Monday.

mcsean2163

biko wrote: »

Those number only show reported deaths yeah? So if you under-count and thus under-report then those numbers won't be real.

Hypotetically, if 2020 show a total number of deaths at 100.000 then we can "kinda" say 9000 people died during the pandemic.
That's an increase of 10% for 2020.

If other countries with lockdown only got an average of 5% "over-death" then it means Sweden had an extra 5% dead because of their strategy.
5% might not sound much but that is thousands of families grieving for lost ones.

On your last point, in Ireland the average age of death with covid19 was greater than life expectancy. People seem to think nursing homes are some kind of utopia. In fact, 1 in 5 entering a nursing home die within the first 3 months. The last time I checked, 60% of deaths in Ireland were in nursing homes.

It's tragic and sad but it's worth remembering that we do expire. Thankfully the virus hasn't attacked the healthy to the same degree as the Spanish flu but maybe we need a more Swedish approach to the virus now. An approach that allows relatives to visit a dying family member and a return to funerals.

kippy

mcsean2163 wrote: »

On your last point, in Ireland the average age of death with covid19 was greater than life expectancy. People seem to think nursing homes are some kind of utopia. In fact, 1 in 5 entering a nursing home die within the first 3 months. The last time I checked, 60% of deaths in Ireland were in nursing homes.

It's tragic and sad but it's worth remembering that we do expire. Thankfully the virus hasn't attacked the healthy to the same degree as the Spanish flu but maybe we need a more Swedish approach to the virus now. An approach that allows relatives to visit a dying family member and a return to funerals.

You've not read the most recent data on the Swedish approach, have you?

charlie14

mcsean2163 wrote: »

On your last point, in Ireland the average age of death with covid19 was greater than life expectancy. People seem to think nursing homes are some kind of utopia. In fact, 1 in 5 entering a nursing home die within the first 3 months. The last time I checked, 60% of deaths in Ireland were in nursing homes.

It's tragic and sad but it's worth remembering that we do expire. Thankfully the virus hasn't attacked the healthy to the same degree as the Spanish flu but maybe we need a more Swedish approach to the virus now. An approach that allows relatives to visit a dying family member and a return to funerals.

The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing carried out by Trinity College October 2017 found that just 10% of Irish deaths were in nursing homes.
The last life expectancy figures published by the Central Statistics Office were for 2010-2012.
They show male life expectancy at 78.4 years and female 82.8 years.

daithi7

Coronavirus: What Went Wrong

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/qu%C3%A9-sali%C3%B3-mal-coronavirus-y-el-mundo-despu%C3%A9s-del-par%C3%B3n-jose-gefaell

is_that_so

daithi7 wrote: »

Coronavirus: What Went Wrong

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/qu%C3%A9-sali%C3%B3-mal-coronavirus-y-el-mundo-despu%C3%A9s-del-par%C3%B3n-jose-gefaell

It's just another "let me show you the bits that prove I am right" article. God knows we've had lots of those. It's also a bit dubious for a scientist to pronounce on something that has yet to finish. Notable that only one of the signatories has any public health input but he has to agree with it as it's his strategy!

PhoenixParker

charlie14 wrote: »

The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing carried out by Trinity College October 2017 found that just 10% of Irish deaths were in nursing homes.
The last life expectancy figures published by the Central Statistics Office were for 2010-2012.
They show male life expectancy at 78.4 years and female 82.8 years.

This isn’t true.
The CSO publish data on place of occurrence for deaths.

https://statbank.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=VSD36&PLanguage=0

I don’t have time to do the calculations right now but 30,400 deaths in 2017, 5,200 of them in nursing homes (17%). That’s without adding in 1782 from community hospitals that are basically nursing homes or any portion of hospital deaths who would often be nursing home residents who were transferred to hospital.

hmmm

charlie14 wrote: »

Early June Sweden`s state broadcaster SVT published a Novus poll where confidence in the Swedish strategy had dropped from 63% in April to 45%.

A few days later in a live broadcast political debate on the 7th June between party leaders, Ulf Kristersson leader of the main opposition party known as the Moderates said "There have been obvious fundamental failures in Sweden`s response".

It's disappointing it didn't work as it would have been a template for elsewhere, but the Swedish strategy has clearly failed to achieve its objectives.

One of the primary objectives was to reduce the economic damage. Sweden is now in an unfortunate position where it has suffered largely the same economic damage as other countries, and haven't even benefited from a suppression of the virus as a consequence.

Hindsight makes everything easy, but if you're going to stick your neck out and go for a strategy which is different to everyone else you know the political consequences if it goes wrong - particularly where you are taking chances with people's health.

kippy

hmmm wrote: »

It's disappointing it didn't work as it would have been a template for elsewhere, but the Swedish strategy has clearly failed to achieve its objectives.

One of the primary objectives was to reduce the economic damage. Sweden is now in an unfortunate position where it has suffered largely the same economic damage as other countries, and haven't even benefited from a suppression of the virus as a consequence.

Hindsight makes everything easy, but if you're going to stick your neck out and go for a strategy which is different to everyone else you know the political consequences if it goes wrong - particularly where you are taking chances with people's health.

I said this months ago but EVEN if the Swedes had managed to control the virus using their own methods, the they were not isolated from the effects on the global economy.

is_that_so

hmmm wrote: »

It's disappointing it didn't work as it would have been a template for elsewhere, but the Swedish strategy has clearly failed to achieve its objectives.

One of the primary objectives was to reduce the economic damage. Sweden is now in an unfortunate position where it has suffered largely the same economic damage as other countries, and haven't even benefited from a suppression of the virus as a consequence.

Hindsight makes everything easy, but if you're going to stick your neck out and go for a strategy which is different to everyone else you know the political consequences if it goes wrong - particularly where you are taking chances with people's health.

Their problem, in contrast with Britain, is that it was too far along for them to change tack.

Bit cynical

Sweden reports first signs of economic recovery after coronavirus crash

Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson said the government now expected the Swedish economy to shrink by six percent in 2020, instead of by around seven percent as projected in April.

"Lately we've seen some positive signals that suggest that we've reached the bottom and that we are now seeing a turn upwards," Andersson told a press conference.

They are still going to see a contraction of 6% in the year which of course is not good. They can't do much about being affected by collapsed economies in other parts of Europe.

charlie14

PhoenixParker wrote: »

This isn’t true.
The CSO publish data on place of occurrence for deaths.

https://statbank.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=VSD36&PLanguage=0

I don’t have time to do the calculations right now but 30,400 deaths in 2017, 5,200 of them in nursing homes (17%). That’s without adding in 1782 from community hospitals that are basically nursing homes or any portion of hospital deaths who would often be nursing home residents who were transferred to hospital.

My 10% figure was from a Trinity College Dublin 2017 study on longitudinal aging in Ireland.
Whether 10% or 17% both are a long way from the 60% claimed by the poster I was replying too.

greyday

https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/sweden-public-approval-of-lax-coronavirus-policies-is-waning-a-9fada573-26da-4bfc-89b9-50062197cf99

Tegnell still confident his strategy is working....although he does mention the Government are responsible for the decision to cull the elderly.

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

Sweden reports first signs of economic recovery after coronavirus crash

Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson said the government now expected the Swedish economy to shrink by six percent in 2020, instead of by around seven percent as projected in April.

"Lately we've seen some positive signals that suggest that we've reached the bottom and that we are now seeing a turn upwards," Andersson told a press conference.

They are still going to see a contraction of 6% in the year which of course is not good. They can't do much about being affected by collapsed economies in other parts of Europe.

With the numbers of new cases and still high deaths in comparison to others, it`s debatable if Sweden really have reached the bottom and are seeing a turn upwards
Their Central Bank predictions were for 7% best and 9.7% worst case dependent on how long the present situation continued in Sweden.

That is how the global economy works.
Something that those predicting economic benefit from Sweden`s strategy ignored.
There are many other countries in Europe who can feel harder done by than Sweden who will also see GDP contraction, but have had less deaths per capita than Sweden.

cnocbui

If Sweden maintained cancer screening and care, they will have taken the correct course:

The 22 Covid-19 deaths will pale in comparison to the wave of deaths from cancer that will hit New Zealand, a respected oncologist predicts.

Recently retired oncologist Dr David Lamb, who worked in the cancer sector for more than 40 years, was the head of radiation oncology at Wellington Cancer Centre, and currently holds an academic position at Victoria University, has called the Ministry of Health's handling of cancer diagnostics during lockdown a “disgrace”. He says the move has signed the death warrant for hundreds of Kiwis.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/300037886/ministrys-handling-of-cancer-diagnosis-during-lockdown-a-disgrace-top-oncologist-says

Ireland will probably be just as bad.