Sweden avoiding lockdown

Hurrache

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Thanks to BLM, good job

Gas, on another thread in this forum someone is using the argument that there's no issue with Covid-19 because we haven't seen a surge despite BLM marches.

normanoffside

Hurrache wrote: »

Gas, on another thread in this forum someone is using the argument that there's no issue with Covid-19 because we haven't seen a surge despite BLM marches.

And that poster is right.

normanoffside

cnocbui wrote: »

Germany goes into lockdown again in sympathy with Sweden's strategy. The USA tries to out do Germany's support for Sweden by going into meltdown mode with a 25% surge in cases.

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Thanks to BLM, good job

No, Two districts in one region have introduced some restrictions in response to meat factory outbreaks.

Hurrache

normanoffside wrote: »

And that poster is right.

I'm confused, was the surge because of BLM, or thanking BLM for showing there's no issue?

normanoffside

Hurrache wrote: »

I'm confused, was the surge because of BLM, or thanking BLM for showing there's no issue?

So are these localised surges due to BLM marches in Gütersloh and Warendorf or are they due to the Meat plants in which all the cases were identified?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53149762

Hurrache

normanoffside wrote: »

So are these localised surges due to BLM marches due to the Meat plants in which all the cases were identified?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53149762

Bovine Lifes Matters?

Harry Palmr

Still no stats for yesterday on worldometers

charlie14

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Still no stats for yesterday on worldometers

The Local Se has deaths now at 5209 and confirmed cases at 62,324.

Ribs1234

charlie14 wrote: »

The Local Se has deaths now at 5209 and confirmed cases at 62,324.

So approximately 48 more deaths and 1500 more cases.

Harry Palmr

343 new cases today, 1,273 yesterday

Their daily numbers go up and down to a crazy extent.

Polar101

Harry Palmr wrote: »

343 new cases today, 1,273 yesterday

Their daily numbers go up and down to a crazy extent.

Midsummer last weekend. They didn't report during the weekend, so most likely less referrals done as well.

tobefrank321

biko wrote: »

A comparison with Ireland

Sweden at 496.21 deaths per million
Ireland at 353.35 death per million

Could we say Sweden's approach have cost them 140 extra deaths per million?
In all approx 1400 people so far?

There is no question Ireland will have a second wave, once travel restrictions are eased both within Ireland and to/from Ireland. Other European countries are now beginning to see this second wave, and yesterday new cases increased for the first time in over a month in Europe. The Southern USA is also seeing a new wave.

We are in a good spot in Ireland and other countries compared to Sweden but we are far from out of the woods.

Mic 1972

Hurrache wrote: »

I'm confused, was the surge because of BLM, or thanking BLM for showing there's no issue?

BLM protests are only going to spread the virus further, look at the US stats to have an idea
Then again, protesters will be the ones affected the most

MOH

Mic 1972 wrote: »

BLM protests are only going to spread the virus further, look at the US stats to have an idea
Then again, protesters will be the ones affected the most

Unfortunately* not. They might contact the virus, but given the demographics of those protesting they're unlikely to suffer too much. It's the people they pass it on to who are likely to suffer the most.

(*Unfortunately because if someone wants to risk their life protesting for a cause they believe in I have nothing but respect for them. When they're primarily risking other people's lives that respect is replaced with contempt)

Mic 1972

MOH wrote: »

Unfortunately* not. They might contact the virus, but given the demographics of those protesting they're unlikely to suffer too much. It's the people they pass it on to who are likely to suffer the most.

(*Unfortunately because if someone wants to risk their life protesting for a cause they believe in I have nothing but respect for them. When they're primarily risking other people's lives that respect is replaced with contempt)

Allegedly Africa American are more likely to due for Covid, but hey... it's their call after all

gmisk

Polar101 wrote: »

Midsummer last weekend. They didn't report during the weekend, so most likely less referrals done as well.

If it was anything like that film...the coronavirus would be the least of their worries.

gmisk

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Allegedly Africa American are more likely to due for Covid, but hey... it's their call after all

In the UK anyway BAME people occupy a lot of key worker roles in the NHS and social care so there probably more exposed to covid-19 so probably more likely to be diagnosed.

Bit cynical

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Their daily numbers go up and down to a crazy extent.

This is why you need to look at rolling averages of a seven days or more and also look at deaths per day as opposed to cases which rely on testing numbers and how they are targeted. Still not perfect, of course, but general trends become visible.

Regarding the graph, there's still an overall downward trend in the numbers which is set to continue by the looks of things.

bb1234567

gmisk wrote: »

In the UK anyway BAME people occupy a lot of key worker roles in the NHS and social care so there probably more exposed to covid-19 so probably more likely to be diagnosed.

Non white peoples are at much higher risk of complications than white Europeans. 50% of deaths in India are under 60 years old , 31% of deaths in Brazil are under 60 years old

Across Europe only 5% of deaths have been under 60

Bit cynical

bb1234567 wrote: »

Non white peoples are at much higher risk of complications than white Europeans. 50% of deaths in India are under 60 years old , 31% of deaths in Brazil are under 60 years old

Across Europe only 5% of deaths have been under 60

Vastly different health services in Brazil and India compared to most European countries for the average person.

bb1234567

Bit cynical wrote: »

Vastly different health services in Brazil and India compared to most European countries for the average person.

It does not explain the high death rate among the under 60 cohort. Very few people in the under 60 age group in Europe even needed hospital attention, they recovered fine on their own, so the good healtcare was not really relevant here. Clearly in the developing world a much higher proprtion of younger people are requiring medical attention. Maybe if they lived somewhere with good healthcare many more of them would have survived, but either way young people in the developing world are being hospitalsied at much higher rates than young Europeans.

Anyway it's not just a theory, data from the US and UK has shown that non white people are at much higher risk of suffering complications from COVID, even if they are young(under 60 is what I'm calling young in this context). So it makes sense that in countries where these ethnic groups are a majority they are seeing higher death rates than in Europe.
https://www.wxxinews.org/post/african-americans-dying-covid-19-almost-triple-rate-white-people-monroe-county

Bit cynical

bb1234567 wrote: »

It does not explain the high death rate among the under 60 cohort. Very few people in the under 60 age group in Europe even needed hospital attention, they recovered fine on their own, so the good healtcare was not really relevant here. Clearly in the developing world a much higher proprtion of younger people are requiring medical attention. Maybe if they lived somewhere with good healthcare many more of them would have survived, but either way young people in the developing world are being hospitalsied at much higher rates than young Europeans.

Anyway it's not just a theory, data from the US and UK has shown that non white people are at much higher risk of suffering complications from COVID, even if they are young(under 60 is what I'm calling young in this context). So it makes sense that in countries where these ethnic groups are a majority they are seeing higher death rates than in Europe.

I think there's two factors at play.

In developing countries if you are sick with the virus and under 60 you may still need medical help. If that medical help is not available you may still die of it whereas in developed countries you will probably get the help you need.

If you are very old, even in countries with comprehensive medical services, these may not be enough and you may still die. Therefore when comparing countries, advanced medical care would have the effect of raising the age threshold as it were.

On the other hand, within countries, immigrant groups may have worse living conditions and different working conditions than native born.

I'm not saying there are no genetic factors but these other factors need to be taken into account.

is_that_so

Looks like the Swedes themselves are beginning to question and doubt the approach.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/26/swedes-rapidly-losing-trust-in-covid-19-strategy-poll-finds

JimmyVik

bb1234567 wrote: »

It does not explain the high death rate among the under 60 cohort. Very few people in the under 60 age group in Europe even needed hospital attention, they recovered fine on their own, so the good healtcare was not really relevant here. Clearly in the developing world a much higher proprtion of younger people are requiring medical attention. Maybe if they lived somewhere with good healthcare many more of them would have survived, but either way young people in the developing world are being hospitalsied at much higher rates than young Europeans.

Anyway it's not just a theory, data from the US and UK has shown that non white people are at much higher risk of suffering complications from COVID, even if they are young(under 60 is what I'm calling young in this context). So it makes sense that in countries where these ethnic groups are a majority they are seeing higher death rates than in Europe.
https://www.wxxinews.org/post/african-americans-dying-covid-19-almost-triple-rate-white-people-monroe-county

In India old is over 50.
Old people live with their families, sharing small spaces with lots of people.
If anyone goes into hospital in India a relative has to look after them. Feed, wash, give them medicine etc. The nurses dont do what they do in other countries. Usually with a family the children and adults are out working so its the old member of the family that goes to do the looking after in the hospital when one of them goes in, so now you have old people as exposed as healthcare workers. And the hospitals are packed with patients and relatives all through the wards and the halls.

Couldnt tell you what its like in Brazil. But thats what it is like in India.

VillageIdiot71

JimmyVik wrote: »

Couldnt tell you what its like in Brazil. But thats what it is like in India.

I suspect another factor is the age structure of the population. Average age in India is 29 years; in Brazil its 31 years. Average age in Europe is over 40 years.

In Brazil, only 9% of the population is aged over 65. In India its 6%.

By comparison, about 20% of the population of the EU is aged over 65.

So, if 50% of the deaths are under sixty that's quite a lot, but it still means that about 50% of the deaths come from the 6% of the population that are elderly.

In other words, it always seems to be hugely concentrated in the older population.

VillageIdiot71

Bit cynical wrote: »

This is why you need to look at rolling averages of a seven days or more and also look at deaths per day as opposed to cases which rely on testing numbers and how they are targeted. Still not perfect, of course, but general trends become visible.

Regarding the graph, there's still an overall downward trend in the numbers which is set to continue by the looks of things.

For me, that graph summarises all that needs to be said on this topic.

Bit cynical

charlie14 wrote: »

With the numbers of new cases and still high deaths in comparison to others, it`s debatable if Sweden really have reached the bottom and are seeing a turn upwards
Their Central Bank predictions were for 7% best and 9.7% worst case dependent on how long the present situation continued in Sweden.

That is how the global economy works.
Something that those predicting economic benefit from Sweden`s strategy ignored.
There are many other countries in Europe who can feel harder done by than Sweden who will also see GDP contraction, but have had less deaths per capita than Sweden.

Sweden's department of finance have updated figures for Sweden's GDP of -6% for the year.

https://www.thelocal.se/20200618/sweden-reports-first-positive-signs-of-economic-recovery-after-corona-crash

The IMF have also revised downwards a lot of forecasts for other countries although they don't include Sweden in their figures.

France –12.5
Germany –7.8
Italy –12.8
Netherlands –7.7
Spain –12.8
United Kingdom –10.2

So the general trend in the forecasts is that Sweden is getting better as more is known and other countries like France and Italy are getting worse in terms of GDP.

Sweden's -6% is actually not too bad considering the economic devastation of the surrounding countries.

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

Sweden's department of finance have updated figures for Sweden's GDP of -6% for the year.

https://www.thelocal.se/20200618/sweden-reports-first-positive-signs-of-economic-recovery-after-corona-crash

The IMF have also revised downwards a lot of forecasts for other countries although they don't include Sweden in their figures.

France –12.5
Germany –7.8
Italy –12.8
Netherlands –7.7
Spain –12.8
United Kingdom –10.2

So the general trend in the forecasts is that Sweden is getting better as more is known and other countries like France and Italy are getting worse in terms of GDP.

Sweden's -6% is actually not too bad considering the economic devastation of the surrounding countries.

I saw that, and if they are correct it is not that bad in fairness.
It might be worth noting though that is a projection from the Dept of Finance of a government that backed this strategy.
Their Central bank had a gloomier worst case figure of -9.7% depending on how long the present Covid-10 situation prevailed in Sweden.

I saw a few reports that Sweden are not being projected to bounce back next year as well as many others in Europe though.
Statista for example has their GDP 2021 growth at 4.3% whereas Ireland`s is 6.1%

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

I saw that, and if they are correct it is not that bad in fairness.
It might be worth noting though that is a projection from the Dept of Finance of a government that backed this strategy.
Their Central bank had a gloomier worst case figure of -9.7% depending on how long the present Covid-10 situation prevailed in Sweden.

I saw a few reports that Sweden are not being projected to bounce back next year as well as many others in Europe though.
Statista for example has their GDP 2021 growth at 4.3% whereas Ireland`s is 6.1%

I saw a report somewhere that Sweden's hospitality industry, particularly hotels, held up reasonably well during the covid peak, possibly the only country in the world where hotel bookings didn't collapse to virtually zero.

I would say a lot of Swedish businesses were saved, small businesses like cafes and small hotels. We can't say the same in other countries where large numbers of businesses have gone to the wall because of covid 19.

sydthebeat

its very worrying when sweden are so far behind in their death reporting.

i have been keeping an eye on the dates of 28th and 29th April as a sample investigation into their reporting.

They initially reported these days in the high 20's low 30's... but were at 82 each for the last couple of weeks.

However just checking today and the 29th has gone up to 84, which means 2 additional deaths have been added to that date in the last few days... so one has to ask... how inept is the administration if there are historical deaths been added to the numbers a whole 58 days after the death occurs??

is it a deliberate attempt to try to hide deaths over time, like painting another layer onto already horrific numbers?