Sweden avoiding lockdown

cgcsb

Bushmaster64 wrote: »

How much bigger is Sweden than Ireland? Ireland has much more of a dense population than Sweden and still doing better than them.

Lots of left wing Sweden lovers are going to be very disappointed at the end of all this to see how the poster child for 'caring' socialism put the economy ahead of the people.

But who were the people left behind? answ: old folks, who were the generation that used forced sterilisation to reduce the welfare bill.

biko

cgcsb wrote: »

I suppose it frees up more social housing units

In a sense yes, and a freelance reporter for Sweden television couldn't be happier that old folks die

if old people die there will be jobs opened up

and

think about all the apartments that will be vacated when the old folks die. I'm beginning to think this virus is God's gift to millennials and Gen Z

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fnyadagbladet.se%2Finrikes%2Fsvt-journalist-jublar-over-att-gamla-dor-av-coronaviruset%2F

growleaves

The Swedish really can't lose with their current tactic.

If they fall below the European average death rate they will be lauded.
If they fall on average, or maybe a tad high, they will be lauded because they didn't lock down.
If they end up much higher they will just claim "we tried to save our economy".

They've been around the middle of the European average the whole time, and may well stay there. Making the rest of Europe look absurd.

Also if deaths spike, many people won't accept the "economy" justification. They didn't accept it when it was Dominic Cummings trying it.

growleaves

In a sense yes, and a freelance reporter for Sweden television couldn't be happier that old folks die

Despicable.

wakka12

Sweden reports another 130 death today

biko

1347 dead out of 12672 reported cases
10.6 death rate

biko

In case anyone wonders if Sweden is doing something wrong, they are better than others.

Deaths in the corona virus are measured in various ways around the globe, but no one can measure as accurately as Sweden, according to state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell.

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.vasabladet.fi%2FArtikel%2FVisa%2F363858

2u2me

biko wrote: »

1347 dead out of 12672 reported cases
10.6 death rate

If their testing is not good no point using that.

I had a look at the trend in deaths, doesn't look good. About a doubling every week.

wakka12

biko wrote: »

In case anyone wonders if Sweden is doing something wrong, they are better than others.


https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.vasabladet.fi%2FArtikel%2FVisa%2F363858

Like us, it just means the number of deaths is even worse outside of Sweden and Ireland than is thought..as we are are counting nursing and home deaths. Id say its wrong to say the situation in Ireland and Sweden is 'better', they are simply more accurate, the number of deaths in Sweden and Ireland from coronavirus is a lot over the last 5 weeks. In Spain, Italy, UK, Belgium, its astounding

biko

One of my favs Tubers delves into the Swedish situation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OJbkEEewzlE

biko

biko wrote: »

In case anyone wonders if Sweden is doing something wrong, they are better than others.


https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.vasabladet.fi%2FArtikel%2FVisa%2F363858

2u2me wrote: »

If their testing is not good no point using that.

You must have missed my post so I quoted it for you.
Sweden is measuring better than anyone else.
Don't doubt Sweden again

Memnoch

biko wrote: »

You must have missed my post so I quoted it for you.
Sweden is measuring better than anyone else.
Don't doubt Sweden again

That article is behind a pay wall. Can you please post the relevant bits which shows how they are accurate?

Last week they had done 54,700 tests. Currently they are at 74,600. So that is about 20,000 tests in one week. We are criticizing the UK for not doing that many in one day.

In comparison, Norway have conducted 130,000 tests.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

From an outsider's perspective they seem to be under testing severely.

wakka12

Memnoch wrote: »

That article is behind a pay wall. Can you please post the relevant bits which shows how they are accurate?

Last week they had done 54,700 tests. Currently they are at 74,600. So that is about 20,000 tests in one week. We are criticizing the UK for not doing that many in one day.

In comparison, Norway have conducted 130,000 tests.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

From an outsider's perspective they seem to be under testing severely.

I think the article refers to Swedens reporting of deaths specifically

Memnoch

wakka12 wrote: »

I think the article refers to Swedens reporting of deaths specifically

I fail to see how they can be measuring mortality figures accurately if they are severely under testing?

Perhaps the article clarifies this?

Glenbhoy

wakka12 wrote: »

I think the article refers to Swedens reporting of deaths specifically

And it seems to be quoting the guy behind Sweden's strategy, so whilst maybe accurate, it's not the 3rd party verification that would be useful.

biko

This RTE article looks at Sweden's efforts so far.
https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0414/1130498-sweden-approach-coronavirus/

"We do not have a strategy that aims at herd immunity at all"
Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde

"Partly that we are on different places on the exposition curve, partly that we in Sweden, unfortunately, have had a large spread of contagion in elderly homes, something you have not seen in the other Nordic countries. And this we, of course, continue to analyse, why Swedish elderly homes have been exposed so much compared to other countries.
Sweden’s chief epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell

and the opposition

"We don't have a choice, we have to close Stockholm right now," said Cecilia Soderberg-Naucler, Professor of Microbial Pathogenesis at the Karolinska Institute.

"We must establish control over the situation, we cannot head in to a situation where we get complete chaos. No one has tried this route, so why should we test it first in Sweden, without informed consent?" she said.

Breezin

It's tempting, and probably comforting, to think that because we are 'doing more' we ultimately will be more effective in fighting the virus. But the Swedes are quite honest in saying there are unknowns attached to both approaches. From Business Insider:

Tegnell, the chief epidemiologist, insists that Sweden's approach still seems to make sense, though he also acknowledges that the world is in uncharted territory with the virus.
He argues that while Sweden might have more infections in the short term, it will not face the risk of a huge infection spike that Denmark might face once its lockdown is lifted.

Lars Ostergaard, chief consultant and professor at the Department of Infectious Diseases at Aarhus University Hospital in Denmark, agrees it is too soon to know which approach is best.

"Every day a person is not being infected because of the strict lockdown, we are a day closer to a cure," Ostergaard said, underlining the advantage of the Danish approach. But he acknowledges that the long-term consequences of a locked-down community could also be "substantial."

"There is no right or wrong way," Ostergaard said. "No one has walked this path before, and only the aftermath will show who made the best decision."

Meanwhile, have a look at those 'anti-social' Swedes selfishly enjoying themselves... If it's a 50/50, I know which option I prefer.

growleaves

growleaves wrote: »

I didn't say they do. Air pollution is a risk factor for victims of respiratory diseases hence it affects how many people will end up in ICU, and it differs between countries.

Then why were you quoting me?

Pointless abuse.

It's not abuse, don't post nonsensical ramblings that appear to have nothing to do with the post quoted.

coastwatch

Memnoch wrote: »

That article is behind a pay wall. Can you please post the relevant bits which shows how they are accurate?

Last week they had done 54,700 tests. Currently they are at 74,600. So that is about 20,000 tests in one week. We are criticizing the UK for not doing that many in one day.

In comparison, Norway have conducted 130,000 tests.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

From an outsider's perspective they seem to be under testing severely.

Biko was being (very very) sarcastic about the claim by Sweden's state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, that they are measuring the spread more accurately than anywhere else.

Biko is in Norway btw.

Att vara en hest

again.. You don't get the death rate by dividing death by known cases... You need total case, which is a big X - especially in the case of Sweden where the amount of testing is very low.

There's nothing to say that Sweden's death rate is any higher than other countries, so far the intensive care units are not overcrowded etc.. All this talk about flattening the curve was with the goal to not overwhelm the healthcare system right? It's now 2(+) months since infection started spreading in Sweden and the healthcare system is not overwhelmed despite fewer restrictions than other countries... Maybe herd immunity will work out for Sweden in the end?

I know you'd love to see Sweden fail Biko and I get that you don't like the current government, but this tactic is not chosen by the government but rather FHM.

CraftySue

With the HIV virus, it was discovered Nordic countries had a higher percentage of natural immunity, with the Swedish community having the highest level of immunity with approximately 10% of their population immune to the HIV virus. This was put down as a throw back to various medieval plagues. I wonder if we'll find Sweden, along with other Nordic countries might have a similar natural community immunity to the coronavirus.

sydthebeat

Att, I'm assuming your either in Sweden or Swedish?

Can you clarify if what was reported about karolinska hospitals triage policy was correct?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2020/04/12/2241617/elderly-coronavirus-patients-not-receiving-intensive-care-in-sweden-report/amp

biko

Att vara en hest wrote: »

again.. You don't get the death rate by dividing death by known cases... You need total case, which is a big X - especially in the case of Sweden where the amount of testing is very low.

When you cannot measure with unknown then you can measure with known variables. I find it a tad defeatist to say that because the total cases isn't know we can't measure at all.
We do have measuring points, known cases and deaths among known cases.
Possibly we can even extrapolate from these numbers to real life - unknown real number cases and unknown real number deaths.

Att vara en hest wrote: »

I know you'd love to see Sweden fail Biko and I get that you don't like the current government, but this tactic is not chosen by the government but rather FHM.

I don't like the Swedish government's approach, you're right. I think they a hiding behind FHM and their approach seems reckless.
That doesn't mean I want them to fail. I want someone more cautious to take over, like Cecilia Soderberg-Naucler.

Sweden's numbers indicates to me they are heading in the wrong direction, and I think it means unnecessary suffering for the most vulnerable - the old folks.

IAMAMORON

CraftySue wrote: »

With the HIV virus, it was discovered Nordic countries had a higher percentage of natural immunity, with the Swedish community having the highest level of immunity with approximately 10% of their population immune to the HIV virus. This was put down as a throw back to various medieval plagues. I wonder if we'll find Sweden, along with other Nordic countries might have a similar natural community immunity to the coronavirus.

LINK PLEASE

wakka12

CraftySue wrote: »

With the HIV virus, it was discovered Nordic countries had a higher percentage of natural immunity, with the Swedish community having the highest level of immunity with approximately 10% of their population immune to the HIV virus. This was put down as a throw back to various medieval plagues. I wonder if we'll find Sweden, along with other Nordic countries might have a similar natural community immunity to the coronavirus.

This has to be a joke surely. Humans cannot have natural immunity to a new disease , this isnt a scifi movie

2u2me

IAMAMORON wrote: »

LINK PLEASE

I don't see what's so unbelievable about this.

Apparently Americans and Asians are more lactose-intolerant than Europeans as they've been exposed to dairy for shorter time frame.

I'd imagine when they study populations you'll see small differences.

CraftySue

IAMAMORON wrote: »

LINK PLEASE

It's from reading Richard Dawkins, but there is information on the internet relating to the same. A higher percentage of those in Nordic countries had a natural immunity to the HIV virus, Sweden had a 10% immunity, this gradually reduced throughout Europe, until you reached Africa which had a 0% immunity to HIV. This all ties into how countries were affected previously to different medieval plagues years ago, and how people develop immunity. We might find it's a similar thing with Nordic countries to the coronavirus.

Not,ideal- but here is a link which relates somewhat to what I'm trying to get at.
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2005-03/uol-bdw031005.php

IAMAMORON

CraftySue wrote: »

It's from reading Richard Dawkins, but there is information on the internet relating to the same. A higher percentage of those in Nordic countries had a natural immunity to the HIV virus, Sweden had a 10% immunity, this gradually reduced throughout Europe, until you reached Africa which had a 0% immunity to HIV. This all ties into how countries were affected previously to different medieval plagues years ago, and how people develop immunity. We might find it's a similar thing with Nordic countries to the coronavirus.

Not,ideal- but here is a link which relates somewhat to what I'm trying to get at.
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2005-03/uol-bdw031005.php

That article was released 15 years ago. I would not be taking any chances if I were anyone, even if it is gospel it states that 90% of Scandinavians are susceptible to HIV infection.

HIV is also a retro virus, Covid 19 isn't.

It is a bad example, but there are virus's which certain communities and ethnicity will handle better than others, but no golden rules either.

Thanks for posting the link, it was interesting to read.

CraftySue

IAMAMORON wrote: »

It is a bad example, but there are virus's which certain communities and ethnicity will handle better than others, but no golden rules either.

I guess that was the point I was trying to make- from previous events in history some countries may have developed a certain immunity, which maybe why countries like Sweden can be less restrictive, or why Denmark has had low numbers and coming out of lockdown, and why countries closer to the Mediterranean had such a high death toll

HIV is also a retro virus, Covid 19 isn't.

The Swedish immunity to HIV most likely came from the bubonic plague, which .was a bacterial disease rather than a virus, but I think the science is that sometimes the antibodies developed to fight one disease can sometimes neutralise and fight other virus'/bacteria.
BCG vaccines are being researched at as a possibility to fight Covid 19. The BCG vaccine was used to fight tuberculosis, which is a bacterial disease , but researchers are looking into the possibility that the antibodies created may also reduce Covid -19 symptoms, and it may be a reason why at present Ireland has fewer deaths than other countries.

Like you said, not great examples, but I just to throw something else into the mix as to why Sweden might not need a full lockdown.

biko

biko wrote: »

1347 dead out of 12672 reported cases
10.6 death rate

133 deaths per million, Ireland is 98 or something.
They're over 33% higher then us...... Likely to worsen too IMO given recent days tally.

Blut2

Augeo wrote: »

133 deaths per million, Ireland is 98 or something.
They're over 33% higher then us...... Likely to worsen too IMO given recent days tally.

With no vaccine in sight for 18 months (at best), and quarantines having to loosen up for economic/psychological reasons everywhere a lot sooner than that, other countries will catch up to Sweden's per capita death rate very quickly though.

Sweden still haven't hit ICU capacity yet, which is the main thing - none of their deaths yet are "preventable" in that sense. They're all deaths that will/would have occurred anyway as the % infected gradually increases in the population.

loyatemu

Sweden was discussed on Prime Time last night, with interviews with a couple of relevant Swedes. They argued they are taking measures, just more targetted ones, but acknowledged it's a higher risk strategy.

Also an interesting debate on the program between an English pathology guy and Frank Skinner TCD immunologist Luke O'Neill about whether the lockdown is possibly doing more harm than good.

I think the elephant in the room in both debates is Italy; even if the virus is nowhere near as deadly as first feared, we've still seen what happens if you don't react quickly enough, what government is going to risk that (well, the Swedish one as it turns out).

Danzy

wakka12 wrote: »

This has to be a joke surely. Humans cannot have natural immunity to a new disease , this isnt a scifi movie

They can have what it takes to not get sick from it.

That's often true of all diseases.

It's far from science fiction, it's basic biology.

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2005-03/uol-bdw031005.php

Sue gave it already above.

Heard a podcast with a swedish Doctor saying how 1/4 of the case fatalities were in the Somali population in Sweden.

That could be genetic, it could also be down to them not listening to social distancing, hygienic practice etc. Yet many others there do not accept Swedish norms.

Kivaro

Danzy wrote: »

Heard a podcast with a swedish Doctor saying how 1/4 of the case fatalities were in the Somali population in Sweden.

That could be genetic, it could also be down to them not listening to social distancing, hygienic practice etc. Yet many others there do not accept Swedish norms.

This could also be a reason why people of African ancestry are also bearing the brunt on deaths in New York city and other areas of the world. Socioeconomic factors also play a role.

biko

Swedish timeline
January 31, 2020: The first Swedish case was confirmed in Jönköping.

March 6: Domestic infection spread was confirmed for the first time.

March 10: Relatives are advised against hospital visits.

March 11: The first death occurred in Stockholm.

March 11: The World Health Organization found that the virus outbreak is a pandemic.

March 18: The National Board of Health and Welfare receives a government assignment to coordinate the expansion of the intensive care capacity.

March 19: A general recommendation on unnecessary travel within Sweden was issued.

March 27: The government announced that from March 29, public gatherings and public events with more than 50 people are prohibited.

April 16: 1,333 people have died in Sweden as a result of covid-19, according to the Public Health Authority. A significant majority are over 70 years of age.

fryup

So Sweden are avoiding lockdown and Greta is Swedish??? and the environment is improving because of covid lockdown hmmmmmm

biko

This virus did more for the environment than Greta could ever have dreamed of.

Widdensushi

biko wrote: »

This virus did more for the environment than Greta could ever have dreamed of.

so greta found a virus that will help the environment but the swedes have a natural immunity to !

fryup

^^^^^^^^^^^^^

exactly !

biko

Ok, this is serious tinfoil territory here.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=urglg3WimHA

biko

https://c19.se/
12775 cases
1364 dead
death rate 10.7%

Breezin

This map shows Sweden with fewer active cases than Ireland

Edit: need to scroll down to see the interactive map. Map data is here.

ittakestwo

Augeo wrote: »

133 deaths per million, Ireland is 98 or something.
They're over 33% higher then us...... Likely to worsen too IMO given recent days tally.

To keep in perspective. Belgium has 450 deaths per million. They have now over taken Italy and Spain as highest deaths per million.

biko

Breezin wrote: »

This map shows Sweden with fewer active cases than Ireland

That's a day ago, but yes, it looks like Ireland has a tad more confirmed cases

Right now
Swedish gov (well the Health authority) https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utbrott/aktuella-utbrott/covid-19/bekraftade-fall-i-sverige/
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa
13216 cases

Irish gov https://www.gov.ie/en/news/7e0924-latest-updates-on-covid-19-coronavirus/
13271 cases

Of course Sweden is larger, tests less etc..

sydthebeat

Widdensushi wrote: »

so greta found a virus that will help the environment but the swedes have a natural immunity to !

surely you are posting this with your tongue firmly in your cheek....

sydthebeat

Breezin wrote: »

This map shows Sweden with fewer active cases than Ireland

they will always have fewer active cases when they are not testing to the same rate as us.

we are testing at nearly 2.5 times that of sweden

4068ac1elhodqr

Widdensushi wrote: »

so greta found a virus that will help the environment but the swedes have a natural immunity to !

Immune to a point (see chart), for Greta yes, perhaps there is no better tool than a pandemic to curb global pollution/population.



Yesterday MPs in Sweden have given the government extra powers to curb the rising COVID-19 death toll in the country after a sudden rise in deaths.

Sweden also has about 1/2 the populaiton density of Ireland, and are somewhat socially distant by default.

Glenomra

Sweden's policy proving to have been really clever.

sydthebeat

Glenomra wrote: »

Sweden's policy proving to have been really clever.

there is absolutely no data available to make this conclusion so far.

we cannot know if their approach is right for them until this all settles down.

their numbers today are following the trend of having high numbers midweek and lower numbers on the weekend.

IAMAMORON

Glenomra wrote: »

Sweden's policy proving to have been really clever.

That is sweeping statement if ever I read one.

Time will tell, but IMO it has been a very "risky" policy, we have no idea if it will prove reckless or not yet. But they do currently have a high death rate. They may be developing a decent herd immunity and asymptomatic hosts and it is not a disaster … yet, I would give it a week or two at least. The UK did the same for a while and look at the finger pointing going on there.