Sweden avoiding lockdown

JimmyVik

I wonder if Ireland had of locked down just one week earlier than we did, what would our deaths be like now? Would it have made a difference.

greyday

JimmyVik wrote: »

I wonder if Ireland had of locked down just one week earlier than we did, what would our deaths be like now? Would it have made a difference.

It would have made a difference to the deaths in community but not so much in Nursing homes as some of those just did not have the capability or resources to deal with a pandemic, those that did have the capability and resources did fairly well with one home in Cork recording no Covid infections, however they did go against Holohans advice and closed down completely a week before the schools, Holohan admonished that decision but we know how it has worked out now.

Ginger n Lemon

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

did you do economics in university?

You clearly didn't since you attach weight to what finance ministries say.


I studied economics in TCD under the likes of Gabriel Fagan, Philip Lane etc and I can assure you, economists *don't* attach much weight to what finance ministries say because they are overtly political. Even central bank projections are regarded with distrust since they tend to be aspirational signalling exercises.


Don't insult others for a lack of education while making it abundantly clear that yours is even worse.

Ozark707

biko wrote: »

68451 official cases
5333 officially dead
8% of known cases have passed

Numbers from FHMs own tracking page
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

Thanks for the link!

The number of deaths has really tailed off and the number of new cases is down considerably as well for the last week , is this because Sweden has gone on its summer holidays (they typically shutdown for a month after midsummer) and therefore it could be attributed to a lag in reporting or has the situation improved on this front.

Ginger n Lemon

Deleted User wrote: »

You clearly didn't since you attach weight to what finance ministries say.


I studied economics in TCD under the likes of Gabriel Fagan, Philip Lane etc and I can assure you, economists *don't* attach much weight to what finance ministries say because they are overtly political. Even central bank projections are regarded with distrust since they tend to be aspirational signalling exercises.


Don't insult others for a lack of education while making it abundantly clear that yours is even worse.

:rolleyes:

You are right, when finance ministers talk about GDP and unemployment in their own country we should not listen to them.

also - you really think that Danish, Swedish, Norwegian finance ministers are "overly political", just like Paschal? Really?

Whats abundantly clear is that there are people in this thread who believe Swedish economy will be in the bin identical to Irish economy, and that finance ministers should not be taken seriously when talking about unemployment and GDP of their own country.

And btw, I havent even started insulting anyone, I've asked a question to a poster who keeps sourcing his Irish and Swedish GDP information from RTE news and Statista.

charlie14

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Paschal said, in April, that he predicts GDP to fall by 10.5% and unemployment to peak at 22%.

In reality - we had 28% unemployment in April, 26% in May and 22.5% in June. 3 months have ended with each more than his "peak" prediction.

If you gonna keep posting IMF prediction for Ireland and disregard Paschal altogether then good luck to you.

But you need some critical thinking, look at reports coming out from ESRI as at 18th of May

"Professor McQuinn said that output will likely contract by 12% in 2020 and the tax take will be down €59.3 billion to just €51 billion."

https://www.lawsociety.ie/gazette/top-stories/2020-will-see-largest-annual-decline-in-irish-gdp--esri/

Can you really keep banging the IMF drum? did you do economics in university? I am fearful that you really do not understand the financial impact on Ireland as a result of our lockdown, and even more fearful that you are naive enough to believe that Sweden will be "just as worse off as here"... Sweden's unemployment in April was 7.9%. Ours was 28%. Thats nearly 4 times higher... do you think in May they magically jumped to our 26% level? do you think unemployment has nothing to do with GDP figures or strength of the economy?

I don`t see whether or not I studied economics in uni would be of relevance where you are concerned.
You spent days rambling on being unable to understand why Sweden`s Central bank and their National Institute of Economic Research GDP projections didn`t tally with your imaginary figure.

I have mentioned many time now to at least attempt to read and comprehend posts before foolishly rushing in to reply with the first notion that enters your head, but apparently to no avail.
You are now posting articles where you are doing the same.

ESRI predictions for Ireland 2020 is GDP to contract by 9%. Slightly less than Sweden`s Central bank prediction of 9.7% if their situation stays the same regarding Covid-19. Something that does not look likely to change anytime soon when you consider their new confirmed case numbers.


Your a bit all over the place on a few fronts. Not the least being your contradiction on your own views on year end figures.
When it comes to excess deaths in Sweden your manta is the overall figure for the year end.Yet when it comes to unemployment figures it`s all about the now.
Unemployment figures are falling as restrictions are eased. The I.M.F.are predicting the overall figure for the year at 12% falling to 7.9% beginning of next year. Sound pretty plausible to me.


I totally agree GDP decline effects unemployment levels.

So how has Sweden`s GDP contraction not being reflected in their unemployment figures ? Furlough perhaps where you are regarded statistically as being on a little holiday rather than unemployed ?

As to me being naive as regards Ireland and Sweden concerning lockdown.
I`m afraid you are beating a very dead horse on that where being naive is concerned.
Sweden not using lockdown has resulted in 7 times the deaths of their Nordic neighbours, has them still rising up the table of most deaths in Europe, their herd immunity theory "was just a dream with no basis in reality" according to Annika Linde who now also concedes that they should have used lockdown, and even the architect of their strategy, Anders Tegnel,l has admitted he would not now be as quick to dismiss it as he did initially.


But don`t let any of that effect your delusional dream that all that will just fall away and count for nothing, where in a global economy Sweden will suddently waltz out at the top of the economic world and be vindicated.

Ginger n Lemon

charlie14 wrote: »

I don`t see whether or not I studied economics in uni would be of relevance where you are concerned.
You spent days rambling on being unable to understand why Sweden`s Central bank and their National Institute of Economic Research GDP projections didn`t tally with your imaginary figure.

I have mentioned many time now to at least attempt to read and comprehend posts before foolishly rushing in to reply with the first notion that enters your head, but apparently to no avail.
You are now posting articles where you are doing the same.

ESRI predictions for Ireland 2020 is GDP to contract by 9%. Slightly less than Sweden`s Central bank prediction of 9.7% if their situation stays the same regarding Covid-19. Something that does not look likely to change anytime soon when you consider their new confirmed case numbers.


Your a bit all over the place on a few fronts. Not the least being your contradiction on your own views on year end figures.
When it comes to excess deaths in Sweden your manta is the overall figure for the year end.Yet when it comes to unemployment figures it`s all about the now.
Unemployment figures are falling as restrictions are eased. The I.M.F.are predicting the overall figure for the year at 12% falling to 7.9% beginning of next year. Sound pretty plausible to me.


I totally agree GDP decline effects unemployment levels.

So how has Sweden`s GDP contraction not being reflected in their unemployment figures ? Furlough perhaps where you are regarded statistically as being on a little holiday rather than unemployed ?

As to me being naive as regards Ireland and Sweden concerning lockdown.
I`m afraid you are beating a very dead horse on that where being naive is concerned.
Sweden not using lockdown has resulted in 7 times the deaths of their Nordic neighbours, has them still rising up the table of most deaths in Europe, their herd immunity theory "was just a dream with no basis in reality" according to Annika Linde who now also concedes that they should have used lockdown, and even the architect of their strategy, Anders Tegnel,l has admitted he would not now be as quick to dismiss it as he did initially.


But don`t let any of that effect your delusional dream that all that will just fall away and count for nothing, where in a global economy Sweden will suddently waltz out at the top of the economic world and be vindicated.

There is a lot there. Oh. Well I hope you appreciate me replying to your posts. So that in bold - is that Irish unemployment?

2nd off - not being funny, but if everyone in Sweden now thinks lockdown was a great idea and shouldve been proceeded with, why dont they lockdown right now? Reading your posts you keep saying "Swedish cases and deaths keep climbing with no sign of slowing down" ?

greyday

The swedes force sterilisation on some of their population, work from there for your answer.

biko

greyday wrote: »

The swedes force sterilisation on some of their population, work from there for your answer.

That was a pretty long time ago

Up to 63,000 people, mostly women, were sterilised under a racial purity programme approved by the state until 1976.
After years of evasion, Stockholm is finally offering the victims compensation.

As in Britain, where some of eugenics' most enthusiastic supporters were on the political left, liberals and Social Democrats backed the Swedish programme and sustained it for decades.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/1999/mar/06/stephenbates

joeysoap

5333 + 12 = 5370



The Swedes are not exactly accurate with their daily figures.

I don’t like to see any deaths, 1 is too many.


their policy was mad to begin with

bb1234567

joeysoap wrote: »

5333 + 12 = 5370



The Swedes are not exactly accurate with their daily figures.

I don’t like to see any deaths, 1 is too many.


their policy was mad to begin with

But that is just unrealistic. Imagine the world extended this much concern to other causes of death..we could probably increase global life expectancy to like 95

joeysoap

Maybe , but try saying that to New Zealand.

cnocbui

New Zealand has had 22 deaths attributed to SARS-2. They are fortunate in having arguably one of the best world leaders currently in office.

The lockdown here may lead to a greater number of cancer and other deaths due to the late diagnosis and treatment, than were 'saved', so we may well end up with a considerably worse outcome than is currently assumed.

charlie14

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

There is a lot there. Oh. Well I hope you appreciate me replying to your posts. So that in bold - is that Irish unemployment?

2nd off - not being funny, but if everyone in Sweden now thinks lockdown was a great idea and shouldve been proceeded with, why dont they lockdown right now? Reading your posts you keep saying "Swedish cases and deaths keep climbing with no sign of slowing down" ?

You can reel in the ego.

Whether you reply or not is a matter of total indifference to me.
With new cases daily often exceeding 1,000, it is now to late for Sweden to use lockdown imo.

bb1234567

What's up with swedens erratic reporting? No reports again for the last 2 days

the incredible pudding

bb1234567 wrote: »

What's up with swedens erratic reporting? No reports again for the last 2 days

They have been? There's no reports of deaths that have happened in the past couple of days (Edit - none yesterday but 2 for the day before) but retrospective reports have been added (37 added yesterday and 23 the day before that). Lots of possible reasons for that (ICU numbers are dropping off and people taking time off the two most likely but there's probably some more).

Charles Babbage

cnocbui wrote: »

New Zealand has had 22 deaths attributed to SARS-2. They are fortunate in having arguably one of the best world leaders currently in office.

The lockdown here may lead to a greater number of cancer and other deaths due to the late diagnosis and treatment, than were 'saved', so we may well end up with a considerably worse outcome than is currently assumed.

Those cancer deaths have nothing to do with the lockdown. Why do people keep saying this?
Delays in treatment come about because hospitals are extremely busy and because you have to very careful not to give Covid to ill people. The lockdown reduces the pressure on hospitals.

It is shameful the way people use cancer patients as an excuse to open pubs.

Ozark707

the incredible pudding wrote: »

but retrospective reports have been added (37 added yesterday and 23 the day before that)..

Are those cases you are referring to (i.e. not deaths)? I would hope that if they were updating retrospective cases then they would do likewise for deaths.

My fear is that due to Swedes basically starting their long summer holidays since last week they might not be updating the numbers accordingly. It would be pretty shocking if that was the case.

the incredible pudding

Ozark707 wrote: »

Are those cases you are referring to (i.e. not deaths)? I would hope that if they were updating retrospective cases then they would do likewise for deaths.

My fear is that due to Swedes basically starting their long summer holidays since last week they might not be updating the numbers accordingly. It would be pretty shocking if that was the case.

They're deaths, you can track the numbers here (https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utbrott/aktuella-utbrott/covid-19/bekraftade-fall-i-sverige/) ('Avlinda' is deaths) and the thelocal.se has a free page that gives a bit more historical context on the increases.

Active cases are increasing hugely as they rolled out free testing for anyone who's interested. The app crashed when it was launched as it was oversubscribed but my girlfriend got an appointment within a few days recently so it looks like a lot of the backlog has been cleared so those numbers are likely to stop increasing at such a high rate soon.

It's certainly possible that people taking holidays will delay reporting so as to make it somewhat harder to get a better picture of the situation but it's not like the country is going to change its tactic any time soon anyway. The numbers will come in one way or another, the accuracy of the reporting has been good even if it's been slow. I wouldn't expect that to change, especially as there's an independent review over the whole thing that's just started.

cnocbui

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Those cancer deaths have nothing to do with the lockdown. Why do people keep saying this?
Delays in treatment come about because hospitals are extremely busy and because you have to very careful not to give Covid to ill people. The lockdown reduces the pressure on hospitals.

It is shameful the way people use cancer patients as an excuse to open pubs.

Do you hold the belief that delays in cancer diagnosis don't lead to subsequent death? Do you know what metastasis is? Cancer screening was either cancelled, or people were put off by the over-emphasised lockdown message, leading to what now will be significant delays due to an already capacity deficient medical system being more overwhelmed than usual due to a massive backlog.

https://www.herald.ie/news/covid-fear-effect-as-gp-referrals-for-vital-cancer-tests-plummet-39252382.html

In the UK there are some estimates that cancer deaths could increase by 18,000 due to Covid-19 measures.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/businessinsider/status/1278655915294707712

Ozark707

the incredible pudding wrote: »

They're deaths, you can track the numbers here (https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utbrott/aktuella-utbrott/covid-19/bekraftade-fall-i-sverige/) ('Avlinda' is deaths) and the thelocal.se has a free page that gives a bit more historical context on the increases.

Active cases are increasing hugely as they rolled out free testing for anyone who's interested. The app crashed when it was launched as it was oversubscribed but my girlfriend got an appointment within a few days recently so it looks like a lot of the backlog has been cleared so those numbers are likely to stop increasing at such a high rate soon.

It's certainly possible that people taking holidays will delay reporting so as to make it somewhat harder to get a better picture of the situation but it's not like the country is going to change its tactic any time soon anyway. The numbers will come in one way or another, the accuracy of the reporting has been good even if it's been slow. I wouldn't expect that to change, especially as there's an independent review over the whole thing that's just started.

Thanks for the clarification. It appears due to them constantly revising the numbers it means that it is hard to draw conclusions when comparing this week against last week/2 weeks ago.

joeysoap

New Zealand pop 5m ; cases 1530 deaths 22
Sweden pop 10m; cases 69000+ deaths 5370


Two extremes I know

I know where I’d rather be.

charlie14

cnocbui wrote: »

Do you hold the belief that delays in cancer diagnosis don't lead to subsequent death? Do you know what metastasis is? Cancer screening was either cancelled, or people were put off by the over-emphasised lockdown message, leading to what now will be significant delays due to an already capacity deficient medical system being more overwhelmed than usual due to a massive backlog.

https://www.herald.ie/news/covid-fear-effect-as-gp-referrals-for-vital-cancer-tests-plummet-39252382.html

In the UK there are some estimates that cancer deaths could increase by 18,000 due to Covid-19 measures.

I don`t know if it is that much different in Sweden.
FAIK they have only been carrying out emergency trauma and cancer surgery. Pregnancy screening was cancelled so I doubt they were doing much cancer screening either.
Having patients with suppressed immunity mixing with those who have Covid-19 would not be a great idea.

the incredible pudding

charlie14 wrote: »

I don`t know if it is that much different in Sweden.
FAIK they have only been carrying out emergency trauma and cancer surgery. Pregnancy screening was cancelled so I doubt they were doing much cancer screening either.
Having patients with suppressed immunity mixing with those who have Covid-19 would not be a great idea.

It was resumed back in May

VillageIdiot71

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Delays in treatment come about because hospitals are extremely busy and because you have to very careful not to give Covid to ill people.

Are hospitals extremely busy?

charlie14

the incredible pudding wrote: »

It was resumed back in May

Thanks for that.
I don`t know what criteria they used for suspending screening, but the deaths and new cases in May still looked very high to start up again.
Was it worries on suppressed immunity patients that resulted in them initially suspending screening do you know ?

Charles Babbage

VillageIdiot71 wrote: »

Are hospitals extremely busy?

Hospitals have been busy and some capacity needed to be retained in case the Covid numbers would increase.


But it isn't just a matter of the numbers, cancer patients getting Covid could kill them and organising hospitals for effective infection control is no easy task.

the incredible pudding

charlie14 wrote: »

Thanks for that.
I don`t know what criteria they used for suspending screening, but the deaths and new cases in May still looked very high to start up again.
Was it worries on suppressed immunity patients that resulted in them initially suspending screening do you know ?

I don't think there was ever a full suspension, but rather a reduction and temporary delay in areas that were badly effected while things got especially bad. I think some health workers were redirected during April too which probably played a part. The ICU numbers were peaking around that time so I assume as they started to drop and it was realised that the health system could cope with the excess work that programs started up again under some pressure from specialists but that's somewhat speculative on my part. I'm not a native speaker so reliant on others and well... google translate for most my information.

joeysoap

Am I missing something

5733 ( last night figure) + 12 = 5411 ( today’s figure)

I’m starting to think they’re making up figures

That’s 78

A shocking figure