Sweden avoiding lockdown

mcsean2163

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Those cancer deaths have nothing to do with the lockdown. Why do people keep saying this?
Delays in treatment come about because hospitals are extremely busy and because you have to very careful not to give Covid to ill people. The lockdown reduces the pressure on hospitals.

It is shameful the way people use cancer patients as an excuse to open pubs.

What? You do realise surgeons were not very busy during peak covid19 in Ireland? I heard some great stories of them pitching in around the hospital but no, they were not very busy by what I heard. I can't imagine it was that different in Sweden?

the incredible pudding

joeysoap wrote: »

Am I missing something

5733 ( last night figure) + 12 = 5411 ( today’s figure)

I’m starting to think they’re making up figures

That’s 78

A shocking figure

You're missing a day - 5,370 was the previous figure

biko

On a general scale for deaths per 100k Sweden isn't doing too bad. Still much much worse than their neighbours of course.

Country Deaths per 100k
Belgium 853.35
UK 657.7
Spain 606.86
Italy 575.31
Sweden 523.71
France 444.52
USA 388.93
Ireland 357.68

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

charlie14

joeysoap wrote: »

Am I missing something

5733 ( last night figure) + 12 = 5411 ( today’s figure)

I’m starting to think they’re making up figures

That’s 78

A shocking figure

As the incredible pudding said there are two days missing from Worldometers daily figures.


They give deaths for those two days on their graph but they do not account for the total so those deaths look to have been from earlier.
With holidays there does seem to be a lag of around a week in reporting in some cases.
It may be more accurate as to what the situation is to take the previous weeks figure to allow for the backlog. The daily average for the previous week was 23 deaths.

VillageIdiot71

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Hospitals have been busy

Can you substantiate that, as there have been many reports stating that hospitals have not been busy - including comments by the CMO himself.

Breezin

biko wrote: »

On a general scale for deaths per 100k Sweden isn't doing too bad. Still much much worse than their neighbours of course.

Country Deaths per 100k
Belgium 853.35
UK 657.7
Spain 606.86
Italy 575.31
Sweden 523.71
France 444.52
USA 388.93
Ireland 357.68https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

Good to have context like that when some are eager to have Sweden as pariahs.

Incidentally, a bit off-topic, but since you mention it, it's interesting to note the comparison between the US and Ireland. Very similar outcomes, with very different policy approaches, whereas their political leaders are vilified and ours are lionised.

So, which part of this picture is wrong? I would not be taking defending Trump as my starting point.

Bridge93

Reports today suggest Ireland could be over reporting by as much as nearly 30%. The United States haven’t included numbers beyond those confirmed dead in a hospital environment for the most part, they’re massively understating. The numbers aren’t remotely comparable

greyday

If we accept todays news of over reporting Covid deaths in Ireland, it looks like Sweden has over twice as many deaths as Ireland, no doubt the Swedish fanboys will spin that as a good thing.

biko

71419 official cases
5420 officially dead
7.6% of known cases have passed

Numbers from FHMs own tracking page
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

hmmm

Bridge93 wrote: »

Reports today suggest Ireland could be over reporting by as much as nearly 30%. The United States haven’t included numbers beyond those confirmed dead in a hospital environment for the most part, they’re massively understating. The numbers aren’t remotely comparable

The stats are pretty useless at the moment, every country is reporting Covid deaths differently - it'll probably take a few years to get a clear picture.

E.g. Belgium are top of the charts for deaths, but they are recording large numbers of "suspected" deaths even where the person tested negative - in reality they are over-counting, and are doing much better than the stats would suggest. I suspect also from news reports that places like Sweden and certain US states are undercounting deaths.

VillageIdiot71

Bridge93 wrote: »

Reports today suggest Ireland could be over reporting by as much as nearly 30%. The United States haven’t included numbers beyond those confirmed dead in a hospital environment for the most part, they’re massively understating. The numbers aren’t remotely comparable

Interesting. I expect there's a strong political interest in getting the Irish figures down. Otherwise, it looks like we banjaxed the economy for very little gain.

And, of course, no country is anywhere close to the scaremongering fake news "up to 85,000 deaths in Ireland" claimed originally by Leo. If that was true, Sweden should be well on the way to 170,000 deaths.

Its like that quote from the Vietnam War "we had to destroy the village in order to save it". We've destroyed our country. For what?

AlmightyCushion

VillageIdiot71 wrote: »

Interesting. I expect there's a strong political interest in getting the Irish figures down. Otherwise, it looks like we banjaxed the economy for very little gain.

And, of course, no country is anywhere close to the scaremongering fake news "up to 85,000 deaths in Ireland" claimed originally by Leo. If that was true, Sweden should be well on the way to 170,000 deaths.

Its like that quote from the Vietnam War "we had to destroy the village in order to save it". We've destroyed our country. For what?

The 85,000 deaths was based on us doing absolutely nothing and carrying on as normal. Whilst Sweden didn't lock down as much as us, they certainly didn't carry on as normal.

VillageIdiot71

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

The 85,000 deaths was based on us doing absolutely nothing and carrying on as normal. Whilst Sweden didn't lock down as much as us, they certainly didn't carry on as normal.

Yeah, and didn't get anything like 170,000 deaths is the point - which, again, there's now a political imperative to justify.

So we have to pretend that Sweden possibly having a couple of thousand more deaths is the Big Deal we were trying to avoid.

Whereas, quite conceivably, it will be balanced by increased mortality from other ailments and many hundreds of thousands of lives damaged for many years to come.

Bit cynical

hmmm wrote: »

E.g. Belgium are top of the charts for deaths, but they are recording large numbers of "suspected" deaths even where the person tested negative - in reality they are over-counting, and are doing much better than the stats would suggest.

However Belgium are still very high on the excess mortality table from the research reported on RTE.

https://www.hiqa.ie/sites/default/files/2020-07/Analysis-of-excess-all-cause-mortality-in-Ireland-during-the-COVID-19-epidemic.pdf (Page 19).

Of the regions mentioned, only Spain and England are higher.

Bit cynical

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

The 85,000 deaths was based on us doing absolutely nothing and carrying on as normal. Whilst Sweden didn't lock down as much as us, they certainly didn't carry on as normal.

However similar quite dire predictions far in excess of what actually happened were made for Sweden if they carried on with their present course of minimal restrictions and voluntary measures. The predictions were based on the Imperial College model with parameters adjusted to Sweden (e.g. small household size, urban density etc.)

charlie14

VillageIdiot71 wrote: »

Yeah, and didn't get anything like 170,000 deaths is the point - which, again, there's now a political imperative to justify.

So we have to pretend that Sweden possibly having a couple of thousand more deaths is the Big Deal we were trying to avoid.

Whereas, quite conceivably, it will be balanced by increased mortality from other ailments and many hundreds of thousands of lives damaged for many years to come.

You appear not to think so, but for myself I would look at a couple of thousand deaths as a "Big Deal".

The narrative from the let the virus run free advocates now appears to be speculation as to how many may die at some unknown date in the future where these deaths can be blamed on lockdown.
Yet strangely no speculation of how many lives were saved by using lockdown.


In the case of Sweden compared to its three Nordic neighbours Sweden`s deaths to date are 5411.
It`s three neighbours deaths to date are 1,186.
Taking into account their populations, on a like for like basis, that would equate to 710 deaths for their three Nordic neighbours.
So on a like for like basis lockdown 710 deaths, no lockdown 5,411 deaths.

VillageIdiot71

charlie14 wrote: »

You appear not to think so, but for myself I would look at a couple of thousand deaths as a "Big Deal".

So do I, which is why I'm not one of the people trying to discount the significant immediate and long term damage to lives caused by the lockdown.

Can we at least agree "Up to 85,000" was fake news?

is_that_so

VillageIdiot71 wrote: »

So do I, which is why I'm not one of the people trying to discount the significant immediate and long term damage to lives caused by the lockdown.

Can we at least agree "Up to 85,000" was fake news?

That's too simplistic. It was a set of predictions based on an unmitigated 33% increase, a level that was prevalent at the beginning of this, but which fell away quite quickly. As a result that value was never going to be be reached but for a brief moment in time the possibility existed.

Breezin

Bridge93 wrote: »

Reports today suggest Ireland could be over reporting by as much as nearly 30%. The United States haven’t included numbers beyond those confirmed dead in a hospital environment for the most part, they’re massively understating. The numbers aren’t remotely comparable

So the data is entirely unreliable, and much of the comparative discussion is meaningless. We know nothing. So Trump and co may not be complete a-holes (controversial! -- we all know that they are anyway), but also our lot may not be complete heroes, in spite of the cult of personality mysteriously constructed around them.

Which also, of course, calls into question the ever more zealous certitude with which Sweden's approach is pilloried by lockdown hardliners.

VillageIdiot71

is_that_so wrote: »

That's too simplistic. It was a set of predictions based on an unmitigated 33% increase, a level that was prevalent at the beginning of this, but which fell away quite quickly. As a result that value was never going to be be reached but for a brief moment in time the possibility existed.

I expect you know that the important part of that, for me and for many, is "that value was never going to be reached".

We have poll-axed our societies. Truly, we've destroyed the World while pretending to save it.

is_that_so

Breezin wrote: »

So the data is entirely unreliable, and much of the comparative discussion is meaningless. We know nothing. So Trump and co may not be complete a-holes (controversial! -- we all know that they are anyway), but also our lot may not be complete heroes, in spite of the cult of personality mysteriously constructed around them.

Which also, of course, calls into question the ever more zealous certitude with which Sweden's approach is pilloried by lockdown hardliners.

That's not what HIQA said.

https://www.rte.ie/news/health/2020/0703/1151127-virus-report/

Harry Palmr

Maybe it's now a case of the people who are likely to die being the ones who are avoiding contact to the greatest degree and the majority of new cases are of younger healthy people who are most likely to live.

If so the Swedes have got a new normal of a very stratified society.

is_that_so

VillageIdiot71 wrote: »

I expect you know that the important part of that, for me and for many, is "that value was never going to be reached".

We have poll-axed our societies. Truly, we've destroyed the World while pretending to save it.

Not sure where this is coming from. Are you a proponent of herd immunity and just letting the virus rip through of its own accord? Societies are built of sterner stuff than a pandemic that stops the world for 6 months. We'll recover and deal with it better into the future.

charlie14

VillageIdiot71 wrote: »

So do I, which is why I'm not one of the people trying to discount the significant immediate and long term damage to lives caused by the lockdown.

Can we at least agree "Up to 85,000" was fake news?

Maybe not, but you do appear to be someone trying to discount that the lockdown saved lives in the present.


Was 85,000 fake news ?
I would see fake news being lies dressed up to appear truths, so no I don`t think it was fake news based on what was happening in the likes of Italy at the time and the little knowledge then available on the virus.

It was the same as Sweden`s predictions on immunity.
A mathematical model based on little knowledge at the time.


I really do not know what the significance the "Up to 85,000" is to you.

If it had been 80% lower at 17,000, do you believe we should not have had lockdown ?

charlie14

Breezin wrote: »

So the data is entirely unreliable, and much of the comparative discussion is meaningless. We know nothing. So Trump and co may not be complete a-holes (controversial! -- we all know that they are anyway), but also our lot may not be complete heroes, in spite of the cult of personality mysteriously constructed around them.

Which also, of course, calls into question the ever more zealous certitude with which Sweden's approach is pilloried by lockdown hardliners.

If you read what HIQA said it is more likely that their report is entirely unreliable.
It is more speculative than scientific.

Sounds more like them taking a cut at the HSE for laying some blame at their door for nursing home deaths.
HIQA didn`t even do any research themselves.

Research by two universities using the same source as HIQA, RIP.ie found that for April at the height of our outbreak that for three counties deaths for April had doubled, and many others had deaths 50% and more higher.


It is as easy to speculate that the numbers of deaths from Covid-19 do not tally with excess death because lockdown saved deaths from other causes.

cnocbui

charlie14 wrote: »

If you read what HIQA said it is more likely that their report is entirely unreliable.
It is more speculative than scientific.

Sounds more like them taking a cut at the HSE for laying some blame at their door for nursing home deaths.
HIQA didn`t even do any research themselves.

Research by two universities using the same source as HIQA, RIP.ie found that for April at the height of our outbreak that for three counties deaths for April had doubled, and many others had deaths 50% and more higher.


It is as easy to speculate that the numbers of deaths from Covid-19 do not tally with excess death because lockdown saved deaths from other causes.

And just as easy to speculate lockdown caused a number of deaths, given some specialists pleading with the public to not ignore symptoms of stroke and heart attack, which likely was prompted by fewer such admissions presenting than normal.

charlie14

cnocbui wrote: »

And just as easy to speculate lockdown caused a number of deaths, given some specialists pleading with the public to not ignore symptoms of stroke and heart attack, which likely was prompted by fewer such admissions presenting than normal.

I would not see that anyone seeing somebody suffered a severe stroke or a heart attack would act any differently, pandemic or no pandemic and not call emergency services.

Stress is a major contributor to both, Often work related. So who knows, perhaps less incidents of both were just down due to lockdown.

Arghus

cnocbui wrote: »

And just as easy to speculate lockdown caused a number of deaths, given some specialists pleading with the public to not ignore symptoms of stroke and heart attack, which likely was prompted by fewer such admissions presenting than normal.

But they were told to not ignore symptoms of stroke and heart attack and to contact GPs or seek treatment, all the time, everyday. It was made abundantly clear. Nobody said these people should avoid hospitals if they needed treatment. You can't blame them if people chose not to heed their advice.

cnocbui

Arghus wrote: »

But they were told to not ignore symptoms of stroke and heart attack and to contact GPs or seek treatment, all the time, everyday. It was made abundantly clear. Nobody said these people should avoid hospitals if they needed treatment. You can't blame them if people chose not to heed their advice.

How were they told?

HUNDREDS of strokes and heart attacks have gone untreated and thousands of cancer cases undiagnosed since the Covid-19 lockdown started, an Irish Sun investigation has revealed.

Amid global warnings that thousands of patients could die of other illnesses during lockdown, experts are urging people to get themselves checked.

The Irish Heart Foundation believes up to half of heart attack and stroke victims in Ireland could be avoiding seeking treatment.

It means that in the five weeks alone, approximately 350 strokes and 280 heart attacks have gone untreated.
...
The HSE’s Chief Medical Officer, Dr Tony Holohan, has spoken of his fears over secondary deaths after a non-virus related health scare saw him seek medical attention at Dublin’s St James’s Hospital.

The top doc was surprised to see the hospital so empty.

And he warned the public not to avoid going to hospital for conditions that are not Covid-19 related, as officials worry about an increase in “secondary deaths” in the coming months.

He said: “Many people are staying away from hospitals that should not stay away.

“I didn’t ignore symptoms I had and I’m advising the public to not ignore their symptoms.

In February, before the Covid-19 outbreak in Ireland, 21,713 on average attended hospitals across the country every week.

Since the boom in infection cases began in early March, this has plummeted to just 11,756 people last week.
...
A UK doctor warned that 50,000 cancer patients could die prematurely if lockdown lasts six months.

Oncologist Prof Karol Sikora fears thousands of people are today unknowingly living with symptoms of a disease that are going undiagnosed because of the pandemic - that will eventually kill them.

Prof Sikora, chief medical officer at Rutherford Health and former head of the World Health Organisation’s cancer programme, admitted: “If this continues for six months, I suspect that in the years to come there will be at least 50,000 excess cancer deaths. That is a terrifying number.

https://www.thesun.ie/news/5360394/coronavirus-in-ireland-stokes-heart-attacks-cancer-untreated-fears/

Arghus

cnocbui wrote: »

How were they told?

https://www.thesun.ie/news/5360394/coronavirus-in-ireland-stokes-heart-attacks-cancer-untreated-fears/

It was stated again and again in the media, by the HSE, the DoH, the CMO, every doctor or specialist I heard mentioned it. Frequently repeated in the press briefings. Even the link you provided proves what I'm saying - it has the CMO saying it again.

The message was loud and clear. If you are trying to argue different you are mistaken.