Sweden avoiding lockdown

99nsr125

greyday wrote: »

If time can be stretched out to decades as with other viruses?

And your example is ?

99nsr125

charlie14 wrote: »

Sweden had the idea that letting the virus spread would result in herd immunity. Their antibody tests have shown a national antibody level of 6.1%.
As Annika Linde the former Sweden state epidemiologist who initially supported the idea put it as regards herd immunity, "a dream with little basis in reality"
Even for the small percentage that have tested positive for antibodies, nobody knows what level of immunity they will provide or how long it will be effective.

The less people who get infected, the less die. It`s as simple as that, and that is what restrictions like lockdown do.
It is what resulted in less deaths in St Louis in 1918, in Sweden`s Nordic neighbours this year, and what Linde now says should have been done in Sweden.

You're answering a point I didn't make . . . .

Restrictions will slow spread but that's treatment of a symptom not the ailment and that's the crux that is lost in the narrative

greyday

99nsr125 wrote: »

And your example is ?

HIV and Hepatitis

Seamai

biko wrote: »

Finnish Public Service about the Swedish strategy:


https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-11433976

That's a pretty shocking article, makes the elderly sound like an inconvenience to be despatched with as quickly as possible.

AdamD

deconduo wrote: »

https://theweek.com/speedreads/924238/sweden-literally-gained-nothing-from-staying-open-during-covid19-including-no-economic-gains

Article suggests there's been no economic benefit from Sweden's strategy.

With 0 stats or support

Goldengirl

Seamai wrote: »

That's a pretty shocking article, makes the elderly sound like an inconvenience to be despatched with as quickly as possible.

Could be , but no translate service on that link, on my side anyhow , so all Finnish to me !

tobefrank321

is_that_so wrote: »

Colm Henry has more than once pointed out they make calls on a case by case basis as to where the best place for such patients is. Hospital and ICU may not be that place.

And the same happens in Sweden, the UK and pretty much everywhere else. If its done in Ireland, its called humanitarian, but if its done in Sweden its called euthanasia. Truth is the same approach is taken in both countries, those too frail for ICU are given end of life care, a pretty normal practice in western medicine.

cnocbui

Goldengirl wrote: »

Could be , but no translate service on that link, on my side anyhow , so all Finnish to me !

Bing translate is pretty good:
https://www.translatetheweb.com/?ref=TVert&from=&to=en&a=https%3A%2F%2Fyle.fi%2Fuutiset%2F3-11433976

RebelButtMunch

Are sweden not reporting numbers any more?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

Jun 29th last date there.

Boggles

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

Are sweden not reporting numbers any more?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

Jun 29th last date there.

No, it's up to date for me.

302 cases yesterday, 12 Deaths.

PokeHerKing

Boggles wrote: »

No, it's up to date for me.

302 cases yesterday, 12 Deaths.

Their reporting does appear to be a bit patchy at times though, if worldometers is to be trusted.

biko

Goldengirl wrote: »

Could be , but no translate service on that link, on my side anyhow , so all Finnish to me !

There are translator services free on the internet. Use the one you like or just translate.google.com

greyday

The recent reported figures from Sweden will be multiples in a few weeks when they clear the backlog of unreported deaths.

The NY Times seems to think they could have done better by following their neighbours.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-coronavirus.html?referringSource=articleShare

charlie14

99nsr125 wrote: »

You're answering a point I didn't make . . . .

Restrictions will slow spread but that's treatment of a symptom not the ailment and that's the crux that is lost in the narrative

Your point was that our own antibodies would return us to health.


Sweden went with that train of thought in their strategy.

Based on modelling figures they assumed that those infected would develop antibodies in high enough numbers that should there be a recurrence those numbers would provide herd immunity.

Sweden`s own tests have shown that not to be the case with just 6.1% nationally having developed antibodies where the absolute minimum for herd immunity is 60%. Tests by others such as Spain and France have shown the same national levels.

Even with the small percentages that have tested positive for antibodies, it is unknown how effective their antibodies would be in the event of another wave. Or even how long that effectiveness will last for.

cnocbui

greyday wrote: »

The recent reported figures from Sweden will be multiples in a few weeks when they clear the backlog of unreported deaths.

The NY Times seems to think they could have done better by following their neighbours.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-coronavirus.html?referringSource=articleShare

A US newspaper saying Sweden could have done better. Irony of epic proportions.

greyday

cnocbui wrote: »

A US newspaper saying Sweden could have done better. Irony of epic proportions.

The yanks know they fecked up but still have 40% less than Sweden over respective populations.

cnocbui

greyday wrote: »

The yanks know they fecked up but still have 40% less than Sweden over respective populations.

It's 33% less and very likely won't be anything like as much when the deaths from the current surges in the southern states and Nevada happen.

bb1234567

Wow at USA criticising Sweden. Sweden may have a high proportion of deaths currently but their death rate is down to a trickle now while USA is approaching an enormous second peak currently, they will very likely overtake Sweden is deaths per capita in the near future.

greyday

bb1234567 wrote: »

Wow at USA criticising Sweden. Sweden may have a high proportion of deaths currently but their death rate is down to a trickle now while USA is approaching an enormous second peak currently, they will very likely overtake Sweden is deaths per capita in the near future.

The Swedish reporting is completely wrong due to their summer shut down, you can be guaranteed it will be much higher than at present when they finally get around to publishing their most recent deaths.

Boggles

bb1234567 wrote: »

Wow at USA criticising Sweden. Sweden may have a high proportion of deaths currently but their death rate is down to a trickle now while USA is approaching an enormous second peak currently, they will very likely overtake Sweden is deaths per capita in the near future.

The USA is not criticizing Sweden.

The journalist is the European economic correspondent, he is pointing out the fact that Sweden's economy nose dived anyway so not locking down just caused 1000s of needless deaths.

Maybe, you know actually read the actual article.

cnocbui

greyday wrote: »

The Swedish reporting is completely wrong due to their summer shut down, you can be guaranteed it will be much higher than at present when they finally get around to publishing their most recent deaths.

Oh, and you think the figures out of the US are ridgy didge?

Back in April, it became clear that Florida was intentionally hiding a list of daily deaths that had previously been compiled by county medical examiners. Since that time, those examiners, as well as hospitals and local officials, have complained that the number of COVID-19 deaths being reported in Governor Ron DeSantis regular updates, doesn’t match what they’re seeing in their areas. Last week, the scientist behind Florida’s COVID-19 dashboard was fired after she says she refused to alter numbers as she was told.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/5/28/1948035/-More-evidence-emerges-that-DeSantis-has-been-deliberately-under-reporting-COVID-19-deaths-in-Florida

cnocbui

Boggles wrote: »

The USA is not criticizing Sweden.

The journalist is the European economic correspondent, he is pointing out the fact that Sweden's economy nose dived anyway so not locking down just caused 1000s of needless deaths.

Maybe, you know actually read the actual article.

That journalist is spinning the negatives.

The Swedish economy expanded at a far superior rate than many of its European counterparts over the first three months of the year, data published Friday showed, following the government’s decision not to impose a full lockdown to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

The Nordic country’s statistics office reported gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of economic health, grew at an annual rate of 0.4% in the first quarter.

Sweden’s GDP increased by 0.1% in the first quarter, when seasonally adjusted and compared to the final three months of 2019. The median forecasters in a Reuters poll of economists had expected to see a 0.6% contraction on a quarterly basis.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/29/coronavirus-swedens-gdp-actually-grew-in-the-first-quarter.html

Boggles

How is the economy performance for the first 3 months of the year valid?

Anyway he is a more up to date article, not one from May focusing on the first quarter of the year.

Sweden didn’t impose a lockdown, but its economy is just as bad as its neighbors

the incredible pudding

greyday wrote: »

The Swedish reporting is completely wrong due to their summer shut down, you can be guaranteed it will be much higher than at present when they finally get around to publishing their most recent deaths.

Whilst the numbers will probably be a bit higher (in terms of say number of deaths reported for this actual week), I don't expect them to be too much higher (in comparison to how say the week three weeks past were also increased retrospectively).

ICU numbers have been steadily dropping since their peak, down to 20% of what that was and the mortality rate of those being admitted has dropped severely (from 34% to 4%). The country has been on a downward slope for a couple of months now, it's been far, far slower than the rest of Europe but it is happening.

Edit - also don't get me wrong, they're far from anywhere near out of the woods yet, there's still big issues with elderly care.

Why are you bothering Boggles? You're arguing with someone who thinks that where a newspaper is located automatically invalidates anything it's worldwide journalists might write. Is there any point in even trying to converse with someone like that?


The economic trajectory of Sweden is clear. The coronavirus trajectory of Sweden is clear. Still there's a few holdouts who keep posting the most ludicrous 'arguments' and running away every time someone replies with actual evidence.

AdamD

Deleted User wrote: »

Why are you bothering Boggles? You're arguing with someone who thinks that where a newspaper is located automatically invalidates anything it's worldwide journalists might write. Is there any point in even trying to converse with someone like that?


The economic trajectory of Sweden is clear. The coronavirus trajectory of Sweden is clear. Still there's a few holdouts who keep posting the most ludicrous 'arguments' and running away every time someone replies with actual evidence.

I've no idea whether the Swedish economy was hit just as bad or not, but neither of those articles prove a thing. The first has 0 statistics and the second is basing its argument around the drop in consumer confidence figures.

is_that_so

AdamD wrote: »

I've no idea whether the Swedish economy was hit just as bad or not, but neither of those articles prove a thing. The first has 0 statistics and the second is basing its argument around the drop in consumer confidence figures.

Projections are for about the same economic fall as the rest of us and unemployment up to about 10%.

Bit cynical

bb1234567 wrote: »

Wow at USA criticising Sweden. Sweden may have a high proportion of deaths currently but their death rate is down to a trickle now while USA is approaching an enormous second peak currently, they will very likely overtake Sweden is deaths per capita in the near future.

Yes, Sweden's daily rate of deaths per capita is currently lower than the US and falling whereas the US's is steady and possibly rising. My guess is that the US will overtake Sweden in cumulative deaths per capita in a few weeks.

Bit cynical

is_that_so wrote: »

Projections are for about the same economic fall as the rest of us and unemployment up to about 10%.

Some countries however are likely to fare quite badly economically. France, for example, are forecast to shrink in GDP by about 12% (IMF), 10% (Banque de France). Spain's GDP is set to shrink by 13% (IMF). Even Germany's GDP will shrink by 8% (IMF) and they had a fairly mild coronavirus outbreak.

In contrast, Sweden's central bank has revised their forecast from about -9% (is that right Charlie14?) to the latest of -4.1% as more information comes in about the actual impact. The IMF still has them at -6.8% however.

The general trend in the forecasts seems to be that Sweden's gets more benign and other countries more severe as the information comes in.

99nsr125

greyday wrote: »

HIV and Hepatitis

How about a comparable virus spread in the same way not just other viruses.

Rabies is present in saliva in sufficient concentration to transmit via inhalation of droplets and contact with your eyes. Hence the entire don't touch your face and wash your hands guidelines. We live with it but don't lockdown the half of the world that has it in circulation.