Sweden avoiding lockdown

99nsr125

charlie14 wrote: »

Your point was that our own antibodies would return us to health.


Sweden went with that train of thought in their strategy.

Based on modelling figures they assumed that those infected would develop antibodies in high enough numbers that should there be a recurrence those numbers would provide herd immunity.

Sweden`s own tests have shown that not to be the case with just 6.1% nationally having developed antibodies where the absolute minimum for herd immunity is 60%. Tests by others such as Spain and France have shown the same national levels.

Even with the small percentages that have tested positive for antibodies, it is unknown how effective their antibodies would be in the event of another wave. Or even how long that effectiveness will last for.

And your antibodies will return you to health this is undeniable.

Your other choice is to runaway and that destroys everything, advocating for that kills everyone and everything. Life in a bunker is no more than waiting to die and forcing other people to do the same is bestowing a death sentence on everyone else.

greyday

99nsr125 wrote: »

How about a comparable virus spread in the same way not just other viruses.

Rabies is present in saliva in sufficient concentration to transmit via inhalation of droplets and contact with your eyes. Hence the entire don't touch your face and wash your hands guidelines. We live with it but don't lockdown the half of the world that has it in circulation.

The point is that medications become available to treat the symptoms of the virus in the absence of a vaccine, if the treatment options can extend lives for decades then its as good as a functional cure much like HIV antivirals at present.
The lockdowns were necessary in order to push down the infection rate and to alter peoples behaviours which for the most part has worked well for Countries that chose this route, we are in a better position now to stay open while dealing with any outbreaks in the future which is a long way from where we were in March.

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

Some countries however are likely to fare quite badly economically. France, for example, are forecast to shrink in GDP by about 12% (IMF), 10% (Banque de France). Spain's GDP is set to shrink by 13% (IMF). Even Germany's GDP will shrink by 8% (IMF) and they had a fairly mild coronavirus outbreak.

In contrast, Sweden's central bank has revised their forecast from about -9% (is that right Charlie14?) to the latest of -4.1% as more information comes in about the actual impact. The IMF still has them at -6.8% however.

The general trend in the forecasts seems to be that Sweden's gets more benign and other countries more severe as the information comes in.

Not exactly. That -4.1% is based on "infection decreasing more rapidly and staying at a low level" which is far from certain. Otherwise they are predicting -5.7%.

Trading Economics have them at -7.2% Q3 and -5.8% Q4.


A recent research report by the Riksbank made the observation that with their economy so reliant on exports, historically a downturn in the economies of their major export markets of Germany, the rest of the EU and USA has a major knock on effect. Something they see as being no different presently.
AFAIK, even though Sweden are not members of the Eurozone, they didn`t escape the effects of the relatively recent crisis either, so I can see the sense in that.

Incidentally Denmark, their neighbour who had lockdown, Trading Economics have at Q3 -5.5%. and Q4 -3.7%. IMF -6.5% and the European Commission -5.2% for the year.

charlie14

99nsr125 wrote: »

And your antibodies will return you to health this is undeniable.

Your other choice is to runaway and that destroys everything, advocating for that kills everyone and everything. Life in a bunker is no more than waiting to die and forcing other people to do the same is bestowing a death sentence on everyone else.

Have you even read what I posted ?
Only a tiny percentage have developed antibodies.
Sweden put their faith in antibodies and are now edging ever closer to Italy as the 4th most deaths per capita of 51 European countries.
Nobody is asking you to live in a bunker. Just to follow a few simple guidelines and have a bit of respect for your fellow human beings.

charlie14

99nsr125 wrote: »

How about a comparable virus spread in the same way not just other viruses.

Rabies is present in saliva in sufficient concentration to transmit via inhalation of droplets and contact with your eyes. Hence the entire don't touch your face and wash your hands guidelines. We live with it but don't lockdown the half of the world that has it in circulation.

Unlike Covid-19, there is a rabies vaccine that is 100% effective if given early and can still be effective up to 10 days after infection.

biko

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/bugg-i-systemet-har-gett-felaktig-coronastatistik

Bug in the system gave incorrect statistics
On Thursday, SVT News published a news that mortality within 30 days for covid patients at IVA has decreased - from 34 percent in March to four percent in May.

After the publication, the Swedish Intensive Care Register, where the statistics were retrieved, discovered a bug in the system that made the mortality statistics inaccurate for May in particular. Instead of four percent, mortality was 19 percent within 30 days of enrollment

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

Have you even read what I posted ?
Only a tiny percentage have developed antibodies.
Sweden put their faith in antibodies and are now edging ever closer to Italy as the 4th most deaths per capita of 51 European countries.
Nobody is asking you to live in a bunker. Just to follow a few simple guidelines and have a bit of respect for your fellow human beings.

I'm not sure there's been a recent widespread antibodies test in Sweden, ie mid June onwards. Stockholm would have the highest rate of infections so its pointless doing it for the entire country. I think there is one other area that has seen a significant spike lately.

The latest tests in NYC show in some areas antibodies close to 70% of the population, enough to confer herd immunity in that community. These would be the less well off essential workers who work in transport and so on. The more affluent are still susceptible as they have lower infection rates.

Herd immunity gives you mixed results, a lot of deaths in the short and medium term but it means you are reasonably protected for a second wave.

There is no evidence Sweden have achieved it or that is even their strategy anymore. Their strategy appears to be to encourage people to voluntarily do their own thing, giving people the option to cocoon or else go about their daily business.

Its not as if our own lockdown has been collateral free by the way - schools and universities closed or online only, Leaving Cert farce, creches closing daily, hotels at 25% capacity, B&Bs in trouble. Normal life has continued on better in Sweden than most countries and this has been their strategy.

biko

https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/coronaviruset/svag-svenska-kan-ha-paverkat-covidvard/

Seems it comes to light that having people that badly speak the language of the natives can jeopardise the elderly they are supposed to care for.

Not at all surprising and I doubt anything will come of it

Lack of language skills in elderly care staff may have contributed to problems during the corona pandemic.

The question of language competence is important for Lina Nordquist, a healthcare policy spokesperson and MP for the Liberals. She is certain that language bias has been a concern during the corona spring.

- It would be strange if there is no longer a problem during the pandemic. It has been a problem for many years before, she says.

- A lot of it is about understanding the hygiene routines and then the language is very important.

She wants to see tougher language skills requirements. Today, the National Board of Health and Welfare has a recommendation that the elderly care staff should have "the ability to understand, speak, read and write Swedish".

- The National Board of Health and Welfare needs to tighten its requirements when it comes to languages. To change from recommendations to requirements, she says.

https://ka.se/2018/06/12/stora-sprakproblem-i-aldreomsorgen/

The staff shortage in elderly care means that employers employ people who cannot speak Swedish well enough, according to KA's review.
- There are no restrictions whatsoever on how little Swedish you speak, says Elisabeth Antfolk

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I'm not sure there's been a recent widespread antibodies test in Sweden, ie mid June onwards. Stockholm would have the highest rate of infections so its pointless doing it for the entire country. I think there is one other area that has seen a significant spike lately.

The latest tests in NYC show in some areas antibodies close to 70% of the population, enough to confer herd immunity in that community. These would be the less well off essential workers who work in transport and so on. The more affluent are still susceptible as they have lower infection rates.

Herd immunity gives you mixed results, a lot of deaths in the short and medium term but it means you are reasonably protected for a second wave.

There is no evidence Sweden have achieved it or that is even their strategy anymore. Their strategy appears to be to encourage people to voluntarily do their own thing, giving people the option to cocoon or else go about their daily business.

Its not as if our own lockdown has been collateral free by the way - schools and universities closed or online only, Leaving Cert farce, creches closing daily, hotels at 25% capacity, B&Bs in trouble. Normal life has continued on better in Sweden than most countries and this has been their strategy.

50,000 antibody tests carried out by Werlabs AB over a 6 week period up to 17th June showed just 14% for Stockholm and 6.1% nationally.
Bergamo the epicenter of Italy`s infections showed 57%.
Sweden claim their R number is below 1, so there is no way even Stockholm can reach herd immunity let alone the rest of Sweden.

It has been an experiment with peoples lives that has caused unnecessary deaths. The comment of the Director General of their Public Health Authority Jahan Carlson, from a recent Biko post, of it being a "coincidence" was nothing short of shameful.

If there is a second wave not only do we not know how effective those antibodies will be or for long, the percentages are so low as to be negligible anyway in halting the spread.

Sweden may have kept shops, bars, restaurants, barbers, hairdressers, etc open but it is very questionable as too just how much business they did. Consumer spending in Sweden in a recent Danske Bank survey showed just 4% greater than Denmark under lockdown.
There does seem to be a bit of a sea change in how those business`s are being allowed to operate of late though. Local authorities are now responsible for how they operate. These local authorities have warned proprietors that the enforcing of social distancing and other restrictions are the responsibility of the proprietors and they will shut down those that are not complying.

biko

74898 official cases
5526 officially dead
7.4% of known cases have passed

Numbers from FHMs own tracking page
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

50,000 antibody tests carried out by Werlabs AB over a 6 week period up to 17th June showed just 14% for Stockholm and 6.1% nationally.
Bergamo the epicenter of Italy`s infections showed 57%.
Sweden claim their R number is below 1, so there is no way even Stockholm can reach herd immunity let alone the rest of Sweden.

It has been an experiment with peoples lives that has caused unnecessary deaths. The comment of the Director General of their Public Health Authority Jahan Carlson, from a recent Biko post, of it being a "coincidence" was nothing short of shameful.

If there is a second wave not only do we not know how effective those antibodies will be or for long, the percentages are so low as to be negligible anyway in halting the spread.

Sweden may have kept shops, bars, restaurants, barbers, hairdressers, etc open but it is very questionable as too just how much business they did. Consumer spending in Sweden in a recent Danske Bank survey showed just 4% greater than Denmark under lockdown.
There does seem to be a bit of a sea change in how those business`s are being allowed to operate of late though. Local authorities are now responsible for how they operate. These local authorities have warned proprietors that the enforcing of social distancing and other restrictions are the responsibility of the proprietors and they will shut down those that are not complying.

So you agree they are not pursuing herd immunity? If they admit their R is below 1. For herd immunity to happen it would need to be at least 2.

greyday

tobefrank321 wrote: »

So you agree they are not pursuing herd immunity? If they admit their R is below 1. For herd immunity to happen it would need to be at least 2.

https://www.vice.com/en_au/article/xgqjyd/sweden-thinks-herd-immunity-is-the-answer-to-coronavirus

The population didn't play ball thankfully, it would have been far worse than we are seeing at present if people did not curtail their activity.

tobefrank321

greyday wrote: »

https://www.vice.com/en_au/article/xgqjyd/sweden-thinks-herd-immunity-is-the-answer-to-coronavirus

The population didn't play ball thankfully, it would have been far worse than we are seeing at present if people did not curtail their activity.

Nonsense. The Swedish government implemented a number of restrictions.

Gatherings of more than 50 people are banned. Museums have closed, and sporting events have been cancelled. At the end of March, authorities banned visits to nursing homes.

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/health-family/how-sweden-faced-the-virus-without-a-lockdown-1.4240944

Its not like they did nothing.

We know mass gatherings were an issue. Our own government didn't see fit to advise against going to Cheltenham.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

So you agree they are not pursuing herd immunity? If they admit their R is below 1. For herd immunity to happen it would need to be at least 2.

The first antibody results were know before they claimed there R was below 1. But even after those results Tegnell was still talking up immunity, claiming the results were in line with their modelling figure even though it was clear they were not.

Bit cynical

charlie14 wrote: »

The first antibody results were know before they claimed there R was below 1. But even after those results Tegnell was still talking up immunity, claiming the results were in line with their modelling figure even though it was clear they were not.

Although herd immunity was never the official strategy, immunity, to the extent it is conferred by infection, will probably play a part in preventing a second wave.

greyday

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Nonsense. The Swedish government implemented a number of restrictions.



https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/health-family/how-sweden-faced-the-virus-without-a-lockdown-1.4240944

Its not like they did nothing.

We know mass gatherings were an issue. Our own government didn't see fit to advise against going to Cheltenham.

Fortunately the population took matters in to their own hands with mobile data showing a huge decrease in activity, You are correct the Irish Government did not provide any advise about travelling to Cheltenham, they probably thought much like the Swedish that people would use common sense, they changed their stance quickly afterwards unlike the Swedish who now have over 5000 deaths which most suggest is undercounting.

greyday

Bit cynical wrote: »

Although herd immunity was never the official strategy, immunity, to the extent it is conferred by infection, will probably play a part in preventing a second wave.

Would you not be a bit cynical that they did indeed go for Herd Immunity considering Tegnell said it was the only way of controlling the virus?
The denials arrived after their deaths rate deviated from their neighbours, the majority of experts say the Swedish strategy was herd immunity but what would they know.

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

Although herd immunity was never the official strategy, immunity, to the extent it is conferred by infection, will probably play a part in preventing a second wave.

It was never acknowledges as the official strategy, but do not kid yourself it was the aim.
Even Annika Linde the previous Swedish state epidemiologist has admitted she initially thought it would work, and everyone from Tegnell to the Swedish ambassador to the US, every time they opened their mouths, could not help themselves talking up their modelling numbers on it.
Some posters here were no better.

Their antibody figures are so minimal that they will have little to no effect of immunity doing anything if there is a second wave.
If you believe they will, then you must also believe so will Spain, France, Italy and practically everywhere else who nationally have the same level. In Spain and Italy especially their levels for their epicenters are better than Stockholm.

It was a reckless experiment that caused needless deaths that are now disgustingly being claimed by the Director General of their Public Health Agency as due to a "coincidence".

99nsr125

charlie14 wrote: »

Unlike Covid-19, there is a rabies vaccine that is 100% effective if given early and can still be effective up to 10 days after infection.

I know their is, however have you ever had it ?
The answer of course is no because the risk is so low as to be negligible

Do the countries it circulates in have a lockdown or do they continue on with life as normal.

Again the answer is no because again the risk is low as to be negligible.

Now why is there a difference in reaction to these two
Is it because one is rational and the other is irrational

99nsr125

charlie14 wrote: »

Have you even read what I posted ?
Only a tiny percentage have developed antibodies.
Sweden put their faith in antibodies and are now edging ever closer to Italy as the 4th most deaths per capita of 51 European countries.
Nobody is asking you to live in a bunker. Just to follow a few simple guidelines and have a bit of respect for your fellow human beings.

Have you read what I posted ?

Your faith lies in developing antibodies maybe this fact is what shapes your opinion and holds trepidation for you

greyday

99nsr125 wrote: »

Have you read what I posted ?

Your faith lies in developing antibodies maybe this fact is what shapes your opinion and holds trepidation for you

Doesn't look like you did read what he posted, he does not have faith in antibodies with the information we have at present.

charlie14

99nsr125 wrote: »

I know their is, however have you ever had it ?
The answer of course is no because the risk is so low as to be negligible

Do the countries it circulates in have a lockdown or do they continue on with life as normal.

Again the answer is no because again the risk is low as to be negligible.

Now why is there a difference in reaction to these two
Is it because one is rational and the other is irrational

OK, lets see if you can spot the difference.

One kills 59,000 people a year even though there is a treatment 100% effective given early and still effective up until 10 days after the infection.
There is also a post exposure vaccine that gives cover for 3 years.
The vast majority of those who die do so in third world countries with very poor medical care where they cannot afford to pay for the vaccine.
3 people died due to it in the U.S.A. last year.

The other in just half a year has infected 12,523,000 and killed 560,000,has little in the way of treatment and to date there is no vaccine.
135,000 people have died due to it in the U.S.A. in four months.

You are a great believer in your immune system restoring you to health.
How do you believe it would do confronted with the Ebola Zaire virus which has a 70% fatality rate ?

charlie14

99nsr125 wrote: »

Have you read what I posted ?

Your faith lies in developing antibodies maybe this fact is what shapes your opinion and holds trepidation for you

You are the great believer that antibodies will restore health.

Have you even seen the figures for the percentages that have developed antibodies ?
In Sweden alone from 50,000 tests only 6.1% nationally have developed antibodies.
In an even larger test group in Spain, the third worst affected country in Europe, the percentage was the same.
And nobody has a clue of how effective they will be or for how long.

Bit cynical

charlie14 wrote: »

It was never acknowledges as the official strategy, but do not kid yourself it was the aim.
Even Annika Linde the previous Swedish state epidemiologist has admitted she initially thought it would work, and everyone from Tegnell to the Swedish ambassador to the US, every time they opened their mouths, could not help themselves talking up their modelling numbers on it.
Some posters here were no better.

I think it was a secondary aim. The primary aim was to flatten the curve using sustainable methods. While I think we can all agree that there have been failures in Sweden; in particular, like Ireland, Sweden failed to protect the elderly and vulnerable, on the other hand, it is still too early to say that other countries have succeeded. Some countries that have lifted lockdowns, like Romania and Portugal, are now seeing rising infections and deaths. Portugal's daily death rate is now only just below Sweden's and rising whereas Sweden's is falling. But continued lockdowns for these other countries is not feasible. For economic reasons they have to lift them.


There's no proof of this as yet, but I suspect immunity playing a part in causing numbers to fall in Sweden, and lack of immunity partly causing numbers to rise in Portugal.

mcsean2163

Fwiw, t cells are the new thing.

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/07/07/more-on-t-cells-antibody-levels-and-our-ignorance

It'll be interesting to see how that looks in Sweden. I was sure I got covid19 as lost sense of smell etc. but Abbott serology test was negative. There seems to be more doubt on the effectiveness of antibody tests now.

Swedish experiment seems to have resulted in a lot of deaths but what next for Ireland? I think at some point, we too need individual responsibility. Not sure what will happen with schools...

Bit cynical

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Fwiw, t cells are the new thing.

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/07/07/more-on-t-cells-antibody-levels-and-our-ignorance

It'll be interesting to see how that looks in Sweden. I was sure I got covid19 as lost sense of smell but Abbott serology test was negative. There seems to be more doubt on the effectiveness of antibody tests now.

Swedish experiment seems to have resulted in a lot of deaths but what next for Ireland? I think at some point we too need individual responsibility. Not sure what will happen with schools...

There's also been speculation that natural immunity pre-exists in a portion of the population possibly due to exposure to other non-covid-19 coronaviruses. This would have the effect of reducing the required herd immunity threshold.

It is, of course, far too early to be sure, but it is interesting that countries that have had fairly severe outbreaks are not seeing any resurgence after lifting restrictions. The only countries that are seeing it (still only a few countries so far) have had very mild outbreaks.

mcsean2163

Bit cynical wrote: »

There's also been speculation that natural immunity pre-exists in a portion of the population possibly due to exposure to other non-covid-19 coronaviruses. This would have the effect of reducing the required herd immunity threshold.

It is, of course, far too early to be sure, but it is interesting that countries that have had fairly severe outbreaks are not seeing any resurgence after lifting restrictions. The only countries that are seeing it (still only a few countries so far) have had very mild outbreaks.

Yes, the test will be in September. That'll establish if it is seasonal or not I guess.

South America at the moment is worth looking at especially Ecuador with respect to the rest of the countries.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

You are the great believer that antibodies will restore health.

Have you even seen the figures for the percentages that have developed antibodies ?
In Sweden alone from 50,000 tests only 6.1% nationally have developed antibodies.
In an even larger test group in Spain, the third worst affected country in Europe, the percentage was the same.
And nobody has a clue of how effective they will be or for how long.

Do you understand how vaccines work?

They stimulate antibodies

Covid 19 cannot be defeated without antibodies.

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think it was a secondary aim. The primary aim was to flatten the curve using sustainable methods. While I think we can all agree that there have been failures in Sweden; in particular, like Ireland, Sweden failed to protect the elderly and vulnerable, on the other hand, it is still too early to say that other countries have succeeded. Some countries that have lifted lockdowns, like Romania and Portugal, are now seeing rising infections and deaths. Portugal's daily death rate is now only just below Sweden's and rising whereas Sweden's is falling. But continued lockdowns for these other countries is not feasible. For economic reasons they have to lift them.


There's no proof of this as yet, but I suspect immunity playing a part in causing numbers to fall in Sweden, and lack of immunity partly causing numbers to rise in Portugal.

I never thought their strategy was ever anything other than herd immunity, and after Annika Linde`s statement I don`t believe there
is any doubt that it was anything else.


Portugal have 15.8 deaths per hundred thousand. Sweden have 53.5.
It is more likely Sweden reaching Italy`s 57.7 than Portugal reaching Sweden`s numbers.

It is difficult to know what Sweden`s daily deaths are with holidays affecting reporting, but I doubt they are less than Portugal`s daily average over the last two weeks of less than 7.


I don`t know where this suspected immunity is coming from in Sweden. Their antibody test are not showing it, and what they are showing is no better than practically anywhere else.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Do you understand how vaccines work?

They stimulate antibodies

Covid 19 cannot be defeated without antibodies.

Did you read any of the posts I was replying to
Apparently for Covid-19 there is no need for a vaccine. Our own immune system will simply restore us to health all on its own.