Sweden avoiding lockdown

charlie14

timmy_mallet wrote: »

Which is give or take 14x the mortality rate experienced elsewhere. Assuming Swedeners are as healthy as most of the rest of the world, that would suggest over 1 million cases. Well on their way to to herd immunity while the rest of us explode from parenting+homeschooling/lack of social interaction/wearing masks playing football(!)

Herd immunity
Four weeks ago the result of 50,000 antibody tests showed just 6.1% nationally had developed antibodies.

bb1234567

You'd wonder how it could be as low as 6% with so many deaths in one age group. There's 100,000 people in Sweden over 90, 1.5% of this entire demographic has died of covid. Yet only a bit more than only 1 in every 20 swedes overall even contracted covid ? How could infection and thus deaths be so concentrated within those age demographic ?

Mad Benny

It may be the case that "antibody testing alone underestimates immunity".

REF: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53248660

charlie14

Mad Benny wrote: »

It may be the case that "antibody testing alone underestimates immunity".

REF: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53248660

If anything this whole T-cell speculation has more ifs and buts than antibodies.
Nobody even knows if they block the virus, or simply protect individuals from getting sick while still leaving them capable of infecting others.
Either way, they do not look to be the solution to attaining herd immunity.

mcsean2163

charlie14 wrote: »

Herd immunity
Four weeks ago the result of 50,000 antibody tests showed just 6.1% nationally had developed antibodies.

You may have missed the t cell news?


https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-immunity-sweden-study-karolinska-a4485076.html

30% of blood tested was covid19 positive....

bob mcbob

charlie14 wrote: »

Herd immunity
Four weeks ago the result of 50,000 antibody tests showed just 6.1% nationally had developed antibodies.

Have you seen the 7 day average number of new cases for Sweden on worldometers recently? It peaked at 1123 on the 29th June. Since then the number of new daily cases has fallen off a cliff and now stands at 319.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

Something is happening because as far as I am aware Sweden has not changed their stance on lockdown.

charlie14

mcsean2163 wrote: »

You may have missed the t cell news?


https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-immunity-sweden-study-karolinska-a4485076.html

30% of blood tested was covid19 positive....

I didn`t. Post #3782.

charlie14

bob mcbob wrote: »

Have you seen the 7 day average number of new cases for Sweden on worldometers recently? It peaked at 1123 on the 29th June. Since then the number of new daily cases has fallen off a cliff and now stands at 319.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

Something is happening because as far as I am aware Sweden has not changed their stance on lockdown.

Sweden is on holidays and Worldometers haven`t posted daily figures since 2nd July. Two weeks ago.
Last antibody test results from Sweden from 50,000 samples 4 weeks ago showed national antibody levels of just 6.1%. With them claiming an R number under 1, then that will not have change to any great extent.



Btw. Local authorities in Sweden are now responsible for their restrictions and any breaking of them they are holding business owners responsible.

Bit cynical

charlie14 wrote: »

Sweden is on holidays and Worldometers haven`t posted daily figures since 2nd July.

I think you might be jumping to conclusions there. Sweden are still publishing figures despite it being a holiday period.

tobefrank321

Granted there is a huge difference in cases between Ireland and Sweden, but it only takes a few weeks of a high R0 to bring cases up.

It would be amazing if Ireland after a significant lockdown ends up with an R0 higher than Sweden who have had very limited restrictions. The Swedish R0 has remained fairly stable at around 1, while ours is up and down depending on lockdown stage.

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think you might be jumping to conclusions there. Sweden are still publishing figures despite it being a holiday period.

Not really. Sweden have always been slow in publish figures for weekends so I imagine their daily figures during a holiday period are also going to be somewhat the same.
A few weeks back Worldometers published fairly high daily figures,but the week after, even though the total remained the same, much of those numbers had been allocated to previous days.
It looks as if Worldometers have stopped publishing daily figures for some time now for perhaps that reason. Not saying the overall figures are incorrect. Just that the daily figures probably are.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Granted there is a huge difference in cases between Ireland and Sweden, but it only takes a few weeks of a high R0 to bring cases up.

It would be amazing if Ireland after a significant lockdown ends up with an R0 higher than Sweden who have had very limited restrictions. The Swedish R0 has remained fairly stable at around 1, while ours is up and down depending on lockdown stage.

I agree, but our RO is most likely up and down because of the relatively small number of new cases.
There seems to be some speculation here on Sweden`s deaths being low because they have reach some kind of herd immunity.
With an RO stable at around 1, from their test results a few weeks ago, I cannot see how that could be possible.

Ozark707

charlie14 wrote: »

Not really. Sweden have always been slow in publish figures for weekends so I imagine their daily figures during a holiday period are also going to be somewhat the same.
A few weeks back Worldometers published fairly high daily figures,but the week after, even though the total remained the same, much of those numbers had been allocated to previous days.
It looks as if Worldometers have stopped publishing daily figures for some time now for perhaps that reason. Not saying the overall figures are incorrect. Just that the daily figures probably are.

I imagine the figures they have on admissions into hospitals is pretty accurate. I was talking to a Swede and the hospitalisation figures in their county are way down on last month or so.

I would expect their to be a lag on deaths though especially if most are still happening in homes. You would hope that their numbers on confirmed cases would be pretty timely given that they should be following up ASAP on contacts.

StefanFal

charlie14 wrote: »

Sweden is on holidays and Worldometers haven`t posted daily figures since 2nd July. Two weeks ago.
Last antibody test results from Sweden from 50,000 samples 4 weeks ago showed national antibody levels of just 6.1%. With them claiming an R number under 1, then that will not have change to any great extent.



Btw. Local authorities in Sweden are now responsible for their restrictions and any breaking of them they are holding business owners responsible.

These restrictions have never been enforced. I was at an event on Saturday where the bar/restaurant had set up a tent external to the bar with food buffet. Later on a band played in there with dancing etc. Easily in excess of 100 people in there alone despite the rules of no more than 50 people.

Yesterday while out for a bike ride I stopped off for a coffee. The weather was great so it was packed both inside and out. Absolutely no social distancing of any form. Before leaving I took a trip to the loo. There was a queue outside of around 10 people practically stuck together resulting in me having a pee in the forest.

charlie14

StefanFal wrote: »

These restrictions have never been enforced. I was at an event on Saturday where the bar/restaurant had set up a tent external to the bar with food buffet. Later on a band played in there with dancing etc. Easily in excess of 100 people in there alone despite the rules of no more than 50 people.

Yesterday while out for a bike ride I stopped off for a coffee. The weather was great so it was packed both inside and out. Absolutely no social distancing of any form. Before leaving I took a trip to the loo. There was a queue outside of around 10 people practically stuck together resulting in me having a pee in the forest.

Sounds like the forest was the safest place alright.
I would have thought with the local authorities now in charge of enforcing restrictions, and their warning to business owners on their responsibilities on enforcement, things might have changed somewhat, but it seems not.
There have been warning recently from the Swedish authorities on a second wave being imminent and to follow the guidelines on restrictions, but from what you say it sounds as if they are wasting their time as nobody is listening.

charlie14

Ozark707 wrote: »

I imagine the figures they have on admissions into hospitals is pretty accurate. I was talking to a Swede and the hospitalisation figures in their county are way down on last month or so.

I would expect their to be a lag on deaths though especially if most are still happening in homes. You would hope that their numbers on confirmed cases would be pretty timely given that they should be following up ASAP on contacts.

I too would imagine the hospital admissions are pretty accurate, but other than that it is difficult to know what the actual daily figures are.



For the 16th July the Swedish newspaper The Local posted 21 deaths and 365 new cases but Worldometers shows 10 deaths and 115 new cases, so I presume that is due to just slow reporting and both containing historical figures, as for the two previous days the figure for new cases seem to have been increases to over 400 for each day.
As you say, hopefully new confirmed cases are being followed up ASAP on contact tracing.
Although from another posters experience here when out for a cycle, that may not be easy.

StefanFal

charlie14 wrote: »

Sounds like the forest was the safest place alright.
I would have thought with the local authorities now in charge of enforcing restrictions, and their warning to business owners on their responsibilities on enforcement, things might have changed somewhat, but it seems not.
There have been warning recently from the Swedish authorities on a second wave being imminent and to follow the guidelines on restrictions, but from what you say it sounds as if they are wasting their time as nobody is listening.

No one is listening. You hardly hear anything on the news about it anymore. Swedes are over this as far as they are concerned.

Bit cynical

StefanFal wrote: »

No one is listening. You hardly hear anything on the news about it anymore. Swedes are over this as far as they are concerned.

Then we have this as reported by Biko last month.

biko wrote: »

Swedes during a current pandemic

https://twitter.com/Coronapandemina/status/1276580600288247808

I imagine some posters are feeling that things are a bit unfair. Swedes, with minimal restrictions that aren't even being enforced, are partying and crowding into public transport and bars yet daily cases, icu numbers and deaths are falling. On the other hand, we in Ireland, who have endured a lockdown and brought numbers very low, can't yet open pubs for normal service because we can't get the R(t) number below 1.

greyday

Bit cynical wrote: »

Then we have this as reported by Biko last month.



I imagine some posters are feeling that things are a bit unfair. Swedes, with minimal restrictions that aren't even being enforced, are partying and crowding into public transport and bars yet daily cases, icu numbers and deaths are falling. On the other hand, we in Ireland, who have endured a lockdown and brought numbers very low, can't yet open pubs for normal service because we can't get the R(t) number below 1.

Which is why people are sceptical of what the Swedes are reporting, it makes no sense and points to the swedes not being completely honest with their figures.

Bit cynical

greyday wrote: »

Which is why people are sceptical of what the Swedes are reporting, it makes no sense and points to the swedes not being completely honest with their figures.

You think the Swedish numbers can't possibly be true?

greyday

Bit cynical wrote: »

You think the Swedish numbers can't possibly be true?

Yes
Either they are not counting the deaths the same way as other Countries or the political fallout from being so out of kilter with their neighbours necessitated they massaging the figures downwards.
Unless the virus burns out as some have speculated but which there is no evidence of happening as yet.

Someone might be able to explain how their death rate could fall so much when they have not obeyed the light restrictions which were implemented, there does not seem to be any conceivable reason the death rate could reduce unless the population strictly obeyed the advise given on social distancing or they got to a position of close to herd immunity which seems unlikely if the percentages required to be infected was correct.

JimmyVik

Bit cynical wrote: »

You think the Swedish numbers can't possibly be true?

Call me cynical

Bit cynical

greyday wrote: »

Yes
Either they are not counting the deaths the same way as other Countries or the political fallout from being so out of kilter with their neighbours necessitated they massaging the figures downwards.

Unless the virus burns out as some have speculated but which there is no evidence of happening as yet.

Obviously it is going to be one or other of these two possibilities. What is your reason for preferring the first?

Also with the second possibility, what evidence would you need to see before you believed that the virus might run its course in a particular region?

greyday

Bit cynical wrote: »

Obviously it is going to be one or other of these two possibilities. What is your reason for preferring the first?

Also with the second possibility, what evidence would you need to see before you believed that the virus might run its course in a particular region?

I would like to see Brazil numbers drop substantially very soon, not nearly as much as Sweden but still massively if we are to believe the virus burns out with minimal interventions.

I think politics dictated the Swedes would massage the numbers, when you compare to the neighbours it looks like the strategy was diabolical.

KindOfIrish

greyday wrote: »

Which is why people are sceptical of what the Swedes are reporting, it makes no sense and points to the swedes not being completely honest with their figures.

People who are skeptical of Sweden figures are idiots. It's one one of the most transparent and non corrupted countries in the world. Sweden approach of dealing with COVID has been right from the beginning and the next 2-3 years will prove it. Unfortunately they were the only country in Western World who has not fallen to "pandemic" hysteria. Since the beginning of COVID madness my respect for Sweden politicians and people has been growing exponentially!

Bit cynical

greyday wrote: »

I would like to see Brazil numbers drop substantially very soon, not nearly as much as Sweden but still massively if we are to believe the virus burns out with minimal interventions.

But would you not also believe that they too were massaging the numbers if that happened?

I think politics dictated the Swedes would massage the numbers, when you compare to the neighbours it looks like the strategy was diabolical.

Well certainly they have an overall higher number of deaths compared to neighbouring Nordic countries though lower than some other European countries; they have not attempted to hide this.

But what we're talking about is the daily numbers after the peak and the overall trend in those numbers. Sure they don't fit in to your understanding of how the virus is supposed to work but that might be down to your understanding rather than deliberate fakery on the part of Sweden.

JJayoo

Sweden is a weird one they are desperate to come across as progressive.

For example how many people have heard on the news of all the explosions in Sweden?

greyday

KindOfIrish wrote: »

People who are skeptical of Sweden figures are idiots. It's one one of the most transparent and non corrupted countries in the world. Sweden approach of dealing with COVID has been right from the beginning and the next 2-3 years will prove it. Unfortunately they were the only country in Western World who has not fallen to "pandemic" hysteria. Since the beginning of COVID madness my respect for Sweden politicians and people has been growing exponentially!

Of course they are!
The death rate in Sweden ids the sort of thing that costs people jobs, politicians and those involved in the control of the virus, as neither covered themselves in glory when compared to their neighbours, it is not inconceivable they did what they had to do to keep their jobs.
It was noticeable how the death rate dropped quite a bit after the WHO issued a warning of what they could face if they did not tighten restrictions,. human nature in self preservation could very well be what we are seeing with Sweden.

Can you explain how their death rates could have dropped so significantly after the WHO warning?

greyday

Bit cynical wrote: »

But would you not also believe that they too were massaging the numbers if that happened?

Well certainly they have an overall higher number of deaths compared to neighbouring Nordic countries though lower than some other European countries; they have not attempted to hide this.

But what we're talking about is the daily numbers after the peak and the overall trend in those numbers. Sure they don't fit in to your understanding of how the virus is supposed to work but that might be down to your understanding rather than deliberate fakery on the part of Sweden.

The evidence thus far suggests suppression with strict measures which are adhered to is the way to reduce infections and deaths quickly, Sweden would seem to have done this without the strict measures.
If the virus burns itself out then Swedens gamble has paid off, that is a huge IF with no evidence to suggest thus far it was the correct gamble.

Bit cynical

greyday wrote: »

If the virus burns itself out then Swedens gamble has paid off, that is a huge IF with no evidence to suggest thus far it was the correct gamble.

But since no evidence has so far been supplied that Sweden has been massaging their numbers, what you are saying is that if the official statistics supplied by Sweden are correct, then Sweden's science-based approach has been the right one.