Sweden avoiding lockdown

greyday

Bit cynical wrote: »

But since no evidence has so far been supplied that Sweden has been massaging their numbers, what you are saying is that if the official statistics supplied by Sweden are correct, then Sweden's science-based approach has been the right one.

If the figures are believed then Yes, the gamble is paying off.

SeaBreezes

bob mcbob wrote: »

Have you seen the 7 day average number of new cases for Sweden on worldometers recently? It peaked at 1123 on the 29th June. Since then the number of new daily cases has fallen off a cliff and now stands at 319.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

Something is happening because as far as I am aware Sweden has not changed their stance on lockdown.

Summer hols and no schools/colleges?

SeaBreezes

greyday wrote: »

If the figures are believed then Yes, the gamble is paying off.

Apart from all the deaths so far, and assuming thry have herd immunity now as economically the gamble didnt pay off.

greyday

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Apart from all the deaths so far, and assuming thry have herd immunity now as economically the gamble didnt pay off.

Domestically they are in a better position as they did not pause their economy as much as others, on the other hand they have multiples of the death rate of their neighbours.
I am very sceptical that we are seeing the correct numbers but hope the Swedes have got it right as I am fed up with our restrictions.

Blazer

KindOfIrish wrote: »

People who are skeptical of Sweden figures are idiots. It's one one of the most transparent and non corrupted countries in the world. Sweden approach of dealing with COVID has been right from the beginning and the next 2-3 years will prove it. Unfortunately they were the only country in Western World who has not fallen to "pandemic" hysteria. Since the beginning of COVID madness my respect for Sweden politicians and people has been growing exponentially!

possibly...but then we have idiots like this. in fact utterly selfish idiots or scumbags as I like to call them.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=113603217&postcount=1830

cnocbui

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Apart from all the deaths so far, and assuming thry have herd immunity now as economically the gamble didnt pay off.

It will be very interesting to see the second quarter GDP results. Ericsson just beat estimates, and a Swedish staffing company is up 10.7% on the same time last year.

15 July 2020
Dedicare (DEDI: SS), a Swedish staffing firm, reported revenue for the second quarter ending 30 June 2020 of SEK 216.5 million (€20.9 million), an uptick of 10.7% compared with the same period last year.

the incredible pudding

greyday wrote: »

Yes
Either they are not counting the deaths the same way as other Countries or the political fallout from being so out of kilter with their neighbours necessitated they massaging the figures downwards.
Unless the virus burns out as some have speculated but which there is no evidence of happening as yet.

Someone might be able to explain how their death rate could fall so much when they have not obeyed the light restrictions which were implemented, there does not seem to be any conceivable reason the death rate could reduce unless the population strictly obeyed the advise given on social distancing or they got to a position of close to herd immunity which seems unlikely if the percentages required to be infected was correct.

Well the numbers in the ICUs has dropped drastically, additionally the ability / knowledge of how to treat infected has improved a lot due to global efforts. There was a clear and obvious peak and the trend has been moving downward since that peak. I don't see how it's that hard to understand, the graph has been very clear for a long time. It's just been a much more gradual decline than other countries which have mostly made the curve drop off far more drastically by imposing a lockdown. I think the holidays are making the very recent numbers look a little lower right now but they'll be addressed in time and it should continue to show a slow downward trend that won't drop to 0 any time soon I feel.

The number of cases is a strange one, as i mentioned before, about a month ago they offered free testing for people. It was hugely subscibed to people (the application crashed and slots were booked out for weeks) and thus huge spikes in numbers were recorded. It's now fairly easy to get a slot (or have one sent to your home) so it would seem that the demand has been squashed somewhat. I don't believe the figures are being messed with. There isn't really much of an incentive here, it's kind of notorious in Sweden how people don't really get blamed a huge deal for those types of mistakes, you own it, analyse it and try to do better. It's different if it's a personal failing to your social responsibility like dodging tax or littering!

I still think it'll only be in a year or two that we see the strategy was a complete failure, minor failure or semi-reasonable thing to do.
It's already been a partial failure in my mind due to how they completely messed up when they didn't legally enforce measures to protect people in nursing homes. Protect the workers' wages, don't let them go in sick and provide them with the necessary protective equipment. They shouldn't have just advised the private businesses to do so.
I think they also completely failed the migrant communities (their deaths are hugely over represented in the statistics)

Sconsey

cnocbui wrote: »

It will be very interesting to see the second quarter GDP results. Ericsson just beat estimates, and a Swedish staffing company is up 10.7% on the same time last year.

Ericsson results have not much to do with the Swedish economy, they are a multinational company, it looks like higer than expected sales in China are the main conrtibutor....

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0717/1153878-ericsson-quarterly-results/

greyday

the incredible pudding wrote: »

Well the numbers in the ICUs has dropped drastically, additionally the ability / knowledge of how to treat infected has improved a lot due to global efforts. There was a clear and obvious peak and the trend has been moving downward since that peak. I don't see how it's that hard to understand, the graph has been very clear for a long time. It's just been a much more gradual decline than other countries which have mostly made the curve drop off far more drastically by imposing a lockdown. I think the holidays are making the very recent numbers look a little lower right now but they'll be addressed in time and it should continue to show a slow downward trend that won't drop to 0 any time soon I feel.

The number of cases is a strange one, as i mentioned before, about a month ago they offered free testing for people. It was hugely subscibed to people (the application crashed and slots were booked out for weeks) and thus huge spikes in numbers were recorded. It's now fairly easy to get a slot (or have one sent to your home) so it would seem that the demand has been squashed somewhat. I don't believe the figures are being messed with. There isn't really much of an incentive here, it's kind of notorious in Sweden how people don't really get blamed a huge deal for those types of mistakes, you own it, analyse it and try to do better. It's different if it's a personal failing to your social responsibility like dodging tax or littering!

I still think it'll only be in a year or two that we see the strategy was a complete failure, minor failure or semi-reasonable thing to do.
It's already been a partial failure in my mind due to how they completely messed up when they didn't legally enforce measures to protect people in nursing homes. Protect the workers' wages, don't let them go in sick and provide them with the necessary protective equipment. They shouldn't have just advised the private businesses to do so.
I think they also completely failed the migrant communities (their deaths are hugely over represented in the statistics)

How do you explain infections rising and deaths dropping?
I read articles recently where people looking after the elderly complained that they were not being allowed in to hospitals, its easy to see ICU numbers drop if that is what has happened.

Do you have an explanation why deaths dropped in the absence of restrictions?

On your final paragraph, it seems like the vast majority of Countries failed the elderly in care homes.

cnocbui

Sconsey wrote: »

Ericsson results have not much to do with the Swedish economy, they are a multinational company, it looks like higer than expected sales in China are the main conrtibutor....

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0717/1153878-ericsson-quarterly-results/

Good thing I didn't just mention Ericsson's results, then.

biko

KindOfIrish wrote: »

People who are skeptical of Sweden figures are idiots. It's one one of the most transparent and non corrupted countries in the world. Sweden approach of dealing with COVID has been right from the beginning and the next 2-3 years will prove it.

But Sweden cannot prove their approach will work, they never could.
They have moved the goalposts continuously and it seems they are just making things up as they go.

KindOfIrish wrote: »

Unfortunately they were the only country in Western World who has not fallen to "pandemic" hysteria. Since the beginning of COVID madness my respect for Sweden politicians and people has been growing exponentially!

I think there are two kinds of people in this thread; the unbelievers like me and the believers like you, and tbh I don't think any amount of dead OAPs will swing your vote.

the incredible pudding

greyday wrote: »

How do you explain infections rising and deaths dropping?
I read articles recently where people looking after the elderly complained that they were not being allowed in to hospitals, its easy to see ICU numbers drop if that is what has happened.

Do you have an explanation why deaths dropped in the absence of restrictions?

On your final paragraph, it seems like the vast majority of Countries failed the elderly in care homes.

I explained the spikes in infections - they changed testing. Before June they were just testing people who were obviously sick or in the healthcare industry. They changed that after the spike / peak started to decline.

I don't think very elderly sick people shouldn't be going to ICUs, there's a myriad of reasons and arguments for and against this but I don't think that's really in the scope here.

There are recommended restrictions here, there always have been. About 50% of people are working from home, and there's a whole list of advise that people are told to follow and the majority seem to do so. You obviously get cases like StefanFal mentioned below but I would argue that those cases will always stand out, no matter what country you're in - you'll have selfish people that will disregard the rules and do what they want. What's less noticeable is all the people who are trying to be responsible. Most people in supermarkets give you a bit of space, like everywhere the ground is labelled) but you will always notice that one assh*** that decides to queue 1 foot behind you.

Bit cynical

the incredible pudding wrote: »

I explained the spikes in infections - they changed testing.

To illustrate:

Up to around 1st April, the curve most likely reflected actual inflections. Then we hit a limit due to testing. Infections continued to rise but the graph is flat.

Then around the beginning of June they greatly increased testing and so we get higher but still flat line. This continued until the end of month when numbers had sufficiently fallen that infections started to be reflected again in daily cases.

The actual peak in infections probably occurred a couple of weeks before the peak in daily deaths - maybe mid-April or thereabouts. What we see in the graph above is a highly truncated version of reality.

greyday

Bit cynical wrote: »

To illustrate:

Up to around 1st April, the curve most likely reflected actual inflections. Then we hit a limit due to testing. Infections continued to rise but the graph is flat.

Then around the beginning of June they greatly increased testing and so we get higher but still flat line. This continued until the end of month when numbers had sufficiently fallen that infections started to be reflected again in daily cases.

The actual peak in infections probably occurred a couple of weeks before the peak in daily deaths - maybe mid-April or thereabouts. What we see in the graph above is a highly truncated version of reality.

I should change my username to sceptical, It seems the Swedes like to take the month of July off for holidays which coincides with drop off in deaths and infections from Covid....

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

But since no evidence has so far been supplied that Sweden has been massaging their numbers, what you are saying is that if the official statistics supplied by Sweden are correct, then Sweden's science-based approach has been the right one.

The only thing science-based about their approach was modelling figures on herd immunity, and as we have seen from test results they were miles off.
It was a reckless approach that caused needless deaths that now has them with the fifth highest death rate in Europe and getting ever closer to Italy whose health services were completely over-run.
For a country as wealthy as Sweden, not something to be proud off imo.

the incredible pudding

greyday wrote: »

I should change my username to sceptical, It seems the Swedes like to take the month of July off for holidays which coincides with drop off in deaths and infections from Covid....

Scepticism is healthy, I would agree that the reporting has definitely possibly slowed down a bit but not massively and I do believe all the numbers will be counted as accurately as they can be.

I've never taken the infection rate as a useful metric here though, which is a real pity. The ICU numbers have been though - at Stockholm's peak it was at 230 for corona, now it's at 17.

Bit cynical

greyday wrote: »

I should change my username to sceptical, It seems the Swedes like to take the month of July off for holidays which coincides with drop off in deaths and infections from Covid....

I would not agree with that or at least I would expect the holiday effect to be small. There has been a general downward trend in daily deaths since April.

Of course they could still be faking all the numbers but I think evidence would need to be provided in that case.

greyday

Bit cynical wrote: »

I would not agree with that or at least I would expect the holiday effect to be small. There has been a general downward trend in daily deaths since April.

Of course they could still be faking all the numbers but I think evidence would need to be provided in that case.

I doubt they faked all the numbers, possibly just when they deviated so far from their neighbours, I have been reading that a very high number of swedes take holidays from July 1st with police stations and hospitals even closing down.

the incredible pudding

greyday wrote: »

I doubt they faked all the numbers, possibly just when they deviated so far from their neighbours, I have been reading that a very high number of swedes take holidays from July 1st with police stations and hospitals even closing down.

I'd love a link to that! I can imagine there being some shortages and my own workplace definitely has larger long term absentees than normal but we're expected to have people available to cover in key areas (you're legally allowed to take 4 consecutive weeks in between June and August). Restaurants or Cafés might close, maybe even small clinics but I can't imagine vital public services being totally shut.

greyday

the incredible pudding wrote: »

I'd love a link to that! I can imagine there being some shortages and my own workplace definitely has larger long term absentees than normal but we're expected to have people available to cover in key areas (you're legally allowed to take 4 consecutive weeks in between June and August). Restaurants or Cafés might close, maybe even small clinics but I can't imagine vital public services being totally shut.

https://hejsweden.com/en/swedish-holiday-dont-work-in-july/

Take your holiday in July

During the months of July, whole Sweden seems to go on holiday.

Some stores are closed, so are a few hospitals – no reason for Swedes to get ill when the sun is shining – and even some police stations shut down entirely – no crime to solve when criminals are on vacation as well.

Ozark707

greyday wrote: »

I doubt they faked all the numbers, possibly just when they deviated so far from their neighbours, I have been reading that a very high number of swedes take holidays from July 1st with police stations and hospitals even closing down.

Lots of Swedes would actually take their holidays the week before, after midsummer. That is the start of the holiday season really but yes effectively July is a write off there.

Ozark707

the incredible pudding wrote: »

I've never taken the infection rate as a useful metric here though, which is a real pity. The ICU numbers have been though - at Stockholm's peak it was at 230 for corona, now it's at 17.

That corresponds somewhat with a figure I saw from the western side of the country. In theory their death rate would be expected to drop off considerably assuming they have managed to improve in keeping it out of OAH's.

biko

I suppose we should thank the Swedish government for volunteering their country to do the polar opposite of everyone else in the world.
Otherwise future historians would have nothing to compare to.

They will be speaking of this virus for hundreds of years to come, just like we still speak of the Black Death and 1918 pandemic.

Boggles

To be fair the Swedes have done "remarkably well".

They looked at their social structures and how the population behaves and they thought they could get away with it.

I don't think there is many countries that could have tried what they did and had such an outcome.

But they need to realize there is absolutely no way they can continue you this into winter, the sun rises at 9 and sets at 3.

They need to accept their folly and change tactics or 1000s more will just die needlessly, the mental strain on the elderly there must be off the charts.

99nsr125

Boggles wrote: »

To be fair the Swedes have done "remarkably well".

They looked at their social structures and how the population behaves and they thought they could get away with it.

I don't think there is many countries that could have tried what they did and had such an outcome.

But they need to realize there is absolutely no way they can continue you this into winter, the sun rises at 9 and sets at 3.

They need to accept their folly and change tactics or 1000s more will just die needlessly, the mental strain on the elderly there must be off the charts.

Nobody's life is going to be saved you're just extending the pain and destroying everyone's lfe because it's a reality you are incapable of accepting.

greyday

99nsr125 wrote: »

Nobody's life is going to be saved you're just extending the pain and destroying everyone's lfe because it's a reality you are incapable of accepting.

We should all be put to sleep when we are born by that logic, that would be extremely efficient while what you are advocating is a mass cull of the elderly because they are going to die anyway, classy.

Boggles

99nsr125 wrote: »

Nobody's life is going to be saved you're just extending the pain and destroying everyone's lfe because it's a reality you are incapable of accepting.

Well aren't you a ray of sunshine.

99nsr125

greyday wrote: »

We should all be put to sleep when we are born by that logic, that would be extremely efficient while what you are advocating is a mass cull of the elderly because they are going to die anyway, classy.

I'm advocating the best for the most and we already do cull, morning after pill, abortion by pill, abortion by medical intervention are culls from necessity to simple convenience.

If you want to advocate against a cull advocate against abortion, for the life that's never had a chance for it is the ones who have never had a chance or are just beginning who need protecting

99nsr125

Boggles wrote: »

Well aren't you a ray of sunshine.

It's not a outcome we desire but it is one that we cannot avoid

the incredible pudding

There's some level of nonsense here on both sides.