Sweden avoiding lockdown

kksaints

IAMAMORON wrote: »

That is sweeping statement if ever I read one.

Time will tell, but IMO it has been a very "risky" policy, we have no idea if it will prove reckless or not yet. But they do currently have a high death rate. They may be developing a decent herd immunity and asymptomatic hosts and it is not a disaster … yet, I would give it a week or two at least. The UK did the same for a while and look at the finger pointing going on there.

Sure is. Doesn't even look like its doing their economy much good either. GDP decline of 10% and Unemployment Rate of 13.5% estimated according to their Finance Minister in this Guardian article.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/15/sweden-coronavirus-death-toll-reaches-1000

millb

CraftySue wrote: »

It's from reading Richard Dawkins, but there is information on the internet relating to the same. A higher percentage of those in Nordic countries had a natural immunity to the HIV virus, Sweden had a 10% immunity, this gradually reduced throughout Europe, until you reached Africa which had a 0% immunity to HIV. This all ties into how countries were affected previously to different medieval plagues years ago, and how people develop immunity. We might find it's a similar thing with Nordic countries to the coronavirus.

Not,ideal- but here is a link which relates somewhat to what I'm trying to get at.
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2005-03/uol-bdw031005.php

Professor Duncan added: "Haemorrhagic plague did not disappear after the Great Plague of London in 1665-66 but continued in Sweden, Copenhagen, Russia, Poland and Hungary until 1800. This maintenance of haemorrhagic plague provided continuing selection pressure on the CCR5-Ä32 mutation and explains why it occurs today at its highest frequency in Scandinavia and Russia."

Ce he sin

Bailee Curved Lobotomy wrote: »

...

Sweden also has about 1/2 the population density of Ireland, and are somewhat socially distant by default.

If you just divide the population by the area you get a very low average density, but that's misleading. Most people live in the south, as you get north of Stockholm numbers fall off fairly rapidly.
Most people live in blocks of flats in suburbs so the population density in the areas in which people actually live is much higher than you might expect.

biko

You're taking away people's romantic notion of what Sweden looks like

ush

biko wrote: »

That doesn't mean I want them to fail. I want someone more cautious to take over, like Cecilia Soderberg-Naucler.

I rang Cecilia Soderberg-Naucler and she hung up on me.

biko

Well, there are 22 scientists in Sweden that want a better approach so maybe one of them can assist.
https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dn.se%2Fdebatt%2Ffolkhalsomyndigheten-har-misslyckats-nu-maste-politikerna-gripa-in%2F
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/0nyJQ6/22-forskare-folkhalsomyndigheten-har-misslyckats-med-sin-coronastrate

It's turning into a right slagging match, but so far the government seem to think Anders Tegnell is still the right person to lead the corona effort.

Spanish Eyes

Wonder how things are in Malmo.

But anyway, let them at it. I bet they, like many other countries are economical with the truth somehow. Or maybe they just keep practising eugenics. They have form.

At the end of the day who really cares.

ush

biko wrote: »

Well, there are 22 scientists in Sweden that want a better approach so maybe one of them can assist.
https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dn.se%2Fdebatt%2Ffolkhalsomyndigheten-har-misslyckats-nu-maste-politikerna-gripa-in%2F
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/0nyJQ6/22-forskare-folkhalsomyndigheten-har-misslyckats-med-sin-coronastrate

It's turning into a right slagging match, but so far the government seem to think Anders Tegnell is still the right person to lead the corona effort.

Swivel eyed loons. Good for entertainment value, if nothing else. Their data was off. The sudden rise they freaked out about was due to delayed reporting over the holiday weekend. It was to be expected. What sort of professional researchers make such an elementary mistakes?

biko

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

At the end of the day who really cares.

Every old person that could have lived.
The hundreds of people now dead that might have been alive.

Spanish Eyes

biko wrote: »

Every old person that could have lived.
The hundreds of people now dead that might have been alive now.

I was referring to Swedish people.

I get the impression that they don't really care about compromised or vulnerable people, as long as life, such as they know it can go on.

Different society really.

ush

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I was referring to Swedish people.

I get the impression that they don't really care about compromised or vulnerable people, as long as life, such as they know it can go on.

Different society really.

Yeah, they push old people off cliffs at midsummer.

Spanish Eyes

ush wrote: »

Yeah, they push old people off cliffs at midsummer.

Link, lol

Att vara en hest

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Link, lol

reference to the movie "midsommar" which in turn references something called ättestupa but it's not clear if it was ever really a real thing or just a legend.

metricspaces

sydthebeat wrote: »

there is absolutely no data available to make this conclusion so far.

we cannot know if their approach is right for them until this all settles down.

A few days ago you were doing exactly this. Comparing to Sweden and making conclusions. Glad you've seen the light.

Danzy

ush wrote: »

Yeah, they push old people off cliffs at midsummer.

If 2 countries could get away with killing the elderly for being burden, it would be Sweden and the Dutch.

Breezin

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

At the end of the day who really cares.

Anyone concerned at the continuing social and economic cost of the policies pursued in the majority of European states.

Danzy

Breezin wrote: »

Anyone concerned at the continuing social and economic cost of the policies pursued in the majority of European states.

Yes but aware that it would be so much worse if there was no such approach.

Rvsmmnps

Danzy wrote: »

Yes but aware that it would be so much worse if there was no such approach.

Not at all,this is going to mess things up for the expense of a few old sick vulnerable folk.Take that with a pinch of salt,but in hindsight this is what it will be.

Absolute bonkers

ush

Danzy wrote: »

If 2 countries could get away with killing the elderly for being burden, it would be Sweden and the Dutch.

For being a burden, yes. But the danes do it just for fun.

Breezin

Danzy wrote: »

Yes but aware that it would be so much worse if there was no such approach.

Isn't the whole point of this thread that such an approach ultimately may be futile? Because both are experiments the findings of which will only be apparent in the longer term...

Del Griffith

sydthebeat wrote: »

I really doubt the the numbers that "fall down the stairs" and die with covid are in anyway equitable to those that die due to the virus without being tested.... That's just non sensical, especially when viewed against their very low testing figures.

"I’ve never written so many death certificates. I’ve never worked this many hours,” says an exhausted Issa Yacoub, a doctor working in Sodersjukhuset, one of Stockholm’s largest public hospitals."

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-lockdown-doctor-death-certificates-latest-a9462796.html

It's not sensical at all when you look at the profile of the vast, vast majority of covid deaths. I don't want to be insensitive but ages 80, 85+, with serious underlying health conditions.. these are one foot in the gravers for the most part.

This article compares covid v non covid mortality in the same people. It's not that different.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51979654

So if you attribute 100% them as 100% "fatality fur to covid19', well i'm not sure that's the right way to count it.

From source above:
"Many people who die of Covid [the disease caused by coronavirus] would have died anyway within a short period," he says

MadYaker

Del Griffith wrote: »

It's not sensical at all when you look at the profile of the vast, vast majority of covid deaths. I don't want to be insensitive but ages 80, 85+, with serious underlying health conditions.. these are one foot in the gravers for the most part.

This article compares covid v non covid mortality in the same people. It's not that different.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51979654

So if you attribute 100% them as 100% "fatality fur to covid19', well i'm not sure that's the right way to count it.

From source above:
"Many people who die of Covid [the disease caused by coronavirus] would have died anyway within a short period," he says

I havent read the article yet but I wonder is there a way to quantify this? Will we see a reduction in deaths in the immediate aftermath of this pandemic due to it killing a lot of people who would have died in the subsequent months? Ive no idea

Widdensushi

MadYaker wrote: »

I havent read the article yet but I wonder is there a way to quantify this? Will we see a reduction in deaths in the immediate aftermath of this pandemic due to it killing a lot of people who would have died in the subsequent months? Ive no idea

looking at the the French aircraft carrier statistics would lead you to believe that people that are fit and after going through regular health checks that would show any underlying conditions should have a very good recovery rate. Obviously many of those on the ship may be at an early stage of the illness so that could change,worth watching though.

Cyrus

MadYaker wrote: »

I havent read the article yet but I wonder is there a way to quantify this? Will we see a reduction in deaths in the immediate aftermath of this pandemic due to it killing a lot of people who would have died in the subsequent months? Ive no idea

What will become apparent is that the number of deaths in 2020 is probably not any higher than many other recent years

Cyrus

Cyrus wrote: »

What will become apparent is that the number of deaths in 2020 is probably not any higher than many other recent years

Emergency workers in New York described their peak as a daily 911 in terms of what they were dealing with. So definitely not an ordinary amount of deaths.

wakka12

Cyrus wrote: »

What will become apparent is that the number of deaths in 2020 is probably not any higher than many other recent years

Netherlands reported the highest number of deaths of Dutch citizens in a week since WW2 two weeks ago, so no

Loafing Oaf

wakka12 wrote: »

Netherlands reported the highest number of deaths of Dutch citizens in a week since WW2 two weeks ago, so no

The thesis is that all/nearly all of these people would have been due to be passing away in 2020 anyway and covid is just the straw that broke the camel's back. Bit of a stretch...

biko

https://c19.se/
13329 cases
1442 dead
death rate 10.8%

sydthebeat

Cyrus wrote: »

What will become apparent is that the number of deaths in 2020 is probably not any higher than many other recent years

"Probably"....

When I see this is a statement it makes what comes afterwards worthless

loyatemu

biko wrote: »

https://c19.se/
13329 cases
1442 dead
death rate 10.8%

the death rate is meaningless if they're hardly testing. If they only tested people who died their death rate would be 100%.

biko

The death rate among known cases is over 10 percent. As we can see from my postings over the days it is rising.
Why do you think that is meaningless information?

jibber5000

sydthebeat wrote: »

"Probably"....

When I see this is a statement it makes what comes afterwards worthless

We know for a fact that in Ireland >90% of those that died have 0% chance of 10 year survival.

No reason why would be different there.

Glenomra

Becoming more obvious every day that Sweden avoided the hysteria and implemented a sensible policy.

biko

It's way too early to tell if Sweden's policy is good or not for their economy.

Glenomra

Glenomra wrote: »

Becoming more obvious every day that Sweden avoided the hysteria and implemented a sensible policy.

How?

Ireland death rate peaked 10 days ago. Restrictions will be relaxed in a few weeks. Ireland have handled it brilliantly imo.

sydthebeat

jibber5000 wrote: »

We know for a fact that in Ireland >90% of those that died have 0% chance of 10 year survival.

No reason why would be different there.

What a very, very strange statement to pull directly out of your hole.

When did we start triaging cases on a "likely to live more than ten years" basis??

Do you work for a pension company by any chance??

wakka12

Glenomra wrote: »

Becoming more obvious every day that Sweden avoided the hysteria and implemented a sensible policy.

I dont see how this is obvious at all, over 1050 people have died in Sweden in the last 14 days

sydthebeat

Glenomra wrote: »

Becoming more obvious every day that Sweden avoided the hysteria and implemented a sensible policy.

Not if what the WHO said today turns out to be correct.

If "Herd immunity" turns out not to work, then their approach will have been spectacularly wrong

zerosugarbuzz

biko wrote: »

It's way too early to tell if Sweden's policy is good or not for their economy.

Well it definitely won’t damage their economy

zerosugarbuzz

wakka12 wrote: »

I dont see how this is obvious at all, over 1050 people have died in Sweden in the last 14 days

All of them very old or compromised in other health issues

Del Griffith

biko wrote: »

https://c19.se/
13329 cases
1442 dead
death rate 10.8%

This shows how ludicrous it is trying to call a death rate % with totally inadequate data

alchemist33

zerosugarbuzz wrote: »

All of them very old or compromised in other health issues

That would make their population unique

MadYaker

Cyrus wrote: »

What will become apparent is that the number of deaths in 2020 is probably not any higher than many other recent years

Some regions in the UK have seen a 30% increase in deaths in march 2020 compared to march 2019 so I think what you're saying is clearly nonsense. Of course deaths will increase because of this, how could they not?

sydthebeat

zerosugarbuzz wrote: »

Well it definitely won’t damage their economy

Its ALREADY damaging their economy.....

They are predicting a similar downturn to the 2008 financial crash.

Do some research, its not hard to find this information

wakka12

zerosugarbuzz wrote: »

All of them very old or compromised in other health issues

And? A fraction of that number of people who are old and with health issues would have died within the last two weeks in a typical year, influenza and pneumonia kills 1000 swedes in an entire year, this has done more than that in 14 days

Though it does have to be said Ireland has lost considerably more citizens in the last 14 days to COVID than would die from influenza in an entire year also despite the lockdown

But personally I dont care, even if Sweden turned out to be 'right' I am still happy with the decision Ireland took. It seemed liked the best idea, Sweden took an incredibly big risk that imo was not worth it. Great for them if it works, but I dont think it was ever worth the risk.

Akrasia

sydthebeat wrote: »

"Probably"....

When I see this is a statement it makes what comes afterwards worthless

Why?

Probably means 'most likely' so its something that is very likely to happen but not guaranteed

Given that the future is not certain, you should be more concerned by someone saying something will definitely happen because 99% of the time they are overstating the likelyhood

According to many, Liverpool were 'definitely' gonna win the premiership this year but now its uncertain if there will be any winner this year, it could be decided by lawyers

Breezin

Good perspective here on Sweden taking the longer view, from a Brit living there:

Asked about the Danish government's closing of their borders (and most dramatically The Bridge connecting the two countries), Carlson answered that it was a political decision that makes no difference epidemiologically. In other words, it was political gesturing. (As a footnote, whereas in the UK it is Downing Street holding daily press conferences, in Sweden it is the Public Health Agency.)

As in many countries, politics in Sweden is usually a tiresome round of point scoring. But not now. Despite the fragility of the present coalition, the other parties are showing a fairy-tale level of unanimity. The opposition could easily win a few points by comparing the number of deaths in Sweden to other Nordic countries – the differences are significant – but they don't.

Kermit.de.frog

If this is success i'd hate to see what failure looks like

zerosugarbuzz

wakka12 wrote: »

And? A fraction of that number of people who are old and with health issues would have died within the last two weeks in a typical year, influenza and pneumonia kills 1000 swedes in an entire year, this has done more than that in 14 days

Though it does have to be said Ireland has lost considerably more citizens in the last 14 days to COVID than would die from influenza in an entire year also despite the lockdown

The people who have died were very old or in poor health or exposed to huge volumes of the virus. No need for the whole economy to be shut down, ridiculous over reaction with huge mental health and financial consequences for the majority who would have gotten over the virus with relative ease by the looks of things.

zerosugarbuzz

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If this is success i'd hate to see what failure looks like

Add in Spain, Italy, USA and China’s real figures and post again