Sweden avoiding lockdown

greyday

https://spookyscotland.net/black-death/

mcsean2163

Boggles wrote: »

To be fair the Swedes have done "remarkably well".

They looked at their social structures and how the population behaves and they thought they could get away with it.

I don't think there is many countries that could have tried what they did and had such an outcome.

But they need to realize there is absolutely no way they can continue you this into winter, the sun rises at 9 and sets at 3.

They need to accept their folly and change tactics or 1000s more will just die needlessly, the mental strain on the elderly there must be off the charts.

Study shows that 65-71 age bracket well being unaffected by covid19.

https://www.barometern.se/ledare/valbefinnande-mitt-i-krisen-b03d7c7f

But don't let facts interfere with your narrative.

mcsean2163

There seems to be an historical ethics debate going on with Charlie 14 hammering home his opinion with a sledgehammer. I think we are all agreed that Sweden did poorly with respect to its neighbours but perhaps we could move on to discussing the death rate and infection rate divergence and the Swedish approach in general.

7 day moving average for death rate is 2.

Is that a seasonal affect, i.e. influenza is seasonal, has the virus become less virulent or something else entirely? Note a similar pattern in the US...

It's really good to see their death rate decline.

Any ideas here?

99nsr125

charlie14 wrote: »

The "current measures" were used for the Black Plague and also successfully for ethe Spanish Flu.
You are a great believer that your immune system will cure all ills on its own without any restrictions or vaccines.
Can you name one pandemic where that has been the case ?

H1N1 you know that thing that's now endemic in everybody that caused the Spanish Flu

But hang on a second that was my question that you couldn't answer so shifted position because well that's what you do when you know you're losing the discussion.

Bit cynical

mcsean2163 wrote: »

7 day moving average for death rate is 2.

Is that a seasonal affect, i.e. influenza is seasonal, has the virus become less virulent or something else entirely? Note a similar pattern in the US...

It's really good to see their death rate decline.

Any ideas here?

Very mixed picture in the US. States that had a severe outbreak, mainly in the North East are not seeing much of an upswing despite lifting some restrictions. Some Southern and Western states are seeing surges despite some having restrictions early on. There are political factors at work in places like Arizona which had been resisting mask wearing but you would have expected the summer to have had more of an effect if it were mainly seasonal. Then again the prevalence of air conditioning might mitigate against this.

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

mcsean2163 wrote: »

There seems to be an historical ethics debate going on with Charlie 14 hammering home his opinion with a sledgehammer. I think we are all agreed that Sweden did poorly with respect to its neighbours but perhaps we could move on to discussing the death rate and infection rate divergence and the Swedish approach in general.

7 day moving average for death rate is 2.

Is that a seasonal affect, i.e. influenza is seasonal, has the virus become less virulent or something else entirely? Note a similar pattern in the US...

It's really good to see their death rate decline.

Any ideas here?

It was always going to die down a bit at some point, but the real test is whether or not they get a second wave.

Aslo, bear in mind that a lot of Swedes were being voluntarily careful, i.e. limiting social interactions, wearing masks and so on - whereas in the US there's a strong element of recklessness.

The US also has a lot more densely-populated city/urban areas than Sweden does, which makes it esaier for a virus to spread.

Boggles

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Study shows that 65-71 age bracket well being unaffected by covid19.

https://www.barometern.se/ledare/valbefinnande-mitt-i-krisen-b03d7c7f

But don't let facts interfere with your narrative.

That being said, the study is not a definitive truth. It was made early in the pandemic and among younger older people, partly among people who would hardly define themselves as older.

Maybe read your own links, good lad. :rolleyes:

Also as ranges of ages go that's pretty hilarious.

bob mcbob

StefanFal wrote: »

Not true. There are some countries open such as Spain, Croatia. I was in Norway last week on a cycling trip. The borders are not policed.

I think this map shows the status of Norway for travellers from Sweden. I did not see any exemptions related to cycling holidays.

https://www.fhi.no/en/op/novel-coronavirus-facts-advice/facts-and-general-advice/travel-advice-COVID19/

the incredible pudding

bob mcbob wrote: »

I think this map shows the status of Norway for travellers from Sweden. I did not see any exemptions related to cycling holidays.

https://www.fhi.no/en/op/novel-coronavirus-facts-advice/facts-and-general-advice/travel-advice-COVID19/

You can see the very south (area called Skåne - pronounced scone-ah) is green - so that's Malmo and Lund and a few other areas. I believe Stefan said earlier he was living around there. I believe there's been a lower transmission rate there than Stockholm and Gothenburg.
Last week Germany also removed its restrictions to travellers from Sweden needing to quarantine as the daily number of cases has dropped somewhat ( a German colleague of mine travelled home).

charlie14

mcsean2163 wrote: »

There seems to be an historical ethics debate going on with Charlie 14 hammering home his opinion with a sledgehammer. I think we are all agreed that Sweden did poorly with respect to its neighbours but perhaps we could move on to discussing the death rate and infection rate divergence and the Swedish approach in general.

7 day moving average for death rate is 2.

Is that a seasonal affect, i.e. influenza is seasonal, has the virus become less virulent or something else entirely? Note a similar pattern in the US...

It's really good to see their death rate decline.

Any ideas here?

Of course it is great to see Sweden`s death rate declining.


Now if posters would just stop attempting to deny the historical medical ethics of the Swedish strategy that lead to the high numbers of deaths I would not feel the need to reply.
Likewise if they stopped posting claims that should there be a second wave Sweden will be much better placed than others, neither would I feel the need to ask what this claim is based on.

I have never been a fan of people attempting to re-write history to further their agenda or make baseless claims for the same purpose.


Hope that clears this up for you.

On my second point of Sweden being much better placed than others if there is a second wave.
From Biko`s post, Tegnell does not appear to believe that Sweden will fare any better than they have for the present one.

biko

FHM now says they have miscalculated the worst case scenario
Instead of another 7000+ deaths on top of the current 5646 deaths until end of the year, they now say worst case is only another 5437.

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/jd60jq/folkhalsomyndighetens-sifferhaveri-fel-dodsprognos

charlie14

99nsr125 wrote: »

H1N1 you know that thing that's now endemic in everybody that caused the Spanish Flu

But hang on a second that was my question that you couldn't answer so shifted position because well that's what you do when you know you're losing the discussion.

What discussion
From what I can make of your posts is that you believe the human immune system can counter any infection on its own and restore you to full health.
Even now after 700 years bubonic plague is fatal in 50% - 70% of untreated cases. 10%-15% if treated.

I`m not shifting any position. My question was can you name any pandemic where the immune system developed immunity where there was no need for a vaccine.
For example, on your hypothesis do you believe that the immune system on it`s own would return you to full health should you be unfortunate to contract Ebola Zaire which has a fatality rate of 83% - 90% ?

greyday

biko wrote: »

FHM now says they have miscalculated the worst case scenario
Instead of another 7000+ deaths on top of the current 5646 deaths until end of the year, they now say worst case is only another 5437.

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/jd60jq/folkhalsomyndighetens-sifferhaveri-fel-dodsprognos

Which basically proves their figures for the last month are very far off what is really happening, if they stayed at the last 7 day average they would have just over 300 deaths before the end of the year, the figure they gave would suggest 36 deaths daily until end of year.

the incredible pudding

greyday wrote: »

Which basically proves their figures for the last month are very far off what is really happening, if they stayed at the last 7 day average they would have just over 300 deaths before the end of the year, the figure they gave would suggest 36 deaths daily until end of year.

No, read the article. That's the worst case, where there would be two further waves to occur and for them to be bad. Case where the current rate continues (with no additional wave) was modelled at 204 additional deaths.

charlie14

Perhaps The Local Se just got it wrong, but from their report it appears that if a second wave hit unevenly this Autumn resulting in a new peak 2021, then an additional 3,200 would die.
If the spread of infection was evenly spread in all 21regions then additional deaths would be 5,880.

Polar101

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/07/21/coronavirus-swedish-herd-immunity-drove-up-death-toll-column/5472100002/?fbclid=IwAR2tRKTaKLD1B_cXS3bAMUHRl3K6FXFwlkRIOL_w3B4e_Rc6wc368ngPD9g

Don't do what we did. It's not working.
At the moment, we have set an example for the rest of the world on how not to deal with a deadly infectious disease.

A bunch of Swedish scientists/doctors telling the US not to follow Sweden's example.

biko

I saw that yeah ^^^

Lots of heavyweights there, Professors of Epidemiology, Virology, Microbial Pathogenesis, Risk Management, Clinical Virology, etc etc

We do believe Sweden can be used as a model, but not in the way it was thought of initially. It can instead serve as a control group and answer the question of how efficient the voluntary distancing and loose measures in Sweden are compared to lockdowns, aggressive testing, tracing and the use of masks.

Like I said a while back

biko wrote: »

I suppose we should thank the Swedish government for volunteering their country to do the polar opposite of everyone else in the world.
Otherwise future historians would have nothing to compare to.

Bit cynical

Sweden Says Covid Immunity Can Last 6 Months After Infection

A recent study from King’s College London showed that the level of antibodies may drop to a degree that makes them undetectable as soon as three months after infection. However, the body also mounts other forms of immunity responses, including from so-called T-cells, which appear to play an important role in protecting against reinfection with Covid-19.

Research from Sweden’s Karolinska Institutet has indicated that about twice as many people infected by Covid-19 have developed a T-cell mediated immunity response as those who have a detectable level of antibodies.

“The risk of being reinfected and of transmitting the disease to other people is probably very close to zero,” Tegnell said. “Therefore, we think that you can meet other people, even if they are in a high-risk group.”

tobefrank321

Bit cynical wrote: »

Sweden Says Covid Immunity Can Last 6 Months After Infection

A recent study from King’s College London showed that the level of antibodies may drop to a degree that makes them undetectable as soon as three months after infection. However, the body also mounts other forms of immunity responses, including from so-called T-cells, which appear to play an important role in protecting against reinfection with Covid-19.

Research from Sweden’s Karolinska Institutet has indicated that about twice as many people infected by Covid-19 have developed a T-cell mediated immunity response as those who have a detectable level of antibodies.

“The risk of being reinfected and of transmitting the disease to other people is probably very close to zero,” Tegnell said. “Therefore, we think that you can meet other people, even if they are in a high-risk group.”

So you can have no detectable antibodies in your body but still be immune.

Calls into question antibody tests as a way to determine who has had it or how many are immune. T Cell tests if such a thing exists might be the better option.

Also it seems obvious at this stage that antibodies are not the only way of protecting people from covid reinfection. 8 million had the infection and are over it but no evidence any one of these has been re-infected. Despite a large number likely now having very low or undetectable levels of antibodies.

Bit cynical

tobefrank321 wrote: »

So you can have no detectable antibodies in your body but still be immune.

Calls into question antibody tests as a way to determine who has had it or how many are immune. T Cell tests if such a thing exists might be the better option.

T-cell immunity could partly explain why Sweden's numbers have been falling since April and other countries such as Ireland are struggling to keep numbers low.

What Username Guidelines

tobefrank321 wrote: »

So you can have no detectable antibodies in your body but still be immune.

Calls into question antibody tests as a way to determine who has had it or how many are immune. T Cell tests if such a thing exists might be the better option.

Also it seems obvious at this stage that antibodies are not the only way of protecting people from covid reinfection. 8 million had the infection and are over it but no evidence any one of these has been re-infected. Despite a large number likely now having very low or undetectable levels of antibodies.

T-cell tests exist and some countries have tested blood of donors to check for it. It’s not a fair representation of society as a whole as blood donors are generally more societally minded and would be considered more likely to adhere to guidance and restrictions, so the numbers may underrepresent larger population groups. They are quite complex tests tho, far more complex than antibody tests.

Poorside

Bit cynical wrote: »

Sweden Says Covid Immunity Can Last 6 Months After Infection

A recent study from King’s College London showed that the level of antibodies may drop to a degree that makes them undetectable as soon as three months after infection. However, the body also mounts other forms of immunity responses, including from so-called T-cells, which appear to play an important role in protecting against reinfection with Covid-19.

Research from Sweden’s Karolinska Institutet has indicated that about twice as many people infected by Covid-19 have developed a T-cell mediated immunity response as those who have a detectable level of antibodies.

“The risk of being reinfected and of transmitting the disease to other people is probably very close to zero,” Tegnell said. “Therefore, we think that you can meet other people, even if they are in a high-risk group.”

So no actual proof, they just ' think' you can meet other people and not pick it up, that's just super.

Boggles

Bit cynical wrote: »

T-cell immunity could partly explain why Sweden's numbers have been falling since April and other countries such as Ireland are struggling to keep numbers low.

WTF?

We average around 20 cases a day, it's 100s in Sweden.

Breezin

Poorside wrote: »

So no actual proof, they just ' think' you can meet other people and not pick it up, that's just super.

We are not in the middle ages. Science most of the time is not about simple certainties. Researchers have identified evidence supporting a particular positive interpretation. If you're not happy with that, then do your own study to show evidence to the contrary.

This is a theme that was aired about a million posts ago on this thread, but for some we are still at the level of discussing bubonic plague.

JimmyVik

Poorside wrote: »

So no actual proof, they just ' think' you can meet other people and not pick it up, that's just super.

SWEDEN, think it. Thats all I need to hear

Bit cynical

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Also it seems obvious at this stage that antibodies are not the only way of protecting people from covid reinfection. 8 million had the infection and are over it but no evidence any one of these has been re-infected. Despite a large number likely now having very low or undetectable levels of antibodies.

It means that the 14% of the overall population that tested positive for antibodies can be translated into about 30% for overall immunity for the country. There has also been research suggesting that the level required for herd immunity may be much lower than previously thought. Although still too early to say for certain, these factors go some way, I think, to explaining Sweden's falling numbers without resorting to believing, as some do, that the numbers are wrong.

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

It means that the 14% of the overall population that tested positive for antibodies can be translated into about 30% for overall immunity for the country. There has also been research suggesting that the level required for herd immunity may be much lower than previously thought. Although still too early to say for certain, these factors go some way, I think, to explaining Sweden's falling numbers without resorting to believing, as some do, that the numbers are wrong.

That 14% you refer to that tested positive for antibodies.


Is that from the results of the 50,000 tests carried out by Werlab AB ?
If it is, it is not for the overall population, just Stockholm.
The overall population figure from those tests was just 6.1% as far as I recall.

Bit cynical

charlie14 wrote: »

That 14% you refer to that tested positive for antibodies.


Is that from the results of the 50,000 tests carried out by Werlab AB ?
If it is, it is not for the overall population, just Stockholm.
The overall population figure from those tests was just 6.1% as far as I recall.

My mistake. You are correct. The 14% was for Sweden with 10% over a number of regions overall in July.

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

My mistake. You are correct. The 14% was for Sweden with 10% over a number of regions overall in July.

I think what you mean is that the 14% was for Stockholm, and for Sweden overall the figure was 6.1% from those 50,000 Werlab AB tests.

charlie14

Breezin wrote: »

We are not in the middle ages. Science most of the time is not about simple certainties. Researchers have identified evidence supporting a particular positive interpretation. If you're not happy with that, then do your own study to show evidence to the contrary.

This is a theme that was aired about a million posts ago on this thread, but for some we are still at the level of discussing bubonic plague.

The level of discussion just seems to be back where we started, but now we appear to have antivaxers joining in.


Back then it was those favouring the strategy arguing that Sweden`s antibody modelling was the answer to gaining herd immunity, and it was imminent. Now with that shown to be a myth, we are on to T-cells with no more proof than there was for antibodies and the herd immunity level being lowered to suit.

T-cells may be the answer to to overcoming this pandemic, and while it is great to see the levels in Sweden dropping, the speculation that this is due to T-cell immunity because of their strategy, for me just does not stack up.
Last week alone, on very patchy reporting, Sweden had 1,740 new confirmed cases and 22 deaths.
Their three neighbours, who used lockdown, with over 1.5 times Sweden`s population, combined had 443 confirmed cases and 3 deaths.

If this exposure to the virus in Sweden has raised immunity due to T-cells, and thus lowering their numbers, then why are the numbers for the other three Nordic countries, who were not as exposed to the same level, substantially lower. ?