Sweden avoiding lockdown

charlie14

99nsr125 wrote: »

Exactly and we lived with smallpox through all of time till that point. Advocating for the exception that is covid is akin to deluding yourself.

We've been here before with the asian and hong kong flu of the 50's and 60's and the upshot was learning to live with them

Actually until a worldwide vaccination campaign many did not live with smallpox. Of those infected 1 in every 3`s immune system didn`t learn how to live with it and they died. In the 20th century alone 300 million didn`t learn to live with it.


I can give you a long list of other infections that have been around, some of them for long periods, that we didn`t learn to live with too well either until a vaccine greatly improved the odds of survival if you wish ?

cnocbui

charlie14 wrote: »

Why in the world would you think I would be "all over" the ramblings of Anders Tegnell?
To be perfectly honest, with the easing of restrictions, I have better things to do with my time than go chasing after you down rabbit holes discussing Anders Tegnell`s latest attempts at ass covering now that there is an inquiry into the handling of the pandemic in Sweden.

For me his credibility fell apart when the first antibody tests showed how far off his predictions were with him still claiming he was correct.
The second large scale test results, (again showing just how wrong he was), seems to have brought on short term memory loss if he is back to his former position on lockdown.
His theory on schools also appears to be leaking water with Leicester going back into lockdown and Public Health England`s week 26 report.

The daily new cases and daily death rate for Sweden shows clearly that the antibody test you so love to quote is functionally meaningless. Predictably, as time goes on, Sweden is looking more vindicated with each passing day, particularly in light of 40 nations reporting record single day increases in infections.

Boggles

cnocbui wrote: »

The daily new cases and daily death rate for Sweden shows clearly that the antibody test you so love to quote is functionally meaningless. Predictably, as time goes on, Sweden is looking more vindicated with each passing day, particularly in light of 40 nations reporting record single day increases in infections.

Are you suggesting if those 40 nations went the same route as Sweden they wouldn't be seeing increases?

If so what data are you modelling that on?

cnocbui

Boggles wrote: »

Are you suggesting if those 40 nations went the same route as Sweden they wouldn't be seeing increases?

If so what data are you modelling that on?

No, I'm suggesting that barring isolation of the vulnerable, or a 'safe' for the vulnerable vaccine, that those who are susceptible will die, one time or another. Elimination of the virus is a nonsense, hence the second waves.

Boggles

cnocbui wrote: »

No, I'm suggesting that barring isolation of the vulnerable, or a 'safe' for the vulnerable vaccine, that those who are susceptible will die, one time or another. Elimination of the virus is a nonsense, hence the second waves.

Huh?

New Zealand, 22 deaths no second wave.

Discuss?

cnocbui

Boggles wrote: »

Huh?

New Zealand, 22 deaths no second wave.

Discuss?

The exception that proves the rule. New Zealand is the ultimate zombie apocalypse hideout. Australia were within a hairs breadth of supposed eradication and Joining NZ on the worlds shortest list. Now look at it.

bb1234567

Boggles wrote: »

Huh?

New Zealand, 22 deaths no second wave.

Discuss?

Well to be fair, long time to go yet before they can safely claim that number of deaths will stay at 22. Australian government and citizens seemed confident to say the situation is under control and now they have reported 44 new deaths over the last few weeks in their 'second wave', not a lot of deaths but it's a big increase for them, 50% in fact. So, things can change pretty dramatically very quickly.

Obviously you can keep deaths to a pretty minor level, as most of Europe is now doing . But it's never going to be zero, think we have to remain cognissant of that. This is now just another cause of death among the many, and it's pretty irrational the obsessive determination that has taken hold to limit deaths from COVID to zero, while people suffering many other illnesses which cause far more deaths are left to fall by the wayside. Both of my grandads are now terminal with cancer due to delayed treatments, they probably would have died soon anyway of something else pretty soon, both over 85, but I think it is just another symptoms of this completely unjustifiable reckless mission to eradicate a virus that will never go a way, and doing it at an incredible cost to quality of life of everyone and in so many ways. Other people matter too apart from COVID victims, I think people seriously need to be reminded of that and I'm not being smart.
There are other problems, other people are dying, other people that still need the care and attention that their serious illnesses required before they were completely neglected in favour of COVID victims, who are still being neglected in Ireland despite COVID not even being present in the community. One of my grandads is still alone in hospital for days now, receiving terminal diagnosis with nobody there to comfort him because of covid regulations, it's horrifically sad and senseless.

Boggles

cnocbui wrote: »

The exception that proves the rule. New Zealand is the ultimate zombie apocalypse hideout.

Hyperbole aside, New Zealand certainly had some advantages as does Sweden.

But that's not what you claimed is it?

Boggles

bb1234567 wrote: »

Well to be fair, long time to go yet before they can safely claim that number of deaths will stay at 22. .

No one was claiming that.

Onesea

Boggles wrote: »

Hyperbole aside, New Zealand certainly had some advantages as does Sweden.

But that's not what you claimed is it?

Tegnel stated as soon as countries opened their boarders to normal travel they will experience an unavoidable increase in cases. Lock up yer vulnerable. The data is in plain sight.

charlie14

cnocbui wrote: »

The daily new cases and daily death rate for Sweden shows clearly that the antibody test you so love to quote is functionally meaningless. Predictably, as time goes on, Sweden is looking more vindicated with each passing day, particularly in light of 40 nations reporting record single day increases in infections.

Were you not one of the posters here who had so much faith in Tegnell`s antibody figures as justification for the Swedish strategy ?
I always thought it a baseless and reckless experiment with lives.
I do not see why you feel this continuous need to run around the globe looking for countries to justify it, when all you need to do to see how ill judged it was is look at those bordering Sweden.
I cannot see where you believe this vindication is coming from either.
Sweden`s own predictions are that if there is a second wave their deaths will be greater than the number of deaths presently.

charlie14

Onesea wrote: »

Tegnel stated as soon as countries opened their boarders to normal travel they will experience an unavoidable increase in cases. Lock up yer vulnerable. The data is in plain sight.

His own health agency is saying no better for Sweden. In the event of a second wave they are prediction larger deaths than they have at present.

JimmyVik

charlie14 wrote: »

His own health agency is saying no better for Sweden. In the event of a second wave they are prediction larger deaths than they have at present.

As they say at the tables. Tegnell and Sweden are "all-in" now.

CalamariFritti

Thats pretty much where we are, too. We overreacted so strongly and we caused so much damage to societies and economies and we are all caught up in this so much we are the most all-in people I ever saw. It is currently impossible to even slightly question the current narrative never mind admitting we overreacted and continue to do so.

I know most of you fully buy into the current narrative. Zero-risk, everything has to be done, COVID is the worst thing ever. Granny killer. Second wave. Everyone who thinks otherwise is either a selfish arsehole or an idiot.

I will not even try to deter or convince you of anything lese, just entertain this thought for one minute. Lets just assume we did overreact. Do you believe for a moment that we'd find the courage to admit it? Or would we simply plough on and keep the story going?

cnocbui

cnocbui wrote: »

The exception that proves the rule. New Zealand is the ultimate zombie apocalypse hideout. Australia were within a hairs breadth of supposed eradication and Joining NZ on the worlds shortest list. Now look at it.

Norway, shares a 1,630km border with Sweden. Where's the second wave in Norway? or Denmark? or Finland? Finland shares a 555km border with Sweden and a 1,340km border with Russia (you know, the country with the fourth worst outbreak in the world?)


Why are you still pretending that those 3 neighbours of Sweden don't exist when irrationally defending Sweden?


13th-19th of July:

Norway performed 23,997 PCR tests and a positivity ratio of 0.225%

Sweden performed 69,393 PCR tests and a positivity ratio of 3.7%

Norway fully re-opened (aside from international travel months ago).



I've asked several times and you've never answered, why do you hate evidence & facts so much?

Sconsey

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Thats pretty much where we are, too. We overreacted so strongly and we caused so much damage to societies and economies and we are all caught up in this so much we are the most all-in people I ever saw. It is currently impossible to even slightly question the current narrative never mind admitting we overreacted and continue to do so.

I know most of you fully buy into the current narrative. Zero-risk, everything has to be done, COVID is the worst thing ever. Granny killer. Second wave. Everyone who thinks otherwise is either a selfish arsehole or an idiot.

I will not even try to deter or convince you of anything lese, just entertain this thought for one minute. Lets just assume we did overreact. Do you believe for a moment that we'd find the courage to admit it? Or would we simply plough on and keep the story going?

I'd be interested to know who you are referring to when you say 'we'? If 'we' is Ireland then we have by no means been the most 'all-in' on lockdown. Pleny of other couunties have had harsher lockdowns than Ireland. Is 'we' western Europe in general (excluding Sweden)? We over-reacted more than some, but under-reacted compared to others.

What was the right decision? Personally I think we got it about right based on the current figures, but it will probably be 5 or 10 years time before we really know who got it 'most right'.

CalamariFritti

I would probably agree with you. Given what was known at the time we reacted cautiously but more or less appropriately. Sweden was a bit of a dare. Not for the decision itself but because it was going not quite with the herd. Always dangerous that. There would not have been any appetite for that here.

My previous 'we' was Europe other than Sweden btw.

The way I see it Swedens dare worked out ok for them. Their numbers are reasonable but they will experience less of a COVID trauma than other countries. Thats where I fear for us (Ireland) a bit. I fear we will have to get dragged kicking and screaming back to normality. I fear schools will be open for one day then someone sneezes. We did well with the numbers but the nations psyche is not in a good spot right now.

FintanMcluskey

[QUOTE=CalamariFritti;114148411We did well with the numbers but the nations psyche is not in a good spot right now.[/QUOTE]

Its not, and thats going to be a bigger problem than Covid

charlie14

CalamariFritti wrote: »

I would probably agree with you. Given what was known at the time we reacted cautiously but more or less appropriately. Sweden was a bit of a dare. Not for the decision itself but because it was going not quite with the herd. Always dangerous that. There would not have been any appetite for that here.

My previous 'we' was Europe other than Sweden btw.

The way I see it Swedens dare worked out ok for them. Their numbers are reasonable but they will experience less of a COVID trauma than other countries. Thats where I fear for us (Ireland) a bit. I fear we will have to get dragged kicking and screaming back to normality. I fear schools will be open for one day then someone sneezes. We did well with the numbers but the nations psyche is not in a good spot right now.

I wouldn`t say it worked our ok for Sweden. They didn`t get what they were aiming for, and if there is a second wave their strategy has left them in the same position as everyone else, but with a higher death rate than most.
Had we gone the same way and it resulted in our health service being over-run with many more deaths, I cannot see how the nations psyche would be better than it is now.

SeaBreezes

https://twitter.com/JoannaTeglund/status/1286030578563911682

tobefrank321

SeaBreezes wrote: »

https://twitter.com/JoannaTeglund/status/1286030578563911682

Total nonsense.

There's been about 80,000 confirmed cases in Sweden and 5,700 deaths. Deaths are rising far slower than new cases. It will never be anything near 40%. Its unlikely ever to go above 8%.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

I wouldn`t say it worked our ok for Sweden. They didn`t get what they were aiming for, and if there is a second wave their strategy has left them in the same position as everyone else, but with a higher death rate than most.
Had we gone the same way and it resulted in our health service being over-run with many more deaths, I cannot see how the nations psyche would be better than it is now.

There won't be waves in Sweden. Waves happen in countries who impose and lift lockdowns where you get peaks and troughs.

Who knows if Sweden will achieve herd immunity in the longrun but what is certain is antibody testing is losing credibiliy as a metric of who was infected or is immune. A lot of experts are calling them into question.

Some people may have no covid 19 antibodies and yet be immune via other means.

AlmightyCushion

It's possible the figure is technically true in the sense that if you take the figure for confirmed recoveries and confirmed deaths, the deaths would be 40% of that total figure. However, that would be because Sweden just haven't updated their recovered figures.

tobefrank321

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

It's possible the figure is technically true in the sense that if you take the figure for confirmed recoveries and confirmed deaths, the deaths would be 40% of that total figure. However, that would be because Sweden just haven't updated their recovered figures.

Yes that's the most likely reason. Absolutely no way it will ever approach 40%. She's shot herself in the foot with that nonsense.

AlmightyCushion

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Yes that's the most likely reason. Absolutely no way it will ever approach 40%. She's shot herself in the foot with that nonsense.

Yeah, her argument about them handling it poorly may be valid but she's using bad data to try and prove it.

SeaBreezes

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Total nonsense.

There's been about 80,000 confirmed cases in Sweden and 5,700 deaths. Deaths are rising far slower than new cases. It will never be anything near 40%. Its unlikely ever to go above 8%.

Shes giving the stats at the time of posting.
While i agree these stats will come down, no other country reached this crazy high ratio before coming down.

SeaBreezes

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

Yeah, her argument about them handling it poorly may be valid but she's using bad data to try and prove it.

Shes using the swedish govs own data at the time.
.

AlmightyCushion

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Shes using the swedish govs own data at the time.
.

True but that data is obviously inaccurate so it can't be used to prove anything.

SeaBreezes

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

True but that data is obviously inaccurate so it can't be used to prove anything.

Yes, odd isnt it sweden not updating its stats.
Hard to.see the actual.numbers in worldometer.

Funny, that. Wonder why.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

There won't be waves in Sweden. Waves happen in countries who impose and lift lockdowns where you get peaks and troughs.

Who knows if Sweden will achieve herd immunity in the longrun but what is certain is antibody testing is losing credibiliy as a metric of who was infected or is immune. A lot of experts are calling them into question.

Some people may have no covid 19 antibodies and yet be immune via other means.

The virus is still active there so why would Sweden be any different with peaks and troughs to any other country?
Their own authorities are warning of a second wave,and their public health agency are forecasting even more deaths from a second wave than they have at present.


All we have to go on as regards immunity are the various test results. From those Spain and France would have as much chance of herd immunity as Sweden.