Sweden avoiding lockdown

AlmightyCushion

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Yes, odd isnt it sweden not updating its stats.
Hard to.see the actual.numbers in worldometer.

Funny, that. Wonder why.

This is data for recoveries, and it is at least 10,000s less than it should be. It's not exactly a figure that a country would be deliberately trying to hide. If you were arguing they were deliberately reporting case numbers, deaths or hospitalisations that would make sense as hiding those figures to keep their numbers low would make it appear their strategy was working.

We only started reporting recoveries when we already had hundreds of deaths. Up until that point 100% of our closed cases resulted in death. 100%!?!?!? Would that figure be a valid argument for us handling it poorly. Of course it wouldn't as that figure was obviously not accurate.

Using this figure to show how badly Sweden handled this is stupid as the figure is obviously based on inaccurate data. It is actually hurts the argument to use it as it is so easily dismissed as being wrong. I'm firmly in the camp that Sweden handled this poorly by not locking down earlier and even I rolled my eyes when I seen that figure because it is stupid.

SeaBreezes

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

This is data for recoveries, and it is at least 10,000s less than it should be. It's not exactly a figure that a country would be deliberately trying to hide. If you were arguing they were deliberately reporting case numbers, deaths or hospitalisations that would make sense as hiding those figures to keep their numbers low would make it appear their strategy was working.

We only started reporting recoveries when we already had hundreds of deaths. Up until that point 100% of our closed cases resulted in death. 100%!?!?!? Would that figure be a valid argument for us handling it poorly. Of course it wouldn't as that figure was obviously not accurate.

Using this figure to show how badly Sweden handled this is stupid as the figure is obviously based on inaccurate data. It is actually hurts the argument to use it as it is so easily dismissed as being wrong. I'm firmly in the camp that Sweden handled this poorly by not locking down earlier and even I rolled my eyes when I seen that figure because it is stupid.

I wonder if they are deliberately not listing recoveries as soo much is unknown? In the following study 2/3 of those tested.were mild cases and they excluded anyone with pre existing heart issues.

Not good news for the herd ..

https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1287994291902545920

Bit cynical

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

If you were arguing they were deliberately reporting case numbers, deaths or hospitalisations that would make sense as hiding those figures to keep their numbers low would make it appear their strategy was working.

Though, of course, evidence would still need to be provided for that.

tobefrank321

Well it looks like strict 3 month lockdowns in most European countries have done nothing to prevent a second wave. What now? Another economy destroying lockdown?

This virus seems to depend on tourism in large part. And many economies also depend significantly on tourism.

cnocbui

Deleted User wrote: »

Norway, shares a 1,630km border with Sweden. Where's the second wave in Norway? or Denmark? or Finland? Finland shares a 555km border with Sweden and a 1,340km border with Russia (you know, the country with the fourth worst outbreak in the world?)


Why are you still pretending that those 3 neighbours of Sweden don't exist when irrationally defending Sweden?


13th-19th of July:

Norway performed 23,997 PCR tests and a positivity ratio of 0.225%

Sweden performed 69,393 PCR tests and a positivity ratio of 3.7%

Norway fully re-opened (aside from international travel months ago).



I've asked several times and you've never answered, why do you hate evidence & facts so much?

I have you on ignore, so don't bother addressing me or expecting answers..

cnocbui

Sweden's household lending growth is up 5.1.%

Their balance of trade for June was SEK4.9B - 53% higher than expected
Retail sales are up 1%, month on month. -1% was forecast.
Reatail sales YOY are up 3.5% - 0.2% was expected.

So much for the imploding Swedish economy the critics on here were hoping for.

Bit cynical

charlie14 wrote: »

The virus is still active there so why would Sweden be any different with peaks and troughs to any other country?
Their own authorities are warning of a second wave,and their public health agency are forecasting even more deaths from a second wave than they have at present.

All we have to go on as regards immunity are the various test results. From those Spain and France would have as much chance of herd immunity as Sweden.

I haven't looked at the figures much for Spain and France but Sweden appears to have had very high infection rates at their peak; much higher than indicated by their test results. This is suggested by their high ICU occupancy at that time.

As we know, Sweden conducted tests at a comparatively low rate during the early stages of the outbreak which would have hidden a high rate of actual infections. When they did expand their testing, the numbers rose substantially and are falling rapidly now.

Therefore, we can expect a large proportion in Sweden to have had some exposure to the virus during the peak period. Although herd immunity was never the primary strategy in Sweden, nevertheless, if it is the case that there is at least some immunity conferred by the virus, then their high infection rate, combined with this immunity, should moderate the magnitude of a second wave.

biko

79494 official cases
5702 officially dead
7.2% of known cases have passed

Numbers from FHMs own tracking page
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

biko

Sweden has for the longest time decided to not endorse face masks, I think because it doesn't necessarily protect the person wearing it.
Asians have known this for decades but it seems Europeans are slow on the uptake.
https://www.thelocal.se/20200724/swedish-word-of-the-day-munskydd

In the last few days celebs are trying to make it become a trend to get the teens in on it.
https://veckorevyn.com/halsa/munskydd-fran-skydd-till-trendig-accessoar/

greyday

Masks don't offer full protection but they give more protection then nothing at all.

Bit cynical

I don't think Sweden will be advocating masks any time soon but I think they are helping in places like Ireland with little immunity that saw increases in cases when some of the restrictions were lifted.

tobefrank321

greyday wrote: »

Masks don't offer full protection but they give more protection then nothing at all.

Agreed. And the recent spikes in Spain were I think related to pubs and nightclubs where mask wearing is not the norm if at all.

biko

At least Sweden isn't on the 100K table now

Greyian

biko wrote: »

At least Sweden isn't on the 100K table now

That graph is completely pointless, there are numerous countries that should appear on it, that aren't there.

With a death rate of 357 per million, we should appear on it with 35.7 deaths per 100,000 population.
Where are Belgium (84.7), Italy (58.1), Spain (60.8), France (46.3), Ecuador (31.3, with seemingly massive undercounting)?
Sweden should be on it at 56.4 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants.

All data I've referenced there is up to yesterday/today as per Worldometers, so a bit more up-to-date than that graph, but all would have still exceeded the likes of Colombia back on the 19th of July.

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

I haven't looked at the figures much for Spain and France but Sweden appears to have had very high infection rates at their peak; much higher than indicated by their test results. This is suggested by their high ICU occupancy at that time.


As we know, Sweden conducted tests at a comparatively low rate during the early stages of the outbreak which would have hidden a high rate of actual infections. When they did expand their testing, the numbers rose substantially and are falling rapidly now.

Therefore, we can expect a large proportion in Sweden to have had some exposure to the virus during the peak period. Although herd immunity was never the primary strategy in Sweden, nevertheless, if it is the case that there is at least some immunity conferred by the virus, then their high infection rate, combined with this immunity, should moderate the magnitude of a second wave.

Your immunity theory I`m afraid flies in the face of your own recent post that stated "Though, of course, evidence would still need to be provided for that"

The speculation on herd immunity has dropped off from Sweden, but as far as I`m concerned it is not because that was not their aim. It`s because their test results showed it wasn`t possible.

Spain`s infections at 325,000 are population wise very similar to Sweden`s 79,000 and their antibody tests nationally and for their epicenter are similar to Sweden, but they are not making claims on immunity.
Sweden`s 50,000 test results covered 6 weeks up to the beginning of June. Sweden claims their peak was mid April, yet those tests only show 6.1% tests nationally were positive for antibodies. No better than Spain or many others

Sweden and posters here cannot have it both ways with any credibility. Originally claiming antibodies were the big advantage that Sweden would have over everyone else, and when that hasn`t panned out, now claim this immunity is coming from some other unknown source.
A source that even Sweden`s own public health agency has not much faith in where they are predicting even greater deaths should there be a second wave.

charlie14

biko wrote: »

At least Sweden isn't on the 100K table now

If Sweden were they would be in 2nd place behind the U.K. and above Chile.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

If Sweden were they would be in 2nd place behind the U.K. and above Chile.

Where would Belgium or Spain be?

Bit cynical

charlie14 wrote: »

Sweden and posters here cannot have it both ways with any credibility. Originally claiming antibodies were the big advantage that Sweden would have over everyone else, and when that hasn`t panned out, now claim this immunity is coming from some other unknown source.

However does it matter where the immunity comes from, assuming of course, that there is some degree of immunity?

biko

Moar stats

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
COUNTRY|CONFIRMED|DEATHS|CASE-FATALITY|DEATHS/100K POP.|
San Marino| 699 |42| 6.0%| 124.32|
Belgium| 66,428 |9,822 |14.8% |85.99|
United Kingdom| 301,708| 45,844| 15.2% |68.95|
Andorra |907 |52| 5.7% |67.53|
Spain| 272,421 |28,432| 10.4%| 60.85|
Italy |246,286| 35,112 |14.3%| 58.10|
Peru| 389,717| 18,418 |4.7%| 57.58|
Sweden| 79,395 |5,700 |7.2% |55.97

greyday

Starting out Sweden banked on immunity from antibodies, if by luck immunity is gained some other way, it certainly will not be to Sweden's credit as their mechanism of immunity has not transpired.

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

However does it matter where the immunity comes from, assuming of course, that there is some degree of immunity?

If we are now going on the basis of assumptions.
Although none are claiming so, then we can equally assume that countries that used lockdown, and have test results as good or better than Sweden, have the same degree of immunity.

In which case Sweden has gained nothing as regards immunity from their strategy and if there is a second wave will be no better placed than anyone else.
Something that Sweden`s own public health agency appears now to accept with their projections that deaths from a second wave will be on a par with the present.

Ozark707

charlie14 wrote: »

Something that Sweden`s own public health agency appears now to accept with their projections that deaths from a second wave will be on a par with the present.

I thought they had outlined 3 scenarios? Do you know which of the 3 you are referring to?

Bit cynical

charlie14 wrote: »

If we are now going on the basis of assumptions.
Although none are claiming so, then we can equally assume that countries that used lockdown, and have test results as good or better than Sweden, have the same degree of immunity.

I don't think there's a standardized test for immunity yet so we can't say. However, if contracting the virus does indeed confer immunity, then countries like Sweden are probably in a better position to open up schools after the summer than countries that avoided infections through lockdown. Sweden might be in a better position than countries like Italy which had a higher death rate than Sweden, as the high death rate in Italy may be due to their health service being overwhelmed in northern parts, rather than a generally high rate of infection throughout the country.

tobefrank321

Bit cynical wrote: »

I don't think there's a standardized test for immunity yet so we can't say. However, if contracting the virus does indeed confer immunity, then countries like Sweden are probably in a better position to open up schools after the summer than countries that avoided infections through lockdown. Sweden might be in a better position than countries like Italy which had a higher death rate than Sweden, as the high death rate in Italy may be due to their health service being overwhelmed in northern parts, rather than a generally high rate of infection throughout the country.

Its very likely large numbers of Swedish children have already had the virus and didn't know it or have immunity due to other virus infections or else just can't be infected (fewer ACE receptors) Either way as you say Swedish schools should be in a good position going forward. The danger will probably be mixing of adults at school gates or in canteens but then again most teachers in places like Stockholm probably have had it or are benefitting from the herd immunity of their students.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

If we are now going on the basis of assumptions.
Although none are claiming so, then we can equally assume that countries that used lockdown, and have test results as good or better than Sweden, have the same degree of immunity.

In which case Sweden has gained nothing as regards immunity from their strategy and if there is a second wave will be no better placed than anyone else.
Something that Sweden`s own public health agency appears now to accept with their projections that deaths from a second wave will be on a par with the present.

Their deaths are significantly down. Their schools and most if not all workplaces remained open. They frontloaded most of their deaths for want of another description. They won't be shutting down for a second, third or fourth wave. And its likely the superspreaders and those working on the medical frontline are now immune.

Sounds like they gained a fair bit.

Personally I think this thing is going to rumble on another 2 years until vaccine herd immunity is completed. A lot of people are going to die in those 2 years in other countries.

charlie14

Ozark707 wrote: »

I thought they had outlined 3 scenarios? Do you know which of the 3 you are referring to?

A second wave hitting the country resulting in, by their own estimates a further 5,800 deaths.

cnocbui

cnocbui wrote: »

I have you on ignore, so don't bother addressing me or expecting answers..

You've been ignoring any of the facts or evidence anyone in this thread has provided when replying to you for the last 2 months anyway, without ever providing any of your own. You might as well put everyone on ignore list with your Trumpian posting style.



🤦*♂️

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

I don't think there's a standardized test for immunity yet so we can't say. However, if contracting the virus does indeed confer immunity, then countries like Sweden are probably in a better position to open up schools after the summer than countries that avoided infections through lockdown. Sweden might be in a better position than countries like Italy which had a higher death rate than Sweden, as the high death rate in Italy may be due to their health service being overwhelmed in northern parts, rather than a generally high rate of infection throughout the country.

What we can say is the strategy Sweden followed was based on antibodies.
That is what all their modelling figures were based on.
Their own antibody tests show they were incorrect by a large degree.

Regardless of how accurate or inaccurate those results are. they show the same nationally for Spain, France and others. Better for some epicenters.
There is nothing to support this speculation that Sweden will be any better off immunity wise than anybody else.
Even their own health authority, who lets face it, have not been behind the door when it came to speculation, are not even suggesting it.
They are now predicting an even greater number of deaths than presently should there be a second wave.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Their deaths are significantly down. Their schools and most if not all workplaces remained open. They frontloaded most of their deaths for want of another description. They won't be shutting down for a second, third or fourth wave. And its likely the superspreaders and those working on the medical frontline are now immune.

Sounds like they gained a fair bit.

Personally I think this thing is going to rumble on another 2 years until vaccine herd immunity is completed. A lot of people are going to die in those 2 years in other countries.

Their deaths are on a par with Italy whose health service was overrun and their deaths and infections are still running higher than the other Nordic states,
From their own projections of deaths from a second wave, it does not appear they have as much faith in this front-loading as you do.


Doesn`t sound as if they have gained anything.

ceadaoin.

charlie14 wrote: »

Their deaths are on a par with Italy whose health service was overrun and their deaths and infections are still running higher than the other Nordic states,
From their own projections of deaths from a second wave, it does not appear they have as much faith in this front-loading as you do.


Doesn`t sound as if they have gained anything.

Well their cases and deaths are dropping significantly every week, while most of the rest of Europe is seeing increases on reopening and facing the "2nd wave". I'd wager that Sweden will be over and done with this thing much sooner than those places who tried and failed to avoid it, much like how the NE states of the US and the hard hit areas of Spain and Italy are now.