Sweden avoiding lockdown

tobefrank321

Whether Sweden got it right or not all depends when mass vaccination is completed. If everyone could be vaccinated next week and this thing was over, Sweden would have got it badly wrong. But if there is still no mass vaccination this time next year and Sweden maintain their current trend of declining deaths, they will likely have got it right. Other countries will be continually fighting outbreaks. It seems inevitable that deaths will start to rise in other countries in the coming weeks.

Ireland for example based on current trends will have a choice to make in about a month - another mass lockdown or follow the Swedish model of leaving everything open.

charlie14

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Well their cases and deaths are dropping significantly every week, while most of the rest of Europe is seeing increases on reopening and facing the "2nd wave". I'd wager that Sweden will be over and done with this thing much sooner than those places who tried and failed to avoid it, much like how the NE states of the US and the hard hit areas of Spain and Italy are now.

Swedish new cases and deaths are still higher than the other Nordic countries and their death rate significantly higher than all of them combined. There is nothing to indicate they would fare any better than anyone else if there is a second wave. Even their own authorities do not believe they would.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Whether Sweden got it right or not all depends when mass vaccination is completed. If everyone could be vaccinated next week and this thing was over, Sweden would have got it badly wrong. But if there is still no mass vaccination this time next year and Sweden maintain their current trend of declining deaths, they will likely have got it right. Other countries will be continually fighting outbreaks. It seems inevitable that deaths will start to rise in other countries in the coming weeks.

Ireland for example based on current trends will have a choice to make in about a month - another mass lockdown or follow the Swedish model of leaving everything open.

I don`t see why you believe Ireland will be any different to Sweden in a months time. On deaths we are still doing as well if not better than they are, and in new cases significantly better.
Even without a second wave, unless you are claiming herd immunity at present in Sweden, then they will continue to have outbreaks. Same as everywhere else.

Somewhat disingenuous to continue making assumptions on Sweden and then state as fact the opposite for Ireland when there is nothing to indicate either imo.

Bit cynical

charlie14 wrote: »

I don`t see why you believe Ireland will be any different to Sweden in a months time. On deaths we are still doing as well if not better than they are, and in new cases significantly better.

However, it is not really the current daily levels that are the issue but the rate of change in them that is relevant. For example, Ireland had very low daily new cases a couple of weeks ago but, because they had been rising, the reopening of pubs, set for the 20th July, had to be pushed back to 10th August. Since the introduction of mandatory masks, there has, thankfully, been a levelling off in the last couple of weeks but this may not be sufficient to allow for further reopening of other areas.

It is good that here in Ireland we have very low levels of the disease and deaths on a daily basis, but a lot of restrictions have to be kept in place to keep it that way, because an R number above unity over an extended period of time will cause cases to build up.

There's also a political aspect to it. We don't want to appear on the EU's list of naughty countries with rising cases.

Sweden does currently have higher daily cases and deaths than Ireland but the numbers are now much lower than their peak and, more importantly, they have been falling for the last several months. All they really have to do is continue on the current course and numbers will fall further. They don't need to juggle mask wearing and bar openings to keep numbers low. They will probably be able to open schools after summer because numbers had been falling while schools were already open having never closed most of them in the first place.

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

However, it is not really the current daily levels that are the issue but the rate of change in them that is relevant. For example, Ireland had very low daily new cases a couple of weeks ago but because they had been rising, the reopening of pubs, set for the 20th July had to be pushed back to 10th August. Since the introduction of mandatory masks there has been a levelling off in the last couple of weeks but this may not be sufficient to allow for further reopening of other areas.

It is good that here in Ireland we have very low levels of the disease and deaths on a daily basis but a lot of restrictions have to be kept in place to keep it that way because an R number above unity over an extended period of time will cause cases to build up.

There's also a political aspect to it. We don't want to appear on the EU's list of naughty countries with rising cases.

Sweden does currently have higher daily cases and deaths than Ireland but the numbers are now much lower than their peak and, more importantly, they have been falling for the last several months. All they really have to do is continue on the current course and numbers will fall further. They don't need to juggle mask wearing and bar openings to keep numbers low. They will probably be able to open schools after summer because numbers had been falling while schools were already open having never closed most of them in the first place.

Other than pubs not being open we actually have no more restrictions than Sweden.
Their position on mask wearing just seems nothing other than cussedness on their part tbh.


Interesting on their schools and numbers dropping. One of their theories behind their strategy was that children of primary school age were not susceptible or transmitters of the virus, so they left those schools open.
Not saying it`s the reason for infections dropping in Sweden, but could it be possible that with those school closed the rates fell.
Recent lockdown reimposed in Leicester appears to have had at least something to do with schools where 11 of the 13 that had infections were primary school, and Public Health England in their week 26 report noted large increases in school from their opening just a few weeks previous.

ceadaoin.

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Whether Sweden got it right or not all depends when mass vaccination is completed. If everyone could be vaccinated next week and this thing was over, Sweden would have got it badly wrong. But if there is still no mass vaccination this time next year and Sweden maintain their current trend of declining deaths, they will likely have got it right. Other countries will be continually fighting outbreaks. It seems inevitable that deaths will start to rise in other countries in the coming weeks.

Ireland for example based on current trends will have a choice to make in about a month - another mass lockdown or follow the Swedish model of leaving everything open.

Yes. If a vaccine really does become available this year then they didnt need to let the virus run through the population. but if it doesn't then they are in a good position. They have already experienced their peak, while the countries who suppressed it will still have to go through it because locking down again really isn't an option.

Ozark707

charlie14 wrote: »

A second wave hitting the country resulting in, by their own estimates a further 5,800 deaths.

I found this. You are citing the worst case scenario of the 3 that they came up with.


https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-covid-deaths-sweden-health-agency.html

Donald Trump

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Well their cases and deaths are dropping significantly every week, while most of the rest of Europe is seeing increases on reopening and facing the "2nd wave". I'd wager that Sweden will be over and done with this thing much sooner than those places who tried and failed to avoid it, much like how the NE states of the US and the hard hit areas of Spain and Italy are now.

Well it would definitely be over in Sweden soon if they all catch it and die from it.

greyday

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Well their cases and deaths are dropping significantly every week, while most of the rest of Europe is seeing increases on reopening and facing the "2nd wave". I'd wager that Sweden will be over and done with this thing much sooner than those places who tried and failed to avoid it, much like how the NE states of the US and the hard hit areas of Spain and Italy are now.

Why is that happening?

charlie14

Ozark707 wrote: »

I found this. You are citing the worst case scenario of the 3 that they came up with.


https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-covid-deaths-sweden-health-agency.html

Why do you have a problem with that
From the article you posted the worst case scenario is where Covid-19 is expected "to follow a traditional pandemic trajectory" where over 5,800 more deaths could follow.
Do you believe this pandemic has not been following a traditional trajectory ?

charlie14

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Yes. If a vaccine really does become available this year then they didnt need to let the virus run through the population. but if it doesn't then they are in a good position. They have already experienced their peak, while the countries who suppressed it will still have to go through it because locking down again really isn't an option.

There is nothing to suggest the majority of European countries did not have their peak around the same time as Sweden.The only difference is that the majority of those reduced their numbers faster, and thus having few deaths than Sweden, by using lockdown.
The big question will be is if there is a second wave, will Sweden go with the same strategy where their own projections are for a further 5,800 deaths

Ozark707

charlie14 wrote: »

Why do you have a problem with that
From the article you posted the worst case scenario is where Covid-19 is expected "to follow a traditional pandemic trajectory" where over 5,800 more deaths could follow.
Do you believe this pandemic has not been following a traditional trajectory ?

I have no problem with it, it was just I had heard initially about the separate projections and I didn't know which one you were referring to. I was only looking for clarification.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

There is nothing to suggest the majority of European countries did not have their peak around the same time as Sweden.The only difference is that the majority of those reduced their numbers faster, and thus having few deaths than Sweden, by using lockdown.
The big question will be is if there is a second wave, will Sweden go with the same strategy where their own projections are for a further 5,800 deaths

The Swedes at least have been transparent about a worst case scenario. No other country seems to have produced a worst case scenario for a second wave, unless you can find it for me?

The point of outlining a worst case scenario is to implement measures and advice to ensure it doesn't happen.

Its a myth as you well know that the Swedes have no restrictions, although generally they rely on advice and guidance than strict rules.

Here is that advice:

https://www.thelocal.se/20200228/coronavirus-the-everyday-precautions-to-take-if-youre-in-sweden

There was talk about lockdown fatigue in some countries and when best to implement a lockdown. It may have played a part in delays in the UK and possibly Ireland to a lesser extent. However we definitely saw at the end of lockdowns in Ireland, UK and US and other countries significant fatigue and a desire to get back to normality. There were protests in countries like France against it as well as the US. You only have to look back on this forum at the fatigue towards the end and the unwillingness ever to go into lockdown again.

Its always better to get people's buy in and co-operation than force them to do something as they will rebel against the latter.

Bit cynical

tobefrank321 wrote: »

There was talk about lockdown fatigue in some countries and when best to implement a lockdown. It may have played a part in delays in the UK and possibly Ireland to a lesser extent. However we definitely saw at the end of lockdowns in Ireland, UK and US and other countries significant fatigue and a desire to get back to normality. There were protests in countries like France against it as well as the US. You only have to look back on this forum at the fatigue towards the end and the unwillingness ever to go into lockdown again.

Its always better to get people's buy in and co-operation than force them to do something as they will rebel against the latter.

There were reports of people thronging the streets of Spanish cities after their very strict lockdown. This may be partly to blame for their recent spike in infections.

JimmyVik

Bit cynical wrote: »

There were reports of people thronging the streets of Spanish cities after their very strict lockdown. This may be partly to blame for their recent spike in infections.

I saw pictures of Barcelona the day they were told to lock down.
The beach was jammed and the streets were packed.
The only thing the police were able to do was close the squares off with barricades. Other than that it was like a protest march everywhere. They all came out

timmy_mallet

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Whether Sweden got it right or not all depends when mass vaccination is completed. If everyone could be vaccinated next week and this thing was over, Sweden would have got it badly wrong. But if there is still no mass vaccination this time next year and Sweden maintain their current trend of declining deaths, they will likely have got it right. Other countries will be continually fighting outbreaks. It seems inevitable that deaths will start to rise in other countries in the coming weeks.

Ireland for example based on current trends will have a choice to make in about a month - another mass lockdown or follow the Swedish model of leaving everything open.

Well, Sweden is theoretically vaccinating people now, and their R number is lower than ours.

(PS. 'mass vaccination' is a disturbing dystopian term. Christ!)

timmy_mallet

Donald Trump wrote: »

Well it would definitely be over in Sweden soon if they all catch it and die from it.

CFR is 0.6% max. So that would never happen. But carry on.

Bit cynical

timmy_mallet wrote: »

Well, Sweden is theoretically vaccinating people now, and their R number is lower than ours.

(PS. 'mass vaccination' is a disturbing dystopian term. Christ!)

Their R number is the lowest in the EU based on the rate at which daily cases are falling and their daily case numbers are very close to the average for the whole of the EU per capita, whose daily cases are now rising.

AdamD

Kinda shows the limitations of the R rate

You could have thousands of cases a day and have a lower R rate than a country with 20 cases a day

Bit cynical

AdamD wrote: »

Kinda shows the limitations of the R rate

You could have thousands of cases a day and have a lower R rate than a country with 20 cases a day

That's right. You need to use the two in combination. The R rate doesn't tell you where you are right now but rather the direction in which you are going.

JimmyVik

Bit cynical wrote: »

Their R number is the lowest in the EU based on the rate at which daily cases are falling and their daily case numbers are very close to the average for the whole of the EU per capita, whose daily cases are now rising.

Call me cynical, but i think Sweden are being less than honest these days.

sydthebeat

JimmyVik wrote: »

Call me cynical, but i think Sweden are being less than honest these days.

These days??

They haven't been honest since the start of this whole pandemic.

Bit cynical

The rising green line on the top left of the chart is Luxembourg.

bb1234567

biko wrote: »

At least Sweden isn't on the 100K table now

All the European countries which are in the top 10 deaths per capita have been removed in that list above.Wonder what they're attempting to do , trying to make it look like the UK is doing no better than countries of the developing world maybe?

Spain , Italy , Sweden and France still place within the top 10 highest number of deaths per capita

Bit cynical

sydthebeat wrote: »

These days??

They haven't been honest since the start of this whole pandemic.

Though rapidly falling, daily deaths for Sweden are still quite high even though daily case numbers are now about at the EU average. Only Bulgaria is higher at present. This is due to the lag between infections and daily deaths. We can expect therefore that daily fatalities will continue to fall for Sweden.

greyday

Bit cynical wrote: »

Though rapidly falling, daily deaths for Sweden are still quite high even though daily case numbers are now about at the EU average. Only Bulgaria is higher at present. This is due to the lag between infections and daily deaths. We can expect therefore that daily fatalities will continue to fall for Sweden.

Tegnel said they had plateaued at a low level........

Bit cynical

greyday wrote: »

Tegnel said they had plateaued at a low level........

I think daily deaths will continue to fall in Sweden for the next couple of weeks at least and, sadly, we'll also see some rises in those countries that are currently suffering a resurgence. Hopefully though treatments will have improved since the earlier outbreak and fatalities can be minimised.

mcsean2163

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

Wordometer shows 7 day moving average of daily deaths for Sweden as 1 on July 29. On same date, 7 day moving average of daily deaths in Ireland is also 1

Discuss....

Bit cynical

mcsean2163 wrote: »

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

Wordometer shows 7 day moving average of daily deaths for Sweden as 1 on July 29. On same date, 7 day moving average of daily deaths in Ireland is also 1

Discuss....

Looks like they are using the wrong dataset. According to WHO, Sweden reported 63 deaths over the last 7 days giving an average of 9. Download data here.

biko

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Discuss....

No