Sweden avoiding lockdown

tobefrank321

No sign of a second wave in Sweden as is happening in many other countries. Their daily new case numbers are back where they were in mid March despite significantly more testing now.

biko

Mr Tegnell doesn't want Sweden to be compared to neighbour Norway and instead he prefers to be compared to Belgium, UK, and Netherlands.

I understand since Norway is doing much better than Sweden, and UK/Belgium/NL also have high numbers.

It's like Ireland not comparing itself with neighbours NI and UK, but instead with Italy and Spain.

biko

tobefrank321 wrote: »

No sign of a second wave in Sweden as is happening in many other countries. Their daily new case numbers are back where they were in mid March despite significantly more testing now.

patnor1011

tobefrank321 wrote: »

No sign of a second wave in Sweden as is happening in many other countries. Their daily new case numbers are back where they were in mid March despite significantly more testing now.

There is no second wave. What is being portrayed as "second wave" is in fact just a virus coming to states where population was not yet exposed to the virus. Even Ireland exposure was delayed by lockdown which in fact only prolonged inevitable.

Better explained here:
At the end of May there was a significant breakthrough in understanding of COVID antibodies which was not widely reported: a Swiss study from Zurich led by Professor Onur Boyman demonstrated that a large proportion of the population had a natural immunity through existing antibodies on the mucous membrane (IgA) or cellular immunity (T cells), likely to have been acquired through previous exposure to coronaviruses such as influenza or the common cold (the absence of exposure to previous coronavirus is now thought to explain the opposite effect in 1918).

The study found that that the presence of (IgG and IgM) antibodies generated on infection which tests had previously focused on, were NOT in fact required to defeat the virus and that existing (IgA and T cell) antibodies that gave a natural immunity. Moreover, the population with this natural immunity was demonstrated to be five times greater than those with the IgG and IgM antibodies on which tests had hitherto focused. If this could be substantiated, then the population already exposed to COVID would also be five times greater than previously assumed. In other words, if a population sample showed 10% had IgG and IgM antibodies (which might be subject to decay) then it was likely that at least half of the population had already been exposed to COVID.

It followed that antibody studies that measured only IgG and IgM that were now predicting population-based mortality risk of 0.1% to 0.5% (lower than the 1% in the elderly population aboard the Diamond Princess) could be even further reduced by a factor of five to 0.02% to 0.1% and the level of symptomatic exposure from 20% to below 5% (consistent with the flu season ironically predicted by Fauci in March). Not only would this mean a further similar reduction in the estimated true mortality rate but it meant that there were far fewer people in the population who had never had exposure to the virus, so a far lower number who could potentially catch the virus in the future.

In short, the infamous herd immunity was much closer than previously realised.

This explained why, by July, the virus had all but disappeared in populations like Sweden, New York (Fig. 7) and Wuhan (which reportedly tested its entire population of 11 million and found only 300 cases, all of which were asymptomatic) which were significantly affected by a “first wave”: if the ratio of those with IgA and T cell antibodies to IgG and IgM antibodies across population was confirmed at a factor of five then if 20% of the population had traditional IgG and IgM antibodies (such as New York with 21% and London with 17%) then the virus died out because there was simply no one left for it to infect. It followed that the virus could only survive in population samples where testing showed the presence of IgG and IgM antibodies was below 20% (and allowing for their decay probably well below).

Nobel Prize winning biological scientist Michael Levitt had already come to the same conclusion based on a different approach: he predicted that the virus would “burn out” when it had infected 15-20% of the population though based on a pattern predicted by the “Gompertz curve” which indicated that the number of deaths after the peak is roughly double those from before resulting in Levitt accurately predicting the number of Chinese and Swedish deaths, months in advance. Levitt has recently bravely predicted that US COVID will “be done in 4 weeks [25 Aug] with a total reported death below 170,000”, compared to 149,000 today.

Boyman’s theory on “IgA and T Cell immunity” explained the accuracy of Levitt’s “Gompertz curve” predictions and this was now being backed up by the empirical evidence which showed that the populations which were hit hardest with high initial rates of infection and mortality, were the ones where the virus had almost disappeared.

Almost none of this was reported by a media which choose instead to attach the misnomer “second wave” to outbreaks of COVID infection in populations which had not yet experienced any meaningful “first wave”: the Sunbelt states in the US, Australia, Hong Kong, Japan. The irony was that the vulnerability of populations which had not yet seen meaningful infection outbreaks and therefore the fallacy of lockdown had already been predicted by Levitt and Giesecke. It was also logical that population groups where IgG and IgM antibodies were still significantly below 20% would continue to see infections.

tobefrank321

biko wrote: »

Call it what you want. A new spike, a new wave, whatever.

The point is Swedens numbers are tailing off, while many other country's including our own are rising sharply.

Boggles

tobefrank321 wrote: »

The point is Swedens numbers are tailing off, while many other country's including our own are rising sharply.

That isn't true.

Averages have been staying steady and marginally falling.

biko

patnor1011 wrote: »

Better explained here:
At the end of May there was a significant breakthrough in understanding of COVID antibodies which was not widely reported: a Swiss study from Zurich led by Professor Onur Boyman demonstrated that a large proportion of the population had a natural immunity through existing antibodies on the mucous membrane (IgA) or cellular immunity (T cells), likely to have been acquired through previous exposure to coronaviruses such as influenza or the common cold (the absence of exposure to previous coronavirus is now thought to explain the opposite effect in 1918).

You forgot to link https://blog.argonautcapital.co.uk/articles/2020/07/27/the-biggest-fraud-part-2-the-vaccine-swindle/

nw1dqsv7amx026

biko wrote: »

Mr Tegnell doesn't want Sweden to be compared to neighbour Norway and instead he prefers to be compared to Belgium, UK, and Netherlands.

I understand since Norway is doing much better than Sweden, and UK/Belgium/NL also have high numbers.

It's like Ireland not comparing itself with neighbours NI and UK, but instead with Italy and Spain.

I'm sure you've explained your logic before but this is my experience as I've spent a lot of time in Finland and Sweden in several cities. I've also worked and socialised with both nationalities.
The Swedes and the Finns are very different in their behaviour. Helsinki is more like a small Swedish city such as Linkopping than Stockholm or Gotenborg. Both those cities are more built up with large immigrant pulsations densely populated.
Finland and I believe (but don't know) Norway are neither builtup with dense populations nor having large immigrant populations.
So using your logic we should compare Birmingham to Kilkenny. This would of course suit your argument but makes no sense.
In my opinion the virus doesn't care if you live in Stockholm, Oslo or Dublin but seems to care about demographics, ethnicity and social behaviour.
The main point about Sweden is whether they are correct in believing that their approach is sustainable and will lead to fewer deaths in the end. Its starting to look like that will be the case but we won't really know until later on the year.
I would expect their rates to start increasing once people stay inside.

But in the absence of a vaccine we should all be hoping that they are correct and I don't understand some of the posters who seem to be hoping they fail.

tobefrank321

biko wrote: »

Mr Tegnell doesn't want Sweden to be compared to neighbour Norway and instead he prefers to be compared to Belgium, UK, and Netherlands.

I understand since Norway is doing much better than Sweden, and UK/Belgium/NL also have high numbers.

It's like Ireland not comparing itself with neighbours NI and UK, but instead with Italy and Spain.

I would say the bigger the population of a country and the more open that country is to the outside world, potentially the more difficult it is to contain covid 19 infections. We're lucky in Ireland we are a relatively small country with relatively few entry points and outside of the cities we are low density. We'd be similar to Norway and New Zealand in that regard. When you get to bigger countries like UK, Belgium and Netherlands, who have either significant populations or significant borders, the problem containing this becomes an issue. Its easier for small countries to contain covid than big ones, with the odd exception such as China.

tobefrank321

Boggles wrote: »

That isn't true.

Averages have been staying steady and marginally falling.

What's the average for the last 7 days and how does it compare to the previous 7 days?

Yesterdays spike would have pushed the 7 day average up hugely, possibly to 30 per day or above.

Actually I just checked there - we've had 201 cases for the 7 days up to yesterday. That's a daily average of 29 cases.

JimmyVik

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

I'm sure you've explained your logic before but this is my experience as I've spent a lot of time in Finland and Sweden in several cities. I've also worked and socialised with both nationalities.
The Swedes and the Finns are very different in their behaviour. Helsinki is more like a small Swedish city such as Linkopping than Stockholm or Gotenborg. Both those cities are more built up with large immigrant pulsations densely populated.
Finland and I believe (but don't know) Norway are neither builtup with dense populations nor having large immigrant populations.
So using your logic we should compare Birmingham to Kilkenny. This would of course suit your argument but makes no sense.
In my opinion the virus doesn't care if you live in Stockholm, Oslo or Dublin but seems to care about demographics, ethnicity and social behaviour.
The main point about Sweden is whether they are correct in believing that their approach is sustainable and will lead to fewer deaths in the end. Its starting to look like that will be the case but we won't really know until later on the year.
I would expect their rates to start increasing once people stay inside.

But in the absence of a vaccine we should all be hoping that they are correct and I don't understand some of the posters who seem to be hoping they fail.

Nobody is hoping Swedens approach fails.
They are observing that it is a disaster so far.

FintanMcluskey

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

But in the absence of a vaccine we should all be hoping that they are correct and I don't understand some of the posters who seem to be hoping they fail.

I agree with all your post but this part especially so.

I am baffled at the posters willing and wanting Sweden to fail?

What the fcuk is that about?

Its some sort of schadenfreude I think

FintanMcluskey

JimmyVik wrote: »

Nobody is hoping Swedens approach fails.
They are observing that it is a disaster so far.

Thats absolute waffle with nothing to support it.

tobefrank321

JimmyVik wrote: »

Nobody is hoping Swedens approach fails.
They are observing that it is a disaster so far.

If covid 19 was a soccer match, we are about 20 minutes into the game.

Lets see what the result is at 90 minutes.

nw1dqsv7amx026

JimmyVik wrote: »

Nobody is hoping Swedens approach fails.
They are observing that it is a disaster so far.

But the recent numbers don't show that as their rates are falling?

Could be that there is (limited) immunity via t cells leading to herd immunity and all of that without locking down their country.
Their current death rate is similar to the death rate from flu?
People vulnerable here remain vulnerable and if this country every reopens fully they will be at risk.
But vulnerable people in Sweden may now fare better.

tobefrank321

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

I agree with all your post but this part especially so.

I am baffled at the posters willing and wanting Sweden to fail?

What the fcuk is that about?

Its some sort of schadenfreude I think

Whatever about wanting them to fail, there seems to be outrage at their approach and an unwillingness to acknowledge when cases and deaths decline. They only want to highlight the negatives.

Its amazing how a country like Belgium has received virtually zero attention for its response whereas Sweden which is mid table gets virtually all the attention, including from media in the likes of the UK.

Limpy

tobefrank321 wrote: »

If covid 19 was a soccer match, we are about 20 minutes into the game.

Lets see what the result is at 90 minutes.

If it was a soccer match (The Economy) the managers (Gov) decided to let the star striker (worker's) on the bench. When asked why they said because he might get injured. We'll wait till we are about 5-0 down (Recession). Apologise to our star striker and hopefully he breaks his balls to save the game.(Economy).

biko

No-one wants old people in Sweden to die.
Our criticism is that the authorities are wrong.

We are the ones saying "the driver is drunk, maybe we should stop and let someone else drive?"
You are the one saying "we haven't hit that many yet, and we're hitting less and less people it seems."

Sweden did the wrong thing and we are now watching them pay for it.
They are trying to divert attention by looking at other countries when the countries most like them are handling the situation much better.

And posters here are gushing over them. Do you not think almost 6000 dead Swedes is a fiasco?
If not, what is your dead limit - if you have one?

nw1dqsv7amx026

biko wrote: »

Our criticism is that the authorities are wrong.

You don't know that. Nobody does. People have different opinions.

If not, what is your dead limit - if you have one?

Have you ever spent time in a country without an economy. There is very little regard for life in those countries.

And what about cancers missed, fatal heart attacks and strokes or the kids who are having their operations put off.

We have in the recent past been rightly outraged at the cervical scandal or kids waiting for scoliosis surgery. But that doesn't matter now?

From what I hear the Swedish health system has not been overwhelmed since this crisis stated.

And best of all, their children have not been sacrificed for the old.

biko

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

You don't know that. Nobody does. People have different opinions.

We can already see their numbers being way higher than they should be compared to their neighbours.

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

Have you ever spent time in a country without an economy. There is very little regard for life in those countries.

I have not, since all countries have an economy. Have you? Which one?

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

From what I hear the Swedish health system has not been overwhelmed since this crisis stated.

We have already debunked this earlier in the thread.
Guideline for doctors were implemented to make sure ICUs did not get overwhelmed. Instead doctors have prescribed morphine to help the old people die.

Yngve Gustafsson, professor of geriatric medicine at Umea University, noted that the proportion of older people in respiratory care nationally was lower than at the same time a year ago, despite people over 70 being the worst affected by covid-19. He expressed concern about the increasing practice of doctors recommending by telephone a “palliative cocktail” for sick older people in care homes.

“Older people are routinely being given morphine and midazolam, which are respiratory-inhibiting,” he told the Svenska Dagbladet newspaper,5 “It’s active euthanasia, to say the least.”

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2376

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

And best of all, their children have not been sacrificed for the old.

Sweden, like everywhere else, stopped elective surgeries.
Emergency surgeries continues there, as in all other countries.

Do you have a particular case in mind where a child was sacrificed?

biko

Fun fact, the professor I mentioned above was invited to speak on tax-payer funded public service Swedish Radio in an incredibly popular show called "Summer".

Swedish Radio censored him.

His summer program was recorded in early June and will air on August 13. But Yngve Gustafson, professor of geriatrics, was not allowed to speak freely on the air.

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nojesbladet/a/4q5mx9/aldreforskaren-jag-blev-censurerad-av-sr

nw1dqsv7amx026

biko wrote: »

We can already see their numbers being way higher than they should be compared to their neighbours.

As I said before I don't get this argument. How does Tullamore compare to Manchester?

I have not, since all countries have an economy. Have you? Which one?

West Africa, Cuba, former Soviet republics and South America.
I've seen dead bodies left on streets for several days.
People can die from an appendicitis in these countries

We have already debunked this earlier in the thread.
Guideline for doctors were implemented to make sure ICUs did not get overwhelmed. Instead doctors have prescribed morphine to help the old people die.

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2376

Yes I've seen those reports and they are probably true. Have a look at where our fatalities died. Mostly left to die in nursing homes. They may have been better off with morphine.

Sweden, like everywhere else, stopped elective surgeries.
Emergency surgeries continues there, as in all other countries.

Do you have a particular case in mind where a child was sacrificed?

I know of cancer patients who've had their chemo stopped. There is no health screening happening. Anecdotally, I've heard people are avoidng doctors due to fear of corona and suffering heartt attacks and stroke.

Children have not had education in five months. What would you call that other than sacrificing their wellbeing for older people.

greyday

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Call it what you want. A new spike, a new wave, whatever.

The point is Swedens numbers are tailing off, while many other country's including our own are rising sharply.

Other than yesterdays spike, we have very low levels of infection for quite a while now.

nw1dqsv7amx026

greyday wrote: »

Other than yesterdays spike, we have very low levels of infection for quite a while now.

Yes but our approach is not sustainable.

I don't care if pubs never open but once they do, our numbers will start off again.

froog

Sweden is 8th in the world for deaths per capita. 5th excluding san marino and andorra. And they are 50th for tests per capita. Am i missing something here? Why is their approach considered a success by some?

nw1dqsv7amx026

froog wrote: »

Sweden is 8th in the world for deaths per capita. 5th excluding san marino and andorra. And they are 50th for tests per capita. Am i missing something here? Why is their approach considered a success by some?

Because you can't stop it indefinitely unless you lock down indefinitely and there may never be a vaccine that works well.

And because there maybe immunity from getting a mild case.

I would expect another lock down here if we continue with our approach.

Finally, I don't believe the young should have to
deal with the consequence of this approach especially when you consider the virus has very little affect on them.

biko

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

West Africa, Cuba, former Soviet republics and South America.
I've seen dead bodies left on streets for several days.
People can die from an appendicitis in these countries

I know of cancer patients who've had their chemo stopped. There is no health screening happening. Anecdotally, I've heard people are avoidng doctors due to fear of corona and suffering heartt attacks and stroke.

Although this is probably true it is only anecdotal and unverifiable.

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

Yes I've seen those reports and they are probably true. Have a look at where our fatalities died. Mostly left to die in nursing homes. They may have been better off with morphine.

Don't you think they'd be better off in an ICU?

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

Children have not had education in five months. What would you call that other than sacrificing their wellbeing for older people.

I'd rather have the children wait some time before going back to school than letting people die.
It appears your priorities are different and may explain why you think Sweden's approach is good.

greyday

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

Yes but our approach is not sustainable.

I don't care if pubs never open but once they do, our numbers will start off again.

It actually is sustainable if the article you quoted is correct, if Swedes have immunity from previous corona virus infections, there is no reason not to believe Irish people will have similar levels of immunity.
There is also now more understanding of what the standard of care should be and we are also closer to a Vaccine if one is ever to be effective.
We saved lives while building up knowledge while Sweden sacrificed lives building their knowledge.
Personally I would like to see an independent group collecting the data on deaths around the world as politicians as we see with Trump are economical with facts when they make a hames of something.

FintanMcluskey

biko wrote: »

And posters here are gushing over them. Do you not think almost 6000 dead Swedes is a fiasco?
If not, what is your dead limit - if you have one?

The lack of understanding of statistics never fails to amaze me.

nw1dqsv7amx026

biko wrote: »

Don't you think they'd be better off in an ICU?

I don't know which is better, icu or drugged up on morphine in a nursing home. I know that a large percentage of our dead died in nursing homes and i hope they didn't suffer.

I'd rather have the children wait some time before going back to school than letting people die.
It appears your priorities are different and may explain why you think Sweden's approach is good.

Should schools close every flu season because the fatality rates and at risk groups are comparable.