Sweden avoiding lockdown

Ha Long Bay

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Thank you for putting this data together and demostrating a point I was unable communicate in such a manner.

Sweden is far from a failure when compared to Ireland with the correct data set.

I also want Sweden to be successful to prove restrictions are not an effective tool

I tried to disprove your statement last night which you made without caveats using numbers that Ireland and Sweden have as you said "a similar death rate"

Thanks to the poster who put the graph together to explain it even better why that statement was incorrect.

FintanMcluskey

john4321 wrote: »

I tried to disprove your statement last night which you made without caveats using numbers that Ireland and Sweden have as you said "a similar death rate"

Thanks to the poster who put the graph together to explain it even better why that statement was incorrect.

Are you ok?

FintanMcluskey

Arghus wrote: »

The numbers are there Fintan.

Your argument is false.

The fact that you can only answer with gibberish is very telling.

Will you take a look at the graphs in the previous posts.

The other poster has, as expected, completely misinterpreted the information.

Have a go yourself and see do the figures mean Sweden was a failure

Ha Long Bay

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Are you ok?

I'm great and thanks for asking.


So back to the topic in question you have stated multiple times the death date from Covid between Ireland and Sweden is similar now we have a nice graph as well as the numbers to disprove this.

Can we agree the statement you have made a few times now based on the facts is false and it's not a good idea to post false information?

FintanMcluskey

john4321 wrote: »

I'm great and thanks for asking.


So back to the topic in question you have stated multiple times the death date from Covid between Ireland and Sweden is similar now we have a nice graph as well as the numbers to disprove this.

Can we agree the statement you have made a few times now based on the facts is false and it's not a good idea to post false information?

I'd advise you stop highlighting your inability to interpret the data that poster has put together.

I can only assume you are looking at the red line on the graph that continues upwards and you have neither looked at the figures used or read the posters explanation?

If not, I have no idea what you are interpreting?

Arghus

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Will you take a look at the graphs in the previous posts.

The other poster has, as expected, completely misinterpreted the information.

Have a go yourself and see do the figures mean Sweden was a failure

Twice our population. Three times, strictly speaking slightly over 3 times, the death rate amongst the over 65's.

Failure? Well, I wouldn't call it a success...

FintanMcluskey

Arghus wrote: »

Twice our population. Three times, strictly speaking slightly over 3 times, the death rate amongst the over 65's.

Failure? Well, I wouldn't call it a success...

Are you suggesting Sweden have twice our population over 65's?

Arghus

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Are you suggesting Sweden have twice our population over 65's?

We have a slightly smaller proportion of people over 65: 13% to their 20%. That's not enough to explain the disparity in their death figures.

Ce he sin

Arghus wrote: »

We have a slightly smaller proportion of people over 65: 13% to their 20%. That's not enough to explain the disparity in their death figures.

It fact and if those figures are correct, it goes close. 13% of our 4.9m is 637,000. 20% of their 10m or so is 2,000,000 which is slightly more than three times our figure so you'd expect three times as many deaths in this age cohort.

Ha Long Bay

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Are you suggesting Sweden have twice our population over 65's?

Do you need to see the pic again in the other thread of the 4 lads working hard with them goalposts?


You made a blanket statement as fact that Ireland had a similar death rate as Sweden from Covid. No caveats, no mention of age profile, what they eat for dinner etc.

I and other posters challenge that statement and you decide to double down and change the criteria. This is disingenuous posting in my opinion and the only reason I decided to engage in replying.

Again an honest opinion I would have been delighted if the Swedish strategy was successful and I think not one person on this thread would have wanted it to fail as it would have given a great understanding on how to handle a similar pandemic in a different manor.

Ireland did not have this option and chose a stricter lockdown which as we can all see was effective.

FintanMcluskey

john4321 wrote: »

Do you need to see the pic again in the other thread of the 4 lads working hard with them goalposts?


You made a blanket statement as fact that Ireland had a similar death rate as Sweden from Covid. No caveats, no mention of age profile, what they eat for dinner etc.

I and other posters challenge that statement and you decide to double down and change the criteria. This is disingenuous posting in my opinion and the only reason I decided to engage in replying.

Again an honest opinion I would have been delighted if the Swedish strategy was successful and I think not one person on this thread would have wanted it to fail as it would have given a great understanding on how to handle a similar pandemic in a different manor.

Ireland did not have this option and chose a stricter lockdown which as we can all see was effective.

You are displaying an inability to interpret the graph you think is proving you are correct.

Its amusing if I honest

CalamariFritti

Arghus wrote: »

We have a slightly smaller proportion of people over 65: 13% to their 20%. That's not enough to explain the disparity in their death figures.

But it kinda matches though doesn't it?

They have 10m population we have 5m. They have 5,700 deaths we have 1,700. If you halved their deaths to compare to our population size that'e 2,850. Thats our number plus 50%

They have 20% over 65s thats 2m, again halved thats 1m. We have 13% thats 650k. Their number is again our number plus 50%.

The ratio between over 65s and deaths is the same in both countries. Those extra deaths they have seem to correlate exactly to their greater number of over 65s.

FintanMcluskey

Arghus wrote: »

We have a slightly smaller proportion of people over 65: 13% to their 20%. That's not enough to explain the disparity in their death figures.

Ill try explain in a different way

Sweden have a death rate of 0.21 % of the over 65 population

Ireland have a death rate of 0.25% of the over 65 population

Those figures are from the figures bit cynical sourced and have variations in data ie I've had to include Swedens population from 60+ but Ireland from 65+

Arghus

Okay, fair cop. I can admit there's some food for thought there.

FintanMcluskey

Arghus wrote: »

Okay, fair cop. I can admit there's some food for thought there.

Come again, Ive dropped my monocle

Ha Long Bay

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

You are displaying an inability to interpret the graph you think is proving you are correct.

Its amusing if I honest

Please feel free to address the points in my post and break down the parts you do not agree with.

It's not a fair debate when you just keep saying I have an inability to do something.

Just to recap the only point is the issue I have is with your blanket statement regarding Ireland and Sweden having similar death rates without any cavates.

Ce he sin

john4321 wrote: »

I'm great and thanks for asking.


So back to the topic in question you have stated multiple times the death date from Covid between Ireland and Sweden is similar now we have a nice graph as well as the numbers to disprove this.

Can we agree the statement you have made a few times now based on the facts is false and it's not a good idea to post false information?

As the other posters here don't have the courtesy to point out where you're misinterpreting the graph, here goes:
The orange line (Sweden) goes higher than the blue line (Ireland). That's not because of worse figures, it's because the data available doesn't allow you to establish a figure for Ireland for the category 80 to 90 whereas the Swedish data does. You'll see that we stop at age 80 while they go to 85. That's because our data has a figure for 75 to 84 which the person who produced the graph has taken at it halfway point of 80 while the Swedes produce a figure for 80 to 90 which has been taken as 85. The significant thing is how closely one line tracks the other, not how far it goes.

joeguevara

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Ill try explain in a different way

Sweden have a death rate of 0.21 % of the over 65 population

Ireland have a death rate of 0.25% of the over 65 population

Those figures are from the figures bit cynical sourced and have variations in data ie I've had to include Swedens population from 60+ but Ireland from 65+

Fintan I have been reading a lot of your posts and you are an extremely articulate person and you have a great comprehension of statistics and how to interpret them. Notwithstanding what I have posted on the matter I really can’t decide what the best approach is. Every day something comes up that contradicts something that appeared correct. While from a professional point of view I remained largely unaffected throughout this, from a personal point of view I only met my family for the first time two weeks ago and probably won’t again for a month. People arguing about pubs is ridiculous as it is irrelevant to punters (obviously relevant to employees).

I hope correct decisions are made but I am experiencing people resisting guidance for the sake of it.

Arghus

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Come again, Ive dropped my monocle

Every once in a while I am wrong and I have no problem acknowledging that.

Ha Long Bay

Ce he sin wrote: »

As the other posters here don't have the courtesy to point out where you're misinterpreting the graph, here goes:
The orange line (Sweden) goes higher than the blue line (Ireland). That's not because of worse figures, it's because the data available doesn't allow you to establish a figure for Ireland for the category 80 to 90 whereas the Swedish data does. You'll see that we stop at age 80 while they go to 85. That's because our data has a figure for 75 to 84 which the person who produced the graph has taken at it halfway point of 80 while the Swedes produce a figure for 80 to 90 which has been taken as 85. The significant thing is how closely one line tracks the other, not how far it goes.

Sorry I thought I could not have made my point any clearer in my other posts i'm not here to argue to age profile, lifestyle, climate factors etc.

I just just trying to point out a statement made without and additional information or comparisons were incorrect and I think this should be flagged and challenged.

FintanMcluskey

john4321 wrote: »

Please feel free to address the points in my post and break down the parts you do not agree with.

It's not a fair debate when you just keep saying I have an inability to do something.

Just to recap the only point is the issue I have is with your blanket statement regarding Ireland and Sweden having similar death rates without any cavates.

Ill apologise for being disparaging, but you did engage in debate last evening by posting a meme.

Anyhow, I wasnt articulate enough to carry out the construction of the data as bit cynical did, which proved the point I was trying to articulate for a while now

Which was the numbers are similar

Bit cynical

Further to an earlier chart in this post, I wanted to see if one set of data stood out from the other when intermingled. Since the age brackets overlap for Sweden and Ireland we can combine them in one plot:


Data points alternate between Ireland and Sweden. Looking at the chart, it is very hard to tell which data point is Ireland and which is Sweden; they fit together very well. There is just one point at age 55 (representing the 50 to 60 age bracket) which comes from Sweden. It is higher than it should be for a good fit but only just.

[Edit: I think the point at age 75 (also Sweden) is slightly lower, again only just, for a good fit. This corresponds to the observation made in the earlier post, that at 75 or thereabouts you are slightly better off in Sweden.]

The conclusion from this is that whatever age you are, you have pretty much the same chance of succumbing to Covid-19 whether you are in Ireland or Sweden, other things being equal.

FintanMcluskey

joeguevara wrote: »

Fintan I have been reading a lot of your posts and you are an extremely articulate person and you have a great comprehension of statistics and how to interpret them. Notwithstanding what I have posted on the matter I really can’t decide what the best approach is. Every day something comes up that contradicts something that appeared correct. While from a professional point of view I remained largely unaffected throughout this, from a personal point of view I only met my family for the first time two weeks ago and probably won’t again for a month. People arguing about pubs is ridiculous as it is irrelevant to punters (obviously relevant to employees).

I hope correct decisions are made but I am experiencing people resisting guidance for the sake of it.

The worry is that Swedens approach is disregarded as having a high cost of life when that may not be the case.

FintanMcluskey

Bit cynical wrote: »

The conclusion from this is that whatever age you are, you have pretty much the same chance of succumbing to Covid-19 whether you are in Ireland or Sweden, other things being equal.

Exactly.

They way you can articulate that data makes me sound like Frank Spencer

joeguevara

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

The worry is that Swedens approach is disregarded as having a high cost of life when that may not be the case.

I completely agree but one worry is relying on statistics that might not be the full picture. For example Netherlands have come out to state their death rate may be double as they didn’t include deaths not in hospitals and nursing homes. If someone discusses statistics and alternative mitigants, brilliant.

Ce he sin

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

The worry is that Swedens approach is disregarded as having a high cost of life when that may not be the case.

Then again, it may. It just depends on who you wish to compare with. There are not many in Sweden who would compare their figures with those of Ireland. There are however many who would compare them to Norway and that comparison doesn't look good if you're Swedish. As to whether or not this will continue long term, I'm afraid nobody knows.

Ha Long Bay

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Ill apologise for being disparaging, but you did engage in debate last evening by posting a meme.

Anyhow, I wasnt articulate enough to carry out the construction of the data as bit cynical did, which proved the point I was trying to articulate for a while now

Which was the numbers are similar

What I would like is to turn these threads back into something useful and engaging. It's nothing personal at all just when a statement is made it needs to be accurate or else it will be called out. I'm sure you can agree thats important.


If I for example could post Sweden has a death rate 20 times higher than Ireland from Covid. I would hope you would challenge this as its made up and false.


The points brought up about age profile of death are interesting\concerning\disappointing and should be discussed and my main hope from this is that every country learns how to handle the scenario better.

FintanMcluskey

Ce he sin wrote: »

Then again, it may. It just depends on who you wish to compare with. There are not many in Sweden who would compare their figures with those of Ireland. There are however many who would compare them to Norway and that comparison doesn't look good if you're Swedish. As to whether or not this will continue long term, I'm afraid nobody knows.

Yeah absolutely.

Posters here had an opinion Ireland had outpreformed Sweden at protecting its citizen's however, it was that I was questioning

Spiderman0081

I live in Stockholm. Have done with 10 years now and have never felt so lucky to live here as I do now.
This February you could not convince me otherwise that Sweden’s strategy would be nothing other than a complete disaster. I was quietly terrified to be honest that they we’re not following the lockdown strategies of our European neighbors.
I even bought yeast, powdered mash and tinned mushrooms for Christ’s sake.
But then I started to read, and listen. Not to Anders Tegnell or the hysteria on RTÉ. I started going through the data. So much data.
The fact of the matter is that this virus is a real danger for the elderly, especially with underlying conditions.
But, the stress that a lockdown can cause on a family is obvious. I have a large family with lots of sisters, brothers and cousins. I have seen the change in their way of thinking, the worry they have and most unfortunately the acceptance they have of what the government in Ireland has directed of them.
Closing schools for the young, in my opinion is one of the most harmful things you can do to a country. Even with all the death that has been caused by this virus. I say that having two young children of my own who go to school in Stockholm, where the virus is widespread.

An unfortunate but very important point to make is that many of the people who work in Sweden’s care homes are immigrants with different cultures to that of the Swedish and who have often a poor grasp of the Swedish language. Unlike the Swedes, they like to hang out with family and friends on a regular basis.
These workers unfortunately did not understand early on the importance of social distancing when they returned home from work. When they returned to work they were never tested for the virus thanks to the slow response from the government. This was a recipe for disaster, both for the people they cared for at work and their elderly family members at home.
Anders Tegnell, FHM and the Swedish government have admitted time and time again that they did not protect their elderly. They are aware of this fact.

My boss has had covid, my friends wife has had covid, 3 of my girlfriends colleagues at work have had covid.
None of them, including myself want a lockdown like Ireland. Not even before they found out they had covid.
Someone posted earlier that 0,8% of people who have contracted the virus in Sweden, aged 0-70 have died.
In Stockholm, 0.1% of people aged 0-69 have died. This is a fact.
I think wearing a mask out in the open is ridiculous. I think wearing a mask on a crowded bus makes sense. I think trying to cancel the Croaigh Patrick climb because of this virus is borderline insanity.
When you walk the streets of Stockholm, there are elderly everywhere. Buying flowers or just sitting in the park. I have often asked them if they are concerned about catching the virus. Nearly every one of them said yes. But not not one of those people I asked, wanted to be stuck at home, alone, worrying about dying from a virus.
This is what Tegnell, Johan Giesecke and the Swedish government have talked about. There is a delicate line between caring for the health of the people and dictating to someone what is best for their own good.
We may compare numbers all day but it won’t help change anyone’s mind who thought not going for a walk on an empty beach was a bad idea because Irish politicians said so.
The long term effects of closing a country down are yet to be seen but we can all take a wild guess that’s it’s not going to be good. Not to mention the unimaginable debt Ireland recently signed up to in the recent covid eu deal. People actually don’t or want to grasp the debt trap that is.
Sweden have always said that they hope their strategy will work out in the long run but they have never to my knowledge said that they know for a fact what is the right thing to do. They are reacting to the facts, not the hysteria.
They admit they let down the elderly. The number of cases is still very high but mainly among young people. Testing is widespread. Grandparents who are willing to take the risk of seeing their grandchildren are allowed do so. People go to work. Every second table at McDonald’s is closed off. Their are signs everywhere about keeping your distance. Everybody is washing their hands.
No matter what happens in Ireland, the government will take credit only for the positives and admit none of the negatives. I hope more and more people realize this. If the virus magically disappears it’s because everyone listened to the advice. If the cases increase, it’s because people aren’t doing what their told.
I hope to god no healthy person on here is actually considering taking a vaccine if it ever appears. I have had covid. I may get it again. The science is still out on that. But I honestly can’t think of any horrible situation that would make me resort to sticking that needle in my arm.
Just to remind everyone reading this of the scare mongering that was forced upon the Irish people, I will link an article. Now try to work out, in relation to population how many cases their should have been on one day in Sweden because of no lockdowns on the mentioned days.
What a joke.

Spiderman0081

Sorry can’t post url so here’s the copied article dated 13 April on RTÉ.

“The Minister for Health has said Ireland's approach to tackling Covid-19 is the "right strategy" that is "going to save lives".

Simon Harris said it is important for the Irish people, who are hurting and who are making sacrifices, to know this.

Minister Harris cited modelling done by Professor Philip Nolan, which projected that this coming Sunday alone, there would have been 120,000 new cases of the virus, if no restrictive measures had been introduced.

If just partial mitigation had been done, by the end of May, the modelling suggested we would see around 70,000 new cases on one day.”