Sweden avoiding lockdown

Spiderman0081

Boggles wrote: »

Is he? You sure?

Anyway I have to email back this Nigerian Prince he says he is going to give me 600 million, imagine that.

Not sure what to say to this. I haven’t been on boards long enough obviously to understand people’s reactions to me saying I live in a country other than Ireland.

nw1dqsv7amx026

Spiderman0081 wrote: »

No “healthy” people. That’s very important. I am in no way anti vaccine but am worried for any healthy person who is willing to take a chance on a new vaccine which is being hurried for many of the wrong reasons. I say that coming from a standpoint of caring. Nothing more, or less.

Vaccines normally work the opposite way. The healthy take the vaccine to protect the at risk by generating herd immunity when they are vaccinated.

nw1dqsv7amx026

Duplicate post.

charlie14

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

You we referring to the fact Irelands inquest would be short lived, which I believe was based upon your own inability to understand the figures.

Ill summarise for you, if you are over 65 you have the same chance of dying of Covid in Ireland or Sweden. Ireland has not protected its citizens any better.

So to address your initial point which I assume you based on your own limited understanding, the inquest for Ireland will need to be as invasive as Sweden.

I`m afraid Fintan your ability to understand figures was shown to be limited when your own figures for over 65 deaths in the USA didn`t show what you believed they did.


On a like for like basis we have little in common with Sweden, but if we did, statistically if you were over 65 in Ireland with lockdown you stood a much better chance of survival than you would have in Sweden.


If we you compare the death rate in Sweden for all age groups to Ireland using the HSE figure, Sweden is 62% greater.
If we take the HIQA figure the death rate is 2.4 times higher.
And that is not even touching on a further 4,000 excess deaths in Sweden for the first 6 months of this year over and above their reported Covid-19 deaths.

charlie14

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

My point is that there will be huge political, financial and social pressure to create and deliver a vaccine.
So, being slow or reluctant to take this vaccine is neither foolish nor anti science.
I'm happy to be last in the queue to take it.

Could also be that the vulnerable are not able to take this vaccine.

But that is really the basic thinking with vaccines is it not. That they create a herd immunity for those unable to take a particular vaccine.

nw1dqsv7amx026

charlie14 wrote: »

I`m afraid Fintan your ability to understand figures was shown to be limited when your own figures for over 65 deaths in the USA didn`t show what you believed they did.


On a like for like basis we have little in common with Sweden, but if we did, statistically if you were over 65 in Ireland with lockdown you stood a much better chance of survival than you would have in Sweden.


If we you compare the death rate in Sweden for all age groups to Ireland using the HSE figure, Sweden is 62% greater.
If we take the HIQA figure the death rate is 2.4 times higher.
And that is not even touching on a further 4,000 excess deaths in Sweden for the first 6 months of this year over and above their reported Covid-19 deaths.

I haven't had time to look into the previously mentioned figures. I tried to do so before but was hampered by the CSO only releasing numbers on those aged over 65. Also the Irish government had not released a detailed breakdown of deaths by age.

I would assume that significantly more vulnerable people have been infected in Sweden than in Ireland. I would also have assumed that their death rate was therefore higher.

The problem is that our vulnerable will remain vulnerable until there is herd immunity.
Plus our approach is not sustainable economically or socially.
Could you address that?

nw1dqsv7amx026

charlie14 wrote: »

But that is really the basic thinking with vaccines is it not. That they create a herd immunity for those unable to take a particular vaccine.

I said the same above??
I've seen reports that the current vaccines under trial are difficult to take. The trials are on fit younger people only.
That is true for other vaccines also. I recall having a bad reaction to a rabbies vaccine several years ago.

FintanMcluskey

Bit cynical wrote: »

Just on the age breakdown in Ireland and Sweden,



This combines Covid-19 data from census population for each country. It is a little hard to interpret as the age brackets are different for Ireland and Sweden. However I plotted some of the data in Excel to produce:


I left out the 85+ and 95+ brackets as these are of different sizes. Looking at the chart, there's not a lot of difference between Ireland and Sweden but it looks like between 70 and 80 you have a lower chance of death by Covid in Sweden than Ireland. Between 60 and 70, a slightly lower chance in Ireland.

There's not a huge amount in the difference but I think we can say that Sweden was not worse in any significant way than Ireland in the treatment of its elderly. Both countries made similar mistakes and Sweden, at least, have admitted to this.

There was someone on here saying he was glad he lived in Ireland because he was 70. But, in fact, it probably does not make a huge amount of difference. If we control for age, Ireland and Sweden have performed roughly the same.

Sources: Ireland population (2016): CSO.ie
Ireland deaths by age bracket: Epidemiology of COVID-19 in Ireland

Sweden Population: SCB.se
Sweden deaths by age: Statistica

charlie14 wrote: »

On a like for like basis we have little in common with Sweden, but if we did, statistically if you were over 65 in Ireland with lockdown you stood a much better chance of survival than you would have in Sweden.

Please read above.

If a citizen is over 65 in Ireland they are no safer from Covid than a citizen in Sweden.

charlie14

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

I haven't had time to look into the previously mentioned figures. I tried to do so before but was hampered by the CSO only releasing numbers on those aged over 65. Also the Irish government had not released a detailed breakdown of deaths by age.

I would assume that significantly more vulnerable people have been infected in Sweden than in Ireland. I would also have assumed that their death rate was therefore higher.

The problem is that our vulnerable will remain vulnerable until there is herd immunity.
Plus our approach is not sustainable economically or socially.
Could you address that?

With the death rate higher then it is only logical to assume that proportionately more of those vulnerable have died in Sweden than Ireland.
The problem with herd immunity for this virus is that there is no evidence of it being acquired naturally. Even for those already infected we do not know to what degree, if any, what the level is or for how long it lasts.
For now the best protection for the vulnerable is to keep the numbers down and where there are outbreaks rapid test, trace and quarantine.

FintanMcluskey

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

I would assume that significantly more vulnerable people have been infected in Sweden than in Ireland. I would also have assumed that their death rate was therefore higher.

Thats not the case. Ireland does not have a lower death rate

FintanMcluskey

charlie14 wrote: »

With the death rate higher then it is only logical to assume that proportionately more of those vulnerable have died in Sweden than Ireland.

Not the case

charlie14

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Please read above.

If a citizen is over 65 in Ireland they are no safer from Covid than a citizen in Sweden.

I don`t know what you believe that proves, but I have a feeling it`s not what you think it does.


Over 65 deaths in Ireland 1,644.
Over 65 deaths in Sweden 5,202.
Do the maths and it is exactly the figure I gave you. 62% more deaths in Sweden of over 65`s than Ireland.
If HIQA`s figures are correct the same applies. 2.4 times more deaths of over 65`s in Sweden than Ireland.

charlie14

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Not the case

It is the case, and again the figures you provided yourself prove it.

FintanMcluskey

charlie14 wrote: »

I don`t know what you believe that proves, but I have a feeling it`s not what you think it does.


Over 65 deaths in Ireland 1,644.
Over 65 deaths in Sweden 5,202.
Do the maths and it is exactly the figure I gave you. 62% more deaths in Sweden of over 65`s than Ireland.
If HIQA`s figures are correct the same applies. 2.4 times more deaths of over 65`s in Sweden than Ireland.

Charile you dont understand.

Over 65s are no safer in Ireland than Sweden. Do you understand why that statement is correct?

charlie14

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

I said the same above??
I've seen reports that the current vaccines under trial are difficult to take. The trials are on fit younger people only.
That is true for other vaccines also. I recall having a bad reaction to a rabbies vaccine several years ago.

Rabies vaccination can be painful at the best of times I believe, I would still prefer it to the disease.

FintanMcluskey

charlie14 wrote: »

It is the case, and again the figures you provided yourself prove it.

Ill try explain in a different way

Sweden have a death rate of 0.21 % of the over 65 population

Ireland have a death rate of 0.25% of the over 65 population

Arghus

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

And since you're so keen on the science, have a read of this and tell me if you think it was science or politics?

https://www.narcolepsy.org.uk/resources/pandemrix-narcolepsy

During the Swine Flu epidemic of 2009/10 the vaccine Pandemrix was given to six million people in the UK, to high-risk groups, including children, with asthma, diabetes and heart disease. The vaccine had been approved by the European Medicines Agency for use across the EU, despite minimal clinical trials. The manufacturer, GlaxoSmithKline, was given an indemnity by the UK government. Some 850,000 vaccinations were given to children aged between 6 months and 16 years.

Pandemrix caused narcolepsy
The UK Health Protection Agency (now Public Health England) undertook a major study of 4- to 18-year-olds and found that around one in every 55,000 jabs led to narcolepsy.

Not to take things too off topic but you're using this example to say something about the potential dangers of vaccines? A vaccine that led to problems in one of every fifty five thousand doses?

If those are the odds sign me up!

charlie14

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Charile you dont understand.

Over 65s are no safer in Ireland than Sweden. Do you understand why that statement is correct?

Do you understand even the basic principle of mathematics ?
Comparing Sweden`s over 65 deaths to Ireland on HSE figures, Sweden has 62% more deaths in that age group than Ireland

All things being equal then if HIQA`s higher number of 1,200 overall is correct then deaths of over 65 are 2.4 times higher.

FintanMcluskey

charlie14 wrote: »

Do you understand even the basic principle of mathematics ?
Comparing Sweden`s over 65 deaths to Ireland on HSE figures, Sweden has 62% more deaths in that age group than Ireland

All things being equal then if HIQA`s higher number of 1,200 overall is correct then deaths of over 65 are 2.4 times higher.

It appears you dont understand how population adjustment affects death rate calculations.

Sweden have over 3 times the population in the age group we are discussing

nw1dqsv7amx026

charlie14 wrote: »

With the death rate higher then it is only logical to assume that proportionately more of those vulnerable have died in Sweden than Ireland.
The problem with herd immunity for this virus is that there is no evidence of it being acquired naturally. Even for those already infected we do not know to what degree, if any, what the level is or for how long it lasts.
For now the best protection for the vulnerable is to keep the numbers down and where there are outbreaks rapid test, trace and quarantine.

Ok, and what of a vaccine is not effective. What then?
Or how long do we wait?

charlie14

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Charile you dont understand.

Over 65s are no safer in Ireland than Sweden. Do you understand why that statement is correct?

All age groups were safer in Ireland for the simple reason Sweden has to date 62% more deaths.

Boggles

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

What about the scenario I described. Any chance you could address that?

That Sweden will get herd immunity naturally?

Pretty sure they aren't even harping that folly anymore.

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charlie14 wrote: »

All age groups were safer in Ireland for the simple reason Sweden has to date 62% more deaths.

I would assume all age groups in Ireland are at less risk of dying from covid 19.

But I would also assume that cancers are being missed, treatments delayed and people avoiding medical treatment.
I would also assume that there is increased social and economic costs.

So the question remains, is the Irish approach sustainable over 2 years?

FintanMcluskey

Bit cynical wrote: »

Further to an earlier chart in this post, I wanted to see if one set of data stood out from the other when intermingled. Since the age brackets overlap for Sweden and Ireland we can combine them in one plot:


Data points alternate between Ireland and Sweden. Looking at the chart, it is very hard to tell which data point is Ireland and which is Sweden; they fit together very well. There is just one point at age 55 (representing the 50 to 60 age bracket) which comes from Sweden. It is higher than it should be for a good fit but only just.

[Edit: I think the point at age 75 (also Sweden) is slightly lower, again only just, for a good fit. This corresponds to the observation made in the earlier post, that at 75 or thereabouts you are slightly better off in Sweden.]

The conclusion from this is that whatever age you are, you have pretty much the same chance of succumbing to Covid-19 whether you are in Ireland or Sweden, other things being equal.

charlie14 wrote: »

All age groups were safer in Ireland for the simple reason Sweden has to date 62% more deaths.

Im not going to be able to assist any further in your misguided understanding of statistics.

The post above is further confirmation of the fact a citizen is just as safe in Sweden as a citizen in Ireland

Greyian

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Ill try explain in a different way

Sweden have a death rate of 0.21 % of the over 65 population

Ireland have a death rate of 0.25% of the over 65 population

0.21% of the over 60 population in Sweden, not of the over 65.

Using the figures above, it would be fairer to take half the deaths and half the population from the 60-69 age group from Sweden, which would put the deaths for over 65s at 5306 (197, which is half of the 394 for 60-69, + 1236+2384+1489), with a population of 2079538 (554219, which is half of 1108438, +989013+436679+99627), which would give a death rate of 0.255% (compared to Ireland's 0.257%), which would suggest death rates of over 65s have been almost identical between the 2 countries relative to population size for those age groups.

However, if we were to also include estimates that we have overstated our death toll, possibly by as much as ~35%, while excess death figures for Sweden seem to closely match with the figures they have provided for Covid deaths (it seems they have perhaps underestimated by a few percent), means it is entirely possible that Ireland's death rate for over 65s is considerably lower than for the same demographic in Sweden.

nw1dqsv7amx026

Boggles wrote: »

That Sweden will get herd immunity naturally?

Pretty sure they aren't even harping that folly anymore.

They never did actually, but people assumed that was their approach.

What they did say was that their approach is sustainable.

I believe based on the falling deaths there that they may get both.

FintanMcluskey

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

I would assume all age groups in Ireland are at less risk of dying from covid 19.

Why do you think this?

charlie14

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

Ok, and what of a vaccine is not effective. What then?
Or how long do we wait?

There are a number of vaccines in final trials and some others about to begin trials. When we see the results from those we will know more..
Other than that if the Swedish experiment has shown anything it`s that naturally acquired antibodies are not going to beat this virus anytime soon either through herd immunity.

nw1dqsv7amx026

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Why do you think this?

Because the virus has been suppressed in Ireland using drastic and unsustainable methods.

I'm sure if we continue lock down, there will also be much less death from flu.

But I don't agree with this policy and I believe the Swedish approach is correct.

nw1dqsv7amx026

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

Because the virus has been suppressed in Ireland using drastic and unsustainable methods.

I'm sure if we continue lock down, there will also be much less death from flu.

But I don't agree with this policy and I believe the Swedish approach is correct.

If you prohibit ownership of cars, close the roads or reduce the national speed limit to 30kph then road deaths will fall.