Sweden avoiding lockdown

FintanMcluskey

Greyian wrote: »

0.21% of the over 60 population in Sweden, not of the over 65.

Using the figures above, it would be fairer to take half the deaths and half the population from the 60-69 age group from Sweden, which would put the deaths for over 65s at 5306 (197, which is half of the 394 for 60-69, + 1236+2384+1489), with a population of 2079538 (554219, which is half of 1108438, +989013+436679+99627), which would give a death rate of 0.255% (compared to Ireland's 0.257%), which would suggest death rates of over 65s have been almost identical between the 2 countries relative to population size for those age groups.

However, if we were to also include estimates that we have overstated our death toll, possibly by as much as ~35%, while excess death figures for Sweden seem to closely match with the figures they have provided for Covid deaths (it seems they have perhaps underestimated by a few percent), means it is entirely possible that Ireland's death rate for over 65s is considerably lower than for the same demographic in Sweden.

We can use the excess deaths in the calculations when its confirmed at the end of year.

But the calculation's you have preformed is the most accurate comparison of how a country has protected its citizen's.

Its utterly pointles to to say Sweden has 62% more death's thus has been a failure without making adjustments for the vulnerable population

nw1dqsv7amx026

charlie14 wrote: »

There are a number of vaccines in final trials and some others about to begin trials. When we see the results from those we will know more..
Other than that if the Swedish experiment has shown anything it`s that naturally acquired antibodies are not going to beat this virus anytime soon either through herd immunity.

And how long do you think we should wait?

How long should the kids stay out of school?

What if Swedish deaths continue to fall to a number less than ours?

charlie14

Greyian wrote: »

0.21% of the over 60 population in Sweden, not of the over 65.

Using the figures above, it would be fairer to take half the deaths and half the population from the 60-69 age group from Sweden, which would put the deaths for over 65s at 5306 (197, which is half of the 394 for 60-69, + 1236+2384+1489), with a population of 2079538 (554219, which is half of 1108438, +989013+436679+99627), which would give a death rate of 0.255% (compared to Ireland's 0.257%), which would suggest death rates of over 65s have been almost identical between the 2 countries relative to population size for those age groups.

However, if we were to also include estimates that we have overstated our death toll, possibly by as much as ~35%, while excess death figures for Sweden seem to closely match with the figures they have provided for Covid deaths (it seems they have perhaps underestimated by a few percent), means it is entirely possible that Ireland's death rate for over 65s is considerably lower than for the same demographic in Sweden.

The problem is they do not match closely. Excess death in Sweden end of June were 9,500 compared to last year. Their Covid-19 death at the time were 5,500.

FintanMcluskey

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

Because the virus has been suppressed in Ireland using drastic and unsustainable methods.

Im not convinced Ireland surpressed it any great amount with the drastic and unsustainable lockdown.

nw1dqsv7amx026

charlie14 wrote: »

There are a number of vaccines in final trials and some others about to begin trials. When we see the results from those we will know more..
Other than that if the Swedish experiment has shown anything it`s that naturally acquired antibodies are not going to beat this virus anytime soon either through herd immunity.

On your last point re antibodies, that is not totally true.
Not everybody who was infected is showing dedectable antibodies. But that is not the only part of the immune system that fights pathogens.

I would guess that any vaccine would need an annual dose.

Spiderman0081

Many politicians around the world will do whatever it takes to stay in power, which is the same in Sweden.
The main difference here is that from day one they did not cave to the pressure of what was politically, the safest thing to do, but reacted as best they could to the science.
Mistakes have been made in Sweden. They are learning from those mistakes and the fact that they from an early stage of this pandemic, tried weighing the long term health effects of keeping millions of healthy people confined, to a hit and hope lockdown curveball is important.
The lockdown in Ireland was not a well thought out plan, but a hope for the best reaction fueled by political motives and terrifying graphs which were not based on fact or reality. What happened to flattening the curve? Those words were repeated again and again until the curve was flattened. It’s now a thing of the past replaced by the importance of wearing face masks and keeping pubs closed.
Once you go down the rabbit hole of taking the most basic of human rights away from people in a western country, its near impossible to climb out without admitting your failings and changing the plan.
Swedish people who were not in care homes have passed away due to covid because of the lack of a lockdown here. I don’t doubt that. But what if many of those contracted the virus while at a park visiting loved ones for example, knowing full well the risks involved, that too has to be taken into account.
Compared to other Nordic countries Sweden looks bad, but not as much when compared to other countries in Europe. But it’s important to remember the large population of migrants that live and work here. They are over represented for covid deaths in relation to the size of their communities and unfortunately over represented in those who spread the virus in the care homes. Very unfortunate.
FHM has stated again and again that tougher measures should have been taken although nothing like that of Ireland. FHM’s plan was to weigh the negatives of a lockdown against that of the virus and work from that. Potential suicide increases was one of the main talking points from early on when the lockdown was being debated. Violence in homes was being debated. The consequences on children by taking away the structured routines of school was a massive factor.

From what I’ve learned from listening to FHM’s daily briefings herd immunity would hopefully be a byproduct from avoiding a lockdown and not the sole goal of their plan.

nw1dqsv7amx026

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Im not convinced Ireland surpressed it any great amount with the drastic and unsustainable lockdown.

This was always my problem with lockdown.
We flattened the curve.
But what now?
For me the virus must come back over the winter when our immune systems are less robust and we're all inside.

charlie14

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

And how long do you think we should wait?

How long should the kids stay out of school?

What if Swedish deaths continue to fall to a number less than ours?

I fail to see how Sweden`s number of deaths are going to fall lower than ours any time soon. The herd immunity hasn`t worked out and other than our pubs still being shut their restrictions are the same as ours.
Far as I know the plan is for kids to go back to school.
What is your alternative. Just let the virus run free and kill whoever it kills rather than attempt to control it ?

nw1dqsv7amx026

Spiderman0081 wrote: »

Many politicians around the world will do whatever it takes to stay in power, which is the same in Sweden.
The main difference here is that from day one they did not cave to the pressure of what was politically, the safest thing to do, but reacted as best they could to the science.
Mistakes have been made in Sweden. They are learning from those mistakes and the fact that they from an early stage of this pandemic, tried weighing the long term health effects of keeping millions of healthy people confined, to a hit and hope lockdown curveball is important.
The lockdown in Ireland was not a well thought out plan, but a hope for the best reaction fueled by political motives and terrifying graphs which were not based on fact or reality. What happened to flattening the curve? Those words were repeated again and again until the curve was flattened. It’s now a thing of the past replaced by the importance of wearing face masks and keeping pubs closed.
Once you go down the rabbit hole of taking the most basic of human rights away from people in a western country, its near impossible to climb out without admitting your failings and changing the plan.
Swedish people who were not in care homes have passed away due to covid because of the lack of a lockdown here. I don’t doubt that. But what if many of those contracted the virus while at a park visiting loved ones for example, knowing full well the risks involved, that too has to be taken into account.
Compared to other Nordic countries Sweden looks bad, but not as much when compared to other countries in Europe. But it’s important to remember the large population of migrants that live and work here. They are over represented for covid deaths in relation to the size of their communities and unfortunately over represented in those who spread the virus in the care homes. Very unfortunate.
FHM has stated again and again that tougher measures should have been taken although nothing like that of Ireland. FHM’s plan was to weigh the negatives of a lockdown against that of the virus and work from that. Potential suicide increases was one of the main talking points from early on when the lockdown was being debated. Violence in homes was being debated. The consequences on children by taking away the structured routines of school was a massive factor.

From what I’ve learned from listening to FHM’s daily briefings herd immunity would hopefully be a byproduct from avoiding a lockdown and not the sole goal of their plan.

I agree with a lot of this.

Especially, -

Once you go down the rabbit hole of taking the most basic of human rights away from people in a western country, its near impossible to climb out without admitting your failings and changing the plan.

FintanMcluskey

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

This was always my problem with lockdown.
We flattened the curve.
But what now?
For me the virus must come back over the winter when our immune systems are less robust and we're all inside.

At this point in time, with the numbers available re death rate etc, between Ireland and Sweden, the Swedish approach has been a complete success.

That may change, if 4000 excess deaths are all reclassified and proven as Covid deaths in Sweden, but right now I see no eveidence to suggest Ireland protected its citizens any better.

nw1dqsv7amx026

charlie14 wrote: »

I fail to see how Sweden`s number of deaths are going to fall lower than ours any time soon. The herd immunity hasn`t worked out and other than our pubs still being shut their restrictions are the same as ours.
Far as I know the plan is for kids to go back to school.
What is your alternative. Just let the virus run free and kill whoever it kills rather than attempt to control it ?

Daily, weekly or fortnightly death rate.

I don't believe the schools will stay open until Christmas. I hope I'm wrong.

I don't believe it can be stopped without herd immunity via vaccine or natural infection or by lock down.

Vaccine will be at least another year, so lock down is the preferred route here. So unless they close the borders and keep pu s and restaurants closed then it will still spread and vulnerable people will die.

Greyian

charlie14 wrote: »

The problem is they do not match closely. Excess death in Sweden end of June were 9,500 compared to last year. Their Covid-19 death at the time were 5,500.

Do you have a source for that?
Also, comparing against a single year is a poor way of doing it, using an average of a period of years, with lower and upper bounds is a far better method.

According to The Economist, between March 18th and June 23rd, Sweden had declared 5334 Covid deaths, while having excess death figures of 5322, so a discrepancy of 12 deaths, so small as to be meaningless in statistical terms.

According to the Financial Times, Sweden's excess death figures at June 23rd were 5500, which would mean they had understated Covid deaths by a little over 3%.

While the excess death figures released so far (as opposed to the Covid 19 figures) would suggest the death rate (relative to population size) of over 65s in Sweden is higher than Ireland (somewhere in the range of ~5-50%, with the upper bound being dependent on how accurate the HIQA RIP.ie analysis is, which should only be treated as indicative, not 100% accurate), I can't find any sources which suggest Sweden have understated their Covid deaths by ~4000 to the end of June 2020 (which would mean they would have an actual death rate of close to 1000 per million in the total population)

charlie14

Spiderman0081 wrote: »

From what I’ve learned from listening to FHM’s daily briefings herd immunity would hopefully be a byproduct from avoiding a lockdown and not the sole goal of their plan.

That was the hope, if indeed not the total thinking behind the strategy.
It was based on modelling figures on antibodies, but the bottom fell out of that bucket with the antibody test results.

nw1dqsv7amx026

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

At this point in time, with the numbers available re death rate etc, between Ireland and Sweden, the Swedish approach has been a complete success.

That may change, if 4000 excess deaths are all reclassified and proven as Covid deaths in Sweden, but right now I see no eveidence to suggest Ireland protected its citizens any better.

Fintan, I will look further into your numbers when I get back near a pc. I'm on a phone only.
Could you explain this a little further?
Are you suggesting the Swedish death rate for covid is less that the published numbers?

nw1dqsv7amx026

charlie14 wrote: »

That was the hope, if indeed not the total thinking behind the strategy.
It was based on modelling figures on antibodies, but the bottom fell out of that bucket with the antibody test results.

Charlie, have you looked at other studies related to t-cells and corona viruses?
If what you just said turns out to be correct then this could go on for years and a vaccine could be problematic.

FintanMcluskey

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

Fintan, I will look further into your numbers when I get back near a pc. I'm on a phone only.
Could you explain this a little further?
Are you suggesting the Swedish death rate for covid is less that the published numbers?

No I was referring to Charlie saying Sweden had understaded Covid deaths and the 4000 excess deaths were unaccounted for, thus adding extra Covid death's to Sweden.

Now as your previous post said there is no evidence for this

charlie14

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

We can use the excess deaths in the calculations when its confirmed at the end of year.

But the calculation's you have preformed is the most accurate comparison of how a country has protected its citizen's.

Its utterly pointles to to say Sweden has 62% more death's thus has been a failure without making adjustments for the vulnerable population

Fintan, will you ever cop yourself on.
It is a fact that Sweden have at a minimum 62% more deaths. No amount of you jumping through hoops is going to change that.

Why this wait until the end of the year.

We know now that there are 4,000 excess deaths in Sweden over and above their reported Covid-19 deaths.
Surely you must have some explanation for that ?
Has there been another pandemic in Sweden similar to Covid-19 to account for that large number of deaths, in the same time frame, that I am unaware off?

nw1dqsv7amx026

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

No I was referring to Charlie saying Sweden had understaded Covid deaths and the 4000 excess deaths were unaccounted for, thus adding extra Covid death's to Sweden.

Now as a previous post said there is no evidence for this

There is a huge problem in every county in comparing the cause of deaths.
Even something like road deaths can be different. Do you include only those who died on the road, or in the hospital, or months later?
Or what about an accident that triggers a pre existing condition.
I was talking to a person from Belgium whose friend committed suicide. But he had corona virus at the time so is counted as a corona death there.

charlie14

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

Charlie, have you looked at other studies related to t-cells and corona viruses?
If what you just said turns out to be correct then this could go on for years and a vaccine could be problematic.

I have indeed, and the research I have read pointed more to t-cells in relation to a vaccine than them providing anything like the figure required for herd immunity.


So again what is your solution ?

FintanMcluskey

charlie14 wrote: »

Fintan, will you ever cop yourself on.
It is a fact that Sweden have at a minimum 62% more deaths. No amount of you jumping through hoops is going to change that.

Why this wait until the end of the year.

We know now that there are 4,000 excess deaths in Sweden over and above their reported Covid-19 deaths.
Surely you must have some explanation for that ?
Has there been another pandemic in Sweden similar to Covid-19 to account for that large number of deaths, in the same time frame, that I am unaware off?

Charlie, despite your inhability to understand statistics I'll try again, a citizen over 65 is no safer from Covid in Ireland than Sweden.

Sweden has 307% more vulnerable citizens than Ireland

Have you a link for the excess deaths

nw1dqsv7amx026

charlie14 wrote: »

We know now that there are 4,000 excess deaths in Sweden over and above their reported Covid-19 deaths.

Charlie apologies if you posted this before.
What is the source of you statement?

nw1dqsv7amx026

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Charlie, despite your inhability to understand statistics I'll try again, a citizen over 65 is no safer from Covid in Ireland than Sweden.

Sweden has 307% more vulnerable citizens than Ireland

Have you a link for the excess deaths

Probably a citizen is less likely to catch corona virus in Stockholm than any other comparable open city in the world.

charlie14

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

No I was referring to Charlie saying Sweden had understaded Covid deaths and the 4000 excess deaths were unaccounted for, thus adding extra Covid death's to Sweden.

Now as a previous post said there is no evidence for this

No direct evidence but it is a suspiciously high number that is 70% of reported Covid-19 deaths with no obvious explanation

nw1dqsv7amx026

charlie14 wrote: »

I have indeed, and the research I have read pointed more to t-cells in relation to a vaccine than them providing anything like the figure required for herd immunity.


So again what is your solution ?

My solution would have been to let the virus spread during the summer. If the hospitals looked like being overwhelmed then lock down incrementally. And keeping the vulnerable isolated.
So throttling the virus.

nw1dqsv7amx026

charlie14 wrote: »

No direct evidence but it is a suspiciously high number that is 70% of reported Covid-19 deaths with no obvious explanation

Again apologies if you posted this before.

What are your sources?

FintanMcluskey

charlie14 wrote: »

No direct evidence but it is a suspiciously high number that is 70% of reported Covid-19 deaths with no obvious explanation

Ok so using the current published figures a citizen over 65 in Sweden is no more likely to die of Covid than a citizen over 65 in Ireland.

I would consider Sweden to have protected its citizen's just as efficiently as Ireland

nw1dqsv7amx026

I know you guys disagree but please read a recent interview with Tegnell.

https://unherd.com/2020/07/swedens-anders-tegnell-judge-me-in-a-year/

I know the Swedes well and I trust them. I think he is being honest and his points are valid.

I really fear we could be having the same conversation in a year.

charlie14

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

Charlie apologies if you posted this before.
What is the source of you statement?

Total deaths in Sweden 2019 88,766.
Total deaths in Sweden 17th July 2020. 56,408
That would mean deaths for the first 6 month of 2019 at 44,383.
For the same period 2020 its around 53,500
9,500 greater. Reported Covid-19 deaths for that period are 5,500.

youandme13

https://www.rte.ie/amp/1154688/

There, a link for Sweden!

nw1dqsv7amx026

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

I know you guys disagree but please read a recent interview with Tegnell.

https://unherd.com/2020/07/swedens-anders-tegnell-judge-me-in-a-year/

I know the Swedes well and I trust them. I think he is being honest and his points are valid.

I really fear we could be having the same conversation in a year.

To add, I was in favour of their approach from the start but I started to doubt it a month or so ago. Their daily deaths were very high and not falling. Looking at the numbers now I can only conclude that they were correct.

I think we all agree that the numbers of infections are purely based on the criteria used to test and volume of tests. So back in March /April Id guess our numbers were huge but not detected.