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Sweden avoiding lockdown

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Comments

  • #4262
    StefanFal
    Registered Users Posts: 72 ✭✭StefanFal


    Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »
    I know you guys disagree but please read a recent interview with Tegnell.

    https://unherd.com/2020/07/swedens-anders-tegnell-judge-me-in-a-year/

    I know the Swedes well and I trust them. I think he is being honest and his points are valid.

    I really fear we could be having the same conversation in a year.

    Never trust a Swede. I’m living in Stockholm over 10 years now and I can assure you they are a sneaky dishonest shower.


  • #4263
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 15,213 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »
    My solution would have been to let the virus spread during the summer. If the hospitals looked like being overwhelmed then lock down incrementally. And keeping the vulnerable isolated.
    So throttling the virus.

    And what would you do if it spread rapidly and the hospitals ended up like Italy, over-run in a very short period of time ?


  • #4264
    nw1dqsv7amx026
    Closed Accounts Posts: 336 ✭✭nw1dqsv7amx026


    youandme13 wrote: »
    https://www.rte.ie/amp/1154688/

    There, a link for Sweden!

    The problem with this link is that it's a news article as opposed to a scientific paper or interview with a scientist. The journalist does not quote sources.
    Could be true but without a source you can't verify.

    There's not even the name of the journalist.


  • #4265
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 15,213 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »
    I know you guys disagree but please read a recent interview with Tegnell.

    https://unherd.com/2020/07/swedens-anders-tegnell-judge-me-in-a-year/

    I know the Swedes well and I trust them. I think he is being honest and his points are valid.

    I really fear we could be having the same conversation in a year.

    I`m afraid for me Tegnell lost all credibility when the first test results were so far off his modelling figures yet he still insisted his figures were correct.
    The second 50,000 test results showed he was not.


  • #4266
    nw1dqsv7amx026
    Closed Accounts Posts: 336 ✭✭nw1dqsv7amx026


    charlie14 wrote: »
    And what would you do if it spread rapidly and the hospitals ended up like Italy, over-run in a very short period of time ?


    The Swedish approach avoided this hapening.

    But in our case we could have gradually increased the lockdown, for example shutting pubs and large gatherings first.

    Could be only this combined with social distancing is all that was required for ireland to avoid the northern Italy situation.


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  • #4267
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 15,213 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »
    The problem with this link is that it's a news article as opposed to a scientific paper or interview with a scientist. The journalist does not quote sources.
    Could be true but without a source you can't verify.

    There's not even the name of the journalist.

    It has also been covered in the Swedish paper The Local SE. If there is a second wave that hits the country evenly the estimate from the Swedish Public Health Agency is for a further 5,800 deaths.


  • #4268
    nw1dqsv7amx026
    Closed Accounts Posts: 336 ✭✭nw1dqsv7amx026


    charlie14 wrote: »
    I`m afraid for me Tegnell lost all credibility when the first test results were so far off his modelling figures yet he still insisted his figures were correct.
    The second 50,000 test results showed he was not.

    Oh come on, a model is just that. All the models have so many assumptions to make then useless.
    Have you looked at how NPHET calculate the r value.


  • #4269
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,464 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    charlie14 wrote: »
    And what would you do if it spread rapidly and the hospitals ended up like Italy, over-run in a very short period of time ?

    Demographics meant it would be unlikely to have a repeat of what happened in Northern Italy in Ireland.

    The region in northern Italy that had overcrowding issues had an elderly population, one of the oldest in Europe, of 10m in an area the size of Munster.


  • #4270
    nw1dqsv7amx026
    Closed Accounts Posts: 336 ✭✭nw1dqsv7amx026


    FintanMcluskey wrote: »
    Demographics meant it would be unlikely to have a repeat of what happened in Northern Italy in Ireland.

    The region in northern Italy that had overcrowding issues had an elderly population, one of the oldest in Europe, of 10m in an area the size of Munster.

    Not just demographics but social norms on Italy.


  • #4271
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 15,213 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »
    The Swedish approach avoided this hapening.

    But in our case we could have gradually increased the lockdown, for example shutting pubs and large gatherings first.

    Could be only this combined with social distancing is all that was required for ireland to avoid the northern Italy situation.

    We asked people to social distance here before the lockdown and not have large gatherings in pubs, clubs and public spaces. All were jammed the weekend before lockdown.


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  • #4272
    nw1dqsv7amx026
    Closed Accounts Posts: 336 ✭✭nw1dqsv7amx026


    Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »
    Oh come on, a model is just that. All the models have so many assumptions to make then useless.
    Have you looked at how NPHET calculate the r value.

    Nobody knows how contagious or how fatal this disease is.
    How can you model that?


  • #4273
    nw1dqsv7amx026
    Closed Accounts Posts: 336 ✭✭nw1dqsv7amx026


    charlie14 wrote: »
    We asked people to social distance here before the lockdown and not have large gatherings in pubs, clubs and public spaces. All were jammed the weekend before lockdown.

    Yes and the day the schools were closed, hse advice if you travelled from Italy was carry on if you feel fine.
    I don't have a lot of sympathy for the pubs.


  • #4274
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 15,213 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    FintanMcluskey wrote: »
    Demographics meant it would be unlikely to have a repeat of what happened in Northern Italy in Ireland.

    The region in northern Italy that had overcrowding issues had an elderly population, one of the oldest in Europe, of 10m in an area the size of Munster.

    Quarter of our population is in Dublin.


  • #4275
    nw1dqsv7amx026
    Closed Accounts Posts: 336 ✭✭nw1dqsv7amx026


    charlie14 wrote: »
    Quarter of our population is in Dublin.

    Yes but we don't have multiple generations living together.


  • #4276
    thereitisgone
    Registered Users Posts: 436 ✭✭thereitisgone


    StefanFal wrote: »
    Never trust a Swede. I’m living in Stockholm over 10 years now and I can assure you they are a sneaky dishonest shower.

    I Have lived in Finland now for 18 years so you probably know what i think


  • #4277
    nw1dqsv7amx026
    Closed Accounts Posts: 336 ✭✭nw1dqsv7amx026


    Look its extremely contagious and dangerous to certain people.
    Less dangerous than swine flu but more dangerous that the annual flu.

    The point is that our approach is not sustainable long term. And I believe we will be living with this long term.


  • #4278
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 15,213 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »
    Oh come on, a model is just that. All the models have so many assumptions to make then useless.
    Have you looked at how NPHET calculate the r value.

    If Tegnell is so honest and trust worthy then why was he defending his model when actual tests results showed how wrong he was ?


  • #4279
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,464 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    charlie14 wrote: »
    Quarter of our population is in Dublin.

    Its not the oldest in Europe.

    The age profile of the population is directly correlated to death rate, certainly in Europe from what I see


  • #4280
    nw1dqsv7amx026
    Closed Accounts Posts: 336 ✭✭nw1dqsv7amx026


    charlie14 wrote: »
    If Tegnell is so honest and trust worthy then why was he defending his model when actual tests results showed how wrong he was ?

    I didnt see that.

    Btw you still havent given me the link to 4000 extra deaths :)


  • #4281
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 15,213 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »
    Yes but we don't have multiple generations living together.

    Neither do Sweden and half their households are single occupancy. On that basis alone their number should have been lower.


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  • #4282
    nw1dqsv7amx026
    Closed Accounts Posts: 336 ✭✭nw1dqsv7amx026


    charlie14 wrote: »
    Neither do Sweden and half their households are single occupancy. On that basis alone their number should have been lower.

    Their immigrant populations do. And there are significant immigrant populations in Stockholm and Gotenborg.

    But, their deaths are lower than Italy???


  • #4283
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 15,213 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »
    I didnt see that.

    Btw you still havent given me the link to 4000 extra deaths :)


    I gave you the numbers. If you do not believe them do your own calculation and let me know what figure for excess deaths over and above Covid-19 you get.

    Statista. Sweden death rate 2010 - 2020.


  • #4284
    nw1dqsv7amx026
    Closed Accounts Posts: 336 ✭✭nw1dqsv7amx026


    charlie14 wrote: »
    If Tegnell is so honest and trust worthy then why was he defending his model when actual tests results showed how wrong he was ?

    Listen, have a read of the interview.

    You don't have to agree with any of it but at least read it.
    I've watched numerous Dr John Campbell YouTube videos and he's 100% Pro lockdown.


  • #4285
    nw1dqsv7amx026
    Closed Accounts Posts: 336 ✭✭nw1dqsv7amx026


    charlie14 wrote: »
    I gave you the numbers. If you do not believe them do your own calculation and let me know what figure for excess deaths over and above Covid-19 you get.

    Statista. Sweden death rate 2010 - 2020.

    Apologies again if I missed it. I'm on a phone screen.
    Can you paste the link and your calculation. I will read it and tell you my opinion.


  • #4286
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 15,213 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »
    Their immigrant populations do. And there are significant immigrant populations in Stockholm and Gotenborg.

    But, their deaths are lower than Italy???


    They are practically neck and neck/
    Italy 58.2 Sweden 56.1


  • #4287
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 15,213 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »
    Apologies again if I missed it. I'm on a phone screen.
    Can you paste the link and your calculation. I will read it and tell you my opinion.


    I cannot link them from here. But a simple search will find them.


  • #4288
    nw1dqsv7amx026
    Closed Accounts Posts: 336 ✭✭nw1dqsv7amx026


    charlie14 wrote: »
    I cannot link them from here. But a simple search will find them.

    Honestly, we have opposing views and I'm engaging with you fairly. History could agree with your view point.

    If you make a claim you need to back it up with a reputable source.
    Otherwise there's no credibility to the statement and its just an opinion.


  • #4289
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 15,213 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »
    Honestly, we have opposing views and I'm engaging with you fairly. History could agree with your view point.

    If you make a claim you need to back it up with a reputable source.
    Otherwise there's no credibility to the statement and its just an opinion.


    I already gave you the source. Statista. Sweden death rate 2010 - 2020.


  • #4290
    Spiderman0081
    Registered Users Posts: 439 ✭✭Spiderman0081


    Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »
    Not just demographics but social norms on Italy.
    And the fact that Northern Italy is one of the main trade hubs in Europe for businesses in China and the rest of the world.


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  • #4291
    nw1dqsv7amx026
    Closed Accounts Posts: 336 ✭✭nw1dqsv7amx026


    charlie14 wrote: »
    I already gave you the source. Statista. Sweden death rate 2010 - 2020.

    Ok, we have a different way of working. I would cite the source and quote the exact reference.

    You mean this :-
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/

    And does this report say that Sweden had 4,000 excess deaths on top of the reported covid deaths? So, 9000 extra deaths compared to other years.


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